StatTiger

Separately, each of those 4 goals doesn’t seem difficult to obtain. The obvious key is doing all four during the same game and doing all four consistently.

I have no doubt Hugh Freeze and Philip Montgomery want better QB play in 2023, but Freeze has "team" oriented goals for improvement. Yes, QB play can influence the outcome of games, but simply fielding a better team overall will impact the win percentage. Auburn was horrible against the run during 2022, and the lack of DL rotation played a major role in the decline. Run defense allowed only 3.8 yards per rush during the first half but 5.3 yards during the second half. That issue is being addressed now with the goal of rotating 8-9 DL during a game. Consider the following... Since 1960, Auburn has compiled a 221-10-0 record (.957) when they accomplish the following during a game. 1) Rush for at least 125 yards, 2) Hold the opposition to under 200 yards rushing, 3) complete at least 50 percent of their passes, and 4) Average at least 7.0 yards per attempt. Drop the standards to the following... 1) Rush for at least 100-yards, 2) complete at least 45 percent of passes, 3) Average at least 6.5 yards per pass attempt, and 4) Hold the opponent to under 200-yards rushing. Auburn is 266-23-0 (.920). Average QB play + consistent run offense, and decent run defense can easily equate to becoming bowl eligible. Are these reasonable goals for 2023? I think so. Last year the pass offense reached the goal of 45% completion pct and 6.5 yards per pass attempt during 6 of 12 games. Auburn rushed for at least 101 yards in all six games BUT, allowed over 200-yards rushing during 3 of those 6 games. So... can Freeze-Montgomery improve the pass offense to 8 games with of 45% completion Pct and 6.5 yards per attempt? I think so because it would not require major improvement to reach that goal. Can the run defense give up only 1-2 two-hundred yard games instead of four? Auburn rushed for at least 100-yards during 10 of 12 games and I believe they can duplicate it during 2023. Auburn held 8 of 12 opponents to under 200-yards rushing. Improving the run defense to 10 of 12 games is not a big ask. From 2000-2019, Auburn allowed 200-yards rushing 2.5 times per season. During the last three seasons (2000-2022), Auburn allowed the opponent to rush for over 200-yards on 4 occasions each season. Having a better run defense in 2023 can make a major impact. I don't believe it is asking too much to expect the run defense to allow over 200 yards rushing only 2 times out of 12. The trend of accomplishing all four during the same game has been 39.3 percent from 1961-2022, or an average of 4-5 times per game. The 2022 team accomplished the feat only once. It has happened only 32 percent from 2018-2022, winning 80 percent of their games when they accomplished the feat. Can they do it five times in 2023? The 2006 team did it in 8 of 12 regular season games. That was a team not overwhelmingly talented that suffered through injuries to key starters but still won 11 of 13 games. I always thought that season was Tuberville's best "coaching" season. Auburn should win all four non-conference games in 2023. Even if they just maintain their win percentage in conference play the last five years, that is three additional wins and a 7-5 regular season. A slight improvement in pass offense and a more consistent run defense could result in 4 conference wins and an 8-4 regular season finish. Again, the coaching staff is working towards a better pass offense in 2023, but they are also striving in putting a better overall product on the field during year #1. Thoughts? SEC Comparison 2018-2022: SEC average for the last five years is reaching all four goals during the same game, 45.0 pct of the time, with a win pct of .857 when doing so. Auburn is currently 11th in the SEC.

I believe there were was only one they were prepared to offer but that fell through on the player’s part. There was a second that would have come if offered but no offer was made. I’m sure they were not just going to sign a body. I don’t expect there be a bunch of options when the portal reopens in May.

Observations and thoughts on the Quarterbacks: · I’ve enjoyed Hugh Freeze's transparency level regarding the team, especially at the quarterback position. Up to this point, the man has stated the offense is not close to being installed. There has been no separation among the top-3 quarterbacks, and some of that could be related to coaching. Not only are the QB's struggling but the WR's have not been on the same page when it comes to the RPO game. For now, the QB’s will continue to rotate and receive equal reps to learn the offense. · In the past, Coach Freeze has stated that “accuracy” is the No.1 priority, and the individual players are expected to possess this ability already. This makes sense since the NCAA limits the time coaches can spend with players, so the time spent on fundamentals will be limited. It's also the reason why we are seeing more QB's utilize personal trainers to work on their mechanics. The other consideration is that most players at this level (collegiate) develop good and bad habits, and the bad habits can be a challenge to overcome. This could benefit Finley and Geriner over Ashford. · Freeze commented on practice and real-time performances, utilizing Malik Willis and Bo Wallace as examples. Some players are average in practice but shine when the games are played. Some players are exceptional in the controlled practice environment but struggle when the lights come on. This could benefit a player like Robby Ashford. Speaking of Ashford, he cannot display his full capabilities in practice because contact is limited. We witnessed this with Cam Newton and Nick Marshall. Evaluating what Ashford can do in practice won’t reveal his full potential. Freeze at Liberty did not know what he had in Malik Willis until the season began. · The talk of adding another quarterback when the portal reopens remains a reality. It, however, does not mean that the 2023 QB1 isn’t already on the roster. Hugh Freeze stated it is his and his assistant’s responsibility to improve the roster and talent level every year through recruiting. The starter for 2023 could be Ashford, Finley, or Geriner, but if there is a capable QB in the portal who can provide quality depth, you sign him. It could also mean the portal transfer has an opportunity to be QB1. If a transfer QB is brought into the mix, I could see a current QB transferring out. · A starter won’t likely be named until August. I could see a similar situation much like 2022, where a starter is named for the season opener, but there is a plan in place to play No. 2. If this is the case, we will know there was limited separation between No. 1 and No. 2, and it won’t be worked out until the games are played. It is rarely advantageous for rotating quarterbacks during the season outside of injuries, but sometimes it cannot be prevented. · Regardless of who the starter is, we will see some level of improvement in the passing game. How much progress remains to be seen. The current staff possesses a better track record in developing a passing game than the previous staff, good news for those involved in the competition to be QB1. · A lot can change from now until the season opener, which means allowing the process to play out. As transparent as Hugh Freeze has been, he will update the process, and we will know more as time passes. Freeze said from the outset that he would be more demanding of the QB position than any other position because more is asked of them. So, when we hear Freeze is not satisfied, it doesn't mean there is no hope for the current prospects. It could mean they're not close to the level of perfection Freeze has established. It reminds me of Steve Spurrier and his quarterbacks at Florida. He once chewed out Terry Dean after he completed his 5th TD pass of the game. Dean was thrilled he tied a school record, but Spurrier was upset he threw the TD pass to the wrong WR. · The key, for now, is obtaining the most of what the coaches have to work with. QB1 this year might be different from the starter in 2024. We all know that an efficient passing game is a must to compete at a high level in the SEC and the Power-5 level. The reality might be that Auburn needs to be more talented in the QB room to reach that goal immediately. A solid running game and a consistent run defense with an improved passing game could be enough to win 7-8 games in a 13-game season. I am still excited about the future, which hasn’t been the case during the last 3-5 years.

How about now?

In light of Coach Freeze’s recent comments regarding the current status of the quarterbacks and the lack of talent on defensive line, it is clear he values the performance of the quarterback position and the ability to pressure the opposing quarterback. If we are to believe that efficient quarterback play is essential in winning at a high level, we should also assume pass defense is critical too. With this in mind, I researched the following numbers over the past ten seasons (2013-2022). From 2013-2022, 345 FBS teams finished the season with a pass offense ranked 65th or worse in efficiency and a pass defense ranked No. 65 or worse. Those 345 teams combined for a win percentage of .317. Only 46 of the 345 teams finished with a winning record (13.3 percent). 25 of the 345 teams came from the Southeastern Conference. Those 25 SEC teams combined for a win percentage of .352. Only 4 of the 25 SEC teams finished with a winning record (16 percent). From 2013-2022, 79 FBS teams finished the season with a top-30 pass efficient offense and a top-30 pass defense. Those 79 teams combined for a win percentage of .826. 77 of the 79 teams finished the season with a winning record (97.5 percent). 16 of the 79 teams were from the Southeastern Conference. The 16 SEC teams combined for a win percentage of .864. All 16 teams finished with a winning record. Alabama and Georgia accounted for 12 of the 16 teams. Auburn (2017) did it once and LSU appeared three times. Thoughts?

A history note... From 1992-2022, the top-6 impact players on offense at Auburn has broken down to the following: WR: 2.9 RB: 2.4 (Includes fullbacks) QB: .3 TE: .3 The breakdown suggests the strong possibility of five of the slots going to the WR and RB positions. This was the primary reason why I left Finley out of the top-6 because he is not likely to run or catch passes resulting in 7-10 impact plays. The odds are strong that Jarquez Hunter and Ja'Varrius Johnson make the top-6 for the third consecutive year if they remain healthy. If Ashford starts at QB or the starter is a DT QB, there is a strong possibility the starting QB will take up the third slot. My guess is that Camden Brown and Rivaldo Fairweather will make the top-6 in 2023. Brown showed plenty of potential last season in limited action and he has caught the attention of the current staff. Hugh Freeze likes big receivers with a great catch radius. Fairweather brings that to the table too along with 15.5 yards per reception on 54 collegiate receptions. During the last ten years, Auburn's TE's have averaged only 9.6 YPR and an impact play every 3.6 receptions. Fairweather has averaged an impact play every 2.1 receptions. He brings to the table, something no other TE on the roster can duplicate. History indicates there will likely be at least two RB's in the top 6, which is why I included Alston and Battie. Jeremiah Cobb could be in the mix if the coaches elect to play him as a true freshman. For now, the odds are he will RS in 2023 because 3 RB's normally address the bulk of the carries that go to the RB's. Cobb would have to be exceptional to steal one of those 3 slots or injuries have hit the position. Brian Battie has more 20+ yard runs that any of the RB's that will be available, and the Auburn staff really like his work ethic. The final slot to make up the top 6, could hinge on the starting QB. A pocket passer would likely mean the sixth slot going to a WR. A starting DT QB could mean the final slot going to another RB, especially if the running game clicks in 2023. Bottom line, it should be interesting to see how it all plays out. From 1992-2022, Auburn has won 80 percent of their games with at least 8 impact plays during a game and 85 percent when Auburn has more impact plays than the opposition. As bad as the offense was in 2022, the Tigers still finished at 26th nationally when it came to their ratio of generating impact plays. With 4 of the top-5 returning in 2023, it could establish a good foundation for the offense.

I would say no for now, simply because the starting QB won't be named for a while and certainly won't happen during spring camp. Should he be named the starter, I would agree at that point. When it comes to impact plays, it is the plays resulting in 15+ yards from running or receiving. Someone like Robby Ashford, could still be utilized in a situational role should he not be QB1 or even a position change. This gives him the chance to continue making an impact on offense. For Finley, it is likely QB1 or transfer. 2 cents

It will be a while before that decision is made and it certainly won’t come in spring practice.

How is it a sham if the list based on rushing yardage?

SOS in 2018 was 97th and 128th in 2019.

Here is a statistical snapshot of the improvement Hugh Freeze made during year #1 at Arkansas State, Ole Miss and Liberty. It is a snapshot of the team's national rankings the year before Freeze arrived and the impact he and his staff made during his first season on the job. Rankings shaded in green noted a top-25 finish. The difference column shaded in green, notes an improvement of at least 40 spots. The average improvement at Arkansas State was 26.4. Freeze and Ole Miss had an improvement of 32.5 and Liberty was an improvement by an average of 15.9. Of the 69 categories combined, his teams improved 77 percent of the categories. There is a very high probability, Auburn will show a major improvement in 2023 but the key will be sustaining that level of success.

Anything related to scoring is always vital when it comes to analyzing statistical data. Here is a note on scoring possessions when it comes to offense. During the 2010 season, Auburn ranked No. 6 nationally when it came to scoring possessions. The Tigers were ranked No. 14 during the 2013 season and No. 18 during 2014. The last time Auburn won the SEC-West, they were 26th nationally in scoring on 42 percent of their offensive possessions. There has been a gradual decline during the last five seasons under two different head coaches and four different offensive coordinators. 2018: 47th 2019: 53rd 2020: 55th 2021: 66th 2022: 93rd During the 2011 season, Hugh Freeze improved the Arkansas State offense from 54th to 35th. He improved Ole Miss from 115th in 2011 to 67th in 2012. He improved Liberty from 81st in 2018 to 32nd in 2019. His best offense in this category was 17th at Ole Miss during 2015 and 9th at Liberty during the 2020 season. Five of his ten teams at the FBS level finished 35th or better. From 2009-2022, teams that finished in the top-25 in scoring possessions won 75 percent of their games. The average percentage during this period is scoring on 37 percent of the possessions. The statistical goal is scoring on at least 33 percent with an average of 12-13 possessions per game. From 2000-2022, Auburn is 153-25 (86 percent) when scoring on at least 33 percent of their possessions.

Because eventually, you will have to coach them up to be successful. If it were all about recruiting, coordinators would not matter. Forget about "doing stuff"... just throw out a bunch of cash to the best talent and let them figure out how to win on Saturdays.

You're more than welcome.

2020 the most recent when he had two 1000-yard rushers at RB and UNC finished 15th in RZ TD pct.

Probably all for not… Derrick Nix at Ole Miss was offered a position slot which it was rumored to have been turned down. freeze upgraded the offer to be the OC and Nix is supposedly thinking it over.