Tiger in Spain 0 Posted December 12, 2003 Share Posted December 12, 2003 DEAN IN FOR N.H. BUSH-WHACKING: POLL Source December 12, 2003 -- WASHINGTON - A stunning new poll shows President Bush would clobber Democratic front-runner Howard Dean by nearly 2-1 in politically potent New Hampshire - even though Dean has a giant lead over Democratic rivals in the state. Bush gets 57 percent to Dean's 30 percent among registered voters in the American Research Group poll. In fact, Dean, from neighboring Vermont, does worse in the Granite State than a generic "Democratic Party nominee" who loses to Bush by 51 to 34 percent. Another ARG poll this month showed Dean with a 30-point lead over Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) for the Jan. 27 New Hampshire primary, the second test after the Jan. 19 Iowa caucuses. The new poll seems sure to fuel claims by rivals that Dean would be another George McGovern debacle for Democrats in the general election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaTiger 0 Posted December 12, 2003 Share Posted December 12, 2003 here's my shot at the leftward spinning retort: 1) its early. bush1 had a formidable lead/popularity early in his reelection bid and wound up losing to a small-state governor nobody knew much about. 2) the democratic nominee (whoever it will be) hasn't begun to focus on bush and his policies yet (i know...i know...), rather spending time winning the nomination...something bush doesn't have to do. a united demoncratic party will defeat bush. 3) as soon as people realize the vast differences between dean and bush and see that dean is truly the smarter and better equipped person to lead the country, then they will change their vote. 4) by the time the election rolls around, the economy will be in the crapper, we'll be losing the war in iraq, and ... the deficit! the deficit will be at an all-time high! 5) by the summer, the democratics will have figured out one winning issue and quite possibly even the right side of that issue to be on. ??? how'd i do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DKW 86 7,447 Posted December 12, 2003 Share Posted December 12, 2003 5) by the summer, the democratics will have figured out one winning issue and quite possibly even the right side of that issue to be on. There is so much truth in this that I dont know where to start. They will be so desperate they will be looking for anything, any straw. They will find an issue and then find what side of the issue polls better then decide where they will stand on that issue. That option is open to you if you have no rudder in the water, no moral compass. I would guess that better than half of the Clinton Administrations decisions were made like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigermike 3,057 Posted December 12, 2003 Share Posted December 12, 2003 I can almost taste the lemonade. When President Bush wins reelection, rather than lemonade, it would be nice to hear Al & Donut say, President George W. Bush is my President and get over the rancor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger Al 0 Posted December 12, 2003 Share Posted December 12, 2003 Pretty good, CT. But you put a lot more thought into it than I would right now. I hope Bush, Rove and the boys will continue to keep McGovern at the forefront of their minds. It kind of reminds me of how we were licking our chops before USC came to Auburn. Seems we forgot that they wanted to win, too. TIS, here's a poll that I find just as illuminating. Looks like there will have to be either another national disaster or another war to pull Bush's jobb approval numbers up, historically speaking, that is. Mike, I'll save you the wait and gladly say that President George Walker Bush is your president!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaTiger 0 Posted December 12, 2003 Share Posted December 12, 2003 TA: knowing human nature, the pubs probably will remain confident. as far as your plot... can you tell us what a president's approval rating typically is at this stage in his first term? perhaps break it out for those who won re-election vs. those who didn't win re-election? how different is Bush2 compared to others... perhaps broken out by pubs & dems incumbents... otherwise, the graph is pretty meaningless... it appears he's simply experiencing a reversion to a mean that was there pre-9/11. did you really expect them to stay above 85% his entire time in office? BUT, the graph does have pretty colors. finally... i'm sure bush would prefer his approval ratings be 0% rather than have to preside over another national catastrophy like 9/11. ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger Al 0 Posted December 12, 2003 Share Posted December 12, 2003 as far as your plot... can you tell us what a president's approval rating typically is at this stage in his first term? perhaps break it out for those who won re-election vs. those who didn't win re-election? how different is Bush2 compared to others... perhaps broken out by pubs & dems incumbents... Well, ct, it's pretty straightforward. All of the pretty colors represent 14 different polling entities. At certain intervals they all poll people, in whatever manner they choose to use, and ask those people questions and the people answer them. This particular group of polls represents the answers to the questions concerning the people's approval of the job that George Bush is doing as president of our country. I don't think that there is a meaningful checklist that you could use to compare one president's approval rating with another ones. You could compare Bush Sr at one year to Bush Jr at one year but it wouldn't mean anything other than what each one polled at for that particular time. I do know, however, that on the day of President Clinton's impeachment his approval rating was at 70%!!! That's pretty good, huh? This set of polls tells me that W has to have some major event, preferrably where people are killed, so that he can pander to our fears in order to have a fairly high approval rating. Barring another one, I suspect you'll see all those pretty colors drop off the chart unless they adjust its' centering. But, who knows, Bush may run out of time before that happens. I just hope the pubs do remain confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TitanTiger 20,519 Posted December 12, 2003 Share Posted December 12, 2003 The most recent set of poll numbers I showed have Bush's approval ratings ahead of Clinton's at this point in his first term, but lower than his father's at the same time of his first term. By the way, Clinton's approval ratings did not make it over 50% during his first term until January of 1996, ten months before the election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger Al 0 Posted December 13, 2003 Share Posted December 13, 2003 By the way, Clinton's approval ratings did not make it over 50% during his first term until January of 1996, ten months before the election. You mean his RE-ELECTION!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDM4AU 336 Posted December 13, 2003 Share Posted December 13, 2003 You mean his RE-ELECTION!!! Oh, brother! Is that the best reply you've got? :headshake: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUBURNTIGERFAN 0 Posted December 13, 2003 Share Posted December 13, 2003 Hey everyone try this! go to www.google.com and search for "miserable failure" and see who pops up! hehe WDE! BEAT THOSE CHEESE HEADS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TitanTiger 20,519 Posted December 13, 2003 Share Posted December 13, 2003 By the way, Clinton's approval ratings did not make it over 50% during his first term until January of 1996, ten months before the election. You mean his RE-ELECTION!!! Point being, Bush is ahead of the game if these numbers mean anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaTiger 0 Posted December 13, 2003 Share Posted December 13, 2003 Well, ct, it's pretty straightforward. All of the pretty colors represent 14 different polling entities. At certain intervals they all poll people, in whatever manner they choose to use, and ask those people questions and the people answer them. This particular group of polls represents the answers to the questions concerning the people's approval of the job that George Bush is doing as president of our country. well thanks, TA, but i had the graph pretty much understood... i was asking for meaningful data...not a primer on that graph. my point is, those dots on that graph mean nothing... bush appears basically at the same level he was pre-9/11. if you are surprised he received bumps during times of national crisis, then you are not as bright as you pretend. if you are suggesting that bush wants another crisis to improve his rating, then you are forgetting that bush isn't clinton. if you're merely trying to discredit bush and/or strike fear in the hearts of his supporters, try try again. why do you think his numbers will fall off the chart? naturally, when something is at 85% of its maximum, there's really only one way to go...and that is down. again, did you really expect him to stay at an 85% approval rating? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger Al 0 Posted December 13, 2003 Share Posted December 13, 2003 again, did you really expect him to stay at an 85% approval rating? Well, if I believed all of the warm and fuzzies that you guys put out here every day, then, quite frankly, yes I would expect to see very high numbers, say in the 70% area, at least. I constantly read on this forum and the news articles you all link that the overwhelming majority of Americans are behind Bush :jester: . Those that do dare to disagree are either mad or mad :wacko: . You all say that the vast majority of Americans appreciate the things he's done or addressed like the Patriot Act the tax cuts :$: the economy the unemployment rate Medicare :help: homeland security foreign policy :confused: and the environment :alien: . OH...I almost forgot about Iraq and the terrorizers!!! :freedom: Judging by what I read here, the Democrats :innocent: need not even apply for the job in the White House because its' current resident :jester: has this country firmly behind him and except for the few in the pinko radical liberal camp like the Naders, Donutboy and me basically, it's just a big Bush :jester: love-in here in America. My point was to illustrate that, contrary to popular Kool Aid opinion , that doesn't appear to be the case. And to also reiterate that, at what should've been the lowest point in Clinton's presidency, the day Congress decided if his acts (marital infidelity) were such High Crimes and Misdemeanors that he needed to go, he instead had a very high 70% approval rating. For Bush :jester: to get those kinds of numbers, someone has to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donutboy 0 Posted December 13, 2003 Share Posted December 13, 2003 By the way, Clinton's approval ratings did not make it over 50% during his first term until January of 1996, ten months before the election. You mean his RE-ELECTION!!! Point being, Bush is ahead of the game if these numbers mean anything. Unless you believe in Karma. King George the first had an approval rating in the 70+% range after we won the first Gulf War and just one year prior to the 1992 election. He was considered unbeatable and only a handful of Democratic unknowns were there to challenge him. All the major Democratic contenders decided to sit out the 1992 election and wait until the end of his second term. We were stuck in a recession, even though Republicans at the time swore the recession was over. George the Firsts approval ratings had slid to just over 50% by the end of 1991 and after a tough re-election bid in 1992 in which he could only muster 39% of the popular vote after winning in a landslide in 1988, he was defeated by previously unknown former governor by the name of Bill Clinton. Keep counting those chickens Tiger In Spain!! The eggs will hatch next year, not tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TitanTiger 20,519 Posted December 14, 2003 Share Posted December 14, 2003 Unless you believe in Karma. Well, I don't. blah, blah, blah...lots of typical Donut lib blather that ignores the point of what I said, as usual. Restating the point, these numbers don't mean bunk. The President's approval ratings are higher than Clinton's or his father's at the same point in their first terms, and if I'm not mistaken, it's also higher than Reagan's was at this point (or at least very close). Karma, schmarma. If I was going to put any stock in these numbers, I'd put stock in a historical trend that seems to indicate that Bush, Sr. was an aberration, not the rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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