southern_sports

Way too many dropped passes in my opinion. I read where Thorne slammed the door after the press conference. I know he had to be frustrated.

Yep. Our secondary helped a ton with that. I know it's hindsight, but it would be interesting to see what would've happened if we ran the ball more. I think we will rush more as the season goes along. I expect the QB play to improve, but I think we can have success running the ball.

My mistake. Yes, we had 4 explosive rushing plays but 0 explosive passing plays according to the box score. There is no set criteria for an explosive play. It's usually 20+ yards for passing and 12+ for rushing. I get this data from Game On Paper which uses the ESPN stats for their data. They define explosive of >2.4 EPA/play for passing and >1.8 EPA//play. It's really up to you how you define it though. I use the 20 and 12 yard as my threshold.

Tough, tough loss. Too many dropped passes and mistakes plagued Auburn pretty much all day. Third downs on offense and defense is what ultimately beat Auburn at the end of the day. Georgia was able to convert theirs and Auburn was not. Despite all that, there's nothing to hang your head about if you're Auburn. Overall, the metrics say Auburn didn't play all that well but almost pulled it off! I really think CFH made some tweaks that will only help Auburn going forward. There's still a lot to play for. Analyzing the advanced box score reveals the strengths and weaknesses of both teams. Georgia excelled in offensive efficiency, converting most of their third downs, which proved crucial. Despite Auburn's lower performance in various metrics, they remained just a few plays away from victory, showcasing their resilience and the support of their home crowd. Georgia recorded 6 explosive plays, largely thanks to Brock Bowers, while Auburn had none. Auburn demonstrated some success running the ball, which bodes well for their future. However, the lack of explosive plays hindered both teams' offenses, resulting in negative double-digit EPA without Explosive Plays. The Tigers struggled in the passing game, while Beck made critical throws in the second half that challenged Auburn's defense. While Auburn showed promise in running the ball, improving their passing game is essential for consistent success in the SEC. Georgia's defense recorded 3 sacks and 3 tackles for loss, while Auburn created more Havoc Plays and tackles for loss, highlighting the strength of Georgia's offensive line. Ultimately, the game boiled down to Auburn's inability to finish drives compared to Georgia's efficiency in doing so. Utilizing Bill Connelly's 5 Factors to Winning to assess this game, Georgia emerged victorious in the most critical aspects, including Efficiency, Offensive Explosiveness, Field Position, and Finishing Drives. The turnover battle ended in a draw. Auburn had an 83.8% chance of winning the game the play before Payton Thorne got sacked in the third quarter at the Georgia 35. Truly a game of inches.

Not a great Saturday for the good guys to say the least. This was typical Auburn football for the past 5 years or so. Defense does everything it can do to give you an opportunity to win the game and the offense just stalls. Such is life for the recent Auburn program. It was ugly but let’s look a little deeper. Almost everything on offense was downright comical. Yards/Play, Yards/Dropback, 3rd Down Success Rate, Red Zone Success Rate, and Def Run Stuff Rate all in the bottom 5th percentile or worse. Despite all this, it was still a ballgame in the mid 4th quarter. That’s what’s so mind numbing yet keeps me bullish on the rebuild. It could be worse; we could be dreadful on defense too. Too many people think we are Boston College or something. We're a few tweaks away from competing in the West IMO it's a wide-open division. 56 yards through the air is embarrassing. Silver lining is that they ran the ball better, but it wasn’t anything all that special. I think they should run the ball more. Thorne needs to step it up to say the least but leaning on the run to “open the pass” might give them chances for some explosive plays. Granted Thorne actually getting the ball out and hitting his guys. Of the 30 passes, only 6 were deemed successful. Much more success on standard and early downs and as mentioned above the poor 3rd down conversion rate, the Tigers could do almost nothing on late downs. On passing downs, there was only 3 successful plays. This goes more in-depth in the rushing game. We were stuffed a good bit and stopped, but 19 rushing attempts that were deemed opportunity runs. Out of 64 plays from scrimmage only 3 were deemed explosive. TAMU wasn’t much better. My $0.02, if the Tigers had an ounce of efficiency, explosiveness, or Thorne playing like an average QB then Auburn wins by a TD or so. On paper it’s really not asking for much to see the offense improve going forward. I don’t think the sky is falling and it’s not farfetched to think they can turn it around on offense.

Auburn seems to match up pretty well on paper. TAMU has the more efficient offense, while Auburn has the stronger defense. This is also pretty interesting. Thorne is not exactly lighting it up out there like Weigman has, but the pass defense for both are complete opposites. Now, Auburn is banged up in the secondar but could still make some plays. Thorne will have opportunities to exploit this TAMU secondary. If so, then Auburn could have a big day! I'm not quite sure Auburn has gotten rid of the turnover bug so I will lean TAMU here 24-21.

I was not able to watch the game so I’m going strictly off the advanced box score so please feel free to correct me or share your input. I was a little disappointed in the score. Personally, I wanted to see 50+ put on the Bulldogs and hold them to under 10 but in a rebuild like this a win is a win. Overall, there looks like there’s some positives to take away from the game that they probably worked on this week after the Cal game. Efficiency - Tigers had a decent day. 0.22 EPA/Play that puts them in the 83rd percentile, still room to improve on that number against an FCS team. Success Rate - 56% for 98th percentile! After the Cal game that is a welcome improvement. Explosiveness - Good to see Auburn making more explosive plays. They will need that as they will be in unfavorable matchups the next two weekends up front. Finishing Drives - 50% 3rd down success could improve. Red Zone success rate must definitely improve. Turnover Battle - ESPN says 3 turnovers a piece but other sites have Samford only turning it over twice. Can’t confirm it because I haven’t watched the game yet. Takeaways: Tigers need to work on limiting turnovers. Offense had a nice bounce back from the Cal game. Thorne seems to have improved this week but is nowhere near to where he needs to be Need more explosive plays against TAMU next week. I don’t think these numbers will cut it.

Last year the 2023 schedule was released on September 20th from what I can tell. I'm guessing next Thursday. If I had to guess, I'd say we get our toughest games at the end of each month. Georgia in September, Oklahoma in October, and IB in November.

I won't go in-depth on this one. I hope the passing game improves and I'd be disappointed if Samford scores double digits. Auburn 56 Samford 7

I apologize. Auburn turned the ball over 4 times, not 5.

The Auburn/Cal contest was anything but pretty. The Tigers gave Cal plenty of opportunities (4 turnovers 77 plays from scrimmage) to whip them and put the game out of reach anytime throughout the ballgame, but they never did. This win reminded me of several from the past 5 years or so where Auburn willed themselves to victory on sheer talent alone on both sides of the ball. I predicted this last week, if Auburn wins it'll be because they have better athletes and coaches. Turned out I was half right because there were definitely some coaching blunders. How did Auburn do in the he 5 Factors? Not great. Efficiency: Lost. Tigers were in the 3rd percentile of EPA/Play. That seems almost impossible that they won this game with -0.41 points per play. Offensive Explosiveness: Wash. Both had explosive play rate of 9% Field Position: Lost. Avg starting position was own 30 compared to Cal’s avg starting position at their own 37. Auburn only achieved 33% of available yards. Finishing Drives: Won. This turned out to be the difference because Auburn went 50% and Cal missed some field goals and ended up at only 17%. Big credit to the defense of stepping up late in the game. Winning Turnover Battle: Lost. 4-3. 8 total turnovers in this game. While the passing game was concerning, the rushing EPA is terrifying. Auburn's run game accounted for -19.47 points. Ball security must be addressed ASAP. Auburn did themselves no favors turning the ball over 4 times. It’s reasonable to assume the Tigers win this game by double digits had they limited turnovers to maybe 1 or 2. The biggest takeaway is how inefficient the offense was. They were expected to score negative points on each play meaning it was more likely that on any given play in the game it was more likely that Auburn was going to give the ball back to Cal and then they score. Luckily for Auburn, Cal had the same issues. We all know the defense saved the day. What’s so crazy is that Auburn had the upper hand in win probability throughout most of the game. Tigers should be very fortunate Cal is not very good and it just goes to show how bad North Texas is on defense.

In a very rare occurrence, the Auburn Tigers are headed to California for a regular season matchup against the Cal Bears in Berkeley. The last time the Tigers played in Northern California was 1936 when they played the University of Santa Clara. The school is expecting a flood of Auburn fans to the area in which could make the game seem like a home game for the visitors. That’s a good thing, because the Tigers will need all the help, they can get to notch a victory in the Bay Area late Saturday night. With such a small sample size and both teams playing lower-level opponents in week 1 it’s difficult to really grasp what either team is made out of so far. A few things we know about Auburn, they have QB who has a history of making plays, a much-improved OL, lockdown secondary, and a stable of running backs. Cal proved last week it can put up 58 points on the road and run a lot of plays (94 to be exact). Even against a defense that is in the bottom 10 of FBS in total defense rating, it was still an impressive performance by the Cal offense. Auburn will need to be ready to face a much better offense than UMass. Both teams are similar in EPA/play but Auburn has the edge in Success Rate. The Tigers have to finish drives so Robby Ashford might be asked to make some plays or be a great decoy down in the red zone. The Tigers need to show up and be ready to make big plays because Cal will be hyped up to face an SEC opponent. Auburn has more talent and the edge in coaching, but the execution will be key on the road. They must win the battle of the 5 Factors to escape Berkeley unscathed (Efficiency, Offensive Explosiveness, Field Position, Finishing Drives, Winning Turnover Battle). I think they do and get the cover. Prediction: Auburn 27 Cal 17

I am not Pythia, but a simple man. I wish I could tell you that Auburn will beat Cal! We're favored by 6.5 and if we win it'll be because of the new staff + having better players. We would've lost this game last year, but Auburn beats teams like Ole Miss, Arkansas, and Miss State even with poor coaching just on athleticism alone (usually). I think that combined with a real deal staff and QB who can complete passes gives the Tigers an edge. It'll feel like a home game and I think they pull it out 27-17. Cal went nuts last week against a North Texas team who has a total defense rating of 123 out of 133 FBS teams per bcftoys. They will face SEC dudes Saturday night.

A few days late on this but I wanted to share the advanced box score from Auburn's victory this past Saturday over UMass: Auburn defeated UMass on Saturday 59-14 to open the 2023 season. At first glance, it looks like the new offense and defense performed well, but let’s dig a little deeper. The 5 Factors Bill Connelly has identified for his SP+ rankings are a good benchmark to analyze off of in my opinion. Explosiveness Explosive rate was only 9%, but remember Auburn was holding things back and didn’t need much explosiveness. Efficiency EPA/Play estimates how many points a team gained or lost on a given play taking into account several factors. A good play will give you a positive EPA and a poor play will give you a negative. You’ll see that Auburn was in 95th percentile with a positive EPA per play at 0.35 while UMass was in the negative at -0.19. Success Rate at 58% EPA/Rush at 0.45 is great to see EPA/Dropback not that great but then again Auburn was not operating at fully capacity Finishing Drives Offensive Available Yards Percentage (OAY): This measures how much yardage a team gains compared to the total yards they could potentially gain on a drive. It's calculated by dividing the yards gained on a drive by the yards they could have gained if they had started from their position and reached the end zone. Auburn gained 73% of their yards available on their drives Field Position Battle UMass had a constant disadvantage by averaging starting on their own 23 Auburn averaged starting in better field position and had more plays and yards per drive Win turnover battle Auburn won the turnover battle with a turnover margin of 2 There's plenty good to be taken from the win last Saturday and some criticisms are warranted. I think it's best to understand that CFH and staff knew they could skate by on talent alone and did what they could to run away with it without showing off too much. We should see more from Thorne against Cal this Saturday.

Happy Friday, AU Family I wanted to share my 2023 Auburn preview article I just posted on my Substack. Please let me know what you think! Following Admin rules, I am not allowed to link to the original source, but I appreciate them letting me share my new hobby. This is nothing too in-depth, just for casual (and die hard) fans. This is something I practice and try to improve on every week so please let me know if you any suggestions or criticisms. Thank you. War Eagle! The Auburn Tigers are currently in the first phase of a rebuilding process. This is the stage where a new head coach takes charge to rectify the substantial mess left behind by the previous regime. Normally, rebuilding a program is a lengthy process, but thanks to the transfer portal, deficiencies can be addressed while also recruiting high school talents to ensure long-term program stability. To say that Hugh Freeze has been impressive would be an understatement. He and his staff managed to salvage the 2023 recruiting class, pushing it to a 16th overall ranking last winter. They strategically added transfers to bolster the offensive and defensive lines and the linebacker position. Addressing the need for a quarterback, they secured Payton Thorne as a valuable addition. The palpable excitement surrounding the program will undoubtedly provide the team with a boost heading into the upcoming season. Starting with the quarterback room, Payton Thorne, the transfer from Michigan State, just secured the starting role over Robby Ashford and Holden Geriner. Robby Ashford's athleticism might lead to his involvement in certain packages. In my opinion, he possesses too much athletic potential to remain on the sidelines, and the coaching staff will undoubtedly find ways to capitalize on his abilities. Moving on to the running back position, Auburn boasts a solid group. With the departure of Tank Bigsby, Hunter is likely to step into the starting role. Keep an eye out for sophomore Damari Alston and USF transfer Brian Battie, both expected to receive significant carries. Alston has emerged as a team leader and should make notable strides in his role as a running back this season. True freshman and consensus 4-star recruit Jeremiah Cobb, along with sophomore Sean Jackson, further contribute to the depth of this position group. The offensive line, a recent Achilles' heel for Auburn football, is undergoing a transformation this fall. Losing six members of the position group, Auburn has reloaded with four experienced transfers, all of whom had at least 11 starts in the 2022 season. Jaden Muskrat and Dillon Wade from Tulsa, Avery Jones from East Carolina, and Gunner Britton from Western Kentucky are the new faces set to revamp the offensive line. This unit's performance could potentially make the most significant difference for Auburn's season. The expectation is that the offensive line will experience significant improvement throughout training camp and into the season. Enhanced offensive efficiency and improved drive completion could position the Tigers for success in the upcoming games. Turning our attention to the wide receivers and tight ends, inconsistent quarterback and offensive line performance over recent years has hindered Auburn's wideouts. Led by senior Ja'Varrius Johnson and sophomore Camden Brown, this position group has received a boost through transfers acquired via the portal during the offseason. Jyaire Shorter (formerly at North Texas), Nick Mardner (formerly at Cincinnati), and the substantial tight end Rivaldo Fairweather (formerly at Florida Atlantic) provide valuable depth. Auburn fans have long yearned for a 1,000-yard receiver, and it appears that the 2023 roster may have the potential to produce one. Shifting our focus to the defensive side, reasons for optimism emerge. Ron Roberts, a seasoned college football coaching veteran, is tasked with rebuilding and leading the defensive unit back to Auburn's standard of robust and tenacious defense. On the defensive line, Auburn currently lacks a proven, standout playmaker on the edge and in the middle. However, this situation could evolve as the season progresses. It's plausible to envision this defensive unit ascending to the upper echelons of SEC defensive lines by the end of the season. Notable transfers, juniors Justin Rogers (formerly at Kentucky) and Jayson Jones (formerly at Oregon), will bolster the interior line. Junior Marcus Harris, the lone returning starter, is set to be supported by Vanderbilt transfer Elijah McCallister as a dependable backup. While this group might not initially boast the prestige of other current SEC units, I am optimistic that they will demonstrate remarkable growth over the course of the season. At linebacker, a unit that experienced significant losses from the previous year, new faces have joined the ranks through four transfers. Junior transfer Austin Keys (formerly at Ole Miss) and Cam Riley will anchor the inside, while sophomore Keionte Scott and App State transfer Jalen McLeod are expected to handle duties on the outside, occupying the Jack and Star positions. There's potential for true freshman and consensus four-star recruit Keldric Faulk to not only secure a starting position but also contribute as a playmaker for the Tigers. While the linebacker position may be the defensive unit's weakest link, there remains ample room for growth and improvement. Fortunately, they are guided by Josh Aldridge, a valuable addition to the staff, recognized for his excellence in recruiting and overall contributions. The linebackers and defensive line exhibit parallels to the offensive line; they are primed for growth and refinement as the season unfolds. Shifting to the secondary, the defensive strength is evident. Auburn boasts what I consider to be a top-10 secondary in the nation, with the entire unit returning. Senior Nehemiah Pritchett and D.J. James are standout cornerbacks and are anticipated to make their mark in the upcoming season. Juniors Jaylin Simpson and Zion Puckett, along with sophomore Cayden Bridges, form a solid foundation for the rest of the secondary, which is poised for another exceptional season. They are prepared for a challenging journey in the SEC, facing formidable quarterbacks such as Will Rogers, Jayden Daniels, Jaxson Dart, and K.J. Jefferson. Similar to the linebackers, the secondary is guided by a pivotal figure in Auburn's recruiting effort and player development, Zac Etheridge. Special Teams is experiencing a shift as well. For the first time in what feels like a decade, the Tigers won't have a Carlson handling their kicking duties. Instead, sophomore Alex McPherson is set to take over kicking responsibilities, while Oscar Chapman returns as punter. Chapman, in particular, is a quietly influential asset for Auburn's prospects in 2023. Although the special teams unit faced challenges last year, McPherson demonstrated his capabilities by converting 6 out of 7 field goals in Carlson's absence. In a team navigating offensive transition, it's pivotal that the special teams step up and perform when required. Three toughest games on the schedule: Georgia The two-time reigning national champions, the Georgia Bulldogs, are set to visit the Plains for the 128th installment of the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry. Personally, this is my favorite game of the year, though the past two decades have largely favored Georgia, with Auburn securing only five wins since 2003 (painful to acknowledge). However, this year might bring about a shift. Auburn could potentially enter this game with a 4-0 record, and Jordan-Hare Stadium promises to be an extremely formidable venue for Georgia, unlike any they've encountered in the past couple of years. The magic of Jordan-Hare is undeniable, yet it might not be enough this time. Georgia boasts an incredibly robust defense, and Auburn's challenge will be to amass sufficient offense for victory. Auburn's chances might hinge on a turnover-rich performance from Georgia, coupled with an effective containment of Georgia's offense. While Auburn might cover the spread, I remain doubtful that they'll emerge victorious. at LSU LSU, under the leadership of Brian Kelly, made a rapid comeback in his debut season, indicating that their resurgence was no mere coincidence. It's noteworthy that some initially underestimated Kelly due to his Notre Dame background, but his recruiting and coaching prowess have silenced any doubts. While their West Division victory over Alabama could be seen as a close call, their overall performance reflects a significant improvement. With eight returning offensive players and seven defensive returnees, LSU's defense, led by sophomore standout Harold Perkins, is poised to strengthen further. Historically, winning in Baton Rouge has been a formidable challenge for Auburn, and they'll need to overcome this hurdle to secure a victory on the road. Alabama Considering Alabama as a less formidable opponent than LSU might sound surprising, but it's a perspective worth exploring. While Alabama is undoubtedly stacked with talent, their aura of invincibility has somewhat diminished. Recent years have revealed a shift from an all-time dominant force to a merely great college football team. With the departure of Bryce Young, who single-handedly defined their offense, and a shift in power towards Georgia, Alabama's identity has evolved. Auburn has managed to upset the Crimson Tide in Jordan-Hare Stadium multiple times over the last several encounters, and these victories carry significant weight. The 2023 Tigers face an uphill battle, but the familiar surroundings of Jordan-Hare might create the perfect setting for another upset. Amidst the excitement surrounding Auburn football, it's essential to recognize the challenges posed by their demanding schedule. Fortunately, the Tigers have been granted a relatively lenient non-conference schedule, featuring matchups against UMass, Samford, and New Mexico State. These games should provide opportunities for building confidence and providing reps for Robby Ashford and Holden Geriner. The visit to Berkeley, California, to face Cal will serve as an intriguing experience for both the fans and the team, with Auburn likely to fare well in the contest. A road trip to College Station marks the first significant test of the season, as Auburn takes on Texas A&M, a team poised for resurgence after a regression year. Beyond this point, the season's trajectory becomes less predictable, hinging on the performance of a team that's still finding its rhythm. The clash with Ole Miss, led by the Hugh Freeze and Lane Kiffin storyline, could emerge as a pivotal game, revealing Auburn's identity and potential. Hostilities against Mississippi State, followed by road trips to Nashville and Fayetteville, further shape the season's narrative. Success in these pivotal games could set the stage for a promising season. As always, the climax of the season arrives with the 88th Iron Bowl on November 25th. While the schedule presents significant challenges, it also offers manageable segments. With three games to iron out the kinks before entering conference play, Auburn has the opportunity to host its two biggest rivals in an electrifying atmosphere. The bye week ahead of the LSU matchup serves as a strategic advantage, enabling Auburn to build momentum as they approach the latter part of the season. Considering the intangibles and the potential for emotional and confident play, Auburn's ceiling might be a 10-2 record. On the flip side, a 6-6 record might represent the floor, but it's a reasonable outcome for a team in rebuilding mode. My prediction leans towards a 9-3 (5-3) regular season finish, with the Tigers securing a victory over a key rival. The synergy of coaching excellence, emotional drive, and the support of the fan base could make Auburn a formidable contender in the SEC West.