Apples and Oranges?

[aubfan36078 0]

Not sure why I put myself through it , But I took it upon myself to go read a couple of FSU message boards. Seems to me that the over whelming feeling of each one is that Auburn is just over matched in the BCS Title game. The FSU posters keep throwing out the Defensive rankings of FSU and Auburn. So I starting asking who has FSU really played? What high powered offense has the noles shut down? Here is what I have found. This is the FSU schedule and that teams offensive ranking .

Pittsburg 102

Nevada 50

Bethune Cookman N/A

Boston College 90

Maryland 77

Clemson 15

NC State 71

Miami 42

Wake Forest 118

Syracuse 86

Idaho 92

Florida 113

Duke 69

So the best Offense that FSU has " shut down" was a 15th ranked Clemson who still had over 300 total yards even after 4 turnovers? The next best offense was Miami and they was only ranked 42nd. So just looking at these numbers I have to ask , Is this really something to brag about? The other side of the FSU fans arguement is the poor Defense that Auburn plays. So lets look at a few of the Offenses that Auburn has played and their rankings.

Texas A&M 9

Missouri 10

Georgia 20

Ole Miss 24

LSU 28

Alabama 38

Mississippi State 52

Washington State 54

If FSU would have played the same teams that Auburn played , would their Defensive numbers still be so impressive? The best rushing offense that FSU has faced all year was Nevada and they rank as the 15th best rushing offense in the country. The next best rushing team they have faced all season was NC State and they ranked 23rd. Boston College with a great running back ( average overall running game ranking 53rd in the country ) was able to hang 34 points on the FSU defense. Auburn has the #4 rushing offense in the nation. I am not saying that Auburn will run over FSU. I am saying that Auburn is no where near over matched as what the FSU fans and media has been saying. They are comparing Apples and Oranges.

[aubfan36078 0]

Also factor in that Auburn played against 4 of the best QBs in the nation ( 2 Heisman finalists and 2 that were mentioned as contenders all season) , while FSU can claim they played 1 at best in Boyd.

[Tigermike 3,078]

I've been thinking of the NC game between Florida & Nebraska. UF came into the game with a lot of hype & a high scoring offense. Nebraska came in with a pretty good running game. Nebraska beat UF like a red headrd step child. This AU team has played some pretty good teams & played for 4 quarters. I expect a hard game & I expect Auburn to win. WAR EAGLE!!!!!

[C'viewTiger 242]

I would go one step further, if Clemson's O is rated #15, what type of Defenses have they faced other than USCe and FSU and how would that affect their ratings if they faced the Defenses that AU has played? Just another angle.

[leglessdan 1,934]

I would go one step further, if Clemson's O is rated #15, what type of Defenses have they faced other than USCe and FSU and how would that affect their ratings if they faced the Defenses that AU has played? Just another angle.

You can work it from any angle you want. The reality of it all is FSU stats are worthless based on their competitors. The media can sugarcoat this game and FSU all they want. It won't matter come game time. I fully expect our Offense to chew them up and grind them down until they can't breathe. Their Offense may score some points but once our running game gets rolling their defense will be garbage and be on their heels. That's when I feel Gus will start bombing. We've played from behind aa lot this season. .they haven't. I don't predict scores. ..it's bad juju to me but if we do the above, it will be over by the end of the 3rd qtr.

[ALTiger 16]

I would go one step further, if Clemson's O is rated #15, what type of Defenses have they faced other than USCe and FSU and how would that affect their ratings if they faced the Defenses that AU has played? Just another angle.

Good point! I believe people tend to look too much into stats and not much more into the competition they played. For instance FSU has teh #3 ranked rush defense....WHO HAVE THEY PLAYED THAT WAS A STELLAR RUNNING TEAM? B.C. was it and A. Williams had 149 yds rushing on them!

[texasautiger 0]

I would go one step further, if Clemson's O is rated #15, what type of Defenses have they faced other than USCe and FSU and how would that affect their ratings if they faced the Defenses that AU has played? Just another angle.

There are more advanced rankings, like these, that take all that stuff into consideration. Using those, AU is ranked 13th in the FEI rank (compared to FSU's 5th), and 32nd in the S&P (compared to FSU at #1). The latter isn't great, but it's way better than the 90th we're ranked in the traditional "total defense" ranking which looks at just ypg.

Regardless, I think AU has pretty much lived by the Han Solo motto all year: "Never tell me the odds!". I mean, on paper we were supposed to be destroyed by TAMU, Bama, and Mizz, so FSU fans will just have to excuse us for not capitulating to their mighty stats!

[homersapien 11,513]

I have visited a few of their boards and the common theme is extreme confidence. Like you said, they feel they are just way better than us both offensively and defensively and the only question is their margin of victory.

We can only hope the FSU team feels the same way, but I kind of doubt it considering their coach has ties to AU.

[aubfan36078 0]

I would go one step further, if Clemson's O is rated #15, what type of Defenses have they faced other than USCe and FSU and how would that affect their ratings if they faced the Defenses that AU has played? Just another angle.

Good point! I believe people tend to look too much into stats and not much more into the competition they played. For instance FSU has teh #3 ranked rush defense....WHO HAVE THEY PLAYED THAT WAS A STELLAR RUNNING TEAM? B.C. was it and A. Williams had 149 yds rushing on them!

I posted in my original post that BC is just an average rushing team. As a team BC ranks 53rd in the nation in rushing offense. They had 1 true rushing threat where Auburn can have 3-4 true rushing threats on the field on a single play. I really like our chances.

[FormerlySec38Row34 56]

As many have said before, if stats won games they wouldn't have to play them. You could work them out on X-Box and Play Station. Stats never take heart, belief in ones self and desire into consideration. This team has tons of all three.

WAR EAGLE!!!

[aubfan36078 0]

Hypothetical Question : If Auburn and FSU switched schedules , what would the stats/results look like? Would FSU still be undefeated and would there be a rushing record left to break for Auburn?

[IronMan70 3,277]

Not sure why I put myself through it , But I took it upon myself to go read a couple of FSU message boards. Seems to me that the over whelming feeling of each one is that Auburn is just over matched in the BCS Title game. The FSU posters keep throwing out the Defensive rankings of FSU and Auburn. So I starting asking who has FSU really played? What high powered offense has the noles shut down? Here is what I have found. This is the FSU schedule and that teams offensive ranking .................................

................................. If FSU would have played the same teams that Auburn played , would their Defensive numbers still be so impressive? The best rushing offense that FSU has faced all year was Nevada and they rank as the 15th best rushing offense in the country. The next best rushing team they have faced all season was NC State and they ranked 23rd. Boston College with a great running back ( average overall running game ranking 53rd in the country ) was able to hang 34 points on the FSU defense. Auburn has the #4 rushing offense in the nation. I am not saying that Auburn will run over FSU. I am saying that Auburn is no where near over matched as what the FSU fans and media has been saying. They are comparing Apples and Oranges.

Good post and analysis. I had done an offensive rush ranking of FSU's opponents right after the SECCG and I think the numbers on that part of your post may be off.

FSU opponents- rushing offense ranking

#112- Pitt, 114.9 ypg

#054- Nevada, 179 ypg

# NA- Bethune-Cookman

#020- Boston College, 218.1 ypg

#087- Maryland, 144.6 ypg

#062- Clemson, 172.7 ypg

#070- NC State,162.7 ypg

#063- Miami, 172,5 ypg

#115- Wake Forest, 94.1 ypg

#039-Syracuse, 193.8 ypg

#092- Idaho, 138.9 ypg

#086- Florida, 145.8 ypg

#060- Duke, 173.7 ypg

#072- average of all FSU opponents

#001- Auburn, 335.7 ypg

FSU is about to face the best OL and blocking FB they have faced, one that has produced the #1 rushing offense in the nation. They will say, " Yah but, the reason their opponents rank so low in rushing offense is because they got so far ahead their opponents had to pass and besides, FSU played 2nd stringers most of the 2nd half ".

I say, nobody has stopped our rushing offense, including some of the topped ranked rushing defenses in the nation in Bama and Mizzou.

rushing offense team rankings- http://content.usato...rushing-offense

[aubfan36078 0]

Not sure why I put myself through it , But I took it upon myself to go read a couple of FSU message boards. Seems to me that the over whelming feeling of each one is that Auburn is just over matched in the BCS Title game. The FSU posters keep throwing out the Defensive rankings of FSU and Auburn. So I starting asking who has FSU really played? What high powered offense has the noles shut down? Here is what I have found. This is the FSU schedule and that teams offensive ranking .................................

................................. If FSU would have played the same teams that Auburn played , would their Defensive numbers still be so impressive? The best rushing offense that FSU has faced all year was Nevada and they rank as the 15th best rushing offense in the country. The next best rushing team they have faced all season was NC State and they ranked 23rd. Boston College with a great running back ( average overall running game ranking 53rd in the country ) was able to hang 34 points on the FSU defense. Auburn has the #4 rushing offense in the nation. I am not saying that Auburn will run over FSU. I am saying that Auburn is no where near over matched as what the FSU fans and media has been saying. They are comparing Apples and Oranges.

Good post and analysis. I had done an offensive rush ranking of FSU's opponents right after the SECCG and I think the numbers on that part of your post may be off.

FSU opponents- rushing offense ranking

#112- Pitt, 114.9 ypg

#054- Nevada, 179 ypg

# NA- Bethune-Cookman

#020- Boston College, 218.1 ypg

#087- Maryland, 144.6 ypg

#062- Clemson, 172.7 ypg

#070- NC State,162.7 ypg

#063- Miami, 172,5 ypg

#115- Wake Forest, 94.1 ypg

#039-Syracuse, 193.8 ypg

#092- Idaho, 138.9 ypg

#086- Florida, 145.8 ypg

#060- Duke, 173.7 ypg

#072- average of all FSU opponents

#001- Auburn, 335.7 ypg

They are about to face the best OL and blocking FB they have faced and the one that has produced the #1 rushing offense in the nation. They will say, yah but the reason their opponents rank so low in rushing offense is because they got so far ahead they had to pass. Plus, FSU played 2nd stringers most of the 2nd half. I say, nobody has stopped our rushing offense.

rushing offense team rankings- http://content.usato...rushing-offense

I just checked and you are right. The one websiteI used had different numbers. Not sure what is going on there but My point remains the same. The level of competition the 2 schools played are on 2 different levels. I just do not see how anyone can look at the stats and say that FSU has a clear advantage based on these stats because of the difference in competition????

[IronMan70 3,277]

Not sure why I put myself through it , But I took it upon myself to go read a couple of FSU message boards. Seems to me that the over whelming feeling of each one is that Auburn is just over matched in the BCS Title game. The FSU posters keep throwing out the Defensive rankings of FSU and Auburn. So I starting asking who has FSU really played? What high powered offense has the noles shut down? Here is what I have found. This is the FSU schedule and that teams offensive ranking .................................

................................. If FSU would have played the same teams that Auburn played , would their Defensive numbers still be so impressive? The best rushing offense that FSU has faced all year was Nevada and they rank as the 15th best rushing offense in the country. The next best rushing team they have faced all season was NC State and they ranked 23rd. Boston College with a great running back ( average overall running game ranking 53rd in the country ) was able to hang 34 points on the FSU defense. Auburn has the #4 rushing offense in the nation. I am not saying that Auburn will run over FSU. I am saying that Auburn is no where near over matched as what the FSU fans and media has been saying. They are comparing Apples and Oranges.

Good post and analysis. I had done an offensive rush ranking of FSU's opponents right after the SECCG and I think the numbers on that part of your post may be off.

FSU opponents- rushing offense ranking

#112- Pitt, 114.9 ypg

#054- Nevada, 179 ypg

# NA- Bethune-Cookman

#020- Boston College, 218.1 ypg

#087- Maryland, 144.6 ypg

#062- Clemson, 172.7 ypg

#070- NC State,162.7 ypg

#063- Miami, 172,5 ypg

#115- Wake Forest, 94.1 ypg

#039-Syracuse, 193.8 ypg

#092- Idaho, 138.9 ypg

#086- Florida, 145.8 ypg

#060- Duke, 173.7 ypg

#072- average of all FSU opponents

#001- Auburn, 335.7 ypg

They are about to face the best OL and blocking FB they have faced and the one that has produced the #1 rushing offense in the nation. They will say, yah but the reason their opponents rank so low in rushing offense is because they got so far ahead they had to pass. Plus, FSU played 2nd stringers most of the 2nd half. I say, nobody has stopped our rushing offense.

rushing offense team rankings- http://content.usato...rushing-offense

I just checked and you are right. The one websiteI used had different numbers. Not sure what is going on there but My point remains the same. The level of competition the 2 schools played are on 2 different levels. I just do not see how anyone can look at the stats and say that FSU has a clear advantage based on these stats because of the difference in competition????

Yes, you are right on point.

[NoALtiger 3,873]

You'd have to be a fool to think FSU is gonna stop our O, especially if you are basing that strictly of stats. They can't shut us down if thats what their fans think.

[C'viewTiger 242]

Not sure why I put myself through it , But I took it upon myself to go read a couple of FSU message boards. Seems to me that the over whelming feeling of each one is that Auburn is just over matched in the BCS Title game. The FSU posters keep throwing out the Defensive rankings of FSU and Auburn. So I starting asking who has FSU really played? What high powered offense has the noles shut down? Here is what I have found. This is the FSU schedule and that teams offensive ranking .................................

................................. If FSU would have played the same teams that Auburn played , would their Defensive numbers still be so impressive? The best rushing offense that FSU has faced all year was Nevada and they rank as the 15th best rushing offense in the country. The next best rushing team they have faced all season was NC State and they ranked 23rd. Boston College with a great running back ( average overall running game ranking 53rd in the country ) was able to hang 34 points on the FSU defense. Auburn has the #4 rushing offense in the nation. I am not saying that Auburn will run over FSU. I am saying that Auburn is no where near over matched as what the FSU fans and media has been saying. They are comparing Apples and Oranges.

FSU is about to face the best OL and blocking FB they have faced and one that has produced the #1 rushing offense in the nation. They will say, " Yah but, the reason their opponents rank so low in rushing offense is because they got so far ahead theeir opponents had to pass and besides, FSU played 2nd stringers most of the 2nd half ". I say, nobody has stopped our rushing offense, including some of the topped ranked rushing defenses in the nation in Bama and Mizzou.

rushing offense team rankings- http://content.usato...rushing-offense

I think playing their 2d stringers the 2d half will come back to bite them this game. It may pay off in experience for next year but their conditioning and endurance to finish will be diminished. We are conditioned to play a full 60 min (ask bama) and will ware them out by the end of 3.

[tallgraycat 33]

I agree with all the previous comments. Two points that have not been discussed, we have improved tremendously from our first game especially in my opinion the last 3 games. Second point we will have three weeks to prepare, I bet they are working on passing, both during practice and on an individual bases. With no classes NM and receivers can work on timing etc. My guess we will see new plays and other improvements in our offense team.

[minister of music 0]

One of the biggest things i think you cannot put a stat on..is where this team has come from......... The bottom. Florida state does not know and can not appreciate what this team has been through and has accomplished. Strength comes from adversity, and character arises from such . This team is stronger in belief.in itself and it's coaches..in it's being..in it's destiny.

[TheBlueVue 177]

While I am reluctant to get too excited by statistical analysis, what has been pointed out in this thread simply cannot be ignored. I am liking Auburn more and more in this game. Being battle tested is not an over rated stat and this Auburn team has been through a gauntlet that will be to their advantage in this game. That alone will not win the game but it will be very interesting to see if FSU can respond to getting punched in the face early and often the way Auburn has ALL SEASON!

[homersapien 11,513]

One of the biggest things i think you cannot put a stat on..is where this team has come from......... The bottom. Florida state does not know and can not appreciate what this team has been through and has accomplished. Strength comes from adversity, and character arises from such . This team is stronger in belief.in itself and it's coaches..in it's being..in it's destiny.

Well stated.

They may have played the same number of games, but experience - at least the sort of experience that really matters - is on our side.

[CJBas 4]

Again something no one seems to be considering; Auburn's rankings (everyone's rankings) are taking by averaging whaat the team did throughout the entire season. That means Auburn's performances against Wash St, Ark St, etc is being given as much weight as their performance against bama, MO. Does anyone who has seen this Auburn team play really think this is the same team now as it was back in August? I don't. To figure their performance in August and Sept as equal to what they're doing now gives an erroneous impression.

In fact, simply judging by what's been going on over the entire season, it is reasonable to expect Auburn to be considerably better when they play FSU than they were when they played MO. They've been getting better with each game, and for teh last 5 haves have been getting beter exponentially each game. If that continues through the title game - and there's reason to believe it wil 0 then Auburn should be very good indeed by 6 Jan. To calculate their performances early in the season when deriving ane xpectation fo their performance now would give a false reading.

[BirdofPrey76 0]

All of you horse racing enthusiasts out there will know what I mean--Auburn has more bottom than FSU. At the end of the game, the Seminoles will be choking on the Tigers' dust.

[AcUmen 242]

Auburn has the #4 rushing offense in the nation.

Huh? #4? Pretty sure AU is #1 in America in rushing offense.

[macauburn 6]

One of the biggest things i think you cannot put a stat on..is where this team has come from......... The bottom. Florida state does not know and can not appreciate what this team has been through and has accomplished. Strength comes from adversity, and character arises from such . This team is stronger in belief.in itself and it's coaches..in it's being..in it's destiny.

This^^

[AcUmen 242]

Here's some more stats for you:

FSU has played 6 FBS teams who went .500 or better on the season: Boston College, Miami, Clemson, Duke, Maryland, Syracuse.

What I am interested in is how well those teams did against other FBS teams with winning records. Let's list those records now:

Boston College played 5 FBS teams with winning records. They went 2-3 in those games.

Miami played 4 FBS teams with winning records. They went 1-3 in those games.

Clemson played 6 FBS teams with winning records. They went 4-2 in those games.

Duke played 5 FBS teams with winning records. They went 3-2 in those games.

Maryland played 4 FBS teams with winning records. They went 1-3 in those games.

Syracuse played 7 FBS teams with winning records. They went 3-4 in those games.

*****Interesting note about Syracuse -- They lost to Penn St. and Northwestern which are both in the Big-10. Northwestern went 0-7 vs. FBS teams with winning records****

The combined record of those 6 opponents vs FBS teams with winning records is: 14-17 or .451 winning percentage. Only 2 of FSU's opponents had winning records vs. other teams who had winning records -- Clemson and Duke.

Out of those 6 teams, only 3 have winning records in ACC play (Clemson, Miami, Duke). Boston College and Syracuse are both .500 in conference play. Maryland, while having a winning record, was only 3-5 in the ACC. Thus, the teams we will compare are those who are .500 or better in conference play. That leaves us with 5 teams: BC, Clemson, Miami, Duke, Syracuse.

Let's look at each of these 5 teams and see how good they are at rushing and how good FSU was at stopping them.

Boston College for the season averaged 5.47 ypc

Against FBS teams with a winning record, BC averaged 4.40 ypc

Against FSU, they averaged 4.44 ypc

Boston College ran for 1% more ypc against FSU than they did against other winning teams.

Result: FSU loses this battle.

***Interesting note about Boston College. They ran for 45/200 and 4.44 ypc vs. FSU. Against FCS Villanova they only ran for 40/128 for 3.20 ypc. Against Clemson, they ran 39/94 which is 2.41 ypc ****

Clemson for the season averaged 4.10 ypc

Clemson against FBS teams with a winning record averaged 4.15 ypc

Against FSU, Clemson averaged 3.00 ypc

FSU held them to 28% below their average against other winning teams

Result: FSU wins this battle

Miami for the season averaged 5.07 ypc

Miami against FBS teams with a winning record averaged 4.64 ypc.

Against, FSU, they averaged 2.86 ypc

FSU held them to 38% below their average against other winning teams.

Result: FSU won this battle

***Interesting note about Miami. Against Florida they ran for 28/50 or 1.79 ypc. Against Va Tech, Miami rushed for 24/28 or 1.17 ypc. Both Va Tech and Florida did better against Miami's rush than FSU did ******

Duke for the season averaged 4.45 ypc

Against FBS teams with a winning record, Duke averaged 4.47

Against FSU they averaged 3.19 ypc

FSU held them to 29% below their average against other winning teams.

Result: FSU wins this battle

Syracuse for the season averaged 4.59 ypc

Against FBS teams with winning records, they averaged 4.20 ypc

Against FSU they averaged 2.86 ypc

FSU held them to 32% below their average against other winning teams

Result: FSU wins this battle.

The average amount FSU held their .500 or better opponents below their average (when those teams faced .500 or better opponents) is 31.5%.

Result: Overall FSU did well at holding their opponents with winning records to below the rushing average those opponents achieved vs. other teams with winning records. But Boston College is an anomaly. An FCS team did better against BC's rush than FSU did. And Florida and Virginia Tech both did better against Miami's rush than FSU did.

Next time I will compile these same stats for Auburn. Too lazy to do it right now.