USC Upstate Preview

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

USC Upstate brings a record of 3-3 to Auburn Arena tomorrow night to face our boys who are sitting at 4-1 on the season and 3-0 at home. This is the type of game that we are expected to win and must do so to keep post season hopes alive. This game is also a perfect follow up to our disappointing loss to Purdue, as USC Upstate is a poor man's Purdue. They have balanced scoring from their guards and a 7 footer who gets about 12 pts a game, and an athletic forward who fills in the gaps. We will get to see how we adjust from the Purdue game. The good news is Upstate doesn't average 75% from the field. In fact they averages are not very good, low 40's from the field, low 30's from three, and low 60's from the stripe. While those number are very pedestrian, their numbers are slightly better than ours, which brings me to my next point. 

At this early point in the season, we are all over the place; we have had very good shooting games and very poor shooting games. Our defense has been the indicator of our team, play well and win, play poorly and lose. The various metrics out there can't make their mind up yet about us either, ranking as low as 119 and as high as 39, with the best metrics having us in the 70's range. 

We will be heavily favored in this game, probably by 15 or so (no line is out at the time of writing this). I will watch this game as an indicator of where we are going. A loss is simply unacceptable, period. To me the best indicator that we are going in the right direction is another good showing on defense. In my opinion, the offense will get figured out based on talent as our chemistry comes along, its our defense that cannot take off nights. A tight defensive showing would be very encouraging. As stated above, Upstate doesn't have good offensive averages, but they streaky, putting up as low as 57 and as much as 91 and 108 (in overtime) this season. They have a respectable average of 76 per game. However, they do not defend well giving up 83 per game, and giving up 100+ twice this year (once in overtime). Perhaps, we find some rhythm and break the century mark for the first time this season.   

We should win this game comfortably. They have one 7 footer and another forward at 6-9, but that is it sizewise. Their guards are small and they are not very deep, playing 7 or 8 guys meaningful minutes. The various metrics hold them in lowly esteem, so a loss here would be devastating for us. We have almost nothing to gain in this game other than some confidence. I would expect our big guards to have big games, Purifoy and Heron should continue their hot start. I will be watching Harper closely to see how well he controls the game on our end of the floor and if we regain some flow on offense. Dunans has received more minutes the last two games, look for him to be part of the game plan early in this one. Upstate does rebound fairly well, so I will also be watching that stat line to see what adjustments have been made since our trip to Cancun, where we were out-rebounded by 10 boards per game, and by 17 vs Purdue.

SECn+ at 7pm central tomorrow night.  

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

Good notes!

[FoundationEagle 637]

Thanks. Seeing as the football board is not anywhere I want to be anymore for a while, I'm glad BBall is atleast interesting.  We have loads of potential. I just hope we gel before it's too late this year (not that it's anywhere close to too late or that we aren't showing signs of gelling). If we can just play somewhere between the 1st half of Purdue and the 2cnd half (maybe a little closer to the 1st), we can and should make some post season tourney. If we can manage to consistently play like that 1st half, NCAA tourney may be possible.  Surely far better prospects than a few years ago!  Let's get back on track with a big W tomorrow!

[gravejd 3,270]

This should not be a close game. They have a 7 ftr but we should match them everywhere else with size and better athletes. Great opportunity for the team to show they can pick themselves up quickly after a bad finish last game out. I missed the last 2 so hope I can catch this one. 

[RunInRed 16,454]

Thanks @JwgreDeux - good stuff!

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

A few additional notes in advance of the game today:

First, though I expect Auburn to win tonight, this game is not a foregone conclusion. According to realtimeRPI, Upstate is ranked ahead of all of our opponents except Purdue and Georgia St., very closely ranked by all metrics with Texas Tech. We out classed Tech in talent, but our youth allowed them back into the game. That is why tonight will be a good measure to see if we improve. 

Speaking of Tech, following our trip to Cancun, we are now ranked 39th by Espn's RPI, and a consensus top 50 RPI team by almost all metrics out there. That is the definition of a bubble team. Prior to the trip to Cancun we our RPI was in the 130-150 range. The win versus Tech and the loss to Purdue, brought our SOS metric from the 280 range to 50-60 range (60th most difficult). 

A win tonight would be a top 150 win which should help us a little bit, a loss would hurt badly. Our next three opponents, UAB, Boston College, Coastal Carolina, all have RPIs in the 200s. So it will be interesting to see how we handle being the favorite, as most metrics would have us favored against all of those teams as of this moment. To stay in the top 50 RPI or even climb a bit in this stretch, we can't afford more than one loss; certainly not one tonight at home. 

Current top SEC RPI: Florida 8, South Carolina 9, Kentucky 19, Ole Miss 27, Auburn 39, Arkansas 42, LSU 89, Georgia 101, Texas A&M 117, Bama 119, Vandy 162, Mizzo 244, Miss. St. 260, Tenn 263. The SEC is projected to be a 3 or 4 bid leauge, so we are on the outside right now unless the league pulls more.

(still no Vegas betting number at this time)

Edited November 29, 2016 by JwgreDeux

[gravejd 3,270]

Are those RPI numbers really that telling this time of the year? The way you stated that info it seems like you are saying upstate is comparable to TT which I don't think anyone would agree on. Until everyone has 10-15 games played I don't think those RPI numbers mean a whole lot. I would say upstate is more comparable to north fl versus TT on a how good are they basis. 

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

2 minutes ago, gravejd said:

Are those RPI numbers really that telling this time of the year? The way you stated that info it seems like you are saying upstate is comparable to TT which I don't think anyone would agree on. Until everyone has 10-15 games played I don't think those RPI numbers mean a whole lot. I would say upstate is more comparable to north fl versus TT on a how good are they basis. 

Certainly with more games the RPI numbers will be more reliable.  5 to 7 games is a decent sample size, and when you add in a bit of eye test opinions I think you can get a good feel for a teams' talent level at this point in the season. What you don't have a good feel for is how will a team react when a given circumstance is presented. Several of the metrics are all over the place with regards to various teams. I think Texas Tech would be favored over Upstate by 15+ points, but they missed the spread vs us by 7 points. I used RPI in this discussion because that gets prominent discussion during the selection process. 

 

[tgr4lfe 220]

Saw Upstate play year in year out for 7 years while working at Lipscomb University.  You can count on them being a good ball team and one to not take for granted.  They were the A-Sun tourney runner ups last year.  AU will have to play some ball, but as you said AU should win it.  Could be closer than we want.