Prediction: Reid Is Toast in Nevada

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May 21, 2006

Las Vegas Review-Journal

SHERMAN FREDERICK: When Harry met Nancy

In 50-plus months, Nevada voters will march to the polls and replace Sen. Harry Reid, thus ending one of the longer, more powerful political runs in state history.

When it happens, political wiseguys will remember that Sen. Reid's undoing came early in his last term when he became a big shot in the Democratic Party and quickly morphed into someone Nevada voters did not recognize -- his political girlfriend in the House, uber-liberal Rep. Nancy Pelosi of California.

Now, I know that some will take issue with this scenario. They will suggest that because the Review-Journal has been a periodic (some will say constant, but they would be wrong) critic of Nevada's senior senator over the years, I, as publisher of that "conservative rag," am therefore unable to clearly see the future.

In other words, my prediction of Harry's political demise is more hope than insight.

For those who want to see it that way, be my guest. But before putting your head back in the sand, let me first point out that the Review-Journal has endorsed Sen. Reid every time he has run for the U.S. Senate. And second, I find Harry, as an individual, magnetic -- by that I mean I am very attracted to one side of him and very repulsed by the other.

For example, I have hiked the desert with "blue jeans" Harry and listened to him passionately expound the virtues of mining, advocate appropriate wilderness areas and unashamedly defend the absolute need for putting federally held land in and around Las Vegas into private hands.

I like that politically incorrect guy.

Then, I see some other fella on C-SPAN and "Meet the Press." This other guy walks and talks like a lily-livered coward on terrorism, a crass political player on Social Security, a mute on abortion and family issues and Ted Kennedy on taxation.

I don't like that guy. And, I believe, most Nevadans are with me on that.

Nevadans who see Sen. Reid exercise his position as the Democratic leader of the Senate don't see the hardscrabble conservative Mormon from Searchlight. They see a political transvestite who forsakes his home state to kowtow to the wildly liberal wing of the Democratic Party. When Harry meets Nancy on the national stage, they seem indistinguishable. Not because she's him, but because him's she. I know that's not proper grammar, but it is a correct assessment from a Nevada perspective.

You can already color Reid the hue of burnt toast in rural Nevada. Harry has never done well in the cow counties, even when he wasn't slipping into Nancy's clothes and make-up.

His stronghold is in Las Vegas, where he enjoys the unblinking support of labor. Because of his national stature as minority leader, he also garners much support from the captains of gaming. After all, it can't hurt the casino industry to have a sympathetic ear in such a high place.

And, while it is not the political force it was 20 years ago, being a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints is still an overall positive in Las Vegas.

All of this firm political ground in Nevada, however, softens each and every time Harry dresses like Nancy.

An LDS friend who has a proclivity to defend Harry admitted that it is getting harder to do so. "Eventually," he said, "silence on family values (read: abortion, same-sex marriage, etc.) isn't golden."

As for labor, Sen. Reid could probably come out in favor of copulation between humans and dogs and still get the support of union executives. Work-a-day union members, however, are another story. Those folks who work hard for their money and count pennies to raise a family in Las Vegas want real paycheck relief, not tax-till-they-bleed federal programs.

Casino support is good for cash, which is important for any politician, but there is some evidence of a growing backlash within the electorate against gaming industry support. Also, the instant that polls begin to show any doubt in Sen. Reid's re-election, gaming money splinters. If there is one thing casino management knows how to do, it is how to hedge a bet.

And finally, Harry Reid has never been a thoroughbred racehorse on the track of Nevada politics. He's been more like a stubborn mule who never gives up, never gives in. And, in the heat of past races, he's been known to kick a few opponents in the head.

"Landslide Harry" is used to close races. Races that can be decided by a few thousand, and even a few hundred votes. But those were races before Harry became the top Democratic dog in the U.S. Senate. Before he disappeared as a conservative Democrat from Nevada. Before he started eyeing Nancy Pelosi's wardrobe.

Nevadans elected the Harry I've hiked the desert with in blue jeans and dusty work boots. But on national TV they see a guy in a capri and sandals.

Not pretty.

And, more to the point, not electable in Nevada.

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