JwgreDeux

First, I agree much can be derived from a box score. It often helps tell the story for games that you may have even watched. But if you didn't see the game, at least go to an advanced box score that tracks things like +/- and efficiency ratings. If you did, you would see that Flan did have a poor game, but not the worst of the night. Multiple players had worse impacts on the team while on the floor. Second, I never said Flan played well. C. Moore was better in every category in that one game. I think Flan has a higher ceiling than Moore when he is healthy, but not to the point where he will be a focal point. My comment was a question to you and others about the 3 spot and what is expected from that position for this team to be successful. All that being said, IF his play continues this way, I think you will see Moore get additional minutes.

After reading several posts questioning the production and playing time of various players and after reflecting on some of my own posts on this topic, I thought I would take a deeper look. Last season here is the production we got from our position groups: Pos: Points, rebs, tos, ast, stl, blk 1/2: 29; 8.75; 5.25; 8.5; 4.4; 0.5 3: 12.5; 5; 3.5; 2.25; 1.25; 0.5 4/5: 36; 22; 4; 4.5; 2.75; 7.75 While the above simplified production numbers for last year's team is not a model of success per se, that team did win the league, achieve a #1 ranking, make the NCAA as a 2 seed and advance to the second round. So looking at what the position groupings need to do, and what happened in game 1 (I know its a small sample size). Guards: 31; 11; 5; 8; 6; 0 - pretty on par with last year's production numbers, biggest difference is more rebounds in part due to Donaldson's 3. Wing: 11; 5; 1; 0; 3; 1 - pretty on par with last year's production points down slightly as well as assists. Post: 27; 25; 3; 4; 5; 9 -most on par with last year's production, point down noticeably. Obviously this is just one game and some oversimplified stats, but I think it gives us a bit of context in the production we need from various positions and players. At guard I would expect last years numbers to look similar with our current group (while Westry is out). If Zep plays more aggressive at the 2 offensively I would actually expect our offensive numbers to go up in several categories. Donaldson's addition looks to improve our guard rebounding and potentially assist/TO numbers as he has look solid with the ball in his hands in the limited exposure we have so far. On the wing, I expect less production in the scoring categories by design. We don't have any shooters at the 3 and we didn't last year either. I expect fewer 3s to be shot by this group and more slashing, rebounding to produce points. In game one, only 3 attempts from outside. Last years average attempts per game from 3 at the wing spot was nearly 5. I think Flan and Moore are well suited for this role. At the post, I expect the scoring to continue but be spread out over more guys. This is our best position group again this season. The blueprint is the same as last season. It is a great blueprint that I think this group can execute. The question is can we be more efficient and how does Westry change the mix at various groups. Will he play more 2 or 3? Time will tell.

If you didn't watch, how can you say he was not benefiting the team? That aside, what production do you think we need from him or anyone at the 3 spot?

Curious to know what you mean (production-wise) when you say get Flan back to his potential and he must be a pivotal player?

The shooting is what it is. Ball movement was pretty good, rebounding was good and defensive pressure was outstanding. Donaldson's addition allows us to be more aggressive on defense as Zep and KD won't have to play as many minutes. Front court was solid, still a work in progress as expected. My view of this group remains the same after game one. Good pieces, good fit, need to work out some kinks. The percentages weren't good, but I actually thought we took good shots as a whole and that was good to see. That also allowed us to be really good on the offensive glass.

You could very well be right, but we are also now recruiting 5 stars that don't come in to sit on the bench. So you have to balance rewarding players who stay with rewarding players who come. For me then, you just play the best guy and you can look everyone in the eyes and say the best guy will play. I am a fan of Williams, and he is going to be a big part of this team this season. But last time I checked Traore is a borderline first rounder right now on some mock drafts.

I'm not an expert talent evaluator as far as mock drafts go etc. However, I feel pretty confident about evaluating our roster and who gives us the best chance to win. Traore is going to be undeniable by the end of the season. I think we need to have stability coming off the bench and Williams can excel in that role. Either way, we have quality depth at that position and it will be fun to watch it play out.

I think Williams play a lot, and he might start game one. However, after re-watching some of the Israel trip and looking at the potential rotations I think he is too good not to start. He has a very high ceiling, very high.

After weeks of practice, closed scrimmage and an exhibition here is my game one prediction for our starting five and next guy up at each spot (Obvioulsy Westry is out for now): 1. Green; Donaldson 2. Zep; KD 3. Flannigan; Moore 4. Traore; Williams 5. Cardwell; Broome (due in part to Broome's injury)

I mentioned this in passing in another thread. Glad you made it's as this is a huge deal for our program. He is likely to be #2 at this end of this season, and could be the leader at the end of next season.

We are absolutely going to struggle shooting the 3 again this year in the sense that we will be streaky. What hurt us in March wasn't JUST poor three point shooting though, so I wouldn't tie good post-season run strictly to 3pt%. The fact is Green, Flannigan, and Williams all have horrible pre-release mechanics and they will be streaky shooters at best. KD has better form but has selection issues that is at the essence of who he is as a player, good and bad. So it will be interesting to see how Zep, Westry, Donaldson and Yohan shoot from the three this season. I expect marginal improvement at best from our returners.

A couple things are clear from that exhibition relating to the depth chart. Zep is not playing point much right now. It appears that Donaldson is far enough along to get minutes as the back up 1 and Zep and KD will play the 2, no more combo guards for the most part. Flan looked healthy. His movements look healthy and I hope its a sign of a solid season for him. When healthy his athleticism, strength and speed are elite.

First, the fact we add a player of Westry's caliber means the backcourt doesn't stay the same. I think it will prove to be a significant addition. Second, while Jabari shot a very good 3pt %, his 2pt % wasn't very good because he took mostly jumpers. Williams had a much better 2pt % as did other posts/wings. Jabari was fantastic don't get me wrong here, I'm just saying that his game combined with Kessler left us with no front court option to score from the post. So everything was based on high pnr and above the elbow or extended block action. That allowed Kessler's defender to sag way off and clog the lanes among other issues it presented for our guards/wings. The fit will be better this season. Tallent level is down, but I think we will see the fit/flow be better.

I mean we didn't have a true 2 on the roster, and we still don't. Every guard we have is a combo. Zep is actually the closest thing to a 2 we have, unless KD changes who he is all together.

I don't think the guards' game will dramatically change. I think you are on to something in that CBP has Williams/Traore and Broome who can catch the ball in the mid-range and put it on the floor to make some offense. Something we didn't have last season, so I think the sets will be a bit different.

Looking at the schedule and the uncertainty around the timing and health of Westry, my preseason prediction is 21-9 overall and 12-6 in the league (not counting unscheduled tourney games). I do however think this team will build as the year goes on, barring injury, and be better built for tourney play.

its tonight.

Anyone know if there is a way to stream the exhibition game tomorrow night? I haven't seen anything listed as available.

Additionally, on Westry, he has more versatility than any other player on last year's team. I personally think he could legit start at 1-3 for us, so CBP will be able to put him at any of those spots to maximize the abilities of our other players. Hopefully that means we get to see a better version of Wen/Zep/KD. I think Westry, once healthy, will spend most of his time at the 2 spot but time will tell.

The other night I was reading a few articles about our program, including a few about how the team could improve in certain areas this year. All the usual topics were covered, replacing Jabari and Kessler, improving shooting %, and not being able to get good shots late in games/halves/end of clocks. All of that is good and true, etc, but something was stirred in my mind and I went back and looked over the stats from the games we lost last season. Fortunately the sample size was only 6 games and the issue in those games seemed to simply be we shot the ball poorly. But we won other games where we shot the ball poorly, from 2 and/or 3, so that doesn't really explain those losses. Part of the problem, sure, but not the cause in my mind. So I looked at turnovers/assists/steals, and again we didn't perform well in those losses, but no obvious theme was present across all of the losses. Then I thought about games we won ugly, or struggled to win and looked at those stats and I noticed something. We had three players averaging double digit shot attempts for the season. Jabari 13, Wen 11, and KD 10 (Kessler had 7, then Flan, Caimbridge, Williams, Zep all with 5 attempts per gm). That seemed off to me so I looked at Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky in our league and Duke, Gonzaga, and Arizona nationally to compare. NONE of them had three players averaging double digit shot attempts and THREE of them had only one player with double digits shots. Of our three averaging double digit shots, two were shooting sub 40% from the floor for the season. Of the other teams I looked at that had multiple double digit shooters NONE of them had two shooters sub 40% from the floor for the season. Now, I know this isn't a statistical analysis of the entirety of d1 ball, but I think it does help me identify our trend in games we struggled last year. I had ended the season with the idea that the guards just weren't good enough for us to go deep in March. But now, I think it was FIT. The pieces we had just didn't quite fit together. In a way, the same reason Wiley never reached the ceiling he was capable of. Could the guards have been better, sure. I don't mean chemistry or attitude or anything like that. I mean the games/tallents of our guys just didn't quite work well enough together. That was something I talked about last season and previous seasons, CBP having to make decisions on rotations and pecking order etc. I don't think he made any wrong decisions per se, I just think he didn't have the options he really wanted. At the guard position for instance, who else could he have played? How could he have changed the rotations? And in the front court, what else could you do beside play Jabari and Kessler? Nobody questions that. Our talent level was high enough to win a lot of games, but the fit wasn't tight enough for a deep run in the tourney. I think that's all there was to it. So looking to the 2023 season there is reason to believe this issue could be better. First, our 4 man simply won't demand the ball the way Jabari did and his shot attempts will be spread out over several players. Second, Broome has a better offensive game with his back to the basket than any AU player in recent years, which should help in many ways from late clock looks, to more assists from the post, to improved shooting from three for some guys. Third, Westry will impact the minutes of KD and therefore his shot attempts will be spread around. This lineup looks more like what CBP has had to work with in some of his best seasons, with a few guys who have NBA tallent levels. While the loss of Kessler and Jabari brings our talent level down overall, I can't help but feel like the piece may fit better this season.

Just looking further at possible playing time I've been thinking about one glaring decision CBP will have to make. Who loses minutes to Westry? Last season we had a three man rotation to cover the 1 and 2 spot. (Lior got 8 mins a game at the 2, but with his lack of pt in the recent scrimmage I don't expect a dramatic change in that). KD got 28 mins per, Wen 27 and Zep 23. With Zep and Wen playing 1 and 2 and KD playing almost exclusively at the 2, you have to believe that Westry will impact KD's minutes the most. Personally, I think Westry has the skills to play the 3, but not the physical size/weight yet. So, I think we are going to see him at the 2 the most and think he will be just too valuable to keep in the bench for KD to get similar minutes to last year. I know it is weird for a returning player that started so many games last year, but I think KD's minutes could be reduced by as much as half. If you doubt that, think about Jaylin Williams. Started every game at the 4 and played 27 minutes per in 20-21. Last year, behind Jabari started 0 and played 14 mins per game. Now, I don't think Westry is anything close to Jabari tallent-wise. But I do think he will demand heavy minutes on this roster at the 2. I also think he has a very real chance to be our closer. He can handle the ball, he has good vision and he shot free throws pretty well in high school. I know we haven't seen much of him, but from what little I have seen I am cautiously optimistic. I am beginning to really like this roster. Yohan, Broome, Williams and Cardwell are going to be much more physical than our front court last season (please don't mistake this for meaning "better"). With Flan and Moore playing their role of tough defense, slashing, and rebounding and the added element of Westry in the guard rotation, this group could have a very strong season. I expect some ugly basketball early, but as Westry gets 100% and the team builds chemistry, challenging for the league and a run in the postseason is definitely on the table.

Recently CBP said he isn't sure who will be starting but he knew the group that would be closing out games would be the guys who shoot free-throws the best. The best returning free-throw shooters are: Wendell Green (84.4 percent on 147 attempts), Jaylin Wiliams (81.8 percent on 33 free throws) and Zep Jasper (81.0 percent on 42 free throws)

Don't for JT Thor. One of the quietest one and dones ever.

Statistically it is unlikely, but what he has already done was also statistically unlikely. I Think there is a legit shot for him to win a NCAA title and that is an awesome thought as an AU fan. What is very interesting that I don't see much talk about is he has a good chance to pass Cliff Ellis and Sonny Smith in wins as the AU coach this season, and will be our all time winningest coach in the next 3-4 seasons unless something crazy happens. That is a thought to reflect on. We are in the middle of the best run our program has had with a coach that the floor/arena etc will be named after one day.

With the recent media days and reports on the scrimmage it appears my depth chart was pretty close. Chance was going to start based on comments BP recently made. Fromt he scrimmage reports it looks like the current starting five is: 1. Green 2. Zep 3. Moore 4.Williams 5. Broome The only surprise being Moore based on my previous listing, but injury to Chance and Flan missing time is obviously a big factor there. Have to be honest that I'm not overly excited about that starting 5. Highlights how important I think Chance is to this group. Hope he recovers quickly and fully.