JwgreDeux

Starting line up: Harper, Brown, Heron, Murray, Spencer. Going small.

Pregame interview by CBP was pretty clear he isn't sure what the rotation is going to look like. Probably going to move Murray around spots a bit, we will see how that goes. Planning on a 9 man rotation.

I think you’re right about Wade, of a couple sites that I use for reference one still had them on their roster. Looks like they are returning three of their starters and most of their reserves will be juniors and seniors. Expect them to come out very aggressive defensively.

It isn't the Christmas Morning feeling I was hoping for, but its here. Tipoff tonight vs Norfolk State is set for 7pm central in Auburn Arena. If a coach, a team, a program ever needed a loud supportive home crowd its this coach, this team, this program. This game is only about Auburn. How will this team respond to all the uncertainty surrounding it? Norfolk is not a good scoring team, averaging under 70 pts a game, ranking 250+ in the nation last year. Their best player is #3 Wade. He is a 6-4 guard who leads them in scoring and rebounding. Their starters last season were not very big, but they bring a 7 footer and 6-11 off the bench who are more big bodies than anything else. Long story short, this is the perfect team for us to come out, limit their scoring, and run away with a feel good win. They are good enough to frustrate that purpose if we slop around though. Norfolk was picked to finish second in their league, partly because of all the experience they return. However, there is absolutely no reason for us to not win this game. This game may reveal some info on who the team leaders are, something that never materialized last year. I would expect them to be very athletic, to mix up their defenses, and to try and get out and run some, maybe even press us early on. They are going to come in trying to get a big win, we must show the resolve and grit to dig in and defend. As much as I am hoping for our guys to come out and play lock down defense, I expect us to get the win, but in less than convincing fashion. War Eagle!

Auburn (17-12, 6-10) vs. Georgia (17-12, 8-8) Wednesday, March 1st 5:30PM CT SEC Network / WatchESPN Stegeman Coliseum, Athens, Georgia This one isn't much different than the last one, except that instead of fighting for NCAA tourney position, we are fighting for NIT tourney position. Here is my preview from the first match-up: Both teams are down a man, AU is without Spencer, and UGA is without Maten. He was 1 of their 1-2 punch with the point guard, but somehow they have managed to play pretty well without him. Our build a lead and lose it history, actually started in the first UGA and has plagued us since. This isn't a must win, but let's face it, a win vs Mizzou doesn't help any resumes. So this is a chance to more than likely lock in a spot in the NIT. UGA is a solid home favorite in this one at -5, so it will take a good effort on our part. The bulldogs have a lot to play for, they aren't just going to roll over because they lost Maten. They have been playing a bit more up-temp without Maten, which should work in our favor. At this point, we know what we have in most of our guys, how close can they play to their abilities on both ends? We can not afford a lack luster half in this one and expect to win. We have to contain Frazier, end of story. He is their primary weapon at this point and is who they will go to when they need a basket. That falls to Harper, Johnson and maybe Brown. That is the game within a game to watch, slow down Frazier we should have a great chance to win this one; let him run wild and its over. War Eagle!

Forgot to mention we are a 6 point dog in this one.

Auburn (16-10, 5-8) vs. Texas A&M (13-12, 5-8) Saturday, February 18th 3:00PM CT ESPNU / WatchESPN College Station, TX Well somebody's gotta win this one. Both teams are coming off two losses in a row and are looking to prevent a late season slide. There isn't much to say about our Tigers that hasn't been said to this point in the season. Prior to the Ole Miss game this team was on the verge of serious tourney consideration, so I'm not convinced they are ready to fold up shop. It's important to take a moment and realize that this team has already taken a step forward from last season and created expectations of post season play. That's progress. Nonetheless, of this team isn't able to salvage a postseason appearance, it will be a let down considering where we were two games ago. A&M presents a lot of problems. Davis is a bull in the post and I'm not sure we have anyone who can play that physically without fouling, in order to limit him. Their guard Gilder does it all, scores, facilitates and defends. At 6-4 he may be too big for Brown to guard and could require Heron to guard their best scoring guard. A&M doesn't score as much as we do, but they can score the ball and will present a challenge for our second half matador defense. A couple of other notes. Anyone who is on the coaching staff needs to get some perspective. CBP and CCP know more about high level basketball than any of us ever will. They are both proven. I and others have talked about chemistry and communication issues that all the roster shifting would cause. Low and behold we lose Spencer and our defense dramatically suffers, just when the team seemed to be finding its self. I love the passion that I have seen from the fans wanting to win, but to start calling for heads to roll is misplaced. I saw a tweet from Rod Brambett the other day that said in his 13 years of calling AU basketball this was already the third most wins he has seen. This program was a dumpster fire when CBP took over. A&M is a top 100 RPI team, with our RPI at 72, a win will put us in good position for the lesser postseason tourneys. We improved our turnovers and rebounding vs UF, but the defense was lacking. With our offense the fldefense doesn't have to be great, but the intensity has to come up. I still think this group has some wins left in them, let's get one this afternoon. War Eagle!

Auburn (16-9, 5-7) vs. Florida (20-5, 10-2) Tuesday, February 14th, 2017 6:00PM CT SEC Network / WatchESPN A program that seemed poised to take a big step forward into the NCAA tourney discussion, let a key opportunity slip away over the weekend. Since the Tigers blew a 20+ point lead to lose to Ole Miss on the road, there has been questions about Bruce Pearl, softness of the team and whether we were ever a bubble team to start with. However, at 16-9 (5-7) and with 6 games to go, Auburn certainly has much left to play for. Auburn is currently tied for 8th in the league and 4th is only two games out in front of them. We have seen some over reaction in the past when we let one get away. For me, this loss hurt more than others due to the timing, as we have very little time to make up for this one. Of our remaining games, only 2 opponents are ranked higher than us in the league and we get them both at home (Arkansas and Florida). There are some very winnable games in this stretch and it is crucial to our program to pick up a few and earn some postseason play. The best thing for any postseason resume is beating good teams. We have such an opportunity tonight, as we welcome Florida to the Plains. Florida is a 9.5 favorite, and they deserve to be. They play good offense and good defense,and generally stay within their system and roles. Statistically they have the advantage all over the floor. Their worst statistical category is asst/fg ratio, which is only marginally better than ours. Which means they don't get a lot of assists, compared to the number of overall field goals. The scary thing is they are the best in the country at limiting assits and opposing asst/to margin. Considering we just blew a 20 point second half lead, largely in part to 26 points off of turnovers, I'd say this is a bad match up for us at a bad time. Harper and Johnson will have to play lights out (protecting the ball) for us to have any chance. There is no secret here, we have to be first half Auburn for the full game. Is that achievable, probably not, but it is possible. I wouldn't be surprised to see some runs in this game, good and bad. Florida isn't a perfect team, they are very average in their shooting percentages, it is their defense that is above average, and their defense that wins them games. They have only allowed 80+ points twice all season, back in December, and the lost both games. They held UK to 66 three games ago and Gonzaga to 77 earlier in the year. If we have any shot, we have to be the third team to get into the 80s because our defense is not good enough to hold them under their season average of 79 points per game. So we need to go off on offense, and limit them as much as possible in transition. Win or lose, how we respond to the disappointment of the Ole Miss game is the secondary story-line here. Do we fold up shot and call it a season, be happy we made any bubble projection and call it a good year, or do we rally for a strong finish to the year, get to 20 wins, and some post season play? I think this is a resilient bunch that has shown the ability to bounce back more than once. We have only lost back to back games one time all season, when we started SEC play 0-3. We responded vs TCU after a bad loss to SC, we responded vs bama after a bad loss to UT, it's time to respond again. War Eagle!

Without any specific knowledge I'm always reluctant to question a guys attitude for several reasons. Purifoy never seemed to display a bad attitude on the court so I have no idea if he did off of it, but Pearl used that word engaged more than once when talking about him. The only thing I have noticed, is he seemed to be overly passive on offense a few times, had an open shot and didn't shoot, but I will be watching him more tonight to see how this develops. Maybe nothing.

One additional note. I reading the post game notes and pre game notes for this game, CBP has made a few comments about Purifoy that I find interesting. In complimenting his offense and defense and talking about how nice it was to get him "back" CBP said it was good to have him "engaged." I don't want to make to much of this, but seeing has Purifoy has been off the last few games, I thought I'd mention it.

Thanks. I started it, really to try and increase the posts on this forum as it get so little traffic compared to Football and Recruiting. I have enjoyed it, even though I missed a few games due to travel and work etc. I played ball for a long time at a pretty good level, watch a lot of ball, and have close friends who are in the coaching profession. That being said I have no inside info to the program or players, just observations based on what I see and hear. As to MSU's shooting, they don't shoot great, but they are streaky. Weatherspoon specifically. He has a handful of games where he shoots crazy percentages from 3. We have let a few guys have career nights vs our defense, so it will be important to keep him contained, on the perimeter specifically. That is a tough task for Heron if he draws it, and Brown would give up some size if he draws it. Interesting to see who CBP puts on him.

Auburn (15-8, 4-6) vs. Mississippi State (14-8, 5-5) Tuesday, February 7th, 2017 8:00PM CT ESPNU / WatchESPN Auburn, AL (Auburn Arena) Another Tuesday and another chance to take a step towards postseason play. The last two such Tuesdays have gone poorly from opening tip, things must change today if we want to make a run at the NCAA. Auburn comes in playing pretty well, winners of 4 out of their last 6. Despite the losses mentioned, AU has steadily been climbing the RPI ladder over the last three weeks, improving from near 100 to just shy of 60. Mississippi State comes in trending the opposite direction, losers of 4 out of their last 6, with an RPI of 112. According the the vegas line, Auburn is a solid home favorite of -5 tonight, most metrics like AU over MSU as well. Don't sleep on the bulldogs. Though they have struggled as of late, early in SEC play they reeled off three wins in a row vs LSU, Akry, and A&M. AU is yet to win three league games in a row, in fact a win tonight would only be the second time we have won back to back league games. Early in league play MSU was scoring in the 80s routinely, but in their last three they are only averaging 63 points per game. One possible reason is that one of their point guards has missed most of the last three games (IJ Ready). He doesn't give them much in the way of points per game, but does give them production in the form of assists and steals. He is questionable for the game tonight and we are yet to see if he will play. In any event, their best player is clearly Weatherspoon. He is a 6-4 guard and averages 16 points and 5 boards per game. Heron, Duanans, Brown will all spend some time guarding him tonight and we will see how far Heron's defense has improved. They don't have a particularly big lineup, playing a couple of 6-10 guys and 6-7ish forwards. Wiley will have a chance to assert himself inside. Due to their size we may see Spencer rested tonight if he isn't 100% as MSU is not a particularly good rebounding team. IF Spencer is good to go then we may find ourselves with an advantage on the boards. MSU doesn't present any problems we haven't seen this season. We a a better team and should win this game for many reasons, but we know this team has shown inconsistencies and is not in a place where we know what we will see when the ball is tossed. Things I think CBP will focus on is getting off to a good start. Harper is playing well of late, winning the Freshman of the week award for the second time last week, but I still believe Johnson could see early playing time if Harper gets off to a slow start. We will likely see Purifoy get another start tonight, and I would argue that we need to insert Brown into the starting lineup and put Dunans back in his sixth man role where he seems to be at his best. I think at this point we know what we are going to get out of Heron every night on offense. The big question is what will we get from this team on defense. As I said, MSU has scored in the 60s in their last three games. We have only held one team in the 60s in all of SEC play. This is good timing for someone, either our defense can find itself against a struggling MSU offense, or vise versa. I have seen some signs of the defense improving, better communication, fewer wide open shots allowed, and increased ball pressure. The next step is to collect more defensive rebounds. Not only will it improve the amount of second chance points we allow, but it will also allow us to get out in transition more and score more fast-break points. While this may not be a must win, this is a big chance for us to gain ground in the SEC standings and get our RPI into the 50s. It is the starting point of any post season push that we could make. A loss here, to a 100+ RPI team at home would require us to beat UF and some other big name in the SEC tourney to overcome it. Simply put, IF this team is going to the post season (without anything miraculous), we win this game. Box out and get this win. War Eagle!

spencer is out, Purifoy starting and we will see Lang and Smith at the 4 depending on how the matchup fits the circumstances.

He's questionable, and that may move DP back to the starting lineup at the 4.

Auburn (14-8, 3-6) vs. Alabama (13-8, 6-3) Saturday, February 4th, 7:30PM CT SEC Network / WatchESPN Tuscaloosa, Ala. (Coleman Coliseum) We travel to hostile territory today for a crucial SEC game. A win and we still have everything to play for, a loss and we have to start looking at salvaging the season. Here is the preview from the first bama matchup with some good stuff on personnel. As for today's matchup, we have to play better defense and we have to get off to a better start. I wouldn't be surprised to see johnson get some early minutes to help with the slow starts, or a change to the starting lineup. Perhaps brown finds his way back into the starting lineup and Dunans back to his sixth man role. Brown did a great job on Ingram in the first matchup. Purifoy was also very good in defense in the first matchup, but had gone downhill since. Whether it's his ankle or something more is all speculation, but he hasn't produced since bama. Maybe this rematch is what is needed to get him going. Bama is a 6.5 point favorite on their home court tonight sitting at 66 in the RPI. A win on the road here could move our RPI from the mid 70s back down to the low 60s, within striking distance of the top 50. This will be a revealing game. We can afford to lose this game if we want any postseason consideration. I don't like the term "must win" but basically that's what this is. I'll stress again how important the start of the game is. We have had too many slow starts, most of which we never recovered from. Bring the intensity and defense early and bring home a win. War Eagle!

As of now most sports books have it as an even line, I've seen one with UT favored by one and one with AU favored by one.

Looking at the stats they foul a lot and give up a lot of free throws. Wiley may have another good night at the stripe. We may go big Big to counter their small lineup and force some fouls early in the halves to get to the bonus early. Will be interesting to to see how CBP decides to handle their smaller lineup. Harper will have his hands full and Johnson may be the better matchup for us. Though Harper may be the better perimeter defender.

Auburn (14-7, 3-5) vs. Tennessee (12-9, 4-4) Tuesday, January 31st, 8:00PM CT SEC Network / WatchESPN Auburn Arena One big loss followed by a big win, such is life with this talented bunch of freshmen Tigers. Only one thing is certain with this bunch, they keep you guessing. This week we have a real chance to shift the postseason narrative in our favor, or relegate ourselves to hoping for any postseason tourney. UT and bama, both have good RPIs, are "hot" teams right now, and will be tough outs, but UT at home and bama on the road would also both be "good" wins on the resume. They will both be winnable games with narrow Vegas point spreads (the UT game is a pick'em at the moment and may move 1 point either way by tip off), we must get one of these games, preferably both and get to .500 in the league this week. UT is a small team. They have a center with good size, but that is it. The rest of their starters are 6'5'' or smaller, but they make up for it with aggressive tough play. They will not be timid coming into our place after the games they have played this year. They are only 12-9 on the season, but have one of the top SOS in the country with games vs Wisconsin, Oregon, UNC, Gonzaga, UK and Kansas St. Also of note, they are 3-3 on the road, 6 wins vs top 100 RPI or better teams. For comparison we have 3 such wins. They play a style that should suit our guys well, getting up and down the court, as they play small, but they are one of few SEC teams that have a positive rebounding margin. This demonstrates that though they play small, the play tough. Toughness has been an area that has been lacking for us at times and has cost us some big games. This week will put our toughness under a microscope, because we have more talent than UT or bama, but not enough to just show up and win. There have been a lot of reports this week that CBP has cut his rotation down to 9 guys. I began talking about that here, two weeks ago as something we needed to do. CBP also went out of his way to spotlight the resurgence of Brown offensively and defensively, as many know here I have been a Brown backer and personally am happy to see him playing well. One thing I would like to highlight here is to check out L. Smith's Twitter feed. During his recent time on the bench his Twitter feed has been an example of great attitude, and shows how good of a teammate he is. WIth UT being a small athletic team, we may see Purifoy return to the starting lineup if he is healthy, if not we may see Dunans at the four some this game. UT has pretty balanced scoring, and plays good man defense. Dunans, Harper and Johnson will need to continue to create for others, move the ball and make the defense work. Wiley will have a great chance for another big game as he is going to be the biggest guy on the court again. UT may look to double him this game, so he will need to be ready to make the kickout pass when needed. One thing we saw vs TCU that I would expect to see again was a high/low game with our 4s and 5s. Passing into the post from the high post was effective vs TCu and could be again vs a small UT. I hate to sound like a broken record, but I think we should be able to find enough scoring to win, the question will be can we guard. They can penetrate from 3, maybe 4, spots, so we will have to play a lot of help defense and rotate based on assignment. We haven't done that well to date, so I am concerned about that. We have very similar stats on both sides of the ball, but they have done it vs better competition. Most of the metrics give them an edge in this matchup if both teams play an average game. So the real question is are we trending up, figuring things out, or are we left waiting to see which tigers will show up. The Auburn fan in me is optimistic that the piece are coming together. This week will tell us a lot as these two teams will make our young guns uncomfortable at times, how will they respond? From here on out, we will always need to win the next one, so this one is a big one. Let's get it. War Eagle.

Auburn (13-7, 3-5) vs. TCU (14-6, 3-5) Saturday, January 28th, 5:00PM CT Fort Worth, TX (Schollmaier Arena) ESPNU / WatchESPN Well that wasn't the effort we were hoping for vs SC. Now at 3-5 in the SEC, we are back in the bottom half, but with some winnable league games coming up. But first, our last non-con game of the regular season. The fact we lost badly on the road to a ranked team doesn't hurt the post season resume as much as our pride. Our RPI is sitting at 72 and a win here would work wonders on that number. So what better way to bounce back than a road game vs a top 30 RPI team in TCU? This won't be much of an in-depth preview as I have been unplugged for a few days, but will give some general thoughts. I like the way we matchup vs TCU better than SC. TCU is a balanced scoring team who plays a similar style of ball to AU. That should allow our young players to feel more comfortable on the road. It is imperative we get off to a good start, the Purdue and SC went bad from the get go. Even though I like Harper, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw Johnson early in this one, starting or being the first off the bench if things don't start well. Hopefully the defensive effort will be better, I was genuinely surprised that we played so poorly vs SC after the way we closed the bama game, but youth can be unpredictable. This is a big weekend for the SEC. We need some wins in this BIG12/SEC challenge to help everyone in the league. This weekend could go a long way to determining the number of teams we get in the dance and other postseason tourneys. More is better. I hope our Dr. Jekyll turns into Mr. Hyde for this one.

One last observation before I'll be tied up pretty much until the tip off. SC beat FL 57-53 with FL shooting 0% from three point land, going 0-17. SC lost to UK 69-85 with UK going 8-20. If FL shoots 11% (2-17) they win that game. I don't think we can simply overwhelm them the way UK did, but I think we have the talent to score enough to get them out of their comfort zone. War Eagle!

Sorry the piecemeal preview this has turned into, but I left out an important item. SC's second leading scorer (who missed the UK game) is supposed to play vs us tonight. Silva is a 6-8ish forward who has had some back issues. This bit of info, may play in to why the line is a little lower than the metrics would suggest. How healthy he is will be a factor here, much like Purifoy's health (which looked ok vs bama).

Had a chance to look deeper at the stats this am and here are a couple of things of note: SC leads the country in the fewest assists allowed per game, and opposing assist to turnover margin. This just confirms what I said above about the need for Harper to play well, but this also highlights the need for our wings to move the ball. Dunans has shown the ability to do this, and again balance from him is what we need. A couple of games back I pointed out that we haven't lost a game when Heron has multiple assists, with teams starting to zero in on him, this would be a great time to have a multi assist game. One thing that the stats reveal is that SC fouls alot (21 times per game) Auburn does too (20 per game), but SC gives up 4 more free throws a game. Combine this with the fact that Auburn is good at generating FT attempts (27 per game #7 in the country) and SC is not (shooting 20 per game), and you see that we have a chance to shoot 7-10 more free throws. This is their weakest area statistically speaking. In my preview I mentioned that we need to attack off the dribble drive, this is confirmed by these stats. So I will be watching Harper (and Johnson) closely, as well as our dribble drive offense and free throw shooting. Other than pace of the game, these areas could prove critical.

The line is now out, and it is set at 9.5. I usually base my projected lines off a few metrics that I really like, this line is adjusted down from where those metrics place the game. Additionally, the over/under is set at 136.5 (that would be a score of something in the range of 72-63), for us to have a chance we need the game to go over that total into the upper 70s. A game in the 60s is bad news for us.

Auburn (13-6, 3-4) vs. No. 23 South Carolina (15-4, 5-1) Tuesday, January 24th, 5:30PM CT SEC Network / WatchESPN Columbia, SC I'm on the road again this week, and so are our Tigers. This will be a fairly simple preview, but I think SC is a straightforward team. Thornwell is really good, and they play really tough. After a huge week of home wins vs LSU and bama, Auburn heads on the road with two games this week vs top 30 RPI teams. The first is #23 South Carolina, who statistically is the best defensive team in the league, although they did give up 85 vs Kentucky without Fox most of the night. (Important to note that SC was without their second leading scorer vs UK, Silva) They are a good team and they impose their style of play on you, by slowing the game down, going big, going small, and playing with toughness. They will be favored by 10.5 points or so (vegas line not yet out) at home, and will be tough to beat. Matchup-wise our primary, maybe only, focus needs to be on Thornwell. He is their best player, and their team plays through him most of the game. He plays every position on the court except the 5, and he is the key to their ability to play big and play small. I would expect them to play big against us and try to slow the game down. Looking to get him matched up against Harper, Brown or Johnson in the post or high post a good bit. The big question is who do we want to guard him, perhaps Heron or Dunans will draw that asignment. In any event, holding him in check will be key. If they go big, rebounding will be the other key, they aren't huge, but have good size and excellent toughness in the post. Wiley again will be the biggest guy on the court and could be the difference if we are going to get this win. As for our best chance to win, I think we have to look at what Kentucky did. Guards have been able to penetrate vs SC's perimeter defense, and I think that's where we need to attack, but first we need to establish Wiley inside. He doesn't have to have 20 and 10 for us to win, but we need to force SC to guard the post and the perimeter. Additionally, we need to force Thornwell to play defense. Don't allow their substitutions to determine how we play, if he has to exert himself on both ends it will affect his offense. SC is athletic, and a near lock for the NCAA, this a great reality check for where we are as a team. Have we indeed turned a corner over this 3-1 stretch, or will we have a two steps forward one step back kinda moment. This game and the next vs TCU is a chance to get a W that was not planned on, and make up for the early loss to Ole Miss. It would bring us .500 in the league and give us a bump in the RPI (currently 70). We need to get Harper back on track this game for us to have our best chance. He has been quiet recently, but I would like to see him return to his aggressive self, penetrating over these next two games. I think we actually can give their defense a lot of trouble. If we can get a lead early and get them out of their game, we can extend our SEC winning streak. War Eagle.

We'd be 15-6 and .500 in the league with several good road wins. I think we would be on the outside looking in but in the discussion. We will be 10 point or more dogs in both games. So even a split would be good and help our case.