StatTiger 3,188 Posted September 6, 2006 Share Posted September 6, 2006 First of all, I have no doubt Auburn will win this weekend but the scoring margin will be affected by the new changes made in terms of the game clock. There are several factors to take in consideration when picking the score for this game. We all know Auburn is the better team in terms of talent, depth and coaching. Picking the winner is a no-brainer but the margin of victory is a different matter. Consider the following... *Because both teams are run-first oriented on offense, the game clock will run faster. For this reason, the game will be shortened and Auburn will have a fewer number of "at bats" on offense. *Under Borges, Auburn has averaged almost 13 offensive possessions per game against weaker opponents. We have scored on 49% of those possessions, with a TD pct of 43%. *Because of the rule changes on when the clock runs, we will probably average closer to 11 possessions per game. *If we are able to run the ball, that possession total just might drop down to 9-10 possessions against Mississippi State. You also have to consider that MSU will want to run the ball as well to keep our offense off the field. Even if they have no success in terms of yards gained, they still take valuable time off the clock. Should we have only 10 "at bats" against State, we probably have 5 scoring drives of which 4 would be TD's at best. This is based on our scoring pct from the past two seasons under Borges. At max, we are looking at 35 points but likely 31 points. *This doesn't include scores made on defense (turnovers) or special teams or a short field set up by the defense or special teams. This could skew the numbers and increase the probability of scoring. *Ellis Johnson (MSU DC) will make our offense work for everything we get. Big plays can increase the probability of scoring but we have not been able to generate a high number of big plays against MSU in the past two games. We had three in 2004 and three again in 2005. *Again, the number of "at bats" will determine our scoring production against MSU. Even if we get 13 possessions, Auburn is looking at 5-6 TD's max or 6 scoring drives. Unless MSU is completely flat, the odds of Auburn scoring 40-50 pts probably won't happen. 31-35 points is much more realistic given the changes in the way the game clock is kept now and how both offense will approach the game. In 2004, Auburn had 6 scoring drives from 13 possessions against MSU. In 2005, it dropped to 3 out of 11. Taking the average of the two games, Auburn has scored on 37.5% of their offensive possessions. IMO, the 2006 offense is not as good as the 04 offense and probably better than the 05 offense so the 37.5% scoring average is probably right for 2006. 2 cents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarTiger 3,913 Posted September 6, 2006 Share Posted September 6, 2006 good stuff stat as usual. Another thing not factored in is Kenny irons breaking a long one for a TD...on the first play of the drive, like he did saturday night. That makes for a quick possession...and a score... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AuNuma1 1 Posted September 6, 2006 Share Posted September 6, 2006 31, 35, I'll take it. MSU got shut out by South Carolina. Nuff said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatTiger 3,188 Posted September 6, 2006 Author Share Posted September 6, 2006 31, 35, I'll take it. MSU got shut out by South Carolina. Nuff said. I would too. I'm looking at around 30 pts under the assumption we have six scoring drives during the game. That would mean 18-42 pts depending on our execution near or inside the red zone. Even if we spilt our 6 scoring drives (3 TD, 3 FG), that's 30 points. Obviously, just winning the dog gone game is the priority but that's almost a given considering the current status of both teams. I hope we improve our 3rd down pct and red zone opportunities this weekend. I'm hoping Borges will mix up his run to pass ratio on first down this week. If we pass when we want to, we probably win big but if we pass when we have to, the game will be much closer than most will like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AuNuma1 1 Posted September 6, 2006 Share Posted September 6, 2006 Yeah, just win. But this could be a great adjustment game for us as lswho is just right around the corner. Offensively, I'd like to see the redzone scoring improve. We shouldn't be kicking more than 3 or 4 fields goals a game, especially with the new rule changes and us not getting as many offensive series to work with. Defensively, I want to see our safeties pick it up and bust some heads. We do those things and I think we're ready for the cajuns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keoson7 28 Posted September 6, 2006 Share Posted September 6, 2006 38-10 dogs score late TD on 3rd teamers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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