JwgreDeux

FINAL: Auburn 76 Mercer 74 Highlights: Box Score: Well that was exciting. Maybe now, some realize the value that T.J. Dunans adds to this team. I wasn't surprised it was tight at the half and it even felt like we were going to open it up when we took a six point lead with nine minutes to play. But we couldn't separate and in the end, Dunans found a way to get us the W. I'm happy to be writing this with another W in the win column, even if it was closer than it should have been. Speaking of that, was it, closer than it should have been? From my Preview: "Don't be alarmed if there are struggles, miscommunication, or other signs of regression due to the alteration in team chemistry. Losing two starters, having a transfer out, and a transfer in all in one week is quite the shake up. CBP will be put to the test as he tries to navigate this over the next few games." I would say that we played average overall, only rebounding was clearly below average. The sky isn't falling and the fact that we won that game keeps everything in front of us, for now. I highlighted it following our sensational shooting performance vs. Coastal Carolina but the trend of giving up offensive rebounding continues. With the addition of Austin Wiley and the rumors that Horace Spencer will be back next game, hopefully we can start to improve in that area. Offensively, we shot OK (40% from the floor and 37.5% from three) and scored a respectable amount of points. But getting to those numbers was not a thing of beauty. So coming off of a record shooting night, our boys were obviously tempted to try and pick up where we left off, with a lot of jump shots early in the shot clock in the first half. Additionally, when we did go to the hole things didn't go our way early. Mustapha Heron and Danjel Purifoy both missed shots and missed lay ups, may have been fouled on some of those, but you have to keep playing. I will say that it was obvious that the calls bothered our young players. They have to let CBP take care of that and continue to focus on their assignments. They played zone pretty much all night against us, and we got stagnant at times. This is not due to the lack of "offense" or "plays," but rather chemistry. They switched from a 2-3 zone to a box and 1, and I think I saw some 1-3-1 as well. These can be difficult to diagnose on the fly, in the heat of the game, and it caused us to play slow at times. When we did get in to our half court movements, we created some nice plays around the basket. It was good to see T.J. Lang make some shots, and Dunans played pretty well also, even before the game winner went down. Heron also played well, another solid, consistent night from him, without which, we would not have been able to stay in the game. We saw Purifoy struggle for the first time, pressing to get going rather than letting the game come to him. On at least three occasions, he got a defensive rebound and dribbled the ball all the way up the court himself, instead of making an outlet pass; twice he took the shot as well, missing both. Give credit to Mercer, they did a fantastic job of getting back on defense and forcing us into a half court game. Again, offensively, I didn't see anything I'm overly concerned about., plenty of areas to improve though. Defensively, we struggled to guard the perimeter. They were only 44% from the floor, but were 40% from three. If the rumors are true, Brown will be back next game to help out in this department. I don't have much to say about the defensive effort, other than our perimeter pressure wasn't very good. Rebounding was not good. We were out rebounded by 15, they collected 9 more offensive rebounds then we did. I've written about this before, so I won't harp on it again. It will be interesting to see how the addition of Wiley and the return of Spencer affects this moving forward. One thing I watched closely was the way Wiley was worked into the game, and the personnel groupings it caused as a result. The groupings with Wiley on the floor weren't surprising, but when he would sub out we saw some interesting groupings. We went super small with Jared Harper, Ronnie Johnson, Heron, Devin Waddell, and Anfernee McLemore, and another one I can remember was Johnson, Lang, Dunans, Waddell, and LaRon Smith. All of these groupings, caused a lot of time where the guys on the court were not accustomed to playing in game time situations with each other, and so naturally affected chemistry. Chemistry is needed in all phases of the game, not just offense, so it affected defense and rebounding as well. Additionally, we had an interesting grouping in the final minutes of the game, four freshmen. Which lead me to my next observation. Wiley got significant minutes, not just in duration (15), but significant situations. I was not surprised to see him early, but was surprised to see him as much as we did and at the times we did. Obviously, CBP believes Wiley is ready to be counted on. Could tell there was an effort to get him the ball, and he had good production. We all saw Dunans make a nice shot to win, and get carried off the court, but I'd like to highlight Heron on that play. He was the man in-bounding the ball. The play was designed as a high screen for Harper, he wanted to curl around it and get the ball moving towards the basket, but it was defended well. Harper came open as he came towards Heron, but if Heron had passed to Harper at that point he would have only been left with a very long fade away prayer. Instead, Heron came off of Harper and looked for his second option Dunans. T.J. did a nice job of floor spacing and shielding his man to create an opening. Heron calmly made the pass and the rest is history. Many players would be tempted to throw it where the coach designed it to go no matter what, Heron making the right read is what gave Dunans the chance go win it. In my opinion we must win 1 of our next 2 games vs Oklahoma and UConn, to keep discussing being a bubble team. We're capable of winning both but also capable of losing them. I said we had to win this game to keep our goals in front of us, and we did. On to the next one, Oklahoma on Wednesday on a neutral floor. War Eagle!

Couldn't agree more.

Not to my knowledge. I don't follow recruiting particularly close. I was making a joke as his "return" date wasn't really known, and now he is "home." Also, alluding to the fact that a lot of people are ready to throw a party right now before we get a sense of how this will all shake out.

The prodigal son arrives and will likely begin his AU career with a triple double. You can stop there if you expect that to happen, as the rest of this preview may not be as dreamy as you prefer. This is the second game in our stretch of four games in nine days, but the first with highly recruited 5 start center Austin Wiley. Auburn is coming off a offensive explosion, setting records from the three point line with 21 made threes, some of which came from near Toomers. Mercer comes in at 5-5 overall needing a win in the worst way, losing 4 of their last 5, and by 40 in their last outing against Clemson. Despite their record, Mercer brings in a team that is ranked higher in RPI (122) and by most metrics than our last two opponents (yes higher than the BC team that beat us). That is primarily due to their difficult schedule rather than to any impressive wins, as they don't have any. That being said, their loss to Clemson by 40 was similar to what we did to CC, Clemson shot nearly 47% from three and Mercer shot 26%, and the game got away from them. Mercer is still a worthy opponent, and given all the moving parts on our roster right now, we cannot afford to look past them. They don't score many points (62 per gm) or shoot a high percentage, but they do offensive rebound well, and tend to play better in the second half than the first. Having played Florida, Davidson and Clemson, they won't be intimated by our venue or team and are desperate for a win; I would expect to get their best shot especially early in the game. Auburn will likely be without Brown and Spencer again, unless something changes in the next 24 hours, and will again be looking at shuffling our lineup to make up for it. That will be further complicated by the addition of Austin Wiley, a highly touted 5 star center who is faster than a speeding bullet and can leap buildings in a single....oh wait I was reading the wrong recruit's page. In all seriousness, while he is no doubt a huge talent in many ways, you don't just throw a player on the court after a few practices and have instant chemistry, you don't expect to at least. I would expect CBP to insert him in the game in a deliberate manor. I'm not sure how many minutes he will play, but he didn't come in early to sit on the bench, and this is the only game we have left against inferior talent this season. I would project 10-12 minutes if the game is going well, less if it isn't, with some deliberate sets with him getting the ball in the post and some high pick and rolls. The sets he is ready to run will be limited, but the potential effect on our half court sets could be dramatic in many ways, floor spacing, inside/out movement, and offensive rebounding could improve almost immediately, even if he doesn't play like superman. His size will command attention from the opposing defense, period. With Spencer out, I would think the optimal plan would be to slide Wiley into Smith's spot in the rotation, but I would be a bit surprised to see that happen early in the game. Maybe we work off of the rotation we used vs Coastal early and if we get a decent cushion, we move towards our standard rotation with Smith in Spencer's role and Wiley in Smiths, just a shot in the dark. The Vegas line of this game is not out at the time of this preview. That line should be in the ballpark of 13 in my opinion, but I imagine the odds-makers expect some tweaking of the lineup as well, and production may suffer as a result, so I wouldn't be surprised with an unusual line (maybe no line at all). Don't be alarmed if there are struggles, miscommunications, or other signs of regression due to the alteration in team chemistry. Losing two starters, having a transfer out, and a transfer in all in one week is quite the shake up. CBP will be put to the test as he tries to navigate this over the next few games. This is a game we should win, a game we must win to keep all of our goals in front of us. As tempting as it may be to get Wiley in there, we have to win first. This may sound strange, but experimenting vs Oklahoma may be a better way to go, as a loss there doesn't hurt us, and a win would really help. In other words in that game we will have nothing to lose, where as in this game we have nothing to gain. Auburn is the better team without Wiley, with him we have more talent than any Mercer team could hope for, this game is about watching how CBP manages it. He has known about WIley's planned arrival for some time, and I'm sure he has a plan for this moment as well. Sunday 12pm on the SECn. Go get'em boys, War Eagle.

Agreed, fast break opportunities primarily come off of turnovers and defensive rebounds. With His added rebounding and rim protecting we increase opportunities to run. Also, there is an art to an outlet pass, the pass from the rebounder to the ball handler that starts the break, and our current lineup is lacking there. If anyone other than Spencer rebounds they tend to dribble it up the floor. Passing is faster than dribbling.

They hardly play at all.

Practiced today, will play Sunday. This will certainly change things. Normally I would say let's not get ahead of ourselves with a true freshman, but we have a few playing pretty well right now. On that note, Heron's run as our highest rated ever recruit didn't last long.

http://www.auburntigers.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/121616aaa.html

Based on RPI and predictive metrics, Mercer is actually ranked higher than both.

Forgot to include that it was absolutely wonderful to see Dunans make a few jump shots. He is a very important part of this team, I'm sure coming off the bench, benhind freshmen has been a bit of a struggle for him. Seeing some balls go down will go a long way to boost his confidence. He also had some highlight reel passes.

Games like last night help their cause.

FINAL: Auburn 117 Coastal Carolina 74 Well that was fun, and that 117 is not a typo, here is the box score to prove it: This game was about a leader stepping up and a gut check about where this team stands and I'm happy to say they obviously passed this test with flying colors. Purifoy was assertive from early in the game, Harper commanded the floor (7 assists and only 2 TOs), McLemore stepped up (8 rebounds) and everybody made shots. Let's not get too carried away with ourselves after a game like this but it was an encouraging effort given the uncertainty surrounding us at tip-off. One of the things I was watching was the playing rotation. There weren't any surprises there, with us playing extended minutes for McLemore and Smith, along with some quality minutes from Waddell to fill in for the loss of Spencer. This rotation was serviceable vs Coastal but will not be if this suspension lingers. To cover for Brown, Lang and Dunans played extended time, with Dunans getting 23 minutes. As expected many of our starters played a lot of minutes, with Harper, Heron and Purifoy all getting 25+. Offensively we didn't do much different scheme-wise, we simply made shots. Lots and lots of shots, setting a school record and tying a conference record for made three-point shots en-route to shooting 56% from the floor and 50% from three. I have been waiting for a breakout shooting game, and here it was. Defensively, we played pretty well. I said in my preview that we needed to keep them in the 60s, which we basically did until we emptied the bench for the last few minutes of the game. Speaking of which, that was fun to get to see those guys have some fun and make some plays. In the rebounding department we still have issues. At times it was much better, boxing out and spacing was there, at other times their guys ran right past ours for boards. We out rebounded them in total rebounds, but that is a bit deceiving due to our shooting percentage. With us shooting such a high percentage, they didn't have as many defensive rebounding opportunities, making our +8 in the rebounding battle not feel quite as good. Add to that their 18 offensive rebounds and our pattern of poor rebounding continued. That isn't surprising as that will be an issue for this team all season long, but to see the stretches where they were more sound on the glass was encouraging. Due to our ability to turn teams over, we don't have to out rebound teams on a consistent basis, just hang in there and keep it close on the boards should be good enough. Purifoy is really coming into his own, and he is being noticed by a lot of writers and media out there, but with all the threes going in last night, it was easy to miss a quietly beautiful game from Heron. His stat line: 17 points (5-8 from the field, 1-2 from three, and 6-7 from the charity stripe), 7 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 blocks, and 2 steals. This is an indication of the talent that is on this team, when that stat line is not our leader in any category. I'll say it again, that was fun. While this game didn't really boost our RPI, it does keep the tourney hope alive (a loss would have pretty much killed it). We will see if there are any developments with Brown and Spencer (and possibly Wiley) before our next game Sunday at home vs Mercer. That will be the first of 3 games in 6 days. No matter your feelings about player disciple, it would help to be at full strength for that stretch of games. On to the next one. War Eagle.

Just announced that Lang will start, not Dunnans.

Lang and McLemore will likely be the first off the bench. Where he goes from there will be interesting. I would expect it to depend on the circumstances in the game. The primary thing I worry about is if Smith gets into foul trouble. We have 5 scholarship post players, with Murry having to sit out due to transfer rules, without Spencer, that only leaves Smith, McLemore, and Purifoy. Without any foul trouble they should be able to allow McLemore and Smith to play additional minutes to cover for Spencer. If we get into any foul trouble at the post, any other post players we bring in will be walkons, Waddel has the most experience and Huff the most size.

I'm no expert on athletics administration, but I think CBP and the department have done a good job energizing the locals. To make the fans from Montgomery, Birmingham and Atlanta come it, improving the product on the floor is the most appealing thing in my opinion. At least that is what lures me from Birmingham. I have been to twice as many games in CBP's ear than during the Lebo or Barbee era based on that. The new arena certainly helps as it is a wonderful atmosphere to attend a game in.

Simply put, YES. However, I've been to a few home games this year and the crowds have been pretty good.

This has certainly been a drama filled week, illness, injury, a last second tip in loss in MSG and off court problems with suspensions has our Auburn team in a state of uncertainty. Oh and we have a game to play today, did I mention that yet? Former AU coach Cliff Ellis's team has to be itching to take their best shot at whatever combination of Tigers steps on the court tonight. Coastal comes in at 5-6 but winners in 3 of their last 4. Coastal is also an undersized team, with the biggest player in their normal rotation only standing 6'8", however they are heavier in the post than AU with their primary center coming in at 240lbs. They don't defend particularly well, nor do they score many points, but they do rebound effectively, which we have seen is not the strength of this AU team (to put it nicely). Auburn comes in at 6-2, but is coming off of a disappointing loss to BC. How do the emotions of that loss carry over? To further complicate matters, Brown and Spencer will sit this one out due to being arrested for misdemeanor possession of marijuana. This space is intended to provide some insights on the upcoming game, so I will only discuss this incident as it relates to the changes in the playing rotation it will cause. On to the matchup: Much like the Boston College game, the outcome of this game will be mainly about how Auburn plays defense and rebounds the ball. Coastal has a slight rebounding edge statistically, but you will be hard pressed to find an advantage for them in any other aspect of the game. They shoot below average from two, shoot a respectable 36% from three, and a poor 64% from the charity stripe. Their two leading scorers are both guards, and their most active player on the glass is a 6-8 forward. One interesting note, they only have two players who have started every game. They play a nine man rotation, but have two guards averaging nearly 30 minutes a game. This is one area where Brown will be missed, as he is one of our better on ball defenders. So what to expect from Auburn? With the loss of Brown and Spencer, I would expect Dunans to get the start at the 3, moving Heron to the 2 spot, primarily due to the play making and rebounding he brings. Smith will likely get the start at the 5 and we may see McLemore play some five this game out of necessity. Honestly, other than McLemore, Smith, and Purifoy, I don't think we know much about what we have coming off the bench at the 5, other than the effort we can count on out of Devin Wadell. No matter where it comes from we have to fill Spencer's 20+ minutes a game. As for the guard spot vacated by Brown, we have some options. New Williams is a prime candidate to get minutes, (It was just announced prior to tip off that Williams will be transferring) along with extended minutes from T.J. Lang if he is healthy enough to go. If Lang is not (and with Williams out), then we may (will) have to get creative, either playing a player we know little about or possibly shifting Johnson or Harper to the two and letting Keim get some minutes at the point. Let's just hope Lang is good to go. Whatever the rotation ends up being, we will need serious effort on the defensive end. I would anticipate a lower scoring affair, and would think we would need to keep them in the 60's to get this W, unless we play above expectations on the offensive end. What you hope to see is a guy step up at a time like this. That can come in many ways, points, rebounding, defense, by not forcing any action and meshing with the other players getting into the rhythm of the game. I expect CBP to have a plan for his rotation, but to stay with the ones that seems to gel. This is a moment for us to see a leader emerge. Purifoy has been taking strides to become that guy, and we need someone to step up tonight to get this W. I can't emphasize enough how badly we need this win for so many reasons. Don't discount Cliff Ellis's ability in the X's and O's department and his ability to make this an ugly game that comes down to the wire. One thing to watch: we have a bunch of games in a short period of time coming up, if we play a small rotation tonight (7 guys in double figure minutes) I would expect Brown and Spencer to be back sooner rather than later, as we can't keep playing 7 guys for more than a game or two during this stretch without serious fatigue issues. Even with the mashup lineup we are favored by 11.5 tonight at home at 8:00pm on the SEC Network. War Eagle.

Too bad our boys didn't show up with that edge last night.

AU 71 - BC 72 Box Score for BC and Box Score for AU Well, we got to play a game in MSG. It was all down hill form there. The only good thing? It didn't happen at home. Let's get right to the point, no spin, this was a bad loss. And it will remain in the bad loss column all season, as there is virtually no hope that BC plays well in ACC conference play. This will not be one we look back on and say, 'it wasn't as bad as it seemed at the time.' From my Preview: "I keep looking for some strategy breakdown where Boston College out plays us, but I just don't see it. Their isn't much Boston College can do other than hope Auburn doesn't show up to play. Which, with a group of freshman leading the way, is always something to consider. We haven't really had much of a let down game to this point, the second half vs Purdue wasn't pretty, but not really a let down. That is my only concern for this game, how do we show up at tip off." I'm not sure if it was the layoff, finals week, the big stage, ridding too high off the UAB win, or what, but we didn't come to win. This game can be summarized in Boston College's first and last possession, both included an offensive rebound and put back. Stagnant ball movement, poor defense, and AWFUL rebounding don't produce wins. The fact that we played that poorly and still almost won the game, tells you that BC is simply not a good team. We were out rebounded by nearly 20 and only had 9 assists. There's plenty of blame to go around but for me it starts with Harper. I love this kid, he has a huge upside and carried us to the UAB win, but he was a liability tonight. He had the worst +/- on the team tonight at -11, and no stats that seem to contradict that number. The five points, 3 assists, and 0 turnovers aren't the issue, it is the 2-10 from the field and 1-6 from three that jump off the stat sheet. Combine that with the fact that Heron got two shots in the first half, TWO. Our point guard has to run the floor better or this will happen again. While Johnson's stat line isn't pretty either, he did a better job of initiating some offensive movement and his +/- reflects it at +11. The best explanation I have to offer is the loss of Dunans caused several personnel groups to play extended minutes together for the first time. Purifoy played 36 minutes, Brown played 28, and Heron played 29, all well above averages, and McLemore only played 4, well below average. Admittedly, that explanation is unsatisfying and not really convincing either. I believe the primary cause was simply youth. Heron's passiveness, Harper being eradic, the standing and watching at times, all signs of youth. It happened in the Purdue game; the question now is how often will it happen from here on out. Just as youth can cost you a game you should win, it can also be blind to pressure and allow you to get one you are expected to lose. That is where we find ourselves, to keep post season hopes and bubble talk alive, we have to go win one we are not expected to. This loss drops our RPI from 21 to 54, which is not devastating. Our next two games are at home and we can not afford a loss in either of those. Lets hope our young tigers learn from this loss and build some confidence in the next two at home. It is way too early to give up on this group. War Eagle.

One item I meant to mention in the OP. The court for this game is likely to have the college three point line as well as the NBA three point line. Often times you will see players spot up behind the NBA three, beyond their normal range. Part of it is wanted to prove something, and it can also be unintentional at times. Speaking from some experience, it is almost a pride thing, stepping inside the NBA line and up to the college line. So keep an eye on our shooters for this phenomenon.

It seems like forever since we have played a game. Auburn (6-1) visits the mecca of college basketball MSG to take on Boston College (4-5). While we have been off, Boston College has been busy, playing two games against two bad teams, and losing them both. This game looks good on the schedule in name only, Boston College is not a good team, end of story. They do very little well, and do a lot poorly. I'd like to say that is due to a difficult schedule, but it isn't (SOS of 326). While we have been idle, there have been many rumors swirling about Wiley joining the team at various times. I hope our current bigs have heard the chatter and play to prove something. The one area that Boston College is marginally better at than Auburn, is rebounding. We could use a big effort on the boards, as travel and foreign arenas don't make for great shooting percentages. That being said, I still believe Lang and Brown will break out of their slumps sooner rather than later. On to the matchup, this one isn't difficult to break down. They have one very good player. Robinson #1, is a 6'5'' forward who is averaging nearly 20 a game, largely due to volume shooting as he only shoots 42% from the floor. No other player averages double digits, and watching them play, I didn't see another quality player on their roster. A couple of their guys are capable of making a play here or there, but none are anything to be concerned about. Which brings us to gameplan. Do you devote a ton of attention to their primary scorer to try and prevent him from going off, or do you guard him with one man, and be sure to limit the rest of the team. I'm more in the camp of one man can't beat you, even if he gets 20-25 points, as they will need another 50+ to win. When we are in offense we should be able to get good looks, as we will have some favorable matchups. They are small at the guard position and slow at the post, and other than #1 and #11, both small forwards, they don't boat much athleticism. I keep looking for some strategy breakdown where Boston College out plays us, but I just don't see it. Their isn't much Boston College can do other than hope Auburn doesn't show up to play. Which, with a group of freshman leading the way, is always something to consider. We haven't really had much of a let down game to this point, the second half vs Purdue wasn't pretty, but not really a let down. That is my only concern for this game, how do we show up at tip off. I believe Vegas has us favored by 8 or so, and it could easily be 14. I think we score into the 80s and get it done. They haven't played any team with an RPI above 83, and their best win is over a RPI 191 Towson team. I think we get it done with a good defensive effort. If our shooters get it going, it could get ugly. Go get em boys. 5:30 on FS1.

Not to get too far off topic, but Lang plays more of the 2 spot, on the court with Dunans (3) and Johnson (1).

Purifoy is actually playing too many minutes as it is. He won't get more minutes with the addition of Wiley, he might actually get less.

Our semester ends the 10th, his prep schools ends the 16th, and spring classes Jan 11th. So sometime after the ends and before the beginning.

Now for a few bad things I noticed, defensive lapses. These are NOT due to fatigue or any players quitting. This is pure, plain, and simple defensive lapses. So as I described in the OP, we were fronting the post a lot in this game. Here we are fronting with Spencer, and Dunans is helping underneath. On this play they make the entry pass, the UAB player shoves Spencer in the back but is not called for the foul. Dunans rotates down to help and swarms the ball. The UAB wing player cuts to the basket and Johnson shifts down to help on that cut, leaving his man (by design). This leaves Purifoy at the top to be ready to guard the kick out pass if it comes. Instead he and Lang are ball watching (standing straight up watching the ball), a cardinal sin on defense. On this possession, the UAB post player takes a highly contested floater/jump shot and misses with Spencer collecting the rebound, but the positioning by Purifoy and Lang is a lapse.