JwgreDeux

Most curious to see what we look like on defense. I think we know what a CBP offense will generally look like. I expect the scoring to be better with a 2 guard who is willing to shoot the ball.

Bump. Looking at this topic, Auburn's official website has CBP at 173 whereas other sites have hime at 187. This difference is apparently related to the Chuck Person investigation and vacating wins where Purifoy and Wiley played and they were later deemed ineligible. That would have him tied for third with Sonny Smith and still chasing Ellis with 186 and Eaves with 208.

Vegas lines are out with us as a 1 - 2 point dog. O/U at 144. So a game in the low 70's 73-71 or so favored for Baylor. With the amount of new players on each side how in the world could anyone feel good about making a line for these early season games?

Don't know much about Furman but do remember them beating Virginia in the NCAA tourney first round last year. Last year they scored 82pts a game. Giving up 77 in a scrimmage is a cause for caution on the defensive side. Not knowing the rules they used or how it was scored, we can't judge much. But so far the read on this team is good on offense and a work in progress on defense, seems to be true. I do think they lost their top two scorers and they gave up a bunch of points on defense last year so our offensive output may be a bit inflated. Most of all, CBP seemed happy about it. That takeaway is probably the most significant thing.

He basically played the 5 at UAH. He's going to play the 4, maybe some 3 if we go big. There's no chance he plays the 2. Baker-Mazara played at San Diego State and was the sixth man of the year in that conference. Had big a big game in the NCAA tourney and was getting minutes over guys that ended up playing in the final four last season. His trip down to juco was grades not performance. I look for him to really improve our play from the 3 spot. I would say a lot riding on our play from the PG position as a whole. Donaldson showed some things at the end of last season to suggest he may be able to give us what we need (creating for others with some scoring) from that position.

Understanding that it is against high school, juco, and lesser division competition, I've gone back and watched some limited film on our new-comers here are my observations: Aden Holloway: He's light. Listed at 178, I doubt he's much over 160 unless he's gained significant weight. Has very good handles and keeps his dribble alive well. Creative on the break and in the half court. His shot looks pretty natural and has good form overall. The thing I like the most is he can score inside the arch without getting all the way to the basket. He has shown the ability to pull up, shoot floaters, and other shots. This could be a marketed change from our recent guards that often pushed the ball all the way to the basket and couldn't finish. Chad Baker-Mazara: Former sixth man of the year when he was in the MW at SDSU, before transferring down to JUCO because of grade issues. Had 17 pts in the NCAA tournament game vs Creighton with SDSU. He's a lefty that can shoot the ball and create his own shot off of no more than 3 dribbles. Does not handle it well enough to be a 2 and is not big enough (190lbs) to be a 4. He is not as athletic as Flannigan was, but has a much better looking shot form and shoots high 80's % from the freethrow line. Does not play with the physicality that Chris Moore does so it will be interesting to see who CBP goes with at the 3 spot. He is the type of player that can fill it up if playing with a group that is moving the ball around. Good spot up guy. Denver Jones: Offensively he's versatile at the 2 spot. Can shot the ball well, release is a little low, and put it on the floor to score. Utilizes his off hand (left) pretty well. Not sure he is as big as he is listed from watching film, and have concerns if he is athletic enough to play the same style he did at FIU. Consistent game to game. Only had two games he didn't score in double figures while leading FIU in scoring by a large margin last season. Averaged 20 pts a game on 14 attempts is pretty good. He is being billed as a pure shooter by a lot of media, but is much more balanced as a scorer. He only had two games last season where he made more 3s than 2s. He was first team all conference in C-USA last season. Chaney Johnson: Played the 5 mostly at UAH last season (or the post in a guard heavy lineup). Played against Auburn in our exhibition and got 14pts and 5rebs against our front line. More athletic than JW, but not sure he is as good a shooter. Plays with a good level of aggression that we have not had at the 4 spot in a while. Was conference player of the year at the D2 level. Will be interested to see how he makes the transition up in competition and over to the 4 spot. Holloway shows star potential while the others look to be solid role players. If Holloway and Donaldson play well at the point all of the role guys will be able to play at a higher level. If they don't there isn't a Chuma or Okoro that can bail us out. I expect Holloway to push Donaldson, Jones to likely start over KD, Baker-Mazara to start over Moore (at some point, maybe not to start the season) and Johnson to push Williams. Obviously this is off limited film so we will see.

Not sure I agree with this generally, but I guess it depends on what is average and what is elite and how you gauge it. Offensive teams can be streaky and lay eggs that cause losses to inferior teams. Defensive teams tend to be more consistent. I would like to see a team more like our final four team that isn't elite in scoring defense but is elite in creating turnovers and speeding up the pace of play. Its all relative. What is a lot of turnovers depends on pace, and how many you are also creating. I hope the offense is as good as advertised, but elite offense (and defense really) requires chemistry. WIth so many new parts, that can take time to build. Our starters making a bunch of shots in scrimmages vs the scout team doesn't tell us a whole lot.

I think Senda, the former 4 star is working at tackle with the second group right now.

I'm not close follower of recruiting as I think the projections of individual high school players is really difficult in football. However, when you look at a roster as a whole, CHF has plenty of tools to work with. Auburn is one of 16 schools that meet the "blue chip ratio" of tallent. Basically it means you have more 4 and 5 stars than you do 3 and 2 stars. Auburn barely makes that mark right now, but still it is only one of sixteen teams that does: "The list this year consists of, in order, Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, Texas A&M, Clemson, LSU, Texas, Oklahoma, Oregon, Notre, Dame, Florida, Miami, Penn State, Michigan, USC and Auburn." As you can see we are ahead of much of the SEC, 4th in the West. I don't think this is a championship contending roster, but it isn't completely crazy to hold a view that this team could win 9 games. https://247sports.com/article/blue-chip-ratio-2023-college-football-16-teams-who-can-actually-win-a-national-title-211217111/#:~:text=The SEC leads the way,has zero%2C and nobody close.

I piece of the puzzle that is harder to gauge and is currently largely unknown is can they defend? There's a million guys out there who can shoot, not many that can shoot and defend.

Jeremy Lin is another example.

Donaldson will not* play any at the 2. He's the closest thing to a pass first 1 we've had in a long while. I really liked some of the flashes he showed and was playing his best ball at the end of the season.

Other than being in Birmingham, this is not a good draw for us. Iowa is extremely efficient on offense and a top 30 offensive rebounding team. Houston is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. We will only go as far as our rebounding takes us. We have been getting dominated on the glass during our struggles and that is what I'm most concerned with looking at these matchups.

I agree with your sentiments. I love CBP and will generally give him the benefit of the doubt given what he has done and accomplished at AU. But he decided with the additions of Westry and Donaldson that he had what we needed at the guard spots and it hasn't panned out. Yes Westry got hurt, but even with that relying on KD or Zep as a primary contributor at the 2 in hindsight seems like a bad plan. You add in Traore's slow development and basically getting benched and we have no 2 guards producing, and a back up 4 that gives us very little in Moore. That is 40+ minutes per game of player time with very little production to show for it. That is basically like us playing 4 on 5 for an entire game. It appears he's locked in to this rotation, and shortening the playing time for the bench, but I'm holding out hope CBP finds a way to tweak the rotation to find some better chemistry.

He also got Westry and Donaldson. Prior to the season starting from the news and overseas trip, it appeared Westry was going to be a big factor in the guard rotation. Injury and how to work the rotation frustrated that plan, but lets not act like he didn't try to recruit other guards.

We are currently 19-9 and 9-6. Looking like we will likely finish 20-11 and 10-8 or so. Overall, the production of this team is close to what was expected. The way we got here is different from what I expected with Westry and Trahore having disappeared from the lineup. Moore at the four and Lior as a primary back up at the 3 were not expected and clearly not planned on by CBP. That being said, I don't see how anyone looks at this group as underperforming or as a bad season. I remember the years where I would have loved to be a bubble team or even make the NIT. Our next three games are tough but we should be in each of them. Can we get one or two of them before the SEC tourney begins? Currently, most have us firmly in the tourney, but I would feel a lot better if we could get at least one more W because of the quality of the remaining opponents.

Came across this. It shows our three most productive groupings over the whole season

I certainly don't think so. Should be favored in at least 2 maybe 3 games. Think we have a chance to upset UT at home as well. I'd say 2-3 more wins. Before tourneys that is.

Its hard to draw too much from this game, as we shot 50% from three and almost doubled them up in rebounds. Moore at the 4 didn't hurt us as Mizzou doesn't have much size and does not attack the rim. There were some positives beyond the shooting. The ball movement was good, not getting the ball stuck on one side of the floor as much. Lior was more aggressive offensively in the first half. He took two shots almost as soon as he went in the game. KD has been playing more under control even during our recent losses, and tonight he was under control AND making shots. Happy for him after all the heat he gets. Stange game with Green not making a single shot!. I don't think that is our recipe going forward, but its clear how much better we play offensively when he makes an intentional effort to move the ball more and not over dribble. Still have my doubts about Moore at the 4, but maybe this group is finding its rhythm with this lineup.

After our last stretch of games, even with the losses, we are UP to 18 in Kenpom. In many of those close losses we exceeded the anticipated metrics so we have been holding in the metrics. We moved up 10 spots after the win over Mizzou.

Im a huge CBP fan. That being said, while he is working his butt off this season, he has to take some of the blame for our struggles at times. Pretty much all of our struggles follow line up changes. Some of those changes were due to injury (Chris Moore going out and maybe Westry not being 100%), but some of them have just been his calls. Currently, I can't for the life of me understand the Chris Moore Playing the 4 move. While Yohan wasn't exactly killing it, he is a 4 man. Has the body and size for it and was showing signs of more confidence and improvement. Since Moore has been playing the floor we are getting NOTHING from him. I'm not convinced he's fully healthy but here are his numbers in the last three games combined: 32 mins played, 0-2 shooting, 0-2 threes, 3 rebounds, 0 steals, 1 assist, 1 block, 5 turnovers, 5 fouls. He's too small to defend the 4 and hasn't even attempted a two point shot in three games. We are playing 4-5. I like Chris Moore and he was contributing at the 3, but this current line-up is not it. Lior has been the back up 3 during this stretch, and I completely understand that, as CBP tries to get some offense on the floor. But he won't shoot the ball. He's getting 10 mins of time and taking 2 shots. If He's not going to shoot, he's not helping us. We have to get out of this small rotation. I knew we would struggle to find the fit this season. I expected a healthy Chance would find a role and the pieces would be coming together right about now. WIthout Chance contributing, we obviously don't have the pieces we expected to have, but CBP still has to keep mixing it up until we find it.

Best defensive is probably Zep/KD/AF/Williams/Broome. Best Closing is probably Green/KD/AF/Williams/Broome. I really wrestle with KD's game. I don't love putting him in these groups, but there just isn't a better option on the bench. I thought Chance would be by now and I like aspects of Donaldson's game, but he's not ready fully yet.

Our offense hasn't been great, but our defense is what is mostly costing us games. We aren't built to win games when giving up 75+ points. Putting Moore in so soon after injury at the 4 of all spots is a strange move by CBP. He doesn't look healthy and hasn't attempted a shot in his two games back. Talk about disrupting an offense and defense that was starting to get momentum. I know CBP is working his butt off to find the right rotation, but this is not it. Hopefully we get right vs UGA and he finds a rotation to stick with down the stretch.

Tonights game is going to be a good measuring stick on this AU team. Win or lose, there's a ton of games left to be played so it won't be a must win or anything. The reason I say it will be a good measure, is they are strong where we are strong, matchup-wise, and weak where we are weak. So we will likely be forced to perform better in our areas of weakness to win this game. They defend the 2 very well, but not the 3, can we make 3's? They offensive rebound very well and get to the foul line a ton, can we rebound better and not foul as much? They generate turnovers well, can we limit ours? This is a bad matchup for us. Have we grown enough to win this game. I'm glad this test is at home. Very interesting game tonight.

Oh they're out there. After any ugly game, there was plenty of chatter about it, and us not being a tourney team. My theory is that it is because bama has a squad and some folks can't just enjoy our own program. None-the-less, another good win for this group and a chance coming up to extend the home winning streak against a team near the top of the SEC standings.