StatTiger

October 12, 2021

2 minutes ago, aubaseball said:

Same with Campbell. That guy was almost run out of town. Lost his starting job and by his senior year had the best season besides one Cameron Newton that I’ve ever seen.

Bingo

October 12, 2021

6 minutes ago, fredst said:

I have used the comparison with Stan White with folks before. Stan showed flashes early, looked terrible at times, but put it all together his senior year with the right team and system around him. Really hoping that Bo follows that same path. He can be frustrating to watch at times but I am really pulling pulling for him to succeed, both for his and AUs sake

It is a great comparison because they both started as freshman. I fear that Nix won't have the luxury of having the same supporting cast as White during 1993 and certainly not the schedule faced that year.

October 12, 2021

10 minutes ago, WDE_OxPx_2010 said:

@StatTiger I don't know why you bother presenting such detailed information for these people.

I love stats and trends, this is good stuff

Thank you. Just tried to provide some perspective supported by more than an opinion. Heck... Bo Nix would not make my top-5 list of Auburn QB's but I see a lot of issues on offense outside the QB position.

October 12, 2021

2 minutes ago, auburnphan said:

So having a successful qb can be the reason for a decent running game as well? I think having a quality qb opens up everything offensively.

Sure it can but it doesn't change the fact that teams in the SEC have a 15 percent winning percentage with 26 pass attempts or more, under 140 yards rushing and at least 21 points allowed. Alabama has the most success with a 9-24 record from 2000-2020 and is 4-1 from 2016-2020 and Georgia is 3-6. Alabama is the only team with a winning record in the SEC from 2016-2020.

October 12, 2021

1 minute ago, DAG said:

And nix is just as much the reason for that is what everyone else is saying.

Yes...

The OL is part of the problem

The drops are part of the problem

Running the wrong routes is part of the problem

Coaching is a part of the problem

Nix is part of the problem.

October 12, 2021

6 minutes ago, DAG said:

I didn’t say you manipulated the number . You are using stats to push a narrative . It’s definitely harder to produce success without a running game. THE WHOLE POINT IS BO NIX WAS SUPPOSE TO BE A 5 STAR DUAL THREAT QB. His skill set was suppose to offset the limitations of his peers. Lamar Jackson at Louisville is a product of that. If Lamar Jackson didn’t develop the way he did at Louisville, they wouldn’t have had nearly the same success. So basically his legacy he didn’t live up to his expectations as a recruit. People want to call him Johnny football?! Johnny football was the running game for Texas A&M.

My narrative is this.... NO QB in the SEC has experienced sustained success without a decent running game. Since Nix plays in the SEC that would include him and EVERY Auburn QB.

October 12, 2021

27 minutes ago, DAG said:

It’s just so weird, because I’ve never seen any of this from our previous QBs dating back to 2013. I remember NM was so under appreciated. In fact his last year quite a few fans were ready for him to go to see JJ. The same thing occurred with SW and JS. Very highly critique but Bo Nix also has endearment because he was not a transfer. The fact is he has a Disney story and he is an Auburn guy due to his family so many more people are willing to give him that around here. That’s the honest truth.

Loved me some Nick Marshall. It was terrific that Auburn was able to rush for over 150 yards in 25 of the 27 games he was at Auburn. He did not need to play QB in the NFL to appreciate what he accomplished at Auburn.

October 12, 2021

9 minutes ago, auburnphan said:

Auburn can’t run the ball with Bo Nix because he can’t stretch the field with any consistently. In games that Bo Nix starts Auburn averages less rushing yards. Teams load the box against Bo Nix lead offenses because they do not fear his arm or decision making resulting in poor rushing stats.

Really? That is the only reason why Auburn cannot run the ball consistently? Just for the sake of argument I will agree but, NO team in the SEC has sustained success throwing the football without a running game. What is their excuse?

October 12, 2021

1 minute ago, DAG said:

Yes you posted stats but stats can be very manipulative as well too.

Okay... show me data, where five college QB's had sustained individual success as well as a good win percentage, without the support of a running game and against quality competition. Feel free to manipulate the numbers...

It should not be difficult for you since you think I have somehow manipulated the numbers. Why is it that nearly every defensive coach will place, "stop the run" at the top of their list, before just about every game?

October 12, 2021

20 minutes ago, W.E.D said:

It's also seems weird he's trying to stuff a 2020 era offense & stats into the last 50 years of Auburn football as if offenses haven't evolved.

If everyone is being honest with themselves, Auburn hasn't had a truly elite QB throwing the ball in the last 40 years....especially coupled with a high powered offense. Jason Campbell might have been the best in 2004.

Is the last 5 years current enough for you? From 2016-2020, All SEC teams compiled a 15 percent win percentage when having to throw the ball at least 26 times during a game, with less than 140 yards rushing and the opposition scoring at least 21 points.

October 12, 2021

16 minutes ago, DAG said:

I’ve never seen so much spin for a 5 star QB. Real talent evaluators at the next level will be able to see where he ends up with or without a supporting cast.

No spin... everything I posted is fact. I took the time to compile and post some data that would bring a better perspective on Auburn's current situation. I guess I could have come on here and just said, "Hey, Bo would be better if we could run". Nowhere in my initial post did I state that Bo is not part of the issue. In fact, I ended it with, Bo not being a super star even if all around him was efficient. I have never seen such lack of credibility in response to actual facts. Why even bring up "real" talent evaluator? I did not evaluate his talent level. I evaluated the circumstances of which he has been placed. The discussion is bout NOW and not what happens when he leaves Auburn. I have seen some really good collegiate play by Auburn QB's that did not make any NFL roster.

October 12, 2021

1 minute ago, McLoofus said:

It's okay to expect adequate play from QB1 in addition to adequate play and schemes from the rest of the program.

Yes, it's okay to expect adequate play when all around QB1 is adequate play. Again, the history of Auburn's success during the modern era of college football reveals you cannot expect adequate play from the QB when there is no consistency in the running game. This supported by EVERY team in the SEC from 2000-2020. Not sure why that is so difficult to understand.

No scheming in the world is going to consistently overcome issues on the OL.

October 12, 2021

11 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

Or maybe the run game could also use some help from the passing game?

It is a run to set up the pass offense but regardless, Auburn has passed the ball nearly 63% in the first half of the last 3 games and that has not worked. Until AU can prove they can consistently run on 6 men in the box, the same issues will continue. You are clearly missing the point of every team in the SEC failing from 2000-2020, when restricted by a lack of a running game. Auburn is no exception.

October 12, 2021

When Auburn signed Bo Nix, some publications had him listed as a 5-star recruit, setting high expectations for the high school senior. Because Jarrett Stidham elected to forgo his senior year, Nix was thrown into the starting lineup as a true freshman. He would end up facing six teams that would win at least 11 games that year, something no collegiate quarterback has ever faced as a true freshman. During his twenty-four starts as an Auburn Tiger against Power-5 competition, Auburn averaged only 160 yards rushing per game. Of those 24 games, 13 opponents had a winning record, and Auburn averaged just 124 yards rushing per game. His struggles were magnified in these games as he now became the focal point for any offensive success. During the 18 games Auburn rushed for at least 160 yards, Bo Nix was 18-3 as the starter, throwing for 26 touchdowns and only six interceptions. He was not good enough to carry the team when all else around him were struggling.

Bo Nix was placed into a situation of throwing more than 25 passes during 21 of 30 starts. Fifteen of his starts, Nix was forced to attempt at least 30 passes when the running game failed to deliver. The only Auburn QB with more than 15 games of throwing the ball at least 30 times was Stan White (18), who was forced to work through team struggles from 1990-1992. It was not until his senior year that White was surrounded with a good OL, running game, quality receivers, and good defense. He then became part of a great "team effort" that resulted in an 11-0 season. Auburn fans have witnessed this with many Auburn quarterbacks. Jeff Burger and Reggie Slack are fondly remembered because they beat Alabama and Georgia regularly. The truth is that both were surrounded by NFL talent and great defense from 1986-1989. Burger threw three picks against Bama in 1986, and Auburn still won. What do you think would happen to Auburn if Bo Nix threw three interceptions against Alabama this year? From 1986-1989, Auburn had seven games; the Tigers had to attempt more than 25 passes, rushed for under 140 yards, and the defense allowed more than 10 points. The Tigers were 0-5-2 during those seven games with a passer rating of 104.3 while scoring an average of 13.3 points.

From 1990-1995 (Stan White and Patrick Nix), Auburn went 3-6-1 under the same circumstances, scoring an average of 22.2 PPG, with a passer rating of 114.9. During the Jason Campbell era (2001-2004), Auburn was 2-7 during games; the Tigers attempted more than 25 passes and were held to under 140-yards rushing. The Tigers accumulated a passer rating of 107.8 while scoring 10 points per game. Campbell averaged only 16.6 pass attempts during 2002, teamed up with a solid running game and a stout defense. The following year as a junior (2003), Campbell was required to throw the ball at least 26 times on six occasions, where Auburn averaged only 103 yards rushing per game. The Tigers went 1-5 during those six games, averaging 10.6 points per game. During his senior campaign, Campbell was surrounded by a good offensive line, two first-round draft picks at running back, arguably the best WR corps in school history, and the No. 1 defense in college football. Jason Campbell flourished as the No. 2 passer in the nation that year, guiding Auburn to a 13-0 season.

Since 1961, Auburn is 8-70-1 in games the team had to throw more than 25 times, rushed for under 140 yards, and allowed at least 21 points on defense. That equates to once every 9.1 games since 1961. Bo Nix has been placed into that position once every 3.7 games during his 30 starts. Other than Dameyune Craig, no other AU QB has worked through Nix's issues from 2019-2021. At least during the 1997 season, Craig was blessed with a good receiving corps and a solid defense. From 2000-2020, SEC teams won only 16 percent of their games when throwing more than 25 times, rushed for under 140 yards, and allowed at least 21 points on defense. Auburn’s 8-70-1 record should speak volumes about every quarterback that played under those circumstances.

Bo Nix might not be the most talented quarterback to start for the Auburn Tigers and has yet to prove he can consistently carry the team by himself. There are very few collegiate quarterbacks that consistently carried their teams when all else around him failed. The few that have accomplished it were considered an exceptional or once-in-a-lifetime type of player. The truth is that Bo Nix does require a supporting cast to obtain the most of his abilities for no fault of his own. His 18-3 record with at least 160-yards rushing is confirmation that he can deliver with a supporting cast. The sad commentary is that we may never see it happen during his time as the starting quarterback, tainting his legacy as Auburn’s starting quarterback. Even if everything around Nix were operating efficiently, Bo Nix probably would not be one of the top QB's in the country, but I have no doubt he would perform close to what we all hoped he would be.

War Eagle!

October 10, 2021

Upon Further Review – Georgia

During the last three games, Tank Bigsby has 115 yards on 37 attempts (3.11 YPC), Jarquez Hunter has 145 yards on 21 carries (6.90 YPC). Jarquez needs to have more touches during the second-half of the regular season and certainly more than Shaun Shivers.
During the first five games, the Auburn defense surrendered seven plays of at least 30 yards. Georgia totaled four such plays, a significant difference in the outcome of the game. Auburn is now 11-13 since 2006, when the opposition has at least four plays of at least 30 yards during a game.
Of Auburn’s 14 plays of at least 30 yards, only three have occurred during the first quarter. Slow starts on offense as of late has set the tone for the games.
44.3 percent of Georgia’s 70 offensive snaps netted at least 5-yards, a season-low for the Auburn defense. Fifteen of those 31 plays came during the Bulldog’s final three possessions. At this point of the game, the Auburn defense was not at the same emotional level to start the game.
After holding Georgia to 179 yards during the first half, the Bulldogs tallied 253 yards during the second half.
48.4 percent of Auburn’s first-down snaps this season have been held to 3-yards or less. During the last four games, it is 58.1 percent. Auburn’s continuous struggles on first down have forced the offense to play uphill, reducing their ability to gain yardage and score points. Auburn is currently averaging only 3.9 yards per rush on first down during their last four games.
During Auburn’s last 45 possessions, only ONE has begun on the opponent’s side of the field. With Auburn scoring a touchdown 30 percent of the time, the lack of short fields is compounding the Tigers’ scoring potential from their side of the field. It must be a "team" concept for the 2021 Auburn Tigers to be successful in the win column.
Bo Nix has completed only 52 percent of his first-down passes for 4.8 yards per attempt during the last five games.
Sixty-two percent of Georgia’s total yardage came during their final five possessions of the game. The Bulldogs averaged 23.6 yards per possession during their first seven possessions and 53.4 yards during their last five possessions.
Through six games, 69.8 percent of Bo Nix’s pass attempts are within 10-yards of the line of scrimmage. Of his 132 attempts in this target area, Auburn averages only 4.6 yards per attempt. Yardage gained after the catch has been minimal. T.J. Finley has thrown 53.1 percent of the time within 10 yards of the LOS, for 5.7 yards per attempt.
Bo Nix finished the game with 21 completions from 38 attempts. Three of the in-completions were “throw-aways,” and his receivers dropped eight passes. Of the dropped passes, three would have extended drives. Take away the drops, and Nix could have been 29 of 38 for about 270 yards and two touchdowns. It was not the greatest pass, but John Shenker should have caught the red zone touchdown pass. Nix over-threw Demetris Robertson on another red zone touchdown opportunity, and the officials robbed Auburn after Ze-Vian Capers was mugged on another red zone touchdown opportunity. Nix finished with a pass rating of 97.9 but could have easily been 153.4.
There has been plenty of discussion about whether or not Tank Bigsby is injured. He might be banged up, but his issues running the football has more to do with offensive line play than his health. The majority of his rush attempts are between the tackles where Auburn is not establishing a consistent push. Bigsby has been held to 3-yards or less on 50 percent of his attempts, and Jarquez Hunter has been held to 3-yards or less, 47.6 percent. How healthy is Hunter?
Based on my statistical report card, the Auburn offense is currently at 55.2 percent at midseason, 42.7 percent on defense, and 75.0 percent on special teams.
After holding Georgia to 36 yards rushing on 18 attempts during the first half, Auburn allowed 165 yards on 31 attempts during the final two quarters. The bulk of that occurred after Georgia was up 27-10.
Auburn’s defensive front-7 accounted for 49.3 percent of the tackles against the Bulldogs, a season-low for the defense. Through six games, the front-7 has been involved in 65.2 percent of the tackles.
Auburn came into the Georgia game, converting on 50 percent of their third-down situations. Georgia held Auburn to 28 percent, a season-low for the offense. The level of opposition makes a difference.
58.3 percent of Georgia’s total yardage came on first down, compared to Auburn’s 37.1 percent. During the last five games against the Georgia Bulldogs, Auburn has averaged 4.8 yards per play on first down, compared to Georgia’s 6.9 yards. The Bulldogs have simply been better upfront.
During the last three games, Auburn has thrown the football 134 times to 93 rush attempts. Six of those rushes were sacks, so it is more like 140 pass attempts to 87 run plays. Throwing the football 61.6 percent of the time is NOT a winning formula for an Auburn offense. Auburn needs to return to its offensive identity during the second half of the regular season. Four of their last six opponents are currently in the bottom-half of run defense in the conference.
Auburn has scored only seven offensive touchdowns during three Power-5 games, and none of them were over 30 yards. During the first three games, 5 of their 14 touchdowns were over 30-yards. The lack of explosive plays continues to be a major issue for the Auburn offense. Auburn has scored 80 offensive touchdowns in conference play from 2018-2021, but only 13 have been of 30-yards or more. The personnel responsible for those 13 explosive touchdown plays are no longer on the Auburn roster.
Auburn is currently No. 12 in the SEC with a pass rating of 135.7 on first down. Auburn’s next two opponents are Arkansas and Ole Miss, who are currently No. 1 and No. 2 in the conference.
Eleven times now from 2019-2021, Auburn has gone “three and out” at least 33 percent of the time during a game. Auburn is 4-7 during those games. Auburn has lost the third-down battle 25 times from 2016-2021, compiling a 7-18 record (.280).
Yesterday marked the 55th time the opposition has compiled a pass rating of at least 150.0 from 2000-2021. Auburn lost 76.4 percent of those games.
Georgia gained 267 yards on 39 snaps (6.85 YPP) for 20 points during each team's final five possessions. Auburn totaled 158 yards on 27 snaps (5.85 YPP) for seven points.
Auburn is currently No. 61 nationally in red zone touchdown percentage, and Arkansas is No. 63.
Since 2000, Auburn is now 2-30 during games; the Tigers accounted for less than 30 percent of the combined rushing totals. Auburn accounted for 18.6 percent of the game’s rushing totals against the Bulldogs. During the seven meetings against Kirby Smart’s Georgia Bulldogs, Auburn has accounted for only 37.2 percent of the rushing totals.

As poorly as Auburn appeared on offense against Georgia, it is crucial to consider how good the Bulldog defense has been this season. They have allowed only two offensive touchdowns through six games. Arkansas, Auburn’s next opponent, has averaged 519 yards per game on offense and 279 yards rushing outside the Georgia game. The Razorbacks were held to 162 yards in total offense and 75 rushing against Georgia. Auburn gained 318 yards and should have scored at least 21 points. Arkansas is currently 8th in the conference in total defense (337.5 YPG) and 9th in scoring defense (24.5 PPG). The Razorbacks are 11th against the run, allowing 181.5 yards per game. Though Auburn has issues on offense, the Razorbacks will not field the same level of defense the Tigers faced Saturday. It will take an offense with a highly efficient pass offense to pressure the 2021 Georgia defense. The key will be for the Auburn players to move forward, erasing the Georgia game from their minds and for the offensive staff to find the solutions needed to return to a more physical offense.

War Eagle!

October 4, 2021

September 13, 2021

September 6, 2021

August 15, 2021

From 1992-2020:

How frequently did the 2020 Auburn offense gain at least 40-yards during a possession?

40.8 percent, which was 8th best the past 29 seasons. The average is 36.0 percent.

How frequently did Auburn score on those 40-yard possessions last year?

81.6 percent or 6th best the past 29 years. The average was 77.5 percent.

The 2020 Auburn offense was more efficient than the 2004 Auburn offense, examining the above two categories. So why was the 2004 Auburn offense obviously more successful than 2020? They were able to finish what they started.

How frequently did the 2020 Auburn offense score a touchdown on their 40-yard possessions?

49.0 percent or 25th best the past 29 seasons. The average is 60.8 percent.

The 2019 Auburn offense scored a touchdown 63.5 percent of the time, which helped guide Auburn to a 9-3 regular season. The 2021 Auburn offense might not be too far away from finding success if they become more consistent in finishing drives. The Tigers were No. 97 in red zone TD's last year and 70th in producing plays of 40+ yards.

August 7, 2021

The following is a breakdown of Auburn’s recruiting classes from 2002-2018, high school players only.

· 178 players appeared in at least 20 games or were a starter for at least one season.

· Of the 178 players that became impact players for the program, their average ranking from high school was 383rd. Keep in mind there were some players not given a ranking by 257sports, so I rated those players as 1000.

· The average ranking of offensive players … 357th.

· The average ranking of defensive players … 403rd.

· The average ranking of Auburn players named All-SEC … 240th.

· Average ranking of defensive backs … 487th.

· Average ranking of defensive lineman … 320th.

· Average ranking of linebackers … 373rd.

· Average ranking of offensive lineman … 412th.

· Average ranking of quarterbacks … 149th.

· Average ranking of running backs … 327th.

· Average ranking of tight ends … 327th.

· Average ranking of wide receivers … 368th.

· 17.4 percent of Auburn’s recruits were top-100.

· 39.3 percent were top-200.

· 53.9 percent were top-300

· 66.3 percent were top-400

· 71.3 percent were top-500.

There are 64 current Power-5 teams in the country that must split up the nation’s top-500 talent or 7.8 per team. The 64 power-5 teams must share 1.1 per team of the nation’s top-200. With that in mind, Auburn is doing fairly well signing top-200 talent with 39.3 percent from 2002-2018 or 4.1 per year that actually made an impact. Overall, 64.8 percent of the top-200 players signed by Auburn from 2002-2018, became an impact player. To consistently compete for championships they likely need to get into the 66 percent range or 6.9 per year. Again, that is 6.9 per season that actually makes an impact. They are currently at 66 percent for the top-400. The average ranking of 240th for All-SEC players and 149th average for quarterbacks is a major statement.

Thoughts?

June 7, 2021

8 minutes ago, bdc81 said:

Had a sales rep uat fan in the office that Friday, droned on forever about why the tide should win.

I told him that I agreed with everything he said, they were heavy favorites. But that there was one factor that he had not

factored into his analysis.

Told him they would have to win in front of 87,000 Auburn fans that had heard a lot of trash jokes from trashy people for a long time.

Never seen anyone turn as suddenly from ebullient to phlegmatic.

Lol

June 7, 2021

In this historical production, Auburn (8-2) hosts Alabama (10-0) at Jordan-Hare Stadium for the first time ever. It was the final step in creating equality within the conference when it came to scheduling home games. Having attended Auburn games since the 70's, this was the loudest I have ever heard Jordan-Hare. It was an amazing venue and a terrific outcome for the home Tigers.

Alabama led at halftime, 10-7 but Auburn outscored Alabama 23-10 during the second half. The key was Reggie Slack and an offensive line that provided solid protection and opening running lanes during the second half. Auburn's 443 yards was the most allowed by the 12th ranked Alabama defense that year. Auburn possessed the nation's No. 2 scoring defense, surrendering only 13 touchdowns during twelve games in 1989.

This is a non-profit production and I hold no copyrights to the contents within. Video footage is from CBS and the Auburn Network. Music score by David Robidoux, Bill Conti, and Tom Hedden.

War Eagle!

June 6, 2021

This Auburn Flashback highlights the 1993 Iron Bowl, pitting #6 Auburn (10-0-0) against #12 Alabama (8-1-1). Alabama was the defending National Champion from 1992, and Auburn was starting over with new head coach Terry Bowden. The 1993 Auburn team might not have been the "greatest" team, but they certainly played "great" together. It was perhaps one of the best teams in school history when it came to team chemistry. There were many outstanding individual performances by Auburn personnel, making significant plays to navigate through an undefeated regular season.

This concept of everyone stepping up to make a play carried through the season's final game against a good Alabama team. Much like the season, there were highs and lows during the 1993 Iron Bowl, but the Tigers managed to generate more highs to remain undefeated for the season. This video project is a non-profit production, produced as a historical account from the pages of Auburn Football History.

I hold no copyrights to the content within. The Auburn Network broadcasted the original video footage. Music credited to ESPN, ABC Sports, Sam Spence, and David Robidoux.

November 4, 2020

1 hour ago, weagl1 said:

Stuart has Auburn ever had a game against an SEC opponent where both the offense and defense had a perfect score (16/16) using your criteria? I think you maybe added the “bonus points” deal which allowed the defense to get to the perfect score even though a couple of things failed largely due to Gus emptying the bench in the 4th quarter. I thought that this was one of the most complete games of the Gus era.

From 2009-2020, the only other perfect score on offense and defense in SEC play, came against Arkansas in 2016, when Auburn defeated the Hogs, 56-3.

November 2, 2020

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The current legacy of Bo Nix

The current legacy of Bo Nix

The current legacy of Bo Nix

The current legacy of Bo Nix

The current legacy of Bo Nix

The current legacy of Bo Nix

The current legacy of Bo Nix

The current legacy of Bo Nix

The current legacy of Bo Nix

The current legacy of Bo Nix

The current legacy of Bo Nix

The current legacy of Bo Nix

The current legacy of Bo Nix

The current legacy of Bo Nix

Upon Further Review - Georgia Game

Auburn Highlights against LSU

Auburn Highlights against Alabama State

Auburn vs. Akron Highlights

Inside the Numbers - Finishing Drives

Inside the Numbers - Auburn Recruiting 2002-2018

Auburn Flashback: 1989 Auburn vs. Alabama

Auburn Flashback: 1989 Auburn vs. Alabama

Auburn Flashback 1993 Auburn vs. Alabama

LSU Game Report Card

Auburn offensive breakdown vs. LSU

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