Surprise, surprise!

[Tigermike 3,041]

It sounds real comfortable until you realize that 13 of McCain's 245 come from Virginia, which has been trending blue with Jim Webb and Tim Kaine. Virginia is almost certain to keep trending blue with Mark Warner this fall, and was the site of one of Obama’s most impressive wins, a 64-35 demolition of Hillary in February.

Put Obamaboy on suicide watch.

Atlantic’s electoral map: McCain 245, Obama 221, toss-up 72

The General Election Map

12 May 2008 08:33 am

Here's the first Atlantic Election Map of the cycle based on interviews, reportage, polling and guesswork. In this map, I've pushed as many as tossups as I can possibly justify: Virginia, and Nevada to McCain, and Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire to Obama; these five states, with their 56 electoral votes, are tossups masquerading as leaners, so for all intents and purposes, our map has eleven states and 128 electoral votes up for grabs. As polling and information warrant, watch for these states to move out of the lean column and into the tossup column.

McCain's base states + his leaners: 245 electoral votes.

Obama's base states + his leaners: 221 electoral votes.

McCain's base states -- 175 electoral votes.

Texas (34), West Virginia (5), Georgia (15), South Carolina (8), Kentucky (8), Tennessee (11), Alabama (9), Mississippi (6), Louisiana (9), Arkansas (6), Wyoming (3), Idaho (4), Utah (5), Arizona (10), Alaska (3), Oklahoma (7), Kansas (6), Nebraska (5), South Dakota (3), North Dakota (3), North Carolina (15)

Tilt McCain states -- 70 electoral votes.

Indiana (11) -- competitive House and GOV races; Obama's college force multiplier; state borders IL

Virginia (13) -- polling shows McCain with lead; McCain will over performing in Tidewater; Obama will overperform in NoVA. Probably will be tossup by the summer as Mark Warner's popularity will stoke Dem enthusiasm.

Missouri (11) -- lack of McCain enthusiasm in rural (Huckabee) areas; state borders IL; Obama overperformed among suburban whites and inner city African Americans in primary.

Montana (3) -- Schweitzer's army and state legislature trending Democratic; probably safe McCain by November.

Florida (27) -- McCain's very popular in South Florida and North Florida; whether Florida is competitive depends a lot on his appeal to Latinos and his overperforming with Jewish voters

Nevada (5) -- Unusual for Latino voters to be up for grabs, although state has more Dem energy than GOP energy (and plenty of infighting on both sides.)

Tossups: Pennsylvania (21), Wisconsin (10), Iowa (7), Ohio (20), New Mexico (5), Colorado (9) -- 72 electoral votes.

Obama's base states -- 172 electoral votes --

Washington, D.C. (3), Maryland (10), California (55), New York (31), Vermont (3), Massachusetts (12), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Rhode Island (4), Illinois (21), Hawaii (4), New Jersey (15), Maine (4)

Tilt Obama States -- 49 electoral votes

New Hampshire (4) -- everything trending Dem, including independents. If McCain's maverick image endures, NH becomes an easy tossup.

Michigan (17) -- An economically depressed Dem union state with an active GOP base and that primary problem;

Minnesota (10) -- If Pawlenty is McCain's veep the state is marginally more in play; the GOP gets the force multiplier of the convention. Else, the state would be safe Obama.

Washington (11) -- McCain campaign wants to contend here

Oregon (7) -- McCain campaign wants to contend here

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archiv...lection_map.php

[Ranger12 46]

I think this is very likely to happen. I even have a liberal professor that agrees with me that the democrats have shot themselves in the foot with two candidates they are offering for the independent voters. McCain is not actually my first or second choice as the conservative candidate, but he has a lot more experience behind him. Independents are going to eventually bring their vote down to experience and the dems have messed up by not pushing one of their more experienced leaders. What happened to guys like Gephardt, Conyers, Murtha, Rangel, Byrd, Reid, Durbin, Feingold, etc?

[autigeremt 6,656]

I can see this senario. Of course the Ohama Bama supporters will spin it as McCain false positives.

I still look at this very weak and slow moving Congress as a problem. If they have wasted 2 years just to take the White House before acting, then I say we vote them all out and start over.

[Ranger12 46]

I can see this senario. Of course the Ohama Bama supporters will spin it as McCain false positives.

I still look at this very weak and slow moving Congress as a problem. If they have wasted 2 years just to take the White House before acting, then I say we vote them all out and start over.

I say we go back to how the Founding Fathers meant for our legislators to live....part time representatives with full time jobs outside of the political arena. NO CAREER POLITICIANS!

This is why I am breaking from state republicans on the law being debated on whether legislators can hold state jobs, such as post-secondary education positions, and also be a state legislator. While I understand there could be conflicts of interest at times, overall a legislator should be holding a full time job, regardless if it is a state job or not. They have a right to a job period. How are you going to tell an educator with a Masters of Phd that they can't teach at the college level because they are a legislator? Wouldn't that be forcing them to not utilize their degree? What if somebody works for the DOT as a road worker? That is a state job, so does that mean they can't be a legislator also?

They call it double dipping, but what it is that a few powerful legislators have abused the system by taking state jobs in which they did hardly anything. I think those were obvious cases and we don't need a law that punishes other hard working state employees (some may call that an oxymoron ) who also want to serve as a representative.

[RunInRed 16,438]

I think Obama can put these states in play: Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, South Carolina, and Missouri. Also, Wisconsin will not be a toss up state.

Who is this source? Does they have a credible track record?

[otterinbham 0]

I think Obama can put these states in play: Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, South Carolina, and Missouri. Also, Wisconsin will not be a toss up state.

Who is this source? Does they have a credible track record?

It's the Atlantic Magazine. Not exactly an organ of conservatism. It's pretty liberal in fact. I know that anybody who doesn't forecast an Obama coronation at this point is politically incorrect in your eyes, but there you have it.

[Justin5 20]

About what I have expected. This is why Obama wasn't my first choice as our nominee.

Clinton is right in that she is the more electable one of the two of them. Edwards would have been even better.

Oh well, this is our hand and we must play it.

[Tiger Al 0]

About what I have expected. This is why Obama wasn't my first choice as our nominee.

Clinton is right in that she is the more electable one of the two of them. Edwards would have been even better.

Oh well, this is our hand and we must play it.

Damn. We almost had it all, didn't we? Now Obama's lost WV, too.

[RunInRed 16,438]

I think Obama can put these states in play: Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, South Carolina, and Missouri. Also, Wisconsin will not be a toss up state.

Who is this source? Does they have a credible track record?

It's the Atlantic Magazine. Not exactly an organ of conservatism. It's pretty liberal in fact. I know that anybody who doesn't forecast an Obama coronation at this point is politically incorrect in your eyes, but there you have it.

They can say whatever they want, I just don't agree with all of their projections. Saying the states I listed above are a lock for McCain is more than a stretch.

[autigeremt 6,656]

Obama will not win my home state of South Carolina, nor will he win Georgia. N.C. is a maybe, and Virginia is a stretch, but not out of the question. Missouri I say no, but Wiss. a strong maybe.

Of course Atlanta could steal it (Georgia) for Obama, but I really don't see that happening. Could be wrong. Been wrong before.

[RunInRed 16,438]

McCain vs Obama: By the Numbers

The Democratic presidential nomination fight continues on without end, but attention is beginning to shift to the prospects of a general election battle between Sens. Barack Obama (Ill.) and John McCain (Ariz.).

A new poll conducted by the Washington Post and ABC provides us with a benchmark of where the likely Obama-McCain general election matchup stands -- and gives us scads of data to sort through in an attempt to understand the strengths and weaknesses of these two candidates.

In the head-to-head matchup, Obama leads McCain, 51 percent to 44 percent, a margin roughly similar to the 49 percent to 44 percent edge he held in the Post/ABC survey in April. Obama held a wider 52 percent to 40 percent lead in a March Post/ABC poll.

The Fix, as always, seeks to go beyond the basics and bring Fixistas the essential information you can't get anywhere else. Thanks to Washington Post polling director -- and all around good guy -- Jon Cohen, we have a wellspring of numbers to slice and dice as we see fit.

At first glance, it's clear that while this election may be historic on some levels, some of the traditional divides between the parties remain.

Take the gender gap. Obama and McCain are statistically tied among men (Obama 48 percent, McCain 47 percent), but the Illinois senator has a 14-point edge among women. That margin is due in large part to Obama's strength among black women, who favor him over McCain by a whopping 90 points. (That is not a typo.) McCain actually leads among white women, 50 percent to 43 percent, a reflection, perhaps of some lingering ill will among supporters of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.).

Similarly, Obama expectedly does better among lower income voters while the two candidates run even among the more affluent. Obama holds a wide 16-point lead among those with a household income of $50,000 or less while McCain is ahead of Obama, 49 percent to 48 percent, among those making $50,000 or more.

But, there is also data in the guts of the poll that suggests another Democratic year is brewing, with Obama positioned to take full advantage.

A look at the presidential vote by region suggests a shift in political inclination is at work. Not surprisingly, Obama holds his largest lead over McCain (18 points) in the Northeast -- an area that has become increasingly dominated by Democrats in recent elections.

But, Obama also holds a lead in the traditional battleground area of the Midwest -- where Obama takes 54 percent to McCain's 41 percent -- and in the Republican-leaning territory of the West where Obama holds a double-digit lead at the moment. And, even in the South, where Republicans have dominated at the federal level for much of the past four decades, Obama is competitive; McCain takes 49 percent to 45 percent for the Illinois senator.

While McCain trails by double digits in three of the four regions of the country, he actually far over performs his own party's showing in the Post poll.

Asked which party they trusted to "do a better job of coping with the main problems the nation faces over the next few years," voters across the country opted for Democrats by wide margins.

In the Northeast, Democrats outpaced Republicans by 29 points while the margin was 26 points in the Midwest. The news wasn't much better for Republicans in the West (Democrats +18) or the South (Democrats +15).

Those two sets of numbers provide clear evidence of two things: the Republican brand is badly damaged and McCain may be the GOP's best (and only) chance to redefine it and win in November.

McCain runs far stronger than the generic Republican in not only the various geographic regions of the country but across nearly every demographic group. That includes white Catholics (McCain trails Obama by just two while Republicans lag behind Democrats by 16 points), non-college voters (McCain down six, Republicans down 21) and voters 55 or older (McCain up one point, Republicans down 19).

While those problems bode poorly for downballot candidates -- and could well explain the party's losses in House special election in Illinois and Louisiana and its potential defeat tonight in Mississippi's 1st district -- it provides some hope that McCain is seen as a different kind of Republican by many voters and could, in theory, reinvent the GOP brand between now and November.

While that possibility exists for McCain, other data in the poll suggests there are considerable hurdles to remaking the party brand.

Most importantly, self-identified independent and moderate voters continue to act like Democrats -- a trend that led to that party retaking majorities in Congress in 2006.

Obama holds a nine-point lead among independent voters -- 51 percent to 42 percent -- and a wider 19-point bulge among moderates.

Both candidates demonstrate some cross-party appeal. Obama wins 15 percent of self identified Republicans (Sen. John Kerry took just six percent of those voters in 2004) while McCain wins 13 percent of self-identified Democrats. Those numbers could well change, however, as the election engages and partisan tendencies harden.

All in all, the Obama forces have to be pleased with the poll results as they show the Illinois senator is not only running strong among traditional Democratic groups but also doing better among typical swing groups than McCain.

Still, when matched against the generic numbers, there is reason for concern among Democrats as McCain is clearly over-performing his party in any number of key demographic groups -- a showing that suggests he has the potential to make the November election far closer than the political climate suggests it should be.

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008...he_numbers.html

[otterinbham 0]

Good Lord, Ruin...you sure have selective reading skills. I point out the last paragraph....

McCain vs Obama: By the Numbers

The Democratic presidential nomination fight continues on without end, but attention is beginning to shift to the prospects of a general election battle between Sens. Barack Obama (Ill.) and John McCain (Ariz.).

A new poll conducted by the Washington Post and ABC provides us with a benchmark of where the likely Obama-McCain general election matchup stands -- and gives us scads of data to sort through in an attempt to understand the strengths and weaknesses of these two candidates.

In the head-to-head matchup, Obama leads McCain, 51 percent to 44 percent, a margin roughly similar to the 49 percent to 44 percent edge he held in the Post/ABC survey in April. Obama held a wider 52 percent to 40 percent lead in a March Post/ABC poll.

The Fix, as always, seeks to go beyond the basics and bring Fixistas the essential information you can't get anywhere else. Thanks to Washington Post polling director -- and all around good guy -- Jon Cohen, we have a wellspring of numbers to slice and dice as we see fit.

At first glance, it's clear that while this election may be historic on some levels, some of the traditional divides between the parties remain.

Take the gender gap. Obama and McCain are statistically tied among men (Obama 48 percent, McCain 47 percent), but the Illinois senator has a 14-point edge among women. That margin is due in large part to Obama's strength among black women, who favor him over McCain by a whopping 90 points. (That is not a typo.) McCain actually leads among white women, 50 percent to 43 percent, a reflection, perhaps of some lingering ill will among supporters of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.).

Similarly, Obama expectedly does better among lower income voters while the two candidates run even among the more affluent. Obama holds a wide 16-point lead among those with a household income of $50,000 or less while McCain is ahead of Obama, 49 percent to 48 percent, among those making $50,000 or more.

But, there is also data in the guts of the poll that suggests another Democratic year is brewing, with Obama positioned to take full advantage.

A look at the presidential vote by region suggests a shift in political inclination is at work. Not surprisingly, Obama holds his largest lead over McCain (18 points) in the Northeast -- an area that has become increasingly dominated by Democrats in recent elections.

But, Obama also holds a lead in the traditional battleground area of the Midwest -- where Obama takes 54 percent to McCain's 41 percent -- and in the Republican-leaning territory of the West where Obama holds a double-digit lead at the moment. And, even in the South, where Republicans have dominated at the federal level for much of the past four decades, Obama is competitive; McCain takes 49 percent to 45 percent for the Illinois senator.

While McCain trails by double digits in three of the four regions of the country, he actually far over performs his own party's showing in the Post poll.

Asked which party they trusted to "do a better job of coping with the main problems the nation faces over the next few years," voters across the country opted for Democrats by wide margins.

In the Northeast, Democrats outpaced Republicans by 29 points while the margin was 26 points in the Midwest. The news wasn't much better for Republicans in the West (Democrats +18) or the South (Democrats +15).

Those two sets of numbers provide clear evidence of two things: the Republican brand is badly damaged and McCain may be the GOP's best (and only) chance to redefine it and win in November.

McCain runs far stronger than the generic Republican in not only the various geographic regions of the country but across nearly every demographic group. That includes white Catholics (McCain trails Obama by just two while Republicans lag behind Democrats by 16 points), non-college voters (McCain down six, Republicans down 21) and voters 55 or older (McCain up one point, Republicans down 19).

While those problems bode poorly for downballot candidates -- and could well explain the party's losses in House special election in Illinois and Louisiana and its potential defeat tonight in Mississippi's 1st district -- it provides some hope that McCain is seen as a different kind of Republican by many voters and could, in theory, reinvent the GOP brand between now and November.

While that possibility exists for McCain, other data in the poll suggests there are considerable hurdles to remaking the party brand.

Most importantly, self-identified independent and moderate voters continue to act like Democrats -- a trend that led to that party retaking majorities in Congress in 2006.

Obama holds a nine-point lead among independent voters -- 51 percent to 42 percent -- and a wider 19-point bulge among moderates.

Both candidates demonstrate some cross-party appeal. Obama wins 15 percent of self identified Republicans (Sen. John Kerry took just six percent of those voters in 2004) while McCain wins 13 percent of self-identified Democrats. Those numbers could well change, however, as the election engages and partisan tendencies harden.

All in all, the Obama forces have to be pleased with the poll results as they show the Illinois senator is not only running strong among traditional Democratic groups but also doing better among typical swing groups than McCain.

Still, when matched against the generic numbers, there is reason for concern among Democrats as McCain is clearly over-performing his party in any number of key demographic groups -- a showing that suggests he has the potential to make the November election far closer than the political climate suggests it should be.

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008...he_numbers.html

[RunInRed 16,438]

Good Lord, Ruin...you sure have selective reading skills. I point out the last paragraph....

I read the last paragraph when I originally posted it and included it in the post....but thanks for rehilighting JM's silver lining.

[otterinbham 0]

Good Lord, Ruin...you sure have selective reading skills. I point out the last paragraph....

I read the last paragraph when I originally posted it and included it in the post....but thanks for rehilighting JM's silver lining.

I guarantee it. Once people get past voting for Obama to ensure Hillary's Gotterdamerung, they will look at him, see his platform as a rehash of Lyndon Johnson and break right come October. A surging economy in 3Q and collapse in commodities prices will do the trick.

[RunInRed 16,438]

Good Lord, Ruin...you sure have selective reading skills. I point out the last paragraph....

I read the last paragraph when I originally posted it and included it in the post....but thanks for rehilighting JM's silver lining.

I guarantee it. Once people get past voting for Obama to ensure Hillary's Gotterdamerung, they will look at him, see his platform as a rehash of Lyndon Johnson and break right come October. A surging economy in 3Q and collapse in commodities prices will do the trick.

You are predicting a collaspe of commodities prices? Give me some targets for Gas, Milk, etc. Also, will the dollar rebound?

[RunInRed 16,438]

While exit polls from the West Virginia primary seemed to suggest the party is deeply divided between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, a new poll out Wednesday suggests either candidate would easily beat Republican John McCain in the fall.

According to a new Quinnipiac University poll, both Democratic candidates beat McCain by a gap well outside the margin of error. Obama beats McCain by 7 points in the poll, 47 percent to 40 percent, while Hillary Clinton bests the Arizona senator by 5 points, 46 percent to 41 percent.

The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 points and was conducted from May 8-12.

Clinton and Obama's relatively strong standing against McCain in the poll appear to dispel notions that Democratic party may be unable to come together around one candidate in the fall, even as West Virginia exit polls reported majorities of both candidates' supporters would not support the other candidate in the general election.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/