Looking Ahead to the NCAA Objectively

[AURex 1,994]

I said it before the SEC tourney started and no one wanted to hear it. So I hate to say "I told ya so," but ya know, I told ya so.

As for the NCAA tourney -- well, our early opponent(s) will not have on-court experience playing Auburn. They will not have the talent either. However, they WILL have motivation and they WILL have tape and they WILL know how to frustrate Auburn technically.

In the NCAA tournament, Auburn will have a 2 seed -- maybe a 3 based on the recent list of doodoo-crap losses. But the first up in the NCAA may not have the personnel to deal with Jabari and Kessler. (Of course, neither did A&M.)

But I don't expect Auburn to get far in the NCAA tourney for the same reason Auburn could not beat Arkansas, Tennessee, Florida and now A&M.

The reality is, Auburn has some really great individual players -- Jabari, Kessler, Green, Johnson -- but Auburn does not play a cohesive style of ball, instead relying on a free-for-all game. It works when it works, but it doesn't against disciplined teams with some strength inside and some speed on offense and tenacity defense. Pack the paint and force Auburn to shoot 3s, force Auburn turnovers, rebound on the offensive glass  -- bingo.

I am very sorry about this. I LOVE my Tigers. I WANT them to go deep in the NCAA. But, despite having 2 sure bet NBA picks and some really good (if sporadic) supporting cast, Auburn just doesn't have the *TEAM* cohesiveness to go far this season in the NCAA.

I sincerely hope I am wrong and that the team gets their sheeeeet together for the dance.

[WinstonMcFlurry 28]

I think the struggles are much simpler than people realize. About 2/3 of the way through the season, teams realized that by trapping every Auburn ball screen they could almost entirely eliminate the Kessler/Cardwell pick-and-role. At its peak, this was accounting for something like 30 points a game and now that its production has vanished Auburn is seriously struggling to find points elsewhere. 

Of course, if you trap everything and extend your defense up, there will be open lanes for cutters everywhere, provided that your guards can find these cutters. I suspect (although I don't know, I'm no analyst) that Wendell is simply too short to take advantage of this. Additionally, when a defender rotates down to contest an inside shot, there will always be someone WIDE open on the perimeter, we just, as anyone with eyes will tell you, can't make those shots. And we never will. 

I took a quick glance back at the box scores during the big winning streak, and against everyone except pretty much Kentucky they shot under or near 30% from three. If they shot a consistent 35% (Which is pretty much the mean for a college basketball team) this team would be essentially unbeatable. As it is, we have to play absolutely horrendous basketball to even lose close. If they clean up some of the truly dumb offensive plays (I can't count how many times KD has ignored a wide open player under the basket in order to drive directly into two guys and miss) this team will roll into the sweet 16, after that its a crapshoot. 

In all, this team reminds me of the Duke teams of the last 7 or 8 years: overwhelmingly talented, but inexperienced and fatally flawed. I think we suffer the same fate as them - 2nd or 3rd round upset. 

[NoALtiger 3,851]

Lack of guard play, pretty simple. 

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,662]

A&M did have the means to frustrate Auburn. Coleman had like 8 rebs in half of the first half the first game, gave Castleton troubles and is stronger and just as quick as Kessler.