HardcoreAU79 0 Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 This thread makes my head hurt ! Betting on AU is a sure fire way to win or lose money and be poorer for the anguish either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerProwl24 0 Posted April 24, 2012 Author Share Posted April 24, 2012 This thread makes my head hurt ! Betting on AU is a sure fire way to win or lose money and be poorer for the anguish either way. I understand it's not for everyone and I would advise not betting on your own team, but in this case it is a win/win or lose/lose scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rednilla 5,401 Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 This thread makes my head hurt ! Betting on AU is a sure fire way to win or lose money and be poorer for the anguish either way. I understand it's not for everyone and I would advise not betting on your own team, but in this case it is a win/win or lose/lose scenario. Only way I could see betting on a game Auburn was playing is if they were the underdog, because that way there's no way a win could disappoint me, and if we lose by less than the line then I get a pick-me-up after the loss...which, if you've ever been around me after Auburn loses, pick-me-ups are a good thing. I tend not to take it too well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronMan70 3,277 Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 Teams with lots of close wins the year before tend to decline. I'm not so sure I completely agree with the logic of this one; there's something to be said for knowing how to win the game when it comes down to it. At least in College football, I think some of the thinking there is that it usually takes an upper class team to win a lot of close games in one year. The next year, a team that needed those upper class players to win all those close games, will lose many of them so the results decline significantly. While true, it is also true that a team of Seniors that blows every one out can also have a significant decline the next year. But, the odds are indeed greater with the close win team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DyeEraTiger 0 Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 We could improve and wind up just the same as last year or worse. SEC games are just that tight. Didn't Bama go 10-3 in 2010 with a truly top 10 team, maybe a top 5 team? Last year we won all the close ones. Two trends, working in opposite directions.... Teams with lots of returning starters tend to improve. Teams with lots of close wins the year before tend to decline. Both apply to Auburn. I think this affirms what you (and I) seemed to agree upon in another thread DyeCamp. They (whoever they are) are putting the w line at 7.5, so apparently 8 will exceed expectations. BUT, and it's a fat but (no offense to any other large bottomed people on here other than myself intended), this number exists to make money, so they want people to bite on both sides of that number. I think it's more probable that we beat that number than fall short. And I don't know who we have the 1/2 game scheduled with anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Droxside 0 Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 I agree. The majority of sports bettors are trend players and trends have their place, but it is not as simple as made out here. It like flipping a coin within reason. You might flip it 100 times and get a 50/50 result, but it will not alternate meaning you might hit heads 4 of 5 times in a stretch and/or tails the same. I never base anything on blind trends, only use them as a tool. Some teams will decline after a good year and some will not. Research into the many factors regarding the 2012 team you might play has nothing to do with a trend that encompasses history of the sports, but instead the particular team you are researching and its many factors such as returning talent that stands to mature and a stable coaching staff among many other things. You can look at said team's recent history so long as the vital parts have been there for at least a few years and take that as one of many factors, but that is as far as I would take it. The way you stated your trend is much to liberal (not talking politics here) and all inclusive of outside factors regarding the sport itself, not your team, that simply do not matter here in my experience. Nothing personal, just the way it is... Droxside, I know you like to dab into these things, what do you think of my picks? The only two I'm not COMPLETELY sold on are Vandy and Moo State. These are my NFL picks: Panthers 8.5 over Bills 6.5 over Browns 6.5 under Saints 11.5 under Redskins 6.5 under Patriots 11.5 over I feel really strong about the Bills and Saints.... TigerProwl24...First I apologize for the late reply, not intentional just very busy and have not been around much lately. It would be wrong for me to comment too much on your plays as I do not play futures until a few weeks before pre-season in the NFL as so much can change between now and then and have not researched this season at all yet.. Having said that many do and fair well so it is just my way. Baseball and basketball are the moneymakers for grinders and my time regarding sports betting right now is on those two 98% of the time (although you might want to throw a small wager on a long shot in the Kentucky derby this Saturday to show, risk little, have fun and you could triple or more your money if you get lucky considering the huge field if your horse finishes in the money) . If I were to pick one without researching it would be New England over 11.5 based on history that is in place with the main core still there, they know how to win. Also would not count out the Saints solely based on recent events, but not advocating playing them either, that division is getting tough quickly. I also like the Panthers as Cam is a difference maker and they will surround him with enough talent to make a Superbowl within three years and it has already started to some degree. I do not trust the Bills (again, no research here, just knowledge of what appears to be in place), Browns will turn it around very soon to some degree, but you are probably safe this year under 6.5 and the Redskins will have growing pains with Griffin in the first year and an overrated in his own ego head coach. Do not let me sway anything you play as all this is off the top of my head and as I said I have not even thought about the NFL yet as well as the fact futures are unpredictable in the long run (in my opinion) so I play only a few. Probably not much help but I did want to answer you out of respect. Best of Luck....Droxside... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.