Throw Out The Numbers?

[AUChizad 0]

Better team usually wins

Thursday, November 16, 2006

KEVIN SCARBINSKY and JON SOLOMON

News staff writers

TUSCALOOSA --

Alabama can forget Arkansas, Florida, Tennessee, Mississippi State and LSU. Auburn can put Arkansas and Georgia out of its mind.

This week, nothing else matters. Right?

As Alabama linebacker Terrence Jones said, "You can pretty much throw the record out the window."

In the words of Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville, "It's an old cliche, but you can throw all of that out."

It is a cliche when it comes to rivalry games like the Iron Bowl, but is it true? No, according to some Birmingham News research. In the biggest football game of the year in this state, as in most other games, the better team usually wins.

Consider the numbers:

The team that enters the Iron Bowl with the better record has won 75 percent of the time. That's the record for the all-time series. Since 1981, the team with the better record has won 65 percent of the time.

Auburn (9-2) has three more wins than Alabama (6-5) this season. There have been 30 other times that the teams entered the Iron Bowl separated by three or more wins. In those cases, the team with the better record won 27 of the 30 games.

Based on the betting lines according to Phil Steele, the favorite has won 22 of the last 30 Iron Bowls. Not covered the line, necessarily, but won the game

Alabama defensive coordinator Joe Kines understands. Cliches and emotions don't win football games.

"Going into a game like this, it's easy to get caught up in all the hype," Kines said. "Everybody is all buzzing around. When it comes down to it, it's all about fundamentals. The bigger the game, the more the guy gets off blocks, tackles, covers and runs to the ball is the guy who is going to win."

It's not just the Iron Bowl. A check of nine other traditional late-season rivalries shows that you can't throw the records out elsewhere, though some rivalries are more favorite-friendly than others.

Here are the results for the teams with the better records in these rivalries since 1981:

Texas-Texas A&M: 21-3 (.875)

Clemson-South Carolina: 17-4-1 (.795)

Georgia-Georgia Tech: 17-5 (.773)

Oregon-Oregon State: 13-5-1 (.711)

Army-Navy: 14-6-1 (.690)

Harvard-Yale: 13-6-1 (.675)

Alabama-Auburn: 15-8 (.652)

Florida-Florida State: 14-8 (.636)

USC-UCLA: 13-10-1 (.563)

Michigan-Ohio State: 12-10-1 (.543)

There are, of course, exceptions.

In 2002, the year that started Auburn's current four-game win streak in the Iron Bowl, the Tigers were a 10-point underdog but won 17-7. Based on the betting line, that was the biggest upset in the series in the last 30 years.

Last year was unusual because Alabama entered with the better record, 9-1 to 8-2, but Auburn was a 7-point favorite. Alabama, the team with the better record, lost. Auburn, the betting favorite, won.

Maybe the cliche about throwing out the records was born because players, coaches and fans tend to remember the upsets in a rivalry, as rare as they may be.

Tommy Tuberville remembers the 2001 Iron Bowl. His Auburn team was 7-2. A win would've given Auburn its second straight outright SEC West title and SEC Championship Game appearance.

Dennis Franchione's first Alabama team was 4-5. But the Crimson Tide smashed the Tigers 31-7 in Jordan-Hare Stadium.

Mike Shula remembers the 1984 Iron Bowl. He was the quarterback of a 4-6 Alabama team. Auburn was 8-3 and one win away from a second straight SEC title and Sugar Bowl trip.

But Bo Jackson went the wrong way as a blocking back on fourth-and-goal, Rory Turner "waxed the dude" who got the ball, Brent Fullwood, and Alabama won 17-15.

The only other time a team with three or more wins than its rival has lost the Iron Bowl: 1949. A 1-4-3 Auburn team beat a 6-2-1 Alabama team 14-13.

[DCWarEagle 0]

Interesting. I have wondered before whethet the "throw the record books out the window" cliche was true. Looks like it is true on occasion, but usually the favorite wins.

I hope that the favorite gets the win this weekend. War Eagle!!

[DKW 86 7,441]

That cliche really does not apply to the Iron Bowl much.

Upsets do happen, but not that much.

[JohnDeere 0]

Alabama-Auburn: 15-8 (.652)

Let me see...the Iron bowl has only been played 23 times since 81 and UAT has a winning record?

Another reason not to read anyting in the B'ham rag.

I believe the CORRECT record is: AU 15 UA 11

[AWK 0]

Alabama-Auburn: 15-8 (.652)

Let me see...the Iron bowl has only been played 23 times since 81 and UAT has a winning record?

Another reason not to read anyting in the B'ham rag.

I believe the CORRECT record is: AU 15 UA 11

He is saying 15 games were not upsets, while 8 games were.