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StatTiger

FYI Note on 1st down, Part II

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1st down Production (2009, 2011 and 2015)

Yards per play on 1st down:

2009: 5.36 YPR / 6.92 YPP (77.1% run on 1st down)

2011: 4.86 YPR / 5.67 YPP (78.7% run on 1st down)

2015: 4.57 YPR / 7.95 YPP (77.1% run on 1st down)

  *** Run production continues to drop. 2015 appeared to be the season Auburn should have thrown more on 1st down based on yards per play. ***

Impact Play (15+ yards) Pct Passing on 1st down:

2009: 21.5%

2011: 11.8%

2015: 14.4%

Impact Play (10+ yards) Pct Running on 1st down:

2009: 13.4%

2011: 14.6%

2015: 12.2%

  *** Slightly better chance for impact play passing the ball on 1st down ***

1st down pct passing on 1st down:

2009: 26.9%

2011: 19.7%

2015: 27.8%

1st down pct running the football on 1st down:

2009: 12.7%

2011: 14.6%

2015: 12.9%

  *** Far greater chance of producing a 1st down on 1st down, throwing the football ***

Interesting note.... Because AU has been so run heavy on 1st down during the 3 seasons I outlined above, Gus Malzahn has been forced to be more balanced on 2nd down.

AU averaged more yards per play on 2nd down than on 1st down during all 3 seasons. That would be 5.38 yds per play on 1st down and 6.15 yds per play on 2nd down.

That is 78% run on 1st down and 59% on 2nd down. Opposing defenses can sell out to stop the run on 1st down based on trends but have to play more honest on 2nd down because there is a higher probability of a pass play on 2nd down.

If Malzahn would just open it up to 30% pass on 1st down, Auburn would be less predictable and 2nd down would be even more productive.

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3 minutes ago, doug3020 said:

We'll see what this week holds. Odds are it'll be more of the same. 

Could be.... We shall see.

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Stat-

Didn't you have a stat showing SW's numbers on 1st down when he was allowed to throw? Any idea what his QB rating was?

TIA.

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9 minutes ago, doug3020 said:

Stat-

Didn't you have a stat showing SW's numbers on 1st down when he was allowed to throw? Any idea what his QB rating was?

TIA.

151.7 last season. Nick Marshall was 129.1 in 2014.

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