JwgreDeux

In the event we don't get a shot in transition or from our secondary break, our base offense is modeled around flex principles. In some games we use certain cuts and screens more due to the defense being played by the other team. We certainly have some iso offense and some set plays mixed in. Moving the lineup around and putting guys in new spots will cause them to have to think more, Spencer hasn't played the 4 in his entire time at Auburn, and hasn't had to guard much outside of the paint. Putting him on a 4 that steps out, or putting him in spots where he is asked to switch on to a 3 or a 2 off a ball screen is asking him to do things he hasn't had to do. He is athletic and mobile for a 5, but not if guarding a 3 on the perimeter in an iso off a switch. Spencer's experience in playing help defense to this point is to come off of his man and try and block a shot as they are coming to the basket. Helping from the 4 spot is different, as Wiley will be coming to block the shot and Spencer will be asked to slide down and catch Wiley's man, and to go after fewer blocks, that's against his nature. He can learn it, but you can't just put him at the 4 and expect him to play it as well as he does the 5 overnight.

Very few teams send more than 3 players to the glass when on offense. The 1 and the 2 generally have transition defense responsibilities that begin as a shoot goes up. So moving Heron to the 2 will take him out of offensive rebounding opportunities by assignment, much of the time. On defense, the rebounding also changes as Heron will no longer have a box out responsibility most of the time, as his man will not be crashing the glass as often. Depending on the opponent, and how similar their 2 and 3 man are, he also may be drawn farther from the primary rebounding areas. So while many parts of the position are similar and overlap, there are nuances to each spot. Not to mention that each will be guarding and being guarded by a different type of player that what they have seen to this point in their college career. My point is simply that our first year players (Smith, Purifoy, Heron, Harper, Johnson, and WIley) haven't fully learned their current spots, and certainly haven't developed chemistry there. Our veterans (sophomores Brown and Spencer) are coming back from suspension with a new player added into the fold. Moving one to a new position, with all the other disruptions going on, is asking a lot of a very young and inexperienced team. I can understand why many view the change of positions an easy transition, but there's more to it than meets the eye. I can also see the benefits to having Spencer at the 4 alongside Wiley, and I am sure we will see it at times, but am just pointing out that putting more size on the court doesn't instantly solve some of the issues we've been facing in the defense and rebounding areas.

The betting line has now moved to AU -1.5

I'm not sure where to start on this, they are similar on the offensive end but not at all on the defensive end. The big differences will be in the help defense assignments and the defensive rebounding assignments, both areas where we struggle. Adding size alone doesn't help these struggles, as many of our current struggles are missed assignments. A massive restructure like this will cause growing pains, and for a team with so many moving parts already, I think now is a bad time to do this. Wiley is learning new things. He has had like 5 practices to learn our schemes on O and D. My point was he doesn't know his job yet, and making the changes suggested would mean 4 of the 5 guys on the floor would still be learning the roles. Let's not forget that we don't have great chemistry at the spots they have been playing yet. I don't disagree there are some pros to the changes, but I think the cons out weigh them right now. Just an opinion. My preview down playing him was about his immediate impact, on day 1. Not his overall impact moving forward. As we have seen, we haven't suddenly become a dominate team. And yes, DP's 15 rebounds were about individual effort, not Wiley occupying multiple guys, as UConn wasn't putting a double box on Wiley. Everyone likely knows every spot in a flex offense as it is about principles, so no matter where you end up on the floor you should know what to do, but the roles are different on set plays, in-bounds plays, offensive rebounding assignments, etc...and they are NOT interchangeable on the defensive end, 2 and 3 are the most similar, but they have different help assignments and rebounding assignments. Heron is our best rebounder, moving him to the 2 will take him out of more rebounding opportunities.

I can't think of disagreeing about him helping the team, I remember backing you up about how he could actually help us get out in transition better. My disagreement was that we couldn't shoot better without a strong post presence, not that having one would help us.

If we move DP to the 3 and MH to the 2, ad many have proposed every player in the floor will be learning a new position. This would be happening mid season as SEC play begins. 4 and 3 are not interchangeable, 2 and 3 are not interchangeable, and neither are 4 and 5. Asking Spencer, Purifoy, Heron and Wiley to all learn or relearn our schemes for their positions is ambitious.

I never disagreed in the ways Wiley could help. I simply said we were capable of shooting and rebounding better than we were before he arrived.

Brown's minutes leading up to his suspension were 21 mins vs Upstate, 22 vs UAB, and 28 vs BC, not a downward trend. His production has been down so far this season, but Brown is/was a starter for a reason. He is also our best on ball defender, which doesn't show up on a stat sheet. If we are going to get to the tourney, he needs to come back playing well. With Wiley's addition, Brown's game should improve.

Had we lost to Mercer and UConn, we wouldn't be talking about being a bubble team, and those suspensions wouldn't feel like a PR thing. I can emphasize enough how much of a disruption that was to the team. Losing our only returning starters and adding a 17 true freshman without a real practice before he plays in and later starts a game. The fact that we didn't lose a game when they were out is a borderline miracle. We found something good with putting McLemore at the 5, so I don't think he is going to give up those minutes. I don't think it's a PR thing, and I will be watching closely how many minutes Spencer and Brown get tomorrow, but judging off of Spencer's 3 vs UConn, they still have a ways to go to get back into the rotations. CBP made it clear on his presser today that they were not suspended during the last two games, they were available, just didn't play them.

Last year the three SEC teams that had the 11-7 records had RPI's of 71, 73, and 95. Vandy made it due to their non-conference SOS being 32, while SC's and LSU's were 200+. Florida had a decent resume at 21-15 with an RPI of 45, but were 9-9 in the league and lost 4 of their last 5. Last year the SEC finished 6th in conference RPI and would have had 4 bids if not for terribly weak non-conference schedules. Hopefully we get more bids this year. I think we need 21+ wiins, 11+ SEC wins, and an RPI in the 50's. The RPI include factors we can't control, and will undoubtedly provide plenty of cause for discussion. We need BC to win some games and get out of the 200s, and other opponents to play well in their conferences. The addition of Wiley at the break makes us a different team than the one that got blown out by Purdue and lost to BC, that will help us if we are in the bubble discussion.

interesting read: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/did-austin-wiley-and-auburn-introduce-basketball-to-the-one-and-a-half-and-done-144144205.html

I think you will see less of Smith generally barring foul trouble for others. McLemore seems to play better at the 5 so I think we will continue to see him in that spot even with Spencer back. I would expect to see Spencer and McLemore play both the 4 and 5 spot. I personally like DP at the 4, and would like to see him stay there most of his minutes, but he has already been playing some minutes at the 3 since the addition of Wiley. More than anything, CBP is going to go with the groupings that gell, and Spencer and Brown clearly have to earn their way back, based off of Spencer's 3 minutes logged vs UConn.

from the OP: Since my post the line has been posted as AU -2 ( I was pretty close).

CBP said today in his presser: that they have had three practices before the Georgia game. Said Wiley only knew 10-15% as of his first start and now knows around 40% of schemes. Yesterday was his first live contact practice at Auburn, everything else had been walk throughs and film. He is still getting caught up on what we do, haven't begun adding anything new for him yet. Emphasized the need for Harper to play well, and the challenge Fraizer presents. He also praised Waddell and McLemore for their efforts recently with guys out.

No reason to think he won't make his usual contributions. We will need him to continue to keep rebounding well. Their guards aren't slow or nonathletic, but they are not extremely talented athletes. I think DP could have a big night, as the post players who could end up guarding him are not very athletic.

Auburn (10-2) vs. Georgia (8-4) Thursday, December 29, 2016 6:00PM CT TV: ESPNU Auburn, Ala. (Auburn Arena) After a solid performance in the non-conference schedule, Auburn enters SEC play at 10-2, one win shy of last year's total. We open conference play at home vs the Georgia Bulldogs Thursday night, and you have to expect the Tigers will have a home crowd waiting to erupt. Georgia comes in at 8-4, and ranked very close to Auburn in most metrics and the RPI. One interesting note about the projections of these teams, is that Georgia is consistently projected to finish one or two spots in front of Auburn in the SEC, fighting for that 5th spot in the league. I say that to say, this is a game that can start to change the perception of this team. There is no Vegas line out at the time of writing this, but I would expect Auburn to be a slight favorite (-1.5) or a pick-em game. Both teams need this win badly if they are going to achieve their goals, so I expect a close hard fought game, barring a Coastal Carolina like shooting night. Georgia isn't overly impressive in any way, no big wins, no overwhelming talent or size, and no awe-inspiring skill guys. What they do have is experience, chemistry, and solid talent at key positions, namely PG and PF. Almost all of their statistical leaders are juniors, red-shirt juniors and seniors. Their two best players are their point guard Frazier and their 4 man Maten. Frazier is a senior who was second team all SEC last season and is averaging 15pts a game as well as leading the Bulldogs in assists. He is a scoring point guard who has the ball in his hands a lot, how we defend him will go a long way to determine the outcome of this game. Georgia does most of it's damage from inside the arch (we have attempted 100 more threes than they have), and Maten is their go to guy in that department, averaging nearly 20pts per game. Overall they only average 72pts per game to our 80, otherwise we are fairly evenly matched the other primary statistical areas. To me the way to look at this game is which team has the ability to play above their average. I think it is Auburn. Considering the adversity we have faced over the last few weeks, I believe we can play better basketball than we have seen so far. On to the match-ups, Georgia likes to run half court sets, with good ball movement and flex cutting. They incorporate a lot of high ball screens and frequently utilize the high-low post entry pass to Maten. Frazier is their best player at creating his own shots and also at creating for others. Due to his size (5'10'') and quickness, he can be a tough match-up if we switch those ball screens. Their primary post players have OK size at 6-8 240ish each, but only Maten is a real scoring threat. Wiley will be the biggest player on the court and should factor into the game with his defense. Harper and Johnson will have a tough task containing Frazier, but both have the tools necessary to frustrate him and force some bad shots, which he will take from time to time. They have been held to 60 or fewer points three times, and the most they have scored all season is 86. They are unlikely to present an offensive threat superior to what we have faced previously this season. We have the ability to limit what they do on offense, with heavy perimeter ball pressure, and good defensive rebounding effort. Offensively, we will face a mixture of match-up zone and man defenses. Both of their posts are capable shot blockers and they do a good job of team rebounding. Teams have had success getting out and running in transition against them, and I would look for us to try to push the pace. They play 10 guys double digit minutes, but they play Maten and Frazier 30 minutes + each. They hold teams to under 40% from the field, but allow 34% shooting from three, so this may be a good night for our shooters, especially playing at home. In the half court, I would expect us to pack in the defense, forcing them to shoot outside jump shots, possibly denying the entry. I would expect us to press at times, as Georgia will turn it over if you speed them up. On offense, I think we will try to push the pace and turn this into a shoot out. They have allowed 80 + points twice, losing both games. We have the talent and skill advantage in this game, but they have the experience advantage by a large margin. They won't be afraid of a bunch of freshman and I expect them to emphasize an active match-up zone defense early. It will be tempting for our shooters to try and shoot them out of it, but we need to get the ball into Wiley and utilize the dribble drive to create kick out opportunities for in rhythm open three point shots. If shots aren't dropping points in the paint will be even more important. Brown is available, per Bruce Pearl, how many minutes will he get, and has he found his stroke? One match up to watch is Harper vs Fraizer, can Harper continue his good play when matched up with one of the better and most experienced points in the league. This also might be the game that Purifoy returns to his scoring form, as all of Georgia's 4 men are not very quick, and will struggle to guard him on step outs. He might be the key for our offense to get going tonight, using that mismatch to our advantage. There are a lot of questions about this Auburn team right now, what are Brown and Spencer's roles, has the layoff allowed Wiley to improve conditioning and knowledge of the schemes, how will this team look with a full roster available, are there enough minutes to go around. I will be watching the developments in these areas closely leading up to the game. We got a win even though we allowed UConn to dictate pace, we can't make that mistake again here and expect to win. Go get'em. War Eagle.

Our RPI is up to #42 with a home game coming against #39 Georgia. We are on the cusp y'all, everything is there for the taking.

There was a lot in that board, definitely game notes. Hard to see as much is obstructed. Appears to primarily be defensive assignments and help side alignments, based on the alignment of UConn's offensive set.

FINAL (OT): Auburn 70 UConn 67 We surged late in the second half, stumbled in the final minutes of regulation, but rallied for a great overtime road win. The winning team was +5 in rebounds , +6 in offensive rebounds, +5 in second chance points, and +10 in points in the paint. Surprisingly, this team was your Auburn Tigers. This l type of response is exactly what you hope to see from a group of young players facing adversity in their second straight game on the road. We pressed a bit early in the game, but Jared Harper took control late to earn a big win heading into conference play. Defense and rebounding, plain and simple, got it done tonight. This wasn't Austin Wiley, or Horace Spencer's return, this was just determination and development of a young team. Danjel Purifoy played almost the whole game and brought down 15 boards along the way. Mustapha Heron had a another productive game and Harper continues to impress in big moments. The defense wasn't great, but it was close. We will have a very good chance to win any game we hold our opponents under 70 points. The offense wasn't great, shot a poor percentage, forced some shots early, but attacked the basket in the second half and crashed the boards. It was a great adjustment by CBP and Harper. One theme we have been watching all season is how our youth develops. Well, this is another mark in the Win column and another tick on our growth chart. It would have been easy for this group to fold once UConn was able to force overtime, instead we came out swinging and got the W. Continued some growing pains for sure, but you have to be encouraged about the response and the rebounding. Enjoy this one. We are in a great spot heading into conference play, with all of our dreams still alive. With this victory, we are 1 shy of last year's win total .... it's only December. So for all of you not yet getting excited about Auburn Basketball, what are you waiting for?! War Eagle!

I'm on vacation and am previewing from my phone so bear with me ... Auburn comes into this game off of a confidence boosting win looking to finish the non-con strong. UConn comes in playing much better ball than they were early on. They have good size in the post and run their offense through post ups. They will post at the high post and low post and have pretty good interior passing as well. We haven't played anyone that plays this way and it will be a challenge for our defense. While it will be unfamiliar to us, they didn't average very many points per game, and don't shoot well from the perimeter. Our interior will be tested. Look for us to press more and try and speed them up and limit their half court sets. When we are on Offense they will play both man and zone, they have been playing more zone recently. They do a good job of slowing the game down and limiting possessions and keeping the scoring low. I would look for us to push the tempo at times to speed the game up. As of now we are a slight (+3) underdog, but have the better RPI and ranked higher in most metrics. The home court and our roster shuffling is likely the reason for the line, which I would have made as AU -1.5. Again rebounding needs to an emphasis and we need to limit turnovers. Watch the tempo, fast pace good, slow pace bad. Go get em, War Eagle.

This year the conference looks stronger overall, I'd say we are likely a four team league, maybe five depending how the chips fall. Right now the SEC is sixth in overall RPI.

.500 won't be good enough.

FINAL: Auburn 74 OU 70 I'd say we measured up pretty well. A lot to be happy about, but some kinks are clearly being ironed out. These Tigers are literally growing up before our eyes. Considering we are starting 4 freshman, and bringing one more off the bench, these Tigers have shown a lot of maturity. Surrounded by young talent, T.J. Dunans is finding his fit and the result is a very dangerous Auburn team. Combined with Heron's double double and Harper's closing efforts, we got a big WIN on a neutral site that has bumped our RPI up to 47, keeping our post season dreams a possibility. From my preview: "Offensively, I like the way that Heron matches up with against their defense, perhaps he has another big game in his homecoming. Defensively, I would like to see ball pressure in the half court and less press when they go small, forcing them to run half court sets. Purifoy will be looking at guys that can move as well as he can with similar size when he is at the 4 spot, and I will be watching to see how he responds to his struggles from our last game. I think for us to get the win, we need to move the ball well and make some jumps shots, and hold them to 70 points(ish)." Mustapha Heron didn't disappoint in his homecoming, having a big production game with 15 pts and 12 rebs, shooting 50% from the field and from 3. He did press at times, which led to several turnovers, but overall you have to like the way his game is steadily coming along. Danjel Purifoy didn't really struggle, he was strangely passive, perhaps making an effort to get others involved, sensing that Heron and Dunans had the hot hands, in any event, I don't want to see much more of it. He is a scorer and I'd like to see him move towards his more aggressive days. Certainly, everyone's style will be altered by the addition of Austin Wiley, but DP was too passive in this one only taking handful of shots, and shooting 0 free throws.What was noticeably better was our defense. Granted OU missed some open shots, holding a team to 30% from the field is a great sign, especially without two of our better defenders playing in the game. Holding them to the number of points I thought we would need to in order to get this win. OU was without the best player, but we were without two of our starters, so how you view that is quite subjective. I watched our rotations closely to see what CBP had in mind and was surprised by a few things. First, Devin Waddell played as much as Wiley, and twice as much as LaRon Smith. Perhaps his role will be turned over to Horace Spencer once he is back in CBP's good graces. This will be interesting to continue to watch, as Waddell and Wiley were on the floor together a good bit, and this would mean a move to the 4 by Spencer, something that many posters have been discussing on the forum this week. We still saw plenty of Purifoy at the 4, but what CBP has in mind for the rotation going forward will be something to keep an eye on. Rebounding was better overall, but we still gave up too many offensive rebounds. The only reason OU was even in this ball game at the end was due to offensive rebounds and turnovers, getting 26 points off of turnovers or second chances, +9 in their favor in this area. We have been very good at limiting turnovers, so I don't think there is any need to panic about that. Most of them, 11 actually, came from Heron and Wiley. Heron pressed a bit, and Wiley's ball security will improve with experience, so again I think this will be corrected, but rebounding has to continue to be harped on. I hope the return of Spencer will help in that department, combined with Wiley's development. WIth OU's comfort in an uptempo game, I wasn't surprised to see us press less and try to make them execute in the half court, that mentality did seem to slow us down as well, only getting 4 fast break points all game. Perhaps this was deliberate by CBP, but it seemed we could have pushed the tempo offensively at times. Wiley's stat line won't blow you away, but I am very impressed with his play to this point. He clearly has come conditioning to due to get acclimated to the college game, but that is to be expected. He was very efficient, shooting a high percentage, commanding attention and defending well. However, I believe his rebounding was limited due to him being gassed at times. I would expect that to come along over the next couple of weeks. The fact that he earned a start in his second game is a testament to his ability and potential. This win, puts us back on the track I outlined a few weeks ago, regarding a possible tournament resume. The BC put us behind, and this win, where we were the underdog on a neutral court, puts us back on our path. UCONN is waiting tomorrow, a mid-day tip, and it will be revealing to see how we handle that game and this success. Two games in that time frame against OU and UCONN, is a simulation of what tournament play is like. We are currently 7th in the league in RPI, but within reach of the 4 spot with only a few more wins. That is likely the spot we need to occupy to be in the tourney discussion. The current team sitting is 4th is Georgia, who we open league play with, but that is for another post at another time. Big win. War Eagle!

Wednesday we get a little preview of this year's Sugar Bowl match-up vs the Oklahoma Sooners. Though they went to the Final Four last season, Oklahoma finds itself relying on underclassmen for production and in need of a win, losers of 3 of its last 4, after starting the season 5-1. This game will be played on a neutral floor, the Mohegan Sun Arena in Connecticut, where Auburn's Heron has played and won 3 high school state championships. Looking at the rankings and metrics paints a cloudy picture of this match-up as the Tigers are higher in RPI, but the Sooners are favored by most predictive metrics. As a result the Tigers find themselves 6 point underdogs, at the opening line. Oklahoma will certainly be the most athletic team that we have faced all season. They were expected to be a NCAA tourney team, and certainly have the talent to right the ship and still get there despite their current RPI of 185. They have a nice win over a solid Clemson group, and no bad losses to speak of. They score 80+ points per game, but don't defend very well, giving up 73 per, both numbers are very close to our averages. Their SOS rank is 209 to our 137, so that is fairly similar as well. They shooting percentage is an unimpressive 46%, but they shoot 41% from three. They are a better rebounding club than we have been to this point, but not significantly so. They have a quality roster, and play 11 guys double digit minutes, but have shaken up their starting lineup several times. Their primary rotation looks very similar to ours, with good size at the wing, small point guard, and 6'8" posts without big bodies. However, the bring two guys off the bench that are 6'10", one of which will step out and make threes They only have two players averaging double digits in points, both guards, their top three scorers are all guard in fact 4 of their top 6 scorers are guards. One interesting thing I noticed is they have a negative assist to turn over ratio. Their best player is their starting point guard, Woodard #10, he plays 30 minutes per game and averages nearly 18 points per. They have struggled to score against better teams, averaging less that 70 vs top 100 RPI teams (as have we). They have only beaten one team with 5 or more wins, where we have beaten 4. In their last game the moved their starting point guard to the 2 spot and started their back up point at 1. Both played well in that role and they may stick with that. If so, it will put a spot light on who we start at the 2 spot. It sounds like Brown and Spencer having to "earn" they way back, means they won't start. If so I would be surprised to see Lang attempt to guard Woodard on the perimeter. Will we see Wiley moved into the starting line up in only his second game, shifting DP to 3 and Heron to 2? I would be completely guessing at who are starting five will be at this point, but I have to believe with their guards, our best line up would include Brown, we will see. They primarily run a man defense, which our guys will be more comfortable playing against than our last outing vs Mercer. They will switch a lot of guard/guard ball screens on the perimeter and double on post/guard ball screens. Harper will be pressured in the half court sets. They also frequently double the post, so Wiley will need to be alert in the post. Offensively they like the dribble drive, and do a good job of passing out of it. All of this pressure can lead to open shots with good ball movement, something we have lacked at times recently. I anticipate some struggles and growing pains in this game. So many variables on our side of this equation with the addition of Wiley and the returns of Brown and Spencer. It makes it very difficult to know what to expect, perhaps that works in our favor. Offensively, I like the way that Heron matches up with against their defense, perhaps he has another big game in his homecoming. Defensively, I would like to see ball pressure in the half court and less press when they go small, forcing them to run half court sets. Purifoy will be looking at guys that can move as well as he can with similar size when he is at the 4 spot, and I will be watching to see how he responds to his struggles from our last game. I think for us to get the win, we need to move the ball well and make some jumps shots, and hold them to 70 points(ish). I personally think we need to win at least one of our games in the State of Connecticut to keep dreaming of being invited to the dance. A loss here makes the next one a must win, a win here puts us in a great position heading into another game we should be favored in. It is vital for us to finish the non-con schedule well, and build some confidence. This is a winnable game if we defend and rebound better, it could be embarrassing if we don't. My old coach would call this a yard stick game, how do we measure up. 7:30 on CBS sports.