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The Rich Brooks Farewell Tour, Stop 8...

Commentary: #17 Auburn (6-2, 4-1) -22.5 @ Kentucky (2-5) (1-3)

12PM CST No TV, No PPV

David K. Ward

AUNation.net

11-4-05

BEFORE THE GAME: Rich Brooks is taking quotes on moving vans in the Lexington Area. Seriously, is there a more fired head coach in the NCAA than Brooks? Just for fun let’s look at Kentucky. They average 20 points a game and give up 30. On AVERAGE they lose by ten! The Mildcats are 2-5 on the season and only 1-3 in the SEC. Their sole SEC win was over MSU. Let’s hope Mississippi State was looking ahead to Alabama, otherwise I would have to question Sylvester Croom’s coaching ability. Auburn enters the game 6-2, bowl bound. The difference in these two schools? Kentucky is a basketball school with a football team. Auburn is a football school with a basketball team. Too bad for Kentucky this is a football game.

HISTORY: Auburn leads the series 23-5-1 and is 10-4 including six straight wins at Commonwealth Stadium. The Tigers have scored 41 or more the last three times these teams met. Auburn has not lost to Kentucky since 1966. Kentucky assistant coaches Kurt Roper (quarterbacks) and Rick Petri (Defensive line) both worked for Auburn Coach Tommy Tuberville his last season at Ole Miss in 1998.

KENTUCKY:

On Offense: The Cats Offense averages only 20.4 points a game. They rank 9th overall in total offense in the SEC. They rank seventh in Rushing 135 ypg, 11th in Passing with 155 ypg, Leading Rusher is Raphael Little who averages 93 ypg. He is improving every game for Kentucky and has been somewhat of an emerging problem for opponents this year. Little leads the SEC and ranks 12th in the Nation in All-Purpose Yards with 153 ypg. Still, the Mildcats rank 108th in the Nation in Total Offense. Kentucky is an abysmal -9 in turnover margin!!!

On Defense: Kentucky rates LAST PLACE in the SEC yielding 424 ypg. They allow 190 rushing and 233 ypg passing. This is the Cats Achilles heel in 2005.

Special Teams: When the Cats have the ball, they do wonderfully. They are near the tops in the Nation in kickoff returns and punt returns. Kentucky recently set a National record for KO return yards against Idaho State with 287. Kentucky is middle of the pack of the conference in kicking however.

AUBURN: Auburn still Ranks 1st in the SEC in Scoring O and #2 in Scoring D. Auburn also Ranks #1 in the SEC in Total Offense and #2 in Total Defense.

On Defense: Auburn is improving from week to week. Auburn held Ole Miss to only three points in the game last week. They shut out the Ole Miss Offense in the first half. The rush defense is sound and the pass defense is improving, even though they are already highly regarded.

On Offense: RB Brad Lester is still out. RB Carl Stewart is also injured. Kenny Irons has stepped up at Rb and is now the starter. He has a total of 820 yards and has only started four games. Irons is the second place rusher in the SEC. He averages 5.6 yards every time he gets the ball. The Offensive Line had a tough going against Ole Miss after dominating LSU and Arkansas. Coach Tommy Tuberville feels that Auburn is still an improving team.

SUMMATION: There are a few things to consider here. Auburn in Loaded. But the looming games with Georgia and Alabama are really within sight. Coach Tommy Tuberville actually tried to get this game moved to a Thursday night ESPN game. He wanted the extra time to prepare for Georgia.

WHAT TO LOOK FOR: This one should be for the second and third teamers. Look for Auburn to get ahead early and rest the first teamers. The WORST THING Auburn wants to see is a starter getting hurt. I bet we see Blake Field with more playing time than Brandon Cox. Tristan Davis was moved back to RB from his Db spot this week for more depth at RB. Tristan Davis and Tre Smith should see plenty of action. Defense will work on rushing attack. These teams are such a mismatch that it is hard to see Kentucky running the ball. However they are not a very strong passing club. Look to see a lot of Raphael Little, rushing and catching. He will be the featured weapon.

PREDICTION: Betting Line: Auburn -22.5 Don’t take the points and Auburn. This one should be an easy day at the office. But the real tests lie ahead in the next two weeks with Georgia and Alabama. Watch for very early second and third team play. Therefore, this could be a lower scoring affair than most would expect. Barring a total breakdown by the entire team, you should still mail this one in. Do not be surprised if Auburn hits the scoreboard for only 20-24 points. Nothing matters for Auburn at Lexington this week but coming home healthy.

[AUloggerhead 2,253]

Here's what Rich Brooks said about AU's defense: Link

They have some really good, experienced players and a very physical defensive front. A lot of the time, their defensive line plays on the other side of the line of scrimmage. It makes it very difficult to execute when their defensive tackles are pushing your guards or centers back into the backfield and creating a new line of scrimmage on your side of the ball. It makes it very difficult to run cut-back plays. Their secondary coverage is outstanding and very physical and they do a great job of pursuit. 

I like that line about a new LOS on your side of the ball.