StatTiger 3,188 Posted September 21, 2006 Share Posted September 21, 2006 Scoring margins doesn't look good for Arkansas at this point of the season. Arkansas is -4 on offense and +5 on defense, meaning they are scorinf 4 points less than what their opponent's have allowed and giving up 5 more points than what their opponent's normally score. On the other side, Alabama is +6 on offense and -8 on defense. Taking their seasonal scoring averages and factoring in the scoring margins, Alabama wins 29-10 or 30-8. I realize the USC game for Arkansas and the La. Monroe game for Alabama skews the numbers so I tossed both games out and come up with Alabama 16-12 or Alabama 24-6, with an average score of 20-9. The scoring margins become more accurate as the season progresses. Alabama has the better defense and Arkansas is playing a TF at QB. Arkansas has one edge of playing at home and there has been some talk of the Razorbacks going no-huddle against Alabama. If Alabama can run the ball, they win by 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
au.tiger.96 12 Posted September 21, 2006 Share Posted September 21, 2006 Can't you just use the median is this case? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bottomfeeder 244 Posted September 21, 2006 Share Posted September 21, 2006 Arky will beatdown Bama this Saturday. Arky - 24 Ice Cream U. - 3 Remember Brandon's first season as QB for Auburn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatTiger 3,188 Posted September 21, 2006 Author Share Posted September 21, 2006 Can't you just use the median is this case? Yes, but as I stated, the more games played, the more accurate the scoring margins become. That's why I dumped the USC game for Arkansas and the La. Monroe game for Bama. My gut tells me the game will be close, so a 16-12 Bama victory would be likely based on what I have seen of both teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vatz22au 142 Posted September 22, 2006 Share Posted September 22, 2006 I believe the Razorbacks are the most physical team that Bama has played this year. With close wins vs Hawaii and Vandy.... There is no doubt that its going to be a tight game. Arkansas has already experienced a high powered team (USC).... Who has Bama faced? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaGrad03 0 Posted September 22, 2006 Share Posted September 22, 2006 Arkansas has already experienced a high powered team (USC).... Who has Bama faced? Facing and competing are two totally different things. Remember, Arkansas only scored 20 points on Utah State. And even that is misleading. They got a 72 yard run from McFad late in the game. WYOMING (who lost to UVA) beat Utah State 38-7. And UTAH got more competition from Northern Arizona than they did Utah St...whom they beat 48-0. Also, Arkansas has yet to force a turnover this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bottomfeeder 244 Posted September 22, 2006 Share Posted September 22, 2006 But how do the types of offense and defense used by both teams match up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WAR-MATT 2 Posted September 22, 2006 Share Posted September 22, 2006 BG - How do you think Kines will game plan against the Pigs? Do you think he'll put 8 in the box and force MM to beat them or will he blitz and try to keep pressure MM into a mistake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaGrad03 0 Posted September 22, 2006 Share Posted September 22, 2006 Kines doesnt blitz a lot. But we've been using a 3-3-5 a lot this year. And its kind of messed with QBs. Sure, UH put up some yards against bama, but only 17 points. And most of the yards were against a prevent. Some of that 3-3-5 has been because we've played 3 spread offenses. But some of it is to cater to our depth in the secondary. I think Kines will blitz some. Mostly off the corners. Especially since they only have one WR (Monk) who is a true threat. And Dukes...the strong safety along with both OLBs Simpson and Jones are solid in pass coverage. Luckily for Mustain, this wont be any different from the defenses he's seen in vandy and utah st. He commented earlier this week that he's already seen pretty much everything against those two that he needs to see to be effective against Bama and others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaTiger 0 Posted September 22, 2006 Share Posted September 22, 2006 i've invited a few bama fans over to watch the game...gonna grill out (in the rain evidently) and enjoy watching. hope its a close game; all signs point that way, IMO. ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgufcm 4,107 Posted September 22, 2006 Share Posted September 22, 2006 i'll say this. when i have to choose between a team that knows who it is and one who doesn't have a clue... i usually err on the side of the former. bama's the same every week. play defense, try to run the ball, pass in passing situations, and hope for good special teams. arkansas on the other hand has been all over the board. against usc, they threw it more than they ran it (and keep in mind we're talking about a game that was 16-7 in the 3rd quarter), and it cost them in the second half with int after int despite have 4 backs averaging at or above 5 yards per carry. against usu, they had a run pass ratio of almost 2:1. the point is that oc is still looking for an identity, and bama's defense isn't a good place to find one. early on he was trying to run the spread with a beefy line, great backs, and poor receivers. it seems like he's come to his senses to start running the ball, but who knows, maybe that's just his strategy against weak teams till he can show how "great" his offense can be. i hope arkansas wins; i think bama's got it in the bag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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