TigerProwl24 0 Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Here are my locks for the year.. Auburn 7.5 over +140(5 toughest games, 3 are at home after cupcakes/bye, 1 on a neutral site and at UAT) Miss State 7.5 over -120(I shake my head at the schedule. Will start out 6-1, only loss being AU) Texas A&M 7.5 under -160(Absolutely brutal schedule and a welcoming party is awaiting them in the SEC West) Vandy 6.5 over +140(Vandy has a favorable schedule if they can gain some MOMO, which Rodgers will) WVU 8.5 over -140(Hardest game is Oklahoma at home and DH's offense should run rampant again in the Big 12) Oregon vs Alabama- Total points matchup- Oregon +150(Won't even be close) USC vs LSU- Total Points matchup- USC -155(SEC defense>Pac 12 defense) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SumterAubie 3,033 Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 <tilts head at puter screen, trying to understand> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarDamn2010 183 Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Shakes head at above comment in complete agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Budapesttiger 2 Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Sign me up for head shaking, too. I read this earlier and started to post. But, I have absolutely no idea what any of this means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger n Miami AU83 25 Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Here are my locks for the year.. Auburn 7.5 over +140(5 toughest games, 3 are at home after cupcakes/bye, 1 on a neutral site and at UAT) Miss State 7.5 over -120(I shake my head at the schedule. Will start out 6-1, only loss being AU) Texas A&M 7.5 under -160(Absolutely brutal schedule and a welcoming party is awaiting them in the SEC West) Vandy 6.5 over +140(Vandy has a favorable schedule if they can gain some MOMO, which Rodgers will) WVU 8.5 over -140(Hardest game is Oklahoma at home and DH's offense should run rampant again in the Big 12) Oregon vs Alabama- Total points matchup- Oregon +150(Won't even be close) USC vs LSU- Total Points matchup- USC -155(SEC defense>Pac 12 defense) I will try to help with an explanation... The above are vegas lines for the upcoming season (though I do not know the source from the OP). The first one for example means Vegas thinks AU will win 7.5 games in 2012, but they think it is likely AU will win less than 7.5, so the +140 means the following: If you bet $100 that AU will win more than 7.5 games in 2012 (the over), you will be paid $140. So, you bet $100 that AU will win at least 8 games next year. If AU wins 8 games (or more), you win $140. If AU wins 7 games (or less) you lose $100. The other lines work the same way. MSU is 7.5 wins as well. However, Vegas thinks it is likely MSU will win at least 7.5. sO YOU HAVE TO BET $120 TO WIN $100 IF YOU TAKE MORE THAN 7.5 WINS FOR msu. hOPE THIS HELPS... (sorry for the caps locks mistake on the last line) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAU76 403 Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Auburn Over 7.5, +140, huh? That's a keeper!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger n Miami AU83 25 Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Yeah, AU over 7.5 plus 140 is strong. Gotta like that one. We have beaten Vegas's expectations EASILY every year Chizik has been here. 2009 was 6 wins, 2010 was 7.5 or 8, last year was 6, -150... Looks like another win this year for AU backers in Vegas if those odds are accurate. ETA: I went back and looked up the last 3 years to make sure the above is accurate. And it it regular season only, no bowls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aucpe 0 Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 As for the other matchups... The total points for OU vs bama and USC vs LSU is for which team scores the most points over the course of the year. Surely this must be for the 12 regular season games only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcm81 2 Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Are Vegas' odds regular season only, or final record after bowl game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger n Miami AU83 25 Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Are Vegas' odds regular season only, or final record after bowl game? It is regular season only. We have 6 games we should be strong favorites in: MSU, ULM, Ole Miss, Vandy, NMS, AL A&M. That would mean we would have to win two of: Clemson, LSU, Arky, Texas A&M, UGA, Bama. Of those 6, the 2 most winnable are Arky and A&M at home (I actually think we win both of those anyway). That would put us at 8 and win the bet regardless of the Clemson, LSU, UGA and Bama games - and even though we will be underdogs in all 4 of those games, only 1 is a road game. Not many teams we are not capable of beating in JH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DyeCampAlum 335 Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 We could improve and wind up just the same as last year or worse. SEC games are just that tight. Didn't Bama go 10-3 in 2010 with a truly top 10 team, maybe a top 5 team? Last year we won all the close ones. Two trends, working in opposite directions.... Teams with lots of returning starters tend to improve. Teams with lots of close wins the year before tend to decline. Both apply to Auburn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsande07 271 Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 We could improve and wind up just the same as last year or worse. SEC games are just that tight. Didn't Bama go 10-3 in 2010 with a truly top 10 team, maybe a top 5 team? Last year we won all the close ones. Two trends, working in opposite directions.... Teams with lots of returning starters tend to improve. Teams with lots of close wins the year before tend to decline. Both apply to Auburn. We "defied" this trend in 2011 (i.e. won close games in 2010 and then again in 2011), and hopefully we'll find a way to pull things out in 2012 as well. The statistical trend exists, but I don't think of winning close games as intrinsically based on chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rednilla 5,401 Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Teams with lots of close wins the year before tend to decline. I'm not so sure I completely agree with the logic of this one; there's something to be said for knowing how to win the game when it comes down to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Droxside 0 Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Teams with lots of close wins the year before tend to decline. I'm not so sure I completely agree with the logic of this one; there's something to be said for knowing how to win the game when it comes down to it. I agree. The majority of sports bettors are trend players and trends have their place, but it is not as simple as made out here. It like flipping a coin within reason. You might flip it 100 times and get a 50/50 result, but it will not alternate meaning you might hit heads 4 of 5 times in a stretch and/or tails the same. I never base anything on blind trends, only use them as a tool. Some teams will decline after a good year and some will not. Research into the many factors regarding the 2012 team you might play has nothing to do with a trend that encompasses history of the sports, but instead the particular team you are researching and its many factors such as returning talent that stands to mature and a stable coaching staff among many other things. You can look at said team's recent history so long as the vital parts have been there for at least a few years and take that as one of many factors, but that is as far as I would take it. The way you stated your trend is much to liberal (not talking politics here) and all inclusive of outside factors regarding the sport itself, not your team, that simply do not matter here in my experience. Nothing personal, just the way it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUcivE09 582 Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 So what happens when a team wins close games but also has their collective @$$es handed to them in 4 games? Id say that trend followed us into last season from 2010.......but just the opposite from 2009 to 2010. We had 4 close wins in 2010 that beat the brakes off of us last season. I wouldnt worry about the close games from Utah st and moo st coming back to haunt us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexava 6,974 Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 I say asses handed over 5x. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DyeCampAlum 335 Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 So what happens when a team wins close games but also has their collective @$$es handed to them in 4 games? Id say that trend followed us into last season from 2010.......but just the opposite from 2009 to 2010. We had 4 close wins in 2010 that beat the brakes off of us last season. I wouldnt worry about the close games from Utah st and moo st coming back to haunt us. If it were some generic team, I'd say that's a very bad sign. Very, very bad. It means they won more games than they "should" have the year before. In other threads I've posted that I believe our coaches are the reason we're winning games we used to lose. So I don't think it's random, and I'm not calling for 7-5. But in terms of generic probability, that's one factor oddsmakers take into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keesler 5,934 Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 So what happens when a team wins close games but also has their collective @$$es handed to them in 4 games? I wonder the same thing...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AuburnEngineer 0 Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Hoping to make a lot of money on betting the SEC this year. Although I hate the U of A , they made me lots of money last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerProwl24 0 Posted April 24, 2012 Author Share Posted April 24, 2012 Here are my locks for the year.. Auburn 7.5 over +140(5 toughest games, 3 are at home after cupcakes/bye, 1 on a neutral site and at UAT) Miss State 7.5 over -120(I shake my head at the schedule. Will start out 6-1, only loss being AU) Texas A&M 7.5 under -160(Absolutely brutal schedule and a welcoming party is awaiting them in the SEC West) Vandy 6.5 over +140(Vandy has a favorable schedule if they can gain some MOMO, which Rodgers will) WVU 8.5 over -140(Hardest game is Oklahoma at home and DH's offense should run rampant again in the Big 12) Oregon vs Alabama- Total points matchup- Oregon +150(Won't even be close) USC vs LSU- Total Points matchup- USC -155(SEC defense>Pac 12 defense) I will try to help with an explanation... The above are vegas lines for the upcoming season (though I do not know the source from the OP). The first one for example means Vegas thinks AU will win 7.5 games in 2012, but they think it is likely AU will win less than 7.5, so the +140 means the following: If you bet $100 that AU will win more than 7.5 games in 2012 (the over), you will be paid $140. So, you bet $100 that AU will win at least 8 games next year. If AU wins 8 games (or more), you win $140. If AU wins 7 games (or less) you lose $100. The other lines work the same way. MSU is 7.5 wins as well. However, Vegas thinks it is likely MSU will win at least 7.5. sO YOU HAVE TO BET $120 TO WIN $100 IF YOU TAKE MORE THAN 7.5 WINS FOR msu. hOPE THIS HELPS... (sorry for the caps locks mistake on the last line) That is correct and thanks for clearing that up, which I should've done in the OP. The lines are from 5dimes.com but they're the same in Vegas at most places for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerProwl24 0 Posted April 24, 2012 Author Share Posted April 24, 2012 Yeah, AU over 7.5 plus 140 is strong. Gotta like that one. We have beaten Vegas's expectations EASILY every year Chizik has been here. 2009 was 6 wins, 2010 was 7.5 or 8, last year was 6, -150... Looks like another win this year for AU backers in Vegas if those odds are accurate. ETA: I went back and looked up the last 3 years to make sure the above is accurate. And it it regular season only, no bowls. Another great point. We haven't been great against the spread game by game but we beat the season win total every year under Chizik. With the juice, it's just that much more of a great call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerProwl24 0 Posted April 24, 2012 Author Share Posted April 24, 2012 As for the other matchups... The total points for OU vs bama and USC vs LSU is for which team scores the most points over the course of the year. Surely this must be for the 12 regular season games only. Yes, it is only for the 12 regular season games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mustache eagle 2,420 Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Here are my locks for the year.. Auburn 7.5 over +140(5 toughest games, 3 are at home after cupcakes/bye, 1 on a neutral site and at UAT) Miss State 7.5 over -120(I shake my head at the schedule. Will start out 6-1, only loss being AU) Texas A&M 7.5 under -160(Absolutely brutal schedule and a welcoming party is awaiting them in the SEC West) Vandy 6.5 over +140(Vandy has a favorable schedule if they can gain some MOMO, which Rodgers will) WVU 8.5 over -140(Hardest game is Oklahoma at home and DH's offense should run rampant again in the Big 12) Oregon vs Alabama- Total points matchup- Oregon +150(Won't even be close) USC vs LSU- Total Points matchup- USC -155(SEC defense>Pac 12 defense) i'm gonna go way out on a limb and assume you have bet on a football game once ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerProwl24 0 Posted April 24, 2012 Author Share Posted April 24, 2012 I agree. The majority of sports bettors are trend players and trends have their place, but it is not as simple as made out here. It like flipping a coin within reason. You might flip it 100 times and get a 50/50 result, but it will not alternate meaning you might hit heads 4 of 5 times in a stretch and/or tails the same. I never base anything on blind trends, only use them as a tool. Some teams will decline after a good year and some will not. Research into the many factors regarding the 2012 team you might play has nothing to do with a trend that encompasses history of the sports, but instead the particular team you are researching and its many factors such as returning talent that stands to mature and a stable coaching staff among many other things. You can look at said team's recent history so long as the vital parts have been there for at least a few years and take that as one of many factors, but that is as far as I would take it. The way you stated your trend is much to liberal (not talking politics here) and all inclusive of outside factors regarding the sport itself, not your team, that simply do not matter here in my experience. Nothing personal, just the way it is... Droxside, I know you like to dab into these things, what do you think of my picks? The only two I'm not COMPLETELY sold on are Vandy and Moo State. These are my NFL picks: Panthers 8.5 over Bills 6.5 over Browns 6.5 under Saints 11.5 under Redskins 6.5 under Patriots 11.5 over I feel really strong about the Bills and Saints.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerProwl24 0 Posted April 24, 2012 Author Share Posted April 24, 2012 Here are my locks for the year.. Auburn 7.5 over +140(5 toughest games, 3 are at home after cupcakes/bye, 1 on a neutral site and at UAT) Miss State 7.5 over -120(I shake my head at the schedule. Will start out 6-1, only loss being AU) Texas A&M 7.5 under -160(Absolutely brutal schedule and a welcoming party is awaiting them in the SEC West) Vandy 6.5 over +140(Vandy has a favorable schedule if they can gain some MOMO, which Rodgers will) WVU 8.5 over -140(Hardest game is Oklahoma at home and DH's offense should run rampant again in the Big 12) Oregon vs Alabama- Total points matchup- Oregon +150(Won't even be close) USC vs LSU- Total Points matchup- USC -155(SEC defense>Pac 12 defense) i'm gonna go way out on a limb and assume you have bet on a football game once ... It is actually my second income. The reason I bring this up now is because this is the time of the year the veterans bet and when you have the potential to make easier money, which is hard to come by year around. For example, about the best you would do betting the lines of each individual game of the season, would be about 8-4, IF you're VERY GOOD at it. These lines are the initial lines and some will change before the season starts. In fact, Phil Steele's publication comes out around the end of June and he is the best in the business. I like to bet each year before that magazine comes out and fall practice starts because if you follow football as closely as I do, that is when you can get the best odds due to the flawed perceptions that aren't corrected yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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