AUEng84 0 Posted December 19, 2004 Share Posted December 19, 2004 Here is an updated version of the spreadsheet to predict college football games, just in time for the bowls. Click the link -> NCAA Football Predictor V2.0 4.8 MB. Included you will find: Bowl Predictions, Top 25, Power, Conference, and Strength of Schedule Rankings, Predict a Score of any 2 teams home, away or on a neutral site, complete stats for every Div 1 team with links to the NCAA stats site, and a Navigation page to quickly jump to any team's page. Can't Beat Me Challenge! See if you can improve any of the performance of the spreadsheet by adjusting parameters in YELLOW on the PARAMETERS tab. The best performance is shown in GREEN. Your current performance is shown in BLUE next to the GREEN for an easy check. Prizes for anyone who can get the "Beat The Spread % above 62.3%, the total number correct greater than 1098, the % correct greater than 84.4% or the average of the absolute error less than 11.02. Here is the best performance I have so far: Total Correct - 1098 % Correct - 84.4% Average of Absolute value of Error - 11.02 Beat Spread - 62.3% (114 games tested) # Teams Schedule Predicted 100% Correct - 25 # Teams Schedule Predicted >70% Correct - 102 out of 117 Contact If you want to contact me outside this forum use: ted_thompson61@hotmail.com How it Works The spreadsheet uses the teams ranking (1-117) in several NCAA categories and weights them according to their importance to winning football games. They are scaled to the average number of points scored in NCAA football and adjusted twice for strength of schedule (in case you piled up gaudy stats against inferior teams). There is a Parameters page where you can adjust a variety of parameters such as home field advantage, strength of schedule weighting, etc. to improve performance. Conference Weightings If you think a conference is weak or strong, you can adjust this accordingly. If you think it is a weak conference you might set that to 0.9. If you think it is strong you might set it to 1.03. This version has the conferences weighted. I don't claim these are correct, but they do improve performance. DISCLAIMER Look, I already know it does not show Auburn beating Oklahoma or USC. I started this to be my own UNBIASED rating system and I leave the parameters where they fall to predict the most games correctly and minimize the error. I STILL think Auburn would find a way to beat either of these teams if given a chance, but this has turned into a fun project in itself and makes watching any game fun to see if I have predicted it correctly. I think Auburn should be National Champions if they take care of VT! ------------------------------------------------------- Merry Christmas, War Eagle and Enjoy! 12-0 SEC Champs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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