The 10 wins/season Perspective

[AUloggerhead 2,241]

Double digit wins in a football season. Sounds impressive, doesn’t it? Supposedly, ... the hallmark of a great season. But is it really? Are all 10-win seasons on the same par with each other? From a purely statistical standpoint, no they are not. They can’t be when in the past, teams only used to play 10 regular games in a season plus a bowl game. The 11 game regular season started up in the early ‘70s. The introduction of conference championship games in 1992 (SEC) added another game to the schedule. Also, some teams were playing pre-season classics type games up until recently. In 2000, Kansas State played a 14 game season (11-3) by playing in the Eddie Robinson Classic, an 11-game season, Big XII conf championship, and the Cotton Bowl. The 12 game regular season is a recent development but comes on the heels of the NCAA decision to stop the pre-season classics games and prevent teams like Kansas State (again) in 2003 from playing a 15-game season (11-4.) Then, there is the special case of playing Hawaii in Hawaii not counting toward the regular season total.

So, in the interest of getting the most complete information out to you readers, I’ve compiled some statistics for you to digest. First up – winning percentage of 10 win seasons. Naturally, the closer the 10 wins is to the total number of games played in a season, the better the win %:

Total Games/Win % of 10 wins

10/100%

11/91%

12/83%

13/77%

14/73%

15/67%

10 wins in a 13-game season means a 77% winning percentage. That’s very nice but, what good is a 10-win season if you don’t win a championship in that season? The greatest coach ever to roam SEC sidelines – one that won so often, his fans became obnoxious about wining and would considered it a failure if they didn’t win the SEC crown outright every year – said as much during his last 10-win season. Of course, I’m talking about Steve Spurrier at UF in 2001. The Gators went 10-2 with an Orange Bowl crushing defeat of Maryland. “We didn’t win anything” he said, after the season. By this he meant he was truly disappointed in not competing for the NC and not even being eligible to compete for the conference title, despite having one of his best teams ever. He has a point. In his 12 years at UF, Spurrier’s teams compiled 9 years with 10 or more wins in a season and won 6 SEC titles & 1 NC. Two other times UF had a 10-2 record but “didn’t win anything” were in 1997 & 1998.

Another legendary SEC coach with a phenomenal winning percentage has had his share of 10-win seasons too – also, without the championships to show for it. Of course, I’m talking about Phil Fulmer. Since 1993, Fulmer has guided UT to 8 seasons of 10 or more wins but only 2 SEC championships & 1 NC during that time. One saving grace for Fulmer is that every 10 win season for UT has meant an appearance in the SECCG. At least the UT fans have had a shot at winning the championship every time they’ve recorded a 10-win season.

What does it all mean? Well, 10-win seasons are nice but they don’t register as anything but a gaudy stat unless you beat enough conference foes to get to the championship game. Then again, if you have a 10-win season but lose the conference championship game then crowing about a 10-win season is kind of, well ... hollow. Ask the UT fan base about that.

Give me a coach like Spurrier that tells it (a 10-win season) like it is: “We didn’t win anything.”

[SouthLink02 8]

Richt has won 10+ games since 2002 yet many don't consider that to be that great

To me, that says it all

[AUloggerhead 2,241]

Richt has won 10+ games since 2002 yet many don't consider that to be that great

To me, that says it all

229288[/snapback]

He's won 2 SEC championships in 3 appearances out of the 5 years he's been there, so that isn't too shabby. He does have one 10-2 season (2004) where he "didn't win anything." If Richt can sustain that record, he'll go down in UGA history as one of the greatest. One of the pitfalls of being so successful right from the start is the fan expectatiion to continue or do better(!) No doubt about it, Richt has to continue on the path he's taken.

[freebody 0]

One saving grace for Fulmer is that every 10 win season for UT has meant an appearance in the SECCG.  At least the UT fans have had a shot at winning the championship every time they’ve recorded a 10-win season.   

229282[/snapback]

I'm too lazy to look it up, but I am pretty sure UT had a few 10 win seasons prior to their first SECCG appearance in 97 - recall their annual New Year's date in Orlando that led to Spurrier saying "You can't spell Citrus without UT"

[ECEstudentUA 9]

One saving grace for Fulmer is that every 10 win season for UT has meant an appearance in the SECCG.  At least the UT fans have had a shot at winning the championship every time they’ve recorded a 10-win season.   

229282[/snapback]

I'm too lazy to look it up, but I am pretty sure UT had a few 10 win seasons prior to their first SECCG appearance in 97 - recall their annual New Year's date in Orlando that led to Spurrier saying "You can't spell Citrus without UT"

229295[/snapback]

I love Spurrier and all of his quotes.....he always has a good one.

[mcgufcm 4,107]

i, too, am too lazy to look this up, but off the top of my head i've got ut's only championship game appearances in: 1997, 1998, 1999, 2001, 2004. unless i'm sorely mistaken they either didn't have 8 ten win seasons or they didn't go to the title game every time they won ten. i'm guessing it's the latter.

[mcgufcm 4,107]

nevermind, i did look it up, and it's both. they won ten games 7 times (95, 96, 97, 98, 01, 03, 04) since 1993, and they only appeared in the sec title game 4 times in those years (97, 98, 01, 04). the other years they were beat out by florida each time except in 03 when uga went and lost to lsu.

i forgot about the bama/florida game in 99 earlier and gave ut credit for the appearance, but in my defense i've blocked out most of bama's highlights since i was born. i intentionally forgot everything that happened after august in 1992 including Christmas for fear of bringing back painful memories.

i guess my point is a 10-win year is a good accomplishment. it should be a goal each year b/c it means you've had a pretty good year, but even good years can feel kind of hollow if you don't get to play for a title (see: last year post-iron bowl).

ut is batting about .500 since the birth of the title game for 10+ win years giving them a shot at a title. auburn is 2 out of 3 (should be 3 for 3 but for probation). bama is the same percentage at 4 of 6 (0 for 2 in the 21st century). lsu is 3 of 4. uga is the same as ut at 3 of 6 (3 of 4 under richt as someone already pointed out). florida is actually only 5 of 8 (missing in 97, 98, and 01), and they haven't even had a 10 win year since spurrier. msu and ole miss have both missed the title game in their only 10 win year since the start of the game (99 for msu and 03 for ole miss).

i guess from the stats you should be pretty happy if you are sitting where auburn or bama (traditionally) or lsu or uga (of late) are b/c those teams generally play well enough to get both a shot at the title and a sparkling 10 win record. or maybe the point is that it's tougher to do both consistently or flukishly since the lower percentages go to the teams with the most or the fewest 10 win years. either way, i don't scoff at a 10 win record, but i'd much rather have a shot at a title if i'm forced to choose.

[quietfan 233]

Richt has won 10+ games since 2002 yet many don't consider that to be that great

To me, that says it all

229288[/snapback]

He's won 2 SEC championships in 3 appearances out of the 5 years he's been there, so that isn't too shabby. He does have one 10-2 season (2004) where he "didn't win anything." If Richt can sustain that record, he'll go down in UGA history as one of the greatest. One of the pitfalls of being so successful right from the start is the fan expectatiion to continue or do better(!) No doubt about it, Richt has to continue on the path he's taken.

229293[/snapback]

I agree...I think the main thing keeping Richt out of the ranks of Spurrier & "that legendary Coach from up the road" in West Vance is time and actual titles. Give him a few more years and throw in a few more titles with those winning seasons and he'll be considered another of the SEC's greatest. Of course, I also think if Tommy Tuberville can keep our program rolling in the direction it's traveling now, he also can start chalking up the "legendary" points in a few more years.

I'm glad Loggerhead pointed out the % issue over 10 wins in longer years. "10" is a seemingly significant number because it's double digits, but it loses some luster with expansion to a 12 game regular season. Consider that for a school which makes it to a conference championship & a bowl, 10-4 is winning less than 3/4 of your games (73%, as Loggerhead calculates)--not even as good as 9-3 now. [One more reason to oppose expansion to 12 regular season games)

Other seemingly significant accomplishments become watered down with expanion as well. 1000 rushing yards for a running back will still probably seem significant in our psyches, but how important is that landmark in a 12, 13, or 14 game season? I saw on another board the other day a Bama fan asking about the odds of a certain running back that wears dark pink winning the Heisman. (More delusion, IMO) But he mentioned that with the extra game, that running back had a chance to rack up even more yards and would have a better shot at the Heisman. Of course, his Bama logic seemed to ignore the fact that every other competing running back in the country would also get an extra game, so the extra game is no real advantage to his favorite in the Heisman race.

[BamaGrad03 0]

But adding the conference championship game as an opportunity for 10 wins ONLY applies to teams who had a good season anyway by winning their division...

[mcgufcm 4,107]

how many teams have actually won the title game as their tenth though? my guess is not many.

only ones i can think of right off the bat are bama in 1999, florida in 1994 (the year they tied fsu and lost to them later. those two games and the auburn game were the only non-wins that year making them 10-2-1 unless my math is wrong), florida in 2000 (against auburn), and uga this year.

those are the only sec title winners to finish the year with 10 wins. seems like most of the time you either weren't spectacular enough to make it despite 9 or 10 regular season wins or you were really good and won more than 10.

[mcgufcm 4,107]

just went and checked it out, and found something more interesting than the "10th win in the title game" thing. okay i missed two. florida also did it in 1993 and ut did it in 1997. okay the more interesting thing is this of the 6 teams that have won the sec title game as their tenth game, only one (florida in 1993) has actually gone on to win their bowl game to get more than 10 wins.

going in reverse order, uga lost to wvu this year, florida lost to miami in 2000, bama lost to michigan in 1999, ut lost to nebraska in 1997, and florida lost that aforementioned fsu game in 1994.

so you want a pretty good bet? see if an unspectacular sec team squeezes out a championship and a tenth win... then take whomever they get matched up with in the bowls. maybe it's because of the bcs matchups now, but average champs have had almost no luck in the bowls.