AUAlumnTN

Sure, and my referencing historical precedent wasn't meant to imply that HF shouldn't be struggling right now. 18 coaches have made it to the SEC title game since 2000. The average record for their first full year on the job is 8-4. Most of them make the big leap in year 2. However, only 2 of those 18 produced losing records in year 1: Pinkel and Tubs. HF has his work cut out for him turning the roster around. My concern is that by focusing all of his efforts on recruiting and seemingly punting on producing a winning product this year that he's going to dig himself too big of a hole to climb out of.

I am of two minds on this. On the one hand, the program and the roster were in a pretty sorry state when HF took over and it is going to take some time and patience to rebuild them. HF seems to be focusing the majority of his energy on recruiting, seemingly at the expense of the on-field product this year. I don't think that's necessarily the worst idea in the world as long as it work out. On the other hand, there is overwhelming historical evidence that suggests that if a coach is going to make a splash in the SEC, they're going to do it pretty quickly. Since 2000, only five coaches have made an SEC title game without winning at least 10 games in their second full year on the job. One of those was the South Carolina version of Steve Spurrier and the most recent one to do it was Gary Pinkel in 2014. Only two of those five actually won an SEC title at that school: Phil Fulmer and Tubs. All of this to say that if Freeze is trying to play the long game here, it very well could blow up in his face.

The read I get is that HF has essentially outsourced the lion’s share of gameday preparation, game-planning, and coaching to his coordinators and is focusing 80-90% of his energy on recruiting. I don’t think that’s the worst idea given the state of the roster but A. The offense in particular’s performance all but guarantees he’s looking for a new OC and maybe a position coach or two this offseason, B. puts enormous pressure on this incoming recruiting class to be very very good, very very fast, and C. depending on how the rest of this season shakes out, potentially gives him precious little goodwill amongst the fanbase and power brokers. It’s a bold strategy, Cotton. Let’s see if it pays off.

Several: inconsistent o-line play, the absence of a dependable go-to receiver, schematic inconsistency, but I think most importantly, a lack of trust in the QBs (all of them). I don’t think HF or PM trust any of their QBs at the moment and that lack of trust shows. I think RA and PT are both playing “not to mess up” because they think they’ll get yanked the second they do (not an unreasonable thought).

I think this is an oversimplification to put it mildly and I don’t think Auburn itself is the problem. The coaches Auburn chooses to hire on the other hand? Gus Malzahn is many things but a proven developer of QBs he is not. It’s been well established at this point that as his o-line/running game goes, so goes the rest of the offense/his QB. The only time he’s ever produced QBs with high octane stats were his two years at Tulsa and when had some guy named Cam Newton running the offense. His non-Cam, non-Nick Marshall QBs’ fortunes were entirely tied to the quality of their o-lines and the strength of the running game. The less said about Bryan Harsin’s time on the plains and his so-called “offense” the better. He and his staff, particularly the 2022 incarnation were so top to bottom incompetent that they probably set this program back five years. That said, Hugh Freeze and Philip Montgomery have a pretty solid track record of fielding good offenses. As painful as the Auburn offense has been to watch this year, I’m not doom and glooming this yet. They have a MASSIVE mess to clean up and it’s going to take awhile. In the meantime, it’s probably going to be pretty ugly to watch.

IF (and this is a big if) Holden’s the starter going forward, PM and HF must make more of an effort to settle him into games through scheme than they’ve shown with PT. I would say that’s been one of PT’s biggest issues is that the playcalling has not helped him out very much. There has been a conspicuous absence of 1st down throws, screens, rollouts, etc. in the early part of games, plays that would allow whoever is playing QB to settle into the game. No matter who the starter is, the offensive structure needs to change to help them out.

Yesterday I thought they acquitted themselves well run-blocking. Take away the sacks and Auburn rolled up almost 200 yards rushing and Battie and Hunter were both averaging in the 6-ish ypc range. That said, pass pro I have no clue. On the one hand PT did get hit/sacked quite a bit yesterday but on the other hand I watched an aTm db walk up to the line of scrimmage yesterday all but wearing a sign that said “I am blitzing” and PT didn’t so much as look at him

2 Things: 1. Kenneth Walker III was the straw that stirred the drink on that offense. PT’s production dropped off DRAMATICALLY when he left. Also, the book on PT coming out of MSU is that he was fine when the running game clicked and everything stayed on schedule but struggled when he had to carry the offense, particularly on the road. Sound familiar? 2. The QB’s play can in fact make an offensive line look worse than it is. For instance, taking too deep a drop and giving your tackles unfavorable protection angles, failing to identify blitzers and adjust protection/check out of plays accordingly, running yourself out of decent pockets, or holding on to the ball too long due to indecision. PT was guilty of almost all of those yesterday. I’m not saying Auburn’s o-line is going to contend for the Joe Moore award this season but I don’t think they’ve been as bad as some have claimed.

Same, honestly. I’ve said for years that B- QB play would’ve turned several Auburn teams into contenders and it just hasn’t happened.

Honestly, I thought the line played okay to good enough. Take away the sacks and Auburn rolled up almost 200 yards rushing. I think the issue today really was the QB play. Not only did Payton Thorne miss open receivers, badly, but he also failed to ID obvious pressure off the edge and adjust/check to account for it. He was indecisive and his failure to pull the trigger caused him to either take sacks or run himself into no gains. An indecisive QB who runs himself out of good pockets and fails to notice obvious blitzers is going to make any o-line look bad.

We don’t have a QB and we don’t have a real difference maker at WR. I didn’t think it would be this bad but I’m not super surprised that we’re here. Robby is who he is at this point. This is his fourth year at the collegiate level. Barring some sort of miracle, he is not going to undergo a Hendon Hooker-esque transformation into a competent passer and his best contribution at this point is either as a Taysom Hill-style gadget player or as the centerpiece of whatever HF’s version of the Nick Marshall/service academy run, run, and run some more offense is. The book on PT while he was a MSU is that he was a competent enough QB if the running game clicked and everything stayed on schedule but he fell apart when it didn’t. I think that’s a fair assessment of him now except now he doesn’t have a Keon Coleman or similar type of guy to bail him out. i think Hugh has one of two choices. Roll with Robby, lean on the run game and try to turn the remaining eight games into semi-winnable rock fights or start Holden, let him take his lumps and figure out who and what you have at QB and receiver going forward

Also shows that this roster is much, MUCH better than its record.

Sure, why not: Chris Klieman - small school, Midwest guy for most of his career. Can he adjust to life in the SEC at this stage of his career? Also, is it worth it for Auburn to take another chance on another non-SEC guy? Lance Leipold - see above. Another extremely successful small school, Midwest guy with no SEC experience. Sonny Dykes - didn't exactly set the world on fire at Cal and in particular couldn't get it done against their rivals. A big reason for that was Dykes continually swinging and missing on his defensive coordinator hires. His success at SMU and TCU suggests he might have learned from his mistakes at Cal but it is worth noting. That said, these are my "names no one's mentioning" picks. Do I think any of them are serious candidates for the Auburn job? No. Would any of them be at the top of my wishlist? Also no. Do I think they might make excellent hires for another school now or down the road? Sure, probably not in the SEC but who knows.

Even if we could get him, I think there are rational reasons to pump the brakes on Dabo. He's been less than enthusiastic about NIL. He's seemingly outright refused to make use of the transfer portal. Auburn's current roster situation makes both of those positions non-starters for the next hire. He's a fantastic recruiter and program builder, yes but his background means he's also much more dependent on his coordinators for the Xs and Os stuff. When he had Brent Venables and Tony Elliott, no problem. His choices to replace those two this past offseason however invite quite a bit of scrutiny. Given the contract it would take to pry him away from Clemson, these are not small concerns.

Kirby Smart is 46 years old and has been at Georgia for six years. He is 4th in total games won in school history, first in winning percentage, already has an SEC title and NC on his resume, and appears on track to add another SEC title and possibly NC this year. He's arguably on pace to be the greatest coach in school history and you're telling me that this man, who still ranks 4th on Georgia's all-time interception list, is going to leave his alma mater to follow Nick Saban because.....why exactly?