Did Saban Mess Up?

[CircleDrill 178]

Expecting to win 10 games, and expecting to win the NC, are two entirely different things.

True. I will concede that point.

It's just funny how Alabama fans consider such a quantum leap of expectations overnight to be "reasonable." (Going from 7-5 prediction to 10-2 prediction after winning 1 game). Why not go ahead and shoot for the MNC? It's only 2-3 more games.

Most reasonable people would wait until they had 7 W's and then look at the rest of the season before saying hey we might win 10 games this year! But not Alabama fans. They do it in week 3 after the first real oppononent they played.

[CircleDrill 178]

most aren't upset with CMA, i don't think. i'm not really. he doesn't make JPW overthrow a wide open receiver a million times a game. he doesn't make JPW throw it in the turf a few yards in front of his receiver. i've been pretty content with the playcalling considering this is his first year in the SEC. SEC defenses are light years better than what he saw at Rice i'm sure.

Hmmm.... If I didn't know better, I would think this is putting the blame on JPW, the fantastic QB that just happened to go to Hoover. Careful! You are sounding eerily like the JPW 12-page thread here! BG will get you!

[runswithscissors 33]

Expecting to win 10 games, and expecting to win the NC, are two entirely different things.

True. I will concede that point.

It's just funny how Alabama fans consider such a quantum leap of expectations overnight to be "reasonable." (Going from 7-5 prediction to 10-2 prediction after winning 1 game). Why not go ahead and shoot for the MNC? It's only 2-3 more games.

Most reasonable people would wait until they had 7 W's and then look at the rest of the season before saying hey we might win 10 games this year! But not Alabama fans. They do it in week 3 after the first real oppononent they played.

for the folks that started getting hyped up after that game, it may have something to do with all the crap they were showing during the game about the winner of that game usually goes on to have a 10 win season. i think that was like a 5 year trend or something like that. the winner usually had a 10 win season and the loser somewhere around .500. i'm not going to say thats the reason why 100% of them got hyped, because some had unreal expectations going into the season. but alot of us still think 7-5 or 8-4 at best with a mid-tier bowl game. in todays game, it seems like sometimes winning one game can sway a whole season. at least thats a perception that you might get. "ever since that game, we've been a different team" type stuff. we've all seen it with plenty of teams before. sometimes its warranted. sometimes its not. you don't know until the season is over i guess. i'm glad we won that game. it showed that we could do something that normally over the past 4 years that we wouldn't normally be able to do. that probably didn't help things either.

[runswithscissors 33]

most aren't upset with CMA, i don't think. i'm not really. he doesn't make JPW overthrow a wide open receiver a million times a game. he doesn't make JPW throw it in the turf a few yards in front of his receiver. i've been pretty content with the playcalling considering this is his first year in the SEC. SEC defenses are light years better than what he saw at Rice i'm sure.

Hmmm.... If I didn't know better, I would think this is putting the blame on JPW, the fantastic QB that just happened to go to Hoover. Careful! You are sounding eerily like the JPW 12-page thread here! BG will get you!

apparently you paid absolutely 0 attention to any posts except your own after our loss. you can go read some of my posts after you resurrected that thread to see my feelings on JPW. in short, unlike some other fanbases, i'm not willing to bail on my team's QB and crucify him after one bad game.

[InDNo 0]

I think if beating Arky launched our expectations too high, losing two in a row is probably the best way to bring them back down to earth.

And losing three in a row?

The Coogs will put up some points. I'm not sure bammer can keep up.

InDNo

[Bama Possum 0]

While I don't think many people expected 10 or more wins, it is important to put the first 3 or 4 weeks of the season into context...

Week 1: Bama played well against an overgrown HS. No one was predicting great things.

Week 2: Many people felt that Vandy was going to be hot this year and Bama was not predicted to win by some. Winning that one was a bit of a boost for some, but most conceded that it was still the same old Vandy.

Add some other facts to this week. 1- Auburn loses to MSU in a really bad looking game after having struggled the week before. The Iron Bowl looked more winnable. 2- UGA lost to SC. This was a shock to most and UGA didn't look as formidable, suddenly, a win over Arkansas made September look like a very good month.

Week 3: Bama pulls out the win, their first 4th quarter comeback since Franchione. There is a larger glimmer of hope based on other factors... 1- Auburn lost...AGAIN...to USF. A team no one had considered a real player at the time. 2. Florida sodomized Tennessee, making that game look more winnable.

Week 4: Bama loses to UGA...In overtime. It was a tight game late, but most saw positives in the overall play. Florida State loomed on the horizon with the appearance of being pretty well matched. FSU's offense had been simply offensive for a while. Drew Weatherford looked bad in every game. IMHO, if Weatherford had remained in instead of the switch to Richardson then Lee, Bama would have shut them down completely. The halftime score was 0-0 despite FSU having favorable field position the entire first half. No one anticipated FSU finally finding a QB in time. Bowden wasn't joking when he mentioned a 0-0 tie at halftime.

Alabama is still a decent team and has a shot at making some noise. Ole Miss gave Florida all they wanted while scraping by others. Tennessee is a Jekyl and Hyde crew right now. Miss. State is extremely beatable. LSU is a monster without a leash. It would take a miracle to win that game. Auburn is still very beatable despite the UF game.

9-3 best case scenario, much like I predicted earlier. 7-5 is probably more realistic. 6-6 and I would be a little disappointed, but not ballistic. There is still a half a season left, and it has been a WEIRD one thus far.

Did Saban shoot himself in the foot? No. When things are put in perspective, I can understand why some folks got really excited, but I think most understand, and have always understood, the reality.

[InDNo 0]

While I don't think many people expected 10 or more wins, it is important to put the first 3 or 4 weeks of the season into context...

Week 1: Bama played well against an overgrown HS. No one was predicting great things.

Week 2: Many people felt that Vandy was going to be hot this year and Bama was not predicted to win by some. Winning that one was a bit of a boost for some, but most conceded that it was still the same old Vandy.

Add some other facts to this week. 1- Auburn loses to MSU in a really bad looking game after having struggled the week before. The Iron Bowl looked more winnable. 2- UGA lost to SC. This was a shock to most and UGA didn't look as formidable, suddenly, a win over Arkansas made September look like a very good month.

Week 3: Bama pulls out the win, their first 4th quarter comeback since Franchione. There is a larger glimmer of hope based on other factors... 1- Auburn lost...AGAIN...to USF. A team no one had considered a real player at the time. 2. Florida sodomized Tennessee, making that game look more winnable.

Week 4: Bama loses to UGA...In overtime. It was a tight game late, but most saw positives in the overall play. Florida State loomed on the horizon with the appearance of being pretty well matched. FSU's offense had been simply offensive for a while. Drew Weatherford looked bad in every game. IMHO, if Weatherford had remained in instead of the switch to Richardson then Lee, Bama would have shut them down completely. The halftime score was 0-0 despite FSU having favorable field position the entire first half. No one anticipated FSU finally finding a QB in time. Bowden wasn't joking when he mentioned a 0-0 tie at halftime.

Alabama is still a decent team and has a shot at making some noise. Ole Miss gave Florida all they wanted while scraping by others. Tennessee is a Jekyl and Hyde crew right now. Miss. State is extremely beatable. LSU is a monster without a leash. It would take a miracle to win that game. Auburn is still very beatable despite the UF game.

9-3 best case scenario, much like I predicted earlier. 7-5 is probably more realistic. 6-6 and I would be a little disappointed, but not ballistic. There is still a half a season left, and it has been a WEIRD one thus far.

Did Saban shoot himself in the foot? No. When things are put in perspective, I can understand why some folks got really excited, but I think most understand, and have always understood, the reality.

Not a bad post, but you need to get the facts right. AU lost to USF before MSU. A mistake such as that when the Internet is chock full of schedules hurts your credibility. I see no mention of Houston, who will play you guys off your feet (granted, it's not a conference game).

Finally, I believe Bama is looking at four more losses (and, with Houston, potentially five) to Florida, Tennessee, LSU and Auburn. With State on the road, that's also a possibility. I expect you to thrash Ole Miss in Tuscaloosa.

InDNo

[Argo 8]

Not a bad post, but you need to get the facts right. AU lost to USF before MSU. A mistake such as that when the Internet is chock full of schedules hurts your credibility.

Finally, I believe Bama is looking at four more losses (and, with Houston, potentially five) to Florida, Tennessee, LSU and Auburn. With State on the road, that's also a possibility. I expect you to thrash Ole Miss in Tuscaloosa.

InDNo

Speaking of needing to get the facts right, we don't play Florida this season. A mistake such as that when the Internet is chock full of schedules hurts your credibility.

[InDNo 0]

Not a bad post, but you need to get the facts right. AU lost to USF before MSU. A mistake such as that when the Internet is chock full of schedules hurts your credibility.

Finally, I believe Bama is looking at four more losses (and, with Houston, potentially five) to Florida, Tennessee, LSU and Auburn. With State on the road, that's also a possibility. I expect you to thrash Ole Miss in Tuscaloosa.

InDNo

Speaking of needing to get the facts right, we don't play Florida this season. A mistake such as that when the Internet is chock full of schedules hurts your credibility.

Damn. I thought since Bama Possum mentioned Florida's scrap with Ole Miss that surely y'all must play UF. But, you're right. Why would I take the word (or insinuation) of someone who had other facts incorrect?

Should have checked myself.

Mea culpa.

InDNo

[BamaGrad03 0]

InDNo, while Houston does have a pretty good offense, and did win 10 games last year...I really don't see us dropping this one.

Houston is just what the doctor ordered for our struggling offense, they have a terrible defense. They gave up 37 to East Carolina.

And their strength on offense goes against our strength on D. We have a very good secondary, and they throw a lot. Where we struggle is when teams run right at us. And I don't think they have the horses to take advantage of that.

[CircleDrill 178]

InDNo, while Houston does have a pretty good offense, and did win 10 games last year...I really don't see us dropping this one.

Houston is just what the doctor ordered for our struggling offense, they have a terrible defense. They gave up 37 to East Carolina.

And their strength on offense goes against our strength on D. We have a very good secondary, and they throw a lot. Where we struggle is when teams run right at us. And I don't think they have the horses to take advantage of that.

With all of the upsets that have taken place in 2007, I would not be surprised to see this game come down to the last posession. Same with Vandy @ AU.

[BamaGrad03 0]

I think UA has a better shot at losing to Houston than AU does to Vandy. Bama didn't show much of their offense at all in that game and won easily.

Auburn by double digits.

[DKW 86 7,441]

[Grider 1]

"Sometimes, when I get nervous, I stick my hands under my armpits and than I smell them like this!"

[ECEstudentUA 9]

I think if beating Arky launched our expectations too high, losing two in a row is probably the best way to bring them back down to earth.

That loss to FSU I think was the best thing for this team. It sounds stupid, but I think that it will make the players more focused and ready for this week.

I expect Bama to beat Houston, Ole Miss, and be ready for UT.

Outside of that, a loss to LSU and Auburn is very likely.

So, 8-4 sounds pretty dang good for a first year under a new head coach.

[ECEstudentUA 9]

I think UA has a better shot at losing to Houston than AU does to Vandy. Bama didn't show much of their offense at all in that game and won easily.

Auburn by double digits.

Oh yea, thats an easy pick.

Bama will win the game, but struggle.

Auburn should blow Vandy out of the stadium.