StatTiger

3 hours ago, Viper said:

Yup you're right. Because Longo's offenses are awesome between the 20s, but suck in the red zone...

 

https://www.oxfordeagle.com/2018/12/12/phil-longos-departure-a-blessing-in-disguise-for-ole-miss/

Phil Longo did some good things for the Ole Miss offense. At times, it was electric and exciting, racking up over 500 yards of offense per game in the 2018 season. However, Longo’s system was often stagnant, rigid and ineffective when things mattered most. It’s what Longo didn’t do that could leave Ole Miss better suited without him.

while the offense was capable of racking up gaudy offensive numbers, it struggled tremendously at turning yards into points.

The same offense that rated 9th nationally in yards was just 35th nationally in points. Football Outsiders keeps a stat called OTF – essentially it records how good a team is at scoring points on drives in which they get at least one first down. Ole Miss was 84th in the nation in OTF. That’s a problem that goes much further than simply players failing to execute. It goes back to the offense’s scheme. Longo’s scheme.

Longo’s offense relies heavily on outside receivers running routes on a vertical plane.

This concept can work against some teams, most notably teams of lesser talent. Clearly it did “work”, look at the yardage numbers. They’re monstrous. But there’s two problems. Teams with better talent at corner – say LSU or Alabama – can play pump and run on the outside. They have the talent and athleticism defensively to cover these routes against the fantastic Rebel wideouts. Ta’amu had just 133 yards passing and completed just 32-percent of his throws against Alabama. Against LSU he threw for only 178 yards on just 50-percent passing.

Additionally, these vertical-plane routes struggle to work as effectively in the red-zone. Hence the scoring woes. When the field shrinks, there are less options for a defender to worry about. Corners don’t have to wonder if D.K. Metcalf is going to run by him deep on a go route. When options are limited, it’s easier to defend. The team needed to utilize more in-breaking routes, slants, pick-plays and misdirection looks ran by the best offenses in college basketball. The simple route tree that works in-between the twenties doesn’t work when the field shrinks.

Throughout SEC play, as the red-zone issue became more pronounced, Longo would continually say everything needs evaluated and looked at. He would say they need to change what they were doing. However, those route concepts consistently remained stagnant.

 

https://www.redcuprebellion.com/2018/12/12/18136854/mack-brown-north-carolina-offensive-coordinator-hire-phil-longo

It’s hard to argue against the overall numbers Longo’s Ole Miss offenses accumulated: in 2018, the Rebels ranked fifth nationally in yards per pass, seventh in yards per play and 12th in offensive S&P+.

But a more nuanced look at the numbers reveals a concerning trend: during his two year tenure, Longo racked up yards and points against overmatched opponents but routinely underwhelmed against top defenses. In 15 games against teams ranked outside the top 60 in defensive S&P+, Longo’s offense poured on eight yards per play and over 41 points per contest; in eight games against defenses inside the top 30, those numbers plummet to 4.9 yards per play and about 15 points per game.

Sure, any offense’s production will dip against top competition, but a disparity that large is significant. Huge outputs against bad defenses—like 40 points and 546 yards vs. Texas Tech or a 70-point, 826-yard explosion against Louisiana-Monroe—provide statistical cover for struggles against better conference teams.

But if Ole Miss wasn’t scoring from far out, it had trouble scoring at all. As the field shrank, so did the offense’s effectiveness: the Rebels rank 50th in points per trip inside opponents’ 40 yard line and just 59th in red zone scoring percentage.

Yup… I addressed that. A lack of quality RB’s hurts the most inside the red zone, where 63% of the plays are run plays. During seasons he had quality RB’s his red zone did not suck. 

13 minutes ago, zeroforwinger said:

Is he being rumored as the OC? UNC has a really strong offense. When it says air raid tendencies does that mean deep routes? 

Yes he is rumored as the OC. True Air Raids are not known to be vertical but his version is. Over the last six years, his pass offense has an average national ranking of 11th in yards per pass attempt.

21 minutes ago, WillMunny said:

Is Freeze wanting to bring this guy to Auburn?

I'm 99% certain this was the OC Freeze referenced during his press conference. He hired him at Ole Miss but Freeze was fired before they could work together in 2017.

21 minutes ago, EastAl_Tiger said:

So....it's actually 2nd down that's setting up the failure on 3rd down?

No... it's first down. Prime example is the recent Ole Miss game. AU averaged 6.07 yards per play on first down but 100-yards came on two plays. In reality, AU averaged 2.7 yards per play on their remaining first down snaps.

8 minutes ago, Taker said:

 

 And from what the season has proved is we will be at a minimum -2 in each of these games.

Offensive and Defensive turnover ratio...

Looking back at Auburn offenses from 1992-2022, the 2022 Auburn offense ranks 9th among the last 31, producing a play of 15+ yards every 8.14 plays. With better play by the OL and QB positions, 2022 would likely be a record-setting year on offense. The statistical goal being eight per game.

29 minutes ago, cole256 said:

I don't see the talented skill players available

It is there or AU would not rank as high when it comes to explosive plays.

24 minutes ago, TigerPAC said:

the key.....TURNOVERS

Very Good

Another area I monitor is production on first down, where 45 percent of the game takes place.

Here are the current rankings of first-down offense and first-down defense in the SEC:

Auburn ranks 9th on offense and 8th on defense. Overall, Auburn ranks 9th in the SEC regarding the difference gained on first down. Auburn is +.32. Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Alabama are the top-5.

Remaining Opponents:

Arkansas 4th

Alabama 5th

Miss State 7th

Texas A&M 11th

The combination of first down production and run defense, makes the MSU and TAMU games winnable.

4 minutes ago, AUINSY said:

this is shocking

Auburn's current ranking reveals two things. Auburn has talented skill players, but the offense is way too reliant on explosive plays, which have accounted for over 60 percent of the total yardage gained. The lack of consistency results from inconsistent blocking, average quarterback play, schemes, and play-calling. If Bo Nix was the starter this year, I believe the Tigers would be 5-2, having defeated LSU and Ole Miss. Robby Ashford has shown glimpses of talent but needs to be much more accurate passing the football. Execution by the OL and TE's in the running game has been a hit-and-miss process. Some of that was cleaned up against Ole Miss with the Tigers rushing for 301-yards on 48 attempts. They had their most success in their 12 personnel  against the Rebels. I do believe the key is still spreading the defense out with 3-4 WR sets but it was good to see success in 2-3 TE sets.

The lack of consistency has resulted in 2.5 yards per play outside the explosive plays, which ranks 29th among the last 31 Auburn offenses. If Auburn were averaging 3.5 yards per play, it would make a major difference in yardage gained, and points scored. Note the 28.2 yards per play when it comes to explosive plays, 7th best from 1992-2022. Again, an indicator of the talent available at the skill positions.

7 minutes ago, Taker said:

As PBS would say "the more you know" 

Thanks for clearing it up for me and also for the sage knowledge you pour out to us when you are able

For those that know me from social media, I could talk or write about Auburn football for hours. This has always been a good forum with great folks but like many boards, has become toxic. Over the years, I discovered that it is better to step away from it when it happens rather then rolling in the mud and getting dirty too. I don't post much on the ITAT boards for the same reason. The coaching changes has brought out a more toxic environment on football forums, something I elect to avoid.

On 10/15/2022 at 10:06 PM, Taker said:

So he doesn't post on here cause my man's getting paid for his Info now... SMART

I have worked for ITAT since 2006 so that has nothing to do with being active here. I am active on multiple Auburn boards, Youtube, Twitter, and radio. I also work and devote the majority of my time with my grandchildren.

https://youtu.be/PyirouHIEfU

 

The issue is that he only caught 50% of his targets. Was this from throwing error, drops, etc? it's obviously some combination, but that's an atrocious stat that takes a lot more impact to overcome if continued. 

Knowing where the targets were made on the field provides an actual explanation. Bo Nix completed about 44% of his passes beyond 20 yards of the LOS and Finley completed 31 percent. There is no indication that JJ had any "drop" issues. He was utilized in the deep passing game, so the completion percentage explains why he caught around 51 percent of his targeted passes. Cam Newton who was one of the top passers in the country in terms of efficiency, completed 44 percent of his pass attempts beyond 20-yards of the LOS.

 

So if I'm reading this right, he had a combination of drops/inaccurate passes that totaled 18? What am I missing?

His ratio for impact plays was better than Darvin Adams who was the best in school history. Should he double his targets this year, it could make a huge difference on offense. Anything under 1 out of 3 is really good. 

14 hours ago, AU-24 said:

Thanks for posting all of these detailed statistics!

I didn’t realize his 2017 numbers against A&M, Georgia and the turds were that impressive! Very, very impressive! Can you imagine if he had a solid SEC O-line to throw behind, what his career numbers would’ve looked like?!

I thought the same as I put the feature together.

1 hour ago, Tigerbelle said:

I wish we had receivers like him every season. 

What's Darvin doing now? Anybody know?

Still playing in the CFL