Auburn Defense - 2011 - 2012

[lca408 367]

Last Spring, I compiled lots of statistics and information about the Auburn defense of 2009, how it compared to the Auburn defenses of the previous few years, and what we could possibly expect from 2010. My predictions weren't completely off base but they weren't exactly on the money, so here I am again, just having some fun and throwing out some opinions which are entirely my own on the product that is the current Auburn defense and how that unit can, if possible, improve on what we saw this past year. Like last Spring, this will be a four part series.

To begin with, let's admit the obvious: Auburn's defense is not good. There are plenty of reasons or excuses as to why this defense is no good. Many have opined that the incredible youth of this defense has held it back all year. Many have also said that the coaching at the highest level - defensive coordinator and head coach - have failed our talented Tigers at every turn. Others claim that the offense of Gus Malzahn has simply made our defense too soft, and that when the offense struggled this year, the defense had no other choice but to fold. I'll save my conclusions for the fourth and final post about the defense, but to start with, let's acknowledge that much of what has been said is very true. This Auburn defense, like the rest of the 2011 team, is very young and, on the whole, inexperienced. This defense depends, as does any defense, on the abilities of its coaches to put the guys in the right spots, and at this, we must admit that Roof, Chizik, Pelton, Thigpen, and Lolley have made several mistakes at times this year. We also admit that the Auburn offense led by Gus Malzahn has been subpar compared not only to last year's success, but to all other seasons in coach Malzahn's resume as an offensive coordinator.

We must peel away the layers of assumptions and perception to try and get at what makes this unit tick. Stats are always a good way to examine things, even though stats can be made to lie, no offense Stat Tiger. So in this first installment, we shall look at the basic statistics of the 2011 Auburn defense, and how it stacks up nationally, in conference play, and compared to Auburn defenses of the past decade.

Disclaimer: The stats presented here were compiled prior to the SEC Championship game played today and do not include LSU's or Georgia's stats from today.

Part I:

The 2011 Auburn defense made its debut against the Aggies of Utah State. The young Tigers struggled, giving up 38 points to the underdog Aggies at Jordan-Hare, before the offense rallied to win late. Auburn surrendered 34 points and 531 yards to conference foe Mississippi State the following week, though Auburn did manage a pick six turnover by Demetruce McNeal. Auburn forced another turnover the next week against Clemson on the road, yet the defense could not get off the field giving up 624 yards in a 38-24 loss. After a 30-14 victory over Florida Atlantic, Auburn traveled to Columbia to beat South Carolina 16-13, giving up just 129 rushing yards to the Gamecocks. Auburn held the Florida Gators to just 6 points in Jordan-Hare and 194 total yards, but not before the Arkansas Razorbacks dismantled Auburn in Fayetteville the previous week 38-14. #1 ranked LSU hammered the Tigers in a 45-10 rout in Death Valley, racking up 219 passing yards, mostly on big plays downfield, and a strong 174 yard rushing effort. A 41-23 victory over anemic Ole Miss breathed life back into the Tigers, yet 2 weeks later, the Bulldogs of Athens stomped both the offense and defense in a 45-7 beatdown. The Tiger defense struggled at times against FBS Samford, yet eventually prevailed 35-16. Though the defense played hard at times against arch rival Alabama, Trent Richardson had a career day, leading the way for 213 rushing yards and a 42-14 Iron Bowl victory.

At the current moment, the 2011 Auburn defense is ranked 78th in the nation, giving up an average of 405.8 yards a game, 394 against SEC opponents, ahead of 5-7 Bowling Green at 79 and behind 3-9 Minnesota at 77. Though Auburn is officially ranked 11th out of 12 SEC teams for the 2011 season, against SEC opponents Auburn would place 10th, ahead of Kentucky and Ole Miss respectively. In regard to turnovers, Auburn is tied for 8th with Tennessee and Arkansas in turnover margin with 0.00. Not surprisingly, 3 of the best SEC teams - LSU, Georgia and Alabama - round out the top 3 in that order. Compared to the two previous years, the 2011 Auburn defense is statistically the worst of the 3 year Chizik era.

Year Yards Per SEC Game SEC Ranking

2009 - - - - - - - - - - 370.3 - - - - - - - - - - - - -11

2010 - - - - - - - - - - 370.1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - 9

2011 - - - - - - - - - - - 394 - - - - - - - - - - - - - 10

Compare this to the two previous seasons before Chizik arrived. Against SEC Opponents . . .

2007 - - - - - - - - - - 282.8 - - - - - - - - - - - - - 2

2008 - - - - - - - - - - - 315 - - - - - - - - - - - - - -7

Right now, we don't know for sure who our bowl opponent will be or how Auburn will fare against said opponent, but it is fair to say that, barring a completely dominating defensive effort, Auburn can likely do nothing to improve its statistical rankings. Even with a Florida game type effort in the bowl game, the fact that the 2011 defense was on the whole bad cannot be erased by one game. Of course, the Auburn players don't care too much about statistical rankings. What they do care about is the win/loss record - the only statistic that truly matters - 7-5. Better defensive play might have kept Auburn in 1 or 2 of the losses it suffered during the year, rather than allowing those games to turn into blowouts. Of course, we cannot completely discount the effort made by the Auburn defense in its two best games - against South Carolina and against Florida, teams that surprisingly rank in the middle of the SEC pack, with the Gamecocks ranked 5th and the Gators 7th in league scoring, both ahead of Auburn at 8th.

In my previous posts on defense, I described defensive impact plays as forced turnovers and tackles for loss/sacks. In Chizik's first two years on the Plains, Auburn averaged over 80 tackles for loss for the season - 77 in 2009 and 99 in 2010. In 2008 and 2007, the Tigers snagged about 75 each year. This year, Auburn ranks 8th in the SEC in TFLs at 69 on the season. (Georgia leads the conference in TFLs with 91 so far BTW) Auburn currently has 10 interceptions on the 2011 season, compared with 12 and 17 in 2010 and 2009 respectively, 8 short of the SEC leader South Carolina. 16 forced fumbles place Auburn in a tie for 2nd place with Mississippi State so far - with 11 fumbles recovered by the Orange and Blue.

Total defense is not always the best judge of a defense's worth. What is perhaps a more useful statistic to take stock in is the yards per play average. For the season, Auburn defenders have played through 855 opponent snaps. Through those 855 snaps, the Tigers are giving up 5.69 yards per play. Through 538 SEC opponent snaps, Auburn is allowing 5.86 yards per play. Compared to previous years:

Year Opponent Snaps Yards Per Play

2007 486 4.7

2008 515 4.9

2009 547 5.4

2010 578 5.8

2011 538 5.8

Though I will explore it in more detail in post #3, the offense's impact on defense can be tricky, depending on its success and its style. In the above statistics, we see a significant jump in opponent snaps from 2008 to 2009 and beyond. One would assume then that the style of offense run by Gus Malzahn would facilitate extra snaps for the opponent based on the up-tempo nature of the offense. Though 2009 was the only year so far that Auburn has consistently run the up-tempo, the snaps increased in 2010 despite the Auburn offense running the football much more than the previous year and playing more ball-control offense. The yards per play jumped from 5.4 to 5.8 between those two years, though the 2010 Auburn Tigers did play 1 additional game than their 2009 counterparts. In 2011, the number of snaps decreased, even lower than in 2009, yet the yards per play remained the same as 2010. Auburn simply gave up more yards over the course of the SEC season in 2011, and did it despite giving its conference opponents fewer opportunities on offense than the previous 2 years.

In my next post, I will evaluate the personnel of the 2011 edition of the Auburn defense, breaking down production and stats for each position on the field compared to their predecessors and peers in the SEC. I will also break down their effectiveness in the 4-3 scheme that Auburn runs, compared to other schemes.

Ryan

[Atticus 0]

Nice post. Looking forward to reading the rest of the series.

[musicitytiger 281]

I think you're on to something w/ looking at the number of snaps

[RunInRed 16,602]

Good stuff. Enjoyed reading this breakdown. Thanks Ryan.

[aucanucktiger 1,807]

Nice, thanks.

IMO a Chizik led team that's consistently bad over time on defense is simply bizarre. He's a very, very good defensive mind and recruiter w/ the record as a D coach to prove it. Maybe in this day & age HC's don't have time to also wet nurse coordinators like Spurrier as de facto OC @ UF.

This cracked me up. "At the current moment, the 2011 Auburn defense is ranked 78th in the nation, giving up an average of 405.8 yards a game, 394 against SEC opponents, ahead of 5-7 Bowling Green at 79 and behind 3-9 Minnesota at 77". We plucked Ted from the Golden Gophers to coach Auburn's D.