mcgufcm

I'll bet against Holloway any day. He may be a nice kid. I don't know him, but his game is awful. He may have the worst first step on a small guard that I can remember. He almost never gets his shoulders by a defender. Zero straight line explosion, which is also why he plays so far below the rim. Compared to guys like Harper or McCormick or even Cooper, Holloway lacks any explosiveness. That means he has to set up any kind of dribble threat with his shot, but he struggled all year with his release point and footwork. He couldn't handle guys in his lap, and no one backed off because he couldn't get by them.

Philon is a better player, but they didn't outrecruit us for Philon. He left after Wes left and when we landed Aden (at the time, no one knew he kinda sucks). He signed with KU. They recruited over him, and he left. Bama picked him up. By all accounts, we were more focused on a seasoned backup than a true freshman. It's a weird circumstance, but in this case, Bama landing a guy really had nothing to do with us. We weren't recruiting him at that point.

I’m fairly certain King is wrong. I believe the second tiebreaker is winning percentage against 1, against 2, etc. If that’s the case, UTk losses won’t matter. Both have a .000 winning percentage. Same winning percentage against USCe and UK. Bama’s win over UF would give them the tiebreaker. 

On 12/22/2023 at 10:08 AM, TexasTiger said:

I remember that happening— can’t remember who the kickers were.

Pretty sure it was Phillip Yost and Duval. Yost was the KO guy. 

The whole NIL/scholarship thing is a little more complicated. It's definitely do-able, but it takes a substantial NIL package to match.

So, according to the latest info from the University, tuition/fees for in-state students is $6,268 per semester (including the summer term). Generally football players attend all three semesters. You would need an NIL package of just under $19k + the tax bill on that income. Then, if you're really replicating the value of a scholarship, scholarship players still receive cost of attendance stipends directly from the University. For Auburn, that value is approximately $11,300 per semester (for housing, food, and miscellaneous costs as set by the University). So that's another $22k+ (again, you'd need to add taxes to match the value).

The NIL rate for a scholarship player fluctuates by position. For positions with lower demand, I've generally $3-4k per month. So that's $35-50k for the year.

In other words, if you're turning a scholarship guy into a PWO but trying to give him dollar-for-dollar equivalence, you'd need to start that guy at around $110k in NIL funds to offset the tax implications. That would be difficult to do on a broad scale. 

Love what I'm reading and hearing with some of our targets.

I will say, there is almost no chance we sign Deion Smith. He played high school ball at prep school in Jackson. He tried to transfer to Ole Miss from LSU but didn't have the grades. Coming out of JUCO, he's going to Ole Miss. The only way that doesn't happen is if Lane leaves, which seems very unlikely right now. We have a better shot at signing both Cam Coleman and Ryan Williams than we do of signing Smith.

On 9/5/2023 at 8:33 AM, Mikey said:

Nobody anticipated what Rivers would become. At the time, the N.C. State coaches expected Rivers to redshirt a year as a QB, then he'd realize he wasn't college QB material and willingly convert to TE. This according to an interview with one of their coaches several years ago.

It's hard to blame AU for missing on Rivers's potential when every other team in America also missed it.

Not to mention we signed a first round QB in the same class.

On 9/2/2023 at 10:59 PM, LPTiger said:

Agree.    Didn't TCU throw 3 interceptions inside Colorado's 10 yard line?

Yeah, but one of those INTs wasn't the traditional "throwing a pick"... Travis Hunter made one of the best plays you'll see this year. That's truly "forcing" the turnover. Prime has been a major part of his development. H/t to Hunter (first and foremost) and Prime because that guy is crazy good. Absolutely a WR1, but he's much better at CB.

8 minutes ago, ellitor said:

@mcgufcm but has family in B'Ham, hence the connection.

I know, but he's definitely still "out of area" for Auburn. Plenty of guys in other parts of the country have people in Alabama or Mississippi or wherever, but Auburn has signed 3ish guys (?) from California in the last 25 years.

On 8/29/2023 at 1:20 PM, Zeek said:

Quarterback - Thorne could declare early and/or at least one of Ashford/Geriner/Brown could transfer out

Running Back - Hunter could declare early and our bubble guys like Jackson and Jones could dip out.

Wide Receiver - Ja'Varrius, Mardner, Hooks, and Shorter will all graduate. Moore and Malcolm could realistically transfer if they don't get a lot of reps this year.

Tight End - Deal, Fromm, and Frazier will graduate. Fairweather could legitimately declare early for the NFL.

Offensive Line - Irvin, Britton, Stutts, and Jones are all graduating. Wade is legitimately a possible early exit candidate. 

Defensive Line - Mosiah Nasili-Kite, Marcus Harris, and Lawrence Johnson will all graduate. Justin Rogers needs to step up or we might part ways, Zykeivous Walker could easily walk if he doesn't see a decent amount of time, and we already need more talent here.

Jack - Elijah McAllister will graduate. Sings and McLeod will both hopefully return for their senior years.

Linebacker - We lose Nixon III, Steiner, and Levant. Gordon might not be an SEC talent and Woodyard could transfer if he doesn't see the field much.

Cornerback- Pritchett, James, Hart, and Simpson are all gone. Scott could legitimately end up jumping to the NFL early with a good enough season. 

Safety - Puckett is gone. We return a lot of talent here. I could see Gilbert possibly dipping out.

LS & K - Reed and McPherson will still be here

P - we need to replace the graduating Chapman
 

It's helpful to keep turnover in mind, but there are a LOT of unknowns on this list. For example, at Safety, both Simp and Zion redshirted in 2019. Both guys graduate this year, but due to Covid, both guys have the option of returning next year. They have effectively played 21, 22, and this year. TBD on what they will do. At DL, Marcus Harris is in the same boat. Same for Steiner at LB. Same thing for Luke Deal, Tyler Fromm, and Brandon Frazier at TE (meaning, you may not lose anyone from that room). Same for Javy at WR.

All that to say, Covid is still playing havoc with roster management. We honestly won't even know what holes we need to fill until after meeting with guys after the season to see what they plan to do. We're going to hit the portal hard again, but I doubt it'll be quite the numbers we saw this year.

12 hours ago, cbo said:

Wait, you mean SEC schools can pull outside the region when the local class is down?

I mean, you say this like we're not doing it already. DeAndre Carter plays for Mater Dei in California.

I guess I'm confused why people are so down on OL recruiting under the current group. Even if we ignore the transfers (count me in the camp that, until rules change, transfers are not just a way to rebound but the best way to fill holes year-on-year), Freeze and Thornton have outstripped Gus and Harsin. It's not all that close.

Izavion Miller (OT) and Connor Lew (C) are guys capable on contributing immediately and likely multi-year starters
Senda (OT/OG) looks like another near lock to contribute soon but not likely as a true freshman
Wedin (OT), Joiner (C/OG), and Tyler Johnson (OT) look like exactly the kind of developmental prospects that we failed to take under Gus. That especially true when it comes to Tackles.

If we add DeAndre Carter (viewed as another very high-end prospect in the Miller/Lew category) and supplement 2-3 other developmental guys, that's already better than what we've seen in the past. I expect JUCO names will emerge. JUCO is being under-recruited right now, but you won't know those names until later in the fall. If we manage to flip a guy like Echols or Taumua, it's not even close.

We missed on Casey Poe. We missed on Daniel Calhoun. We missed on Kalil House, Taumua, and Echols (although we've continued to stay on those guys). We stopped pursuing McRoy. We were never really in it for some others. Even so, if we add four HS/JUCO guys this year (which is what I expect), that will be 10 in two years. Those are unheard of numbers in Gus (10 in his last three years combined) or Harsin (four total in his two year). That's ignoring the quality of the prospects signed, which also tips toward the current regime.

If you add the portal, it clearly shows a coaching staff focused on addressing a major need and managing the roster better, which means you cannot just rush out and sign 12 HS guys in two years.

We just suck at Hoover. Nothing new here. I hate (hate hate) losing to Bama, but getting our pitching rested and ready may be for the best at this point. We need Herbie back. We need Vail to get healthy. We're already stretched there, and I'm not sure a long stay in Hoover was going to help. At all. We also need Bobby and Cooper to give us something. 2/20 with 8 Ks creates a big hole in the middle of the lineup. I think the time off will help them a lot more than continuing to scuffle in the SEC tournament.

This team fought back into position to host a Regional. That mini-tournament matters a LOT more than this one.

Going before that. Blake Countess was essential to our defense while here. Jack Driscoll was a good get from UMass. There have been plenty of non-SEC transfers to succeed at Auburn and even more that have succeeded elsewhere.

That would be 32 total. I think that’s light. I expect to be between 35-40 newcomers. 

On 11/29/2022 at 5:23 PM, aubie57 said:

Columbus

Cool. I’m from Starkville. Too old to know Luke, but my mom was a pediatric NP (retired now). She used to see him. 

47 minutes ago, msza said:

You're right, one violation for him for failing to oversee a program that got hit with 15 Level 1 violations. 

And now that he's showed up to AU an admin on this site is baselessly accusing others including our own former HC Gus of the same poor conduct.

Just to be clear, you're still being a bit misleading. A significant number of those Level 1s occurred under Coach Nutt. That included penalties for two staffers helping a group of players cheat on the ACT and either lying in interviews or refusing to provide information (both of which are independent violations).

In addition, you claim that the NCAA opinion is proof that Freeze couldn't recruit without cheating, but that decision involved a finding of paying ONE player... a guy who didn't sign at Ole Miss. Zero findings that payments were made to Tunsil or Treadwell or Nkemdiche, etc. So if we're just taking what the NCAA says and not making assumptions, it's kinda proof that Freeze did recruit stars without cheating.

54 minutes ago, msza said:

Thank you and yes of course you are welcome to make baseless accusations against others in an attempt to normalize Hugh's multiple violations.

He didn't have multiple violations. Hugh Freeze had one violation for failure to monitor his staff. Nothing else.

13 hours ago, aubie57 said:

Luke is a local kid for me. I know him and his family, I’d just like to see him at Auburn because of that. 

You from Starkville?

Throw at will? Have you watched our secondary? DJ James may be the best cover guy in the SEC. Slotting Pritchett at CB2 has been a huge step up. Moving Simp back to FS has been a revolution for coverage. Rewatch the game last year. Brian Robinson was by far their best offense. I expect the same for Gibbs and McClendon. Bama should win. They have more talent and home field, but I'll be very surprised if they're able to throw it all over the yard with those WRs against this secondary. Their passing game will focus on backs and TEs.

Until Chizik, I’m not sure that was true. Bowden had six years and ran himself off by pulling a Jimbo at FSU and gutting the program by failing to recruit. Then Tubs had a decade. Tried to fire him. True. But didn’t. Chizik was the first to get a short run, and he earned it with the worst team in school history. And by hiring Loeffler. That’s a fireable offense. 

I already said he's going to get fired for failing to replace these guys. He'll lose his job for it, and he'll deserve it.

But that doesn't change what the quality or quantity Malzahn failed to recruit, and it was mostly the offensive line. We threw 38 passes. Penn State was credited with 36 (!!!!!!) QB hurries. That would be unbelievable, except that it absolutely matched the eye test of what we saw. 

Go check the film on the 3rd down play where Finley threw it to Shed instead of Moore or Hunter (who were coming open for a TD). Nose Tackle was left unblocked. TJ just threw it where he could to avoid a sack. Or check the film on the sack on Ashford when we were inside the 10. Unblocked blitzer on the A gap. Never had a chance. Or rewatch Finley's best throw to Javy Johnson. Unblocked rusher runs past Stutts immediately. It was a great play by Finley to avoid the sack, keep his eyes up, and make that touch pass. The examples of free rushers and missed blocks by the OL is limited only by the number of snaps we took on the day.

The QBs aren't great. The WRs aren't great. But the OL is next level bad. Not even worth comparison between the position groups. 

On 9/16/2022 at 9:23 AM, Mikey said:

If they are on scholarship on an SEC roster, they are by definition SEC-quality players. I obliged you by using your parameters. Now you don't like the results. Oh well.......

 

If you watched that PSU game… I’ll rest my case about whether they are SEC caliber. Imagine the guys that can’t beat out our starters. 

@Mikey, any more thoughts on the quality and quantity that Gus left on the OL? Harsin is gonna get run out of town because he didn’t devote every resource to replacing Gus’ guys. But they were never good enough.

If we convince Keondre Jones and Kam Stutts to come back next year, we may yet ward off OL Armageddon. Those two plus Tate Johnson would give us a solid interior line to build around. But as noted, that’s only possible because Stutts gets an extra year.