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What If They Did The Smart Thing?


AUesquire

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Relatively serious discussion here only.

Barring a complete collapse by our neighbors to the northwest, I think CMFS remains to fight another year. But, what if they actually do something totally uncalled for and show him the door in favor of .....

Bobby Petrino

Butch Davis

Lou Holth (I keed B) )

You get the idea though. Someone with some real credibility with the ability to turn around a program and put a top notch product on the field. Could they come in and be an instant success or is the pressure too much given the expectations and media around here?

As for our resident Bama fans, what would you think about it if the administration came out and said, "Bobby Petrino is signed for the 07' season"? Would you be excited about it or would you still feel like they should stay the course with Shula. Many have defended him and proclaim to be satisfied with the direction of the program. Would that feeling be the same if you were told you were getting one of the hottest coaches out there?

It IS a possibility we may be discussing at length in the next couple of months. I think he stays another year, but if they lose to UT, LSU and/or Auburn, CMFS may be looking for a coordinator's job somewhere.

Also, do you think the admins at Bama have the ability to go out an make the right hire?

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I was banned from some bama boards during the last coaching hire fiasco, for putting the blame on Malfunction, and calling for his head. I think it would be another 3 ring circus, with Moore in center ring. He and the power brokers in TTown, are the problem. Until the tide sees this, No credible coach goes there IMO.

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If they were to get a Petrino, or someone of his caliber, I would say that they probably could come in and be an instant success. Hell, even Terry Bowden did that. There is enough talent at the skill positions for them to be better than they are currently. Not MNC or even SEC challenging talent, but they could be a major factor with some life pumped into them from a dynamic coach.

However, were they to fire Coach Effin, that would not look very promising to any possible new coach. I would think they would have to go after an "up-and-coming" coach that takes a risk for some possible great rewards. I do not think that any established HC in a major program would be interested just simply because of the pressure the fan base puts on them.

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Not only that, but with the serious lack of institutional discipline, and the character issues that are currently visible, a new coach would have to do what CTT did after the Tater Tot debacle - come in and clean house. Coaches, players, etc. - no one would be exempt. And that would most likely result in a year or two like CTT first had at AUburn - and my opinion is that the bammer nation wouldn't look to the future and would instead demand immediate results without taking the time to correct the obvious flaws in the program. Talent is not enough to win it. It has taken CTT every minute of his time at Auburn to create a program we can all look to with pride. The bammer faithful would have to suck it up a while longer to get the program back to where it should be, and I just don't believe they have the patience - not the rational fans, but the dirt road bunch who want to win at all costs, and expect miracles.

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Not only that, but with the serious lack of institutional discipline, and the character issues that are currently visible, a new coach would have to do what CTT did after the Tater Tot debacle - come in and clean house. Coaches, players, etc. - no one would be exempt. And that would most likely result in a year or two like CTT first had at AUburn - and my opinion is that the bammer nation wouldn't look to the future and would instead demand immediate results without taking the time to correct the obvious flaws in the program. Talent is not enough to win it. It has taken CTT every minute of his time at Auburn to create a program we can all look to with pride. The bammer faithful would have to suck it up a while longer to get the program back to where it should be, and I just don't believe they have the patience - not the rational fans, but the dirt road bunch who want to win at all costs, and expect miracles.

I hear they are good at this.

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Relatively serious discussion here only.

Barring a complete collapse by our neighbors to the northwest, I think CMFS remains to fight another year. But, what if they actually do something totally uncalled for and show him the door in favor of .....

Bobby Petrino

Butch Davis

The Tide replacing Shula?!? NNNNNOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!

Oh, you wanted serious discussion. Well, in all seriousness, I think barring so major misstep at Auburn, we are in good shape for a while. Shula is not a horrible coach, he is just not a great coach. He is a bit out of his league in the SEC and as long as he is in Tuscaloosa, Auburn should have the better program (not saying we will win every year, just that year-in and year-out, we have things in much better shape.) But he can still win some games and I think they will stick w/ him for another year. If he manages to beat Auburn, he will be safe for two years. If he loses to us twice, he will probably get his walking papers.

As for getting a new coach, I don't think that anyone who had success at a major program would want to go to Bama. It is a good job, but the fans are rabid and expect miracles and there is constant pressure. There are other programs that are in better shape and have a more supportive atmosphere that a truly "A-List" coach would prefer to go to. I think they would have to gamble on an up and comer and that usually takes a few years to kick in.

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it'll be hard to sell dumping shula after this season unless the tide comes out and lays an egg the rest of the season.

he's coming off of probation with a 10-win season, and will have a winning season this year as well (possibly 8-10 wins again). given the circumstances, how would they justify dumping shula short of a few bricks through his office window?

the tide needs to lose badly to the 3 big teams they have left, as well as possibly lose to someone they shouldn't lose to before they start talking about dumping him this season.

he REALLY needs to beat auburn this year...that'd cure a lot of what ails the big$$ people over at the capstone.

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The smart thing is to keep the guy whos 15-4 in the last 19 games. Who's only hitting the 85 man roster limit because he has a bunch of walkons. Who is 5-2 in what everyone KNEW was a rebuilding year.

Last year he had some decent talent to work with, and went 10-2 and a top 10 finish. The smart thing would be to stick with him long enough for him to field a team with some depth and quality starters...to see what he can do.

It took CTT 6 years to field a team that won 10 games. And in 7 seasons he's only fielded ONE team that DIDNT lose at least 3 games.

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The smart thing is to keep the guy whos 15-4 in the last 19 games. Who's only hitting the 85 man roster limit because he has a bunch of walkons. Who is 5-2 in what everyone KNEW was a rebuilding year.

Last year he had some decent talent to work with, and went 10-2 and a top 10 finish. The smart thing would be to stick with him long enough for him to field a team with some depth and quality starters...to see what he can do.

It took CTT 6 years to field a team that won 10 games. And in 7 seasons he's only fielded ONE team that DIDNT lose at least 3 games.

Hell yes. I'm with BG: keep Shula at Alabama for as long as possible.

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The smart thing is to keep the guy whos 15-4 in the last 19 games. Who's only hitting the 85 man roster limit because he has a bunch of walkons. Who is 5-2 in what everyone KNEW was a rebuilding year.

Last year he had some decent talent to work with, and went 10-2 and a top 10 finish. The smart thing would be to stick with him long enough for him to field a team with some depth and quality starters...to see what he can do.

It took CTT 6 years to field a team that won 10 games. And in 7 seasons he's only fielded ONE team that DIDNT lose at least 3 games.

Hell yes. I'm with BG: keep Shula at Alabama for as long as possible.

sign me up for this as well.... In fact...let's petition the BOT at Auburn to start paying shulas salary so he stays at UAT forever...

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I dont think the first two against AU were Shula's fault. I mean you cant HONESTLY blame him for losing to AU's BEST team in their history when he started the game with a bunch of 3rd teamers.

Last year was totaly on shula. He had enough talent to win that game. But didnt prepare his kids. While most of that loss should go on the neck of Bob Connelly the oline coach...ultimately shula is responsible.

This year, i expected us to not beat AU. But now i think we've got a pretty good shot at winning that one. If we lose this year and next year to AU...and shula doesnt win a bunch of big time games between now and then...yes he'll be shown the door. And in my mind it would be justified. 0-3 against AU (when its his fault). Is a big deal.

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I dont think the first two against AU were Shula's fault. I mean you cant HONESTLY blame him for losing to AU's BEST team in their history when he started the game with a bunch of 3rd teamers.

Last year was totaly on shula. He had enough talent to win that game. But didnt prepare his kids. While most of that loss should go on the neck of Bob Connelly the oline coach...ultimately shula is responsible.

This year, i expected us to not beat AU. But now i think we've got a pretty good shot at winning that one. If we lose this year and next year to AU...and shula doesnt win a bunch of big time games between now and then...yes he'll be shown the door. And in my mind it would be justified. 0-3 against AU (when its his fault). Is a big deal.

If the proverbial egg is laid against UT, LSU and AU...does he stand a chance of staying? Personally, I don't think he'll lose all 3 but if he does, I think a change is coming.

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I don't think a well-established coach from a major (i.e., Petrino, etc.) would be that eager to jump into the Tuscaloosa "mal"strom (pun intended!), but I could be wrong. I think Bama has developed a reputation for being a coach turnstyle where the powers-that-be are too impatient and too quick to turn on a coach.

In the post-Bear era, they have had six coaches in 24 years (not counting Mike Price who never coached a game): Perkins-4 yrs, Curry-3 yrs, Stallings-7 yrs, Dubose-4 yrs, Franchione-2 yrs, and Shula-in 4th yr. On the average, then, each coach has had 24/6 = 4 seasons. In other words, on the average since Bryant, Bama coaches were lucky to see a single class of their own recruits graduate.

Or looking from the players' viewpoint: In 24 years, only 6 recruiting classes (or 25%) have seen the same head coach for four years of their career: Perkins' '83 freshmen; Stallings' freshmen of '90, '91, '92, & '93; and Dubose's '97 freshmen. [because of his late start in 2003, Shula's first recruits were the freshmen of 2004--he'll more than likely make it through 2007 before being canned, and can join the club.]

I'm not claiming every one of those departures was necessarily a bad thing or Bama's fault, but it has to give potential coaching candidates pause to wonder if they'll even see their first recruiting class graduate. Dropping Shula now, after the relative measures of success BG cites, would just reinforce that image.

IMO, a more likely scenario would be that they stumble upon a young, but talented coach on the rise who's still somewhat under the radar but looking for a major school at which to make a name for himself--a Stoops, Tuberville, Richt, or Petrino before they were household names. I think that's my greatest concern about Shula being dropped and a big part of why I hope he sticks around for a long time.

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uat hired flipper because he was the ONLY "coach" with a "name" that would actually TAKE the "job". (You know it, I know it, THEY know it.)

NO coach that is worth a "flip" is gonna' walk into west vance so long as the good old boys are runnin' the show. THAT will NOT change any time soon. (Davis, Petrino, etc..can all get GOOD jobs at GOOD schools that have a GOOD fan base.) Thus, status quo for the unwashed masses.

Ain't it grand!

Any questions?

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I don't think a well-established coach from a major (i.e., Petrino, etc.) would be that eager to jump into the Tuscaloosa "mal"strom (pun intended!), but I could be wrong. I think Bama has developed a reputation for being a coach turnstyle where the powers-that-be are too impatient and too quick to turn on a coach.

In the post-Bear era, they have had six coaches in 24 years (not counting Mike Price who never coached a game): Perkins-4 yrs, Curry-3 yrs, Stallings-7 yrs, Dubose-4 yrs, Franchione-2 yrs, and Shula-in 4th yr. On the average, then, each coach has had 24/6 = 4 seasons. In other words, on the average since Bryant, Bama coaches were lucky to see a single class of their own recruits graduate.

Or looking from the players' viewpoint: In 24 years, only 6 recruiting classes (or 25%) have seen the same head coach for four years of their career: Perkins' '83 freshmen; Stallings' freshmen of '90, '91, '92, & '93; and Dubose's '97 freshmen. [because of his late start in 2003, Shula's first recruits were the freshmen of 2004--he'll more than likely make it through 2007 before being canned, and can join the club.]

I'm not claiming every one of those departures was necessarily a bad thing or Bama's fault, but it has to give potential coaching candidates pause to wonder if they'll even see their first recruiting class graduate. Dropping Shula now, after the relative measures of success BG cites, would just reinforce that image.

IMO, a more likely scenario would be that they stumble upon a young, but talented coach on the rise who's still somewhat under the radar but looking for a major school at which to make a name for himself--a Stoops, Tuberville, Richt, or Petrino before they were household names. I think that's my greatest concern about Shula being dropped and a big part of why I hope he sticks around for a long time.

Great observations. Honestly, we kid around about signing CMFS to a long term contract, but that's because he hasn't shown anything to make the rest of the league fear his program. The wins Bama gets are based on staunch defense and conservative offensive playcalling...counting on doing enough at the end to win the game. I just can't see CMFS approaching it any other way. I make no bones about it, I don't want them to go and find the "Right" coach.

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Another thought: While I don't want Flipper to go anywhere, keeping the suspense regarding his future in the news has to take some toll on their recruiting. So the best option for us, IMO, is to have Shula stay for a long time, but have him "on the hot seat" continually so recruits will be concerned about his/their future.

Of course, so far, recruiting may be the only area where he has shown consistent success.

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