THE IRAQ MUTINY?

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At their mercy? Members of the Mahdi army — the militia loyal to radical cleric

Moqtada al-Sadr — on parade in Basra last week. The Baker plan for pulling out

U.S. combat troops would leave American military trainers behind, exposed to

slaughter or capture by Iraqi forces like this.

THE IRAQ MUTINY?

BAKER COMMISSION WOULD LEAVE OUR TROOPS EXPOSED

RALPH PETERS

December 3, 2006 -- THE proposal to embed more American military trainers with Iraqi units makes sense, but creates a grave danger: the pros pect of a coordinated revolt among Shias in uniform who slaughter or take hostage thousands of our dispersed troops.

The best deterrent is the back-up presence of our own Army and Marine combat formations. As long as our cavalry can ride to the rescue, the prospect of a sectarian mutiny to "teach America a lesson" and humiliate us remains low.

Now early word has it that The Fabulous Baker Boys (straight from the political boneyard and known formally as the Iraq Study Group) will recommend withdrawing U.S. combat troops from Iraq by 2008, while leaving behind our embedded trainers and vulnerable support units.

This is the sort of nonsense that sounds great to civilians with no military experience. To veterans, it's nuts.

THE problem here is the com position of the panel headed by former Secretary of State James Baker. Not only does it drag yesteryear's Washington insiders out of the crypt, its make-up reveals the disgraceful extent to which our governing "elite" despises those in uniform.

Why on earth wasn't a single retired military officer appointed to the the Iraq Study Group? We're at war, for Heaven's sake. Briefly interviewing a few generals is no substitute for a steadying military voice amid the committee's naifs.

Washington insiders pretend to respect our troops but continue to believe that those in uniform are second-raters and that any political hack can design better war plans than those who've dedicated their lives to military service. This is arrogance soaring through the clouds - and a disheartening replay of the shut-out-military-advice approach to warfare that got us into such a mess in Iraq.

The administration should've swallowed its pride and asked retired Army Chief of Staff Gen. Eric Shinseki to sit on the panel. Or Gen. Barry McCaffrey, who knows how to think and fight. Or just a lieutenant with a combat patch on his shoulder.

Instead, we got Vernon Jordan (presumably, the token lobbyist) and retired Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor. Jordan may know K Street inside out, but he doesn't know a thing about the streets of Baghdad. O'Connor was a terrific Supreme, but she has no background in military matters, the Middle East or international affairs.

WHAT the Iraq Study Group does have is a staff with long ties to the Saudis. And Baker's own relationship with the Saudi royal family has been so accommodating that he often seemed more of a Saudi lobbyist than a U.S. official. He's got plenty of time for billionaire sheiks and princes, but none for American officers.

This is going to be Saudi Arabia's report (and Syria's, too - Baker never met a dictator he didn't like). Even Iran may get a nice slice of the pie. The study's underlying strategy will be to re-establish the sort of phony stability that gave us the Shah of Iran and Saddam Hussein - both horses backed by Baker.

The composition of the study group was just a set-up. Baker didn't want experts who could challenge his "experience." And the much-praised bipartisan nature of the panel is meaningless when every member is from the old, failed guard and the youngest member is in his late 60s. Think they're going to produce innovative thinking and fresh ideas?

So we're left with another panel of amateurs designing a military strategy - this one recommending the withdrawal of our combat troops, who constitute the only insurance plan we have in Iraq. Baker would then leave behind embedded trainers and vulnerable logistics bases.

Gee, thanks.

The model for what could result comes from the English-speaking world's history with Islam. In mid-19th-century India, as the British sahibs kidded themselves that their "loyal" subordinates adored them, Muslim (and Hindu) East India Company troops staged widespread, coordinated attacks that butchered "embedded" officers, government officials and their families.

"Mercy" wasn't in the mutineers vocabulary. The torture of captives was common. Sound like Iraq to anybody?

The Sepoy Mutiny was a close-run thing. Only the presence of British regiments saved the day. Wherever they had substantial numbers of regulars to call on, the Brits were able to hold off the masses of religious fanatics until additional forces arrived from elsewhere in the empire.

Unlike our politically correct leadership in Iraq, yesteryear's Brits responded to savagery with savagery. The result was six decades of internal peace in India.

Of course, not a few American officers would dismiss the possibility that "their" Iraqis could turn on them. That's exactly how the British officers felt.

Our trainers would put up a tough fight against any such revolt. But they could only fight as long as they had ammunition. Even the best Special Forces A-team we've got couldn't hold on indefinitely against a battalion led by fanatics.

LET'S not permit vanity-in toxicated Washington has- beens to dictate military policy. If we've learned nothing else from Iraq (and we should've learned plenty by now), it's that the details of military operations must be left to professionals: Tell the generals what you want them to do, Mr. President - then let them figure out the best way to do it.

Only a ship of fools could launch the recommendation that we address the problems of violence-ravaged Iraq by withdrawing our combat troops and leaving behind tens of thousands of hostages in uniform.

Ralph Peters is a retired Army officer and the author of "Never Quit The Fight."

LINK

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Here is another perspective, one from a former Secretary of Defense.

Guess who this is?

ILLUSTRATIVE OPTIONS

Above the Line: (Many of these options could and, in a number of cases, should be done in combination with others)

¶Publicly announce a set of benchmarks agreed to by the Iraqi Government and the U.S. — political, economic and security goals — to chart a path ahead for the Iraqi government and Iraqi people (to get them moving) and for the U.S. public (to reassure them that progress can and is being made).

¶Significantly increase U.S. trainers and embeds, and transfer more U.S. equipment to Iraqi Security forces (ISF), to further accelerate their capabilities by refocusing the assignment of some significant portion of the U.S. troops currently in Iraq.

¶Initiate a reverse embeds program, like the Korean Katusas, by putting one or more Iraqi soldiers with every U.S. and possibly Coalition squad, to improve our units’ language capabilities and cultural awareness and to give the Iraqis experience and training with professional U.S. troops.

¶Aggressively beef up the Iraqi MOD and MOI, and other Iraqi ministries critical to the success of the ISF — the Iraqi Ministries of Finance, Planning, Health, Criminal Justice, Prisons, etc. — by reaching out to U.S. military retirees and Reserve/National Guard volunteers (i.e., give up on trying to get other USG Departments to do it.)

¶Conduct an accelerated draw-down of U.S. bases. We have already reduced from 110 to 55 bases. Plan to get down to 10 to 15 bases by April 2007, and to 5 bases by July 2007.

¶Retain high-end SOF capability and necessary support structure to target Al Qaeda, death squads, and Iranians in Iraq, while drawing down all other Coalition forces, except those necessary to provide certain key enablers for the ISF.

¶Initiate an approach where U.S. forces provide security only for those provinces or cities that openly request U.S. help and that actively cooperate, with the stipulation being that unless they cooperate fully, U.S. forces would leave their province.

¶Stop rewarding bad behavior, as was done in Fallujah when they pushed in reconstruction funds, and start rewarding good behavior. Put our reconstruction efforts in those parts of Iraq that are behaving, and invest and create havens of opportunity to reward them for their good behavior. As the old saying goes, “If you want more of something, reward it; if you want less of something, penalize it.” No more reconstruction assistance in areas where there is violence.

¶Position substantial U.S. forces near the Iranian and Syrian borders to reduce infiltration and, importantly, reduce Iranian influence on the Iraqi Government.

¶Withdraw U.S. forces from vulnerable positions — cities, patrolling, etc. — and move U.S. forces to a Quick Reaction Force (QRF) status, operating from within Iraq and Kuwait, to be available when Iraqi security forces need assistance.

¶Begin modest withdrawals of U.S. and Coalition forces (start “taking our hand off the bicycle seat”), so Iraqis know they have to pull up their socks, step up and take responsibility for their country.

¶Provide money to key political and religious leaders (as Saddam Hussein did), to get them to help us get through this difficult period.

¶Initiate a massive program for unemployed youth. It would have to be run by U.S. forces, since no other organization could do it.

¶Announce that whatever new approach the U.S. decides on, the U.S. is doing so on a trial basis. This will give us the ability to readjust and move to another course, if necessary, and therefore not “lose.”

¶Recast the U.S. military mission and the U.S. goals (how we talk about them) — go minimalist.

Below the Line (less attractive options):

¶Continue on the current path.

¶Move a large fraction of all U.S. Forces into Baghdad to attempt to control it.

¶Increase Brigade Combat Teams and U.S. forces in Iraq substantially.

¶Set a firm withdrawal date to leave. Declare that with Saddam gone and Iraq a sovereign nation, the Iraqi people can govern themselves. Tell Iran and Syria to stay out.

¶Assist in accelerating an aggressive federalism plan, moving towards three separate states — Sunni, Shia, and Kurd.

¶Try a Dayton-like process.

Rummy, from his leak memo. If only they had implemented these policies from the beginning. Hindsight is 20/20, but when you're blind it does no good. Dumb@$$.

Foresight is mandatory for success in any and all endeavors. Repeating the same mistakes expecting different results is defined as "insanity." Any moron can look back, but it takes a man to plan and prepare. Finally, after careful consideration, I have concluded that there are no men in the White House, not even Unca Dick. Colin Powell was the last man to work there.