Restrictive Base throws GOP off

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A Restive Base Throws the GOP Off Balance

Dismay, and hints at rebellion, in the party's conservative core don't bode well for November.

By Janet Hook, Times Staff Writer

May 22, 2006

WASHINGTON — Republican leaders, worried that their party's conservative base is demoralized, lean hard on one reed of hope these days: Election day is almost six months away, leaving lots of time to get voters mobilized.

But there already are signs that the surly mood of the party's core supporters is taking a toll around the country — in morale, in fundraising and in early election contests.

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In the Rocky Mountains, a registered Republican was so dissatisfied that he wrote a $26,700 check to the Democrats' Senate campaign committee.

In San Diego, Republicans worry that conservatives unhappy with the GOP candidate for a vacant House seat will stay home rather than vote in the June special election.

In Pennsylvania's primary last week, conservative Republicans unseated more than a dozen state legislators, in large part because critics believed the party establishment had abandoned GOP fiscal principles. "It's time for Republicans to start acting like Republicans," said John Eichelberger, a conservative who defeated the state Senate's GOP president.

That is a complaint increasingly heard across the country when conservatives outside Washington talk about the national GOP establishment.

"I voted for President Bush twice, but in my opinion we have no leadership in Washington from the president or the Congress," said Warren H. Ingram Jr., a Missouri libertarian.

Some Republicans are so discouraged by the direction of the country and the record of their party —including the growth of federal spending, turmoil in Iraq, and Bush's immigration policy — that they have begun wondering if Republicans might be better off losing control of Congress.

"Two years in the political wilderness would do us a lot of good," said one Republican member of Congress who asked not to be named because of his heretical view.

The conservative National Review magazine recently pictured an elephant's rear on the cover of an issue headlined "A View of Congress." An article inside lambasting the GOP concluded: "As bad polling piles up, nervous Republicans will ask themselves, Can this Congress be saved? But the question frustrated Republican voters are increasingly asking is, Is it worth saving?"

Such disillusionment is reflected in recent polls showing declining support for Bush and Congress, even among conservatives who have been the most loyal part of the GOP base.

An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll in April found that conservative Republicans' approval of Bush stood at 80% in April — still high, but a sizable 12-point drop from January. Conservatives' approval of Congress dropped to 29% in April, down from 41% in January.

Also worrisome for the GOP are signs that Democratic voters are approaching the midterm elections with more energy than Republicans: The poll found that, by 11 percentage points, Democrats are more likely to express high interest in the campaign.

GOP strategy now is aimed at energizing the party's base, with an agenda packed with conservative crowd-pleasers. After a long delay, Bush last week signed a $70-billion tax cut. The Senate soon will vote on constitutional amendments to ban same-sex marriage and flag burning. Republicans have renewed their push to confirm Bush's conservative judicial nominees.

There are risks in these efforts to appease conservatives: They may alienate swing voters — precisely the voters needed by moderate Republicans, who are the party's most vulnerable incumbents. "A Republican legislative agenda that plays only to the conservative base this year is a [Democratic] dream come true," said Sarah Chamberlain Resnick, executive director of the Republican Main Street Partnership, a group of moderate Republicans.

The spring offensive may not be enough to energize disillusioned conservatives. Many of them see it as a token gesture. The amendment to ban gay marriage, for example, is not expected to pass.

"We don't believe them anymore," said Joe Glover, president of the Family Policy Network, a Christian conservative group based in Washington. "Bush twice made a big deal out of marriage [in the 2000 and 2004 campaigns]. But once he gets in that big cushy office, you don't hear a peep out of him about marriage."

Despite such views and grim polls, Republican National Committee spokesman Brian Jones argues that GOP candidates will fare well when attention turns to the kinds of policies that Democrats would promote if they won control of Congress. That points to a key element of the Republican strategy to motivate conservatives: Remind them what political life would be like if Democrats took control.

"The party's most faithful supporters remain strong behind Republican candidates across the country," said Jones. "In the fall elections, the true distinction between the two parties will be evident."

Other Republicans are less sanguine. "You cannot ignore the fact that … the Republican base is not energized about this election," said Neil Newhouse, a GOP pollster with several House and Senate clients. "I don't think this election is going to be won based solely on whether we turn out sufficient numbers in our base, but it sure as heck could be lost if we fail on that measure."