JwgreDeux

Regarding my earlier comments on Jaylin Williams. Last night is a prime example of how he isn't a dramatically different player. He had a great game, perfect from the field! He had 17 at the half! He only took two shots in the second half. A closer, a killer, a alpha who is on a heater like he was is going to get 10 shots at minimum in the second half. THIS IS NOT A CRITICISM. Just an observation that he is a great college player, who's game is best in a "let the game come to me" context. That is who is he, and who he is going to be. He is being more productive, but I think it is a product of the quality of the team vs a dramatic change in his mentality.

You are doing a great disservice to Pearl and the team if you believe this. His flex scheme is well known as is the fact that he emphasizes read/react principles. Because of the freedom to read/react some wrongly assume there isnt a scheme to work within. There is and its a good one. We also have some of the best SLOB plays and BLOB plays out there that get buckets.

The irony here is that we had a mid second half let down and LSU closed it to 8 with 2:00 left. From there we closed well and won by 15. From that point (2:12 left in the game) I believe we scored on every possession. It was 73-81 us with 2:12 left to play and it ended 78-93, a 5-12 run in our favor down the stretch, included 6 made free throws. Again Donaldson was at the 1 to close the game out along with KD at the 2, CBM at the 3, Williams at 4 and Broome at the 5.

Vandy is not a good team. We are better in virtually every statistical category and obviously better by the eye test. The primary test this game poses is our mental toughness to play with a high level of intensity early in the game and get a good lead and remove any potential late game drama. I honestly think our depth really helps in this area, because as each rotational group goes in they really want to play well. I don't want to communicate that they are battling for more or less playing time, because I don't think that is it. The personalities on our second group help in this area as well. What I don't want to see is us mess around an play sloppy the way bama did vs mizzou las night. A good team playing poorly vs a bad team and having to make clutch shots late to put it away.

Let's be accurate about observations here. Flan got 30, 24, and 27 minutes per game his So, Jr. and Sr. seasons at Auburn. How many minutes does he deserve? He is shooting more, his percentage is down, averaging almost double the amount of attempts and about 6 more points per game against a very weak rated schedule thus far. I agree he could have been better utilized, and the guards he played with didn't put him in good spots, but its not like he is suddenly a different guy who is setting the world on fire. His assist to turnover margin was negative his entire career and is basically flat this year. He is not a ball handler.

I just don't think he was good enough to be an alpha. Didn't have the shot or the handle. What he does have is elite athleticism at his size which this team does not have. Looks like he found a good fit and Pearl found some good fits as well. Wish him all the best, except we when play them.

I'm not an NBA evaluation expert, but I would say that Holloway is the best prospect on the team currently due to his speed, handle and shooting. He needs a couple years of college though to grow and mature. Williams may be able to work his way on a roster as a defensive/utility player who can defend multiple positions, but he has to get lucky team culture, timing, fit etc. Broome is undersized to play 5 and not athletic enough to play the 4. I think he is a Euro league guy and can do well there for several years. Donaldson hasn't yet shown the burst of speed of creative ball handling yet to play in the NBA. Cardwell just seems slightly lacking in all areas to be an NBA guy. Not big by NBA standards, not enough offensive skill, not enough rebounding skill, not enough defensive skill. Really solid college player, but just not quite on NBA level. Again he could find his way on a roster with the right luck, timing, fit etc but doubt he gets drafted. CBM is basically the same, just at the 3. A bit lacking in all areas to be an NBA guy. Don't think anyone else is even worth discussing at this point from an NBA value standpoint. The reason I decided to weight in here is I think it is important for us to put some guys in the league. We aren't going to suddenly be Duke, UNC, Kentucky, type program cranking out draft picks each season. Bruce has done a good job building rosters with undersized guards and all, but I think to be able to recruit for 5 stars you have to have some star power from your program in the league.

We have 16 regular season games remaining. If we win all of those we would get a top 4 seed in the SEC tourney (double bye) and have at most 3 games in it. That would put us in the NCAA field without a playin game where the most wins possible en route to a championship is 6 games. If we win every game we play the remainder of the season we could get 25 more wins. It is possible we could go something like 14-2 (T-rank prediction) in the remaining regular season, win the SEC tourney with 3 wins and enter the NCAA with 17 wins, needing 5 to tie and 6 to break the all time AU wins record.

Brace yourselves for a few unpopular opinions and a few observations that are reasons for high expectations. Unpopular opinions: First, Jaylin Williams has not transformed into a superstar who can carry us to a final four. Jaylin is a nice player who is playing well and has a good tool box. He gives us what we need at the four, but he will not be the deciding factor about how far we go in the post season or if we challenge for the SEC title. This season is is averaging about 1 more point per game than last season, and about 2 more points than his sophomore season. His rebounds, assists, and blocks are less than 1 per game different as well. Since the App. St. game he has had 4 20+ point bursts, but he has also failed to reach double digits twice. On top of all that, his shot attempts are actually down this season from last season and his sophomore season (I'm excluding his stats from 2022 as he was in a role coming off the bench behind Jabari). Second, we haven't proven we can consistently close out games. The thing that has derailed several promising seasons recently has been our inability to close out games. We have not done enough to feel comfortable that we have fixed this issue. The A&M game is the only close game against a good opponent we have won, and they made numerous self inflicted errors down the stretch. So the jury is still out on this issue. It is a bit concerning that Holloway was on the bench to close out that game. Third, there is reason to be concerned about Aden Holloway. After starting the season by reach double figures in points in 4 of the first 5 games, he has failed to reach double digits in points in any of the last 5 games. Also of concern is that his assist numbers were down during that stretch as well. And most concerning of all is that I have not seen the same defensive tenacity from him that the rest of the team is playing with. In our first 10 games he was averaging 23.2 minutes per game; In the last 5 he is averaging 19.8. It is early in SEC play, but Aden is going to have to make some adjustments to his play or he will continue to lose minutes to Donaldson. Reasons for high expectations: First, the primary thing I was interested to see about the new comers was how they played defense. The good news is they play defense at a very high level. Jones and CBM in particular are much better than I expected on ball defenders, and that goes a long way in giving me reason to believe this group is legit. As mentioned Aden Holloway has room to improve in this area, but overall I'm happy with the new group's level of defense. Second, veteran guys making improvements. While Williams has not transformed himself, he is playing good basketball. His shooting percentages are better at the 2 and the 3 and are the primary reason he appears to be performing so much better. Also, Cardwell and KD are playing better basketball. Cardwell is averaging almost 2 more points per game and his offensive and defensive rebounding numbers are better with all other stats pretty much flat, while only getting about 90 seconds more playing time. KD is getting 4 less minutes (thankfully) but at the same time improving many of his stats. His turnovers are down, assists are up, rebounds are up, field goal % up, steals up, and only averaging 1 less point. Watching him play his energy is infectious and he has hurt us less this year and truly changed multiple games so far this season. Third, we might have the best quality depth in college basketball. We are 7th in the country in bench scoring per game at 37.4 pts per, only BYU has more among power conference teams (making us 1st in the SEC). Obviously we are well regarded in the advanced metrics sitting at 4th in KenPom, and looking at advanced metrics, 4 of our top 6 players (in the normal playing rotation) in +/- per game are bench players. CBM, Cardwell, Donaldson, and KD making that top six. Though we are early in SEC play, both of our wins has shown the value of our second group. Things to watch: How does Aden Holloway play the rest of the way. We can win a lot of games with him playing at his current level, but for us to truly be elite he has to take a step forward. He has to play more aggressive on offense going to the rim and creating. He shoots well, but his ball handling is what can truly be special about his game. We need him to take a step forward creating off the bounce. Can Chaney Johnson improve. Chaney hasn't shown much other than flashes of potential so far. He really hurt us in the A&M game and has been very inconsistent. I think he will continue to get minutes to rest Williams, but if he could be more than a minutes filler and contribute a bit more on offense and defense this bench gets even stronger. Can Broome continue his improved play. Broome is quietly having one of the most efficient seasons in college basketball. His improved ability to play away from the basket is creating more room for the offense to move/work and greatly benefiting this team. All while still being a physical paint presence on both ends of the floor. Broome struggled with bigger guys some last season. His improved ability to shoot and put the ball on the floor at the top of the key should give him addition tools when he faces those players this season. Can we keep the chemistry alive. The leading factor in our final four run was the team chemistry. Yes we had Chuma and hot shooting guards, but it was the chemistry that made each of those players better, and the team more than just the sum of its parts. We saw the lack of that chemistry derail the season we had Jabari/Kessler. This group has less top end talent than previous seasons, but can the current chemistry bond and develop us into something more than those teams that came up shorter than our expectations?

Correct. CBP is now officially tied for second most all time at AU and will move into sole second with a win this weekend. Currently, 22 wins away from first all time.

Without knowing exactly what was said, it looked like some home cooking to me. I couldn't tell you the last time i remember two techs getting called for trash talking (with no gesturing or contact etc). Maybe the refs saw how physical the game was and wanted to try and squash it, but still seemed cheap to me. I like the edge he plays with. He plays under control like Donaldson, with that edge.

11-2 is a solid non-conference and the computer rankings have us in great position entering SEC play. We don't have any big time wins but our margins are really good with the computers. So far the new players have all played pretty well. We need more for Jones if we want to contend for the league. While the production at the 1 has been good, and the assist to turnovers has been great, we still need more from Aden if we want to make a deep run this season. He has been very streaky at times and Donaldson the stabling presence. One area of concern that remains is closing out halves and games. We have not had to do it much, due to scoring margins, but I haven't seen enough to feel like we have it figured out. That is an area to watch as we go on the road to start SEC play.

Not to suggest we are worthy of final four consideration at this point, but we should be favored in all of our remaining games but two (using some the current metrics standings). IF the season played out anywhere close to that, we would be a 3 seed or better.

At this point in the season I have to say this group is better than I expected. Jones, CBM, and Johnson are more athletic than I anticipated. CBM is starting to come on and I think Jones will soon. Johnson is just a bigger more athletic CMo right now but I am intrigued to see what else he can do. Broome is improved and we have two very good point guards. I'm not sure yet where we fit into the landscape of the SEC at this point, but I think we are looking like a dark horse candidate to challenge for the league IF (big if) this group continues to grow. We shot the ball like crap and blew out an ACC team, not just won, ran them out of the gym with defense.

CMo is a valuable part of the team, but his minutes/role needs to change now. CBM is averaging more of everything in less minutes and he deserves increased minutes. I think his ceiling is higher than what we have seen and better things are yet to come from him. CMo has shown us what his abilities are and we can expect him to play with effort, toughness, and heart. He is not a shot maker, ball handler, or creator and needs his minutes bumped down to closer to 10 than the 20 he is getting now. From what he has shown us, there is no reason to expect a big step forward at this point from CMo. Similar to KD, he just has not shown growth and his role has to shrink as others emerge.

Not to damper things, but Notre Dame is bad. Terrible roster, new coach/system just not a good team. We did have some moments of good ball movement and several guys that played well. The areas that I was looking for saw some different lineups, but again we struggled to close a half. The last few minutes of the first half were our worst of the game. The lineup CBP had on the floor at the time was Holloway, KD, Moore, Chaney, and Caldwell. That lineup is clearly not our closing lineup and I could go without ever seeing it again. CBP mixed up the lineups in the second half and it was tough to really make any conclusions as we just outclassed them so much from a roster standpoint. One thing I don't like is for players to go off against us. Even though we held them to 50's in total points, they had a kid come off the bench and put up 18pts and 11rebs. Both career highs I believe. At some point we need to make it a thing of pride not to let a kid go off even if we are way up. Rarely do elite defensive teams allows this kind of thing. We are not elite defensively, but if we want to be got to stop this. One other area we should have been better in this game is on the glass. No reason we were trailing in rebounds most of this game until late. Nice to run a bad team out of the gym, but plenty to clean up as we look to the next one.

I will watching the lineups closely. Who plays together at the end of halves, does CBP start mixing and matching more.

We are the best team at this showcase and need these wins. Likely will be quad 2 and 3 games so we don't need to drop them. All of them have decent name values, but none rate well in the metrics right now. St. Bonaventure (99 Kenpom), Ok. St. (79 Kenpom), Notre Dame (201 Kenpom).

I think we will play 10 for now and the foreseeable future. As others have said, it won't be equally split, and that is CBP's challenge with new faces. I like what I have seen from most of the new faces. Jones and Baker-Mazara seem to know who they are and will settle in quickly I think. Chaney is more uncertain and Holloway has been a little erratic. He shows much more potential to create than any guard we have had the last two seasons, which makes me optimistic about him as he settles in. May take a while though. CMo is what he is. He is a physical guy and I think we will see his minutes drop over the course of the next few games as Baker-Mazara cements himself at the 3. I think we know what we have out of the returners and the only one I think that can take a real step forward in their game is Donaldson. The issue we have right now is CMo, Chaney and Cardwell don't offer much scoring off the bench. So while we have 10 guys, we only have 7 that are really on the floor to score, that is an issue. Because of that, CBP is going to have to limit the amount of time those three, or even two of the three, are on the floor together. Cardwell has proven his worth on defense, rebounding, running the floor, and rolling to the hoop. Chaney has shown a pretty good aptitude for rebounding so far trailing only Broome in rebounds, but his shooting percentage is by far the worst at 21%. IMO we need to limit the amount of time that Chaey and Cardwell play together. Chaney needs his minutes when Broome is on the floor and Cardwell needs his when Williams is at the four. I think CBP has some options with our guards that we haven't had recently. If we want to go small, we could slide Baker-Mazara to the four at 6'7'' and athletic, slide Jones to the 3 at 6'4'' and play Donaldson and Holloway together. I was thinking about that lineup at the end of the Baylor game, if you add Broome in to give us maximum scoring options.

With 4 minutes to play in the game we were leading 77-72 here are out last possessions of the game: J. Williams turnover (3:46 left) still 77-72 (we commit a foul and they make 2 free throws now 77-74) A. Holloway turnover (3:11 left) 77-74 (they make a 3 in a secondary break now 77-77) D. Jones turnover (2:48) 77-77 (they get a transition dunk now they lead 77-79) D. Jones shot blocked on a drive still down (2:30 left) 77-79 (we commit a foul they make 2 free throws no 77-81) * at this point they have scored 9 points in four trips down the court to our 0 in 1:30 seconds of game time! A. Holloway missed on a drive, Broome can't get the put back (1:57 left) 77-81 (they go down and make a shot now lead 77-83) A. Holloway scores on a drive (1:13 left) 79-83 (we go down and get a stop) A. Holloway misses long three (0:39 left) 79-83 (we go down, Broome commits a foul and gets into the double tech situation and they make 2 free throws 79-85) 0:27 left D. Jones makes a 3 and we close the gap to 82-85 with 0:19 left (we have to foul they make both free throws and that's essentially it 82-87) they add one more free throw to get the final of 82-88. Outscored 16-5 in final 4 minutes. I think the thing that this does remind me of last year is our inability to create good shots down the stretch. We would see our small guards struggle to finish at the basket over and over. It was our achilles heel. It will be something to watch at the end of halves early this season to see how CBP mixes lineups and play calls to improve the way we finish. Combine that with them attempting 9 more free throws and making 10 more we had a smaller lead than we should have, and either turned it over or didn't create good shots down the stretch. This is not last year's team and there is no reason to assume we this will become the norm for this group. However, it is something to watch.

It’s difficult to close out wins against good teams. If you’re not good from the free-throw line. We played good enough from the floor to win that game and gave it up at the line. some of our older players have to adjust to the new way. They’re going to call the block charge which caused some of our excessive fouls. Also, we had a handful of really good defensive possessions that Baylor ended up scoring on on a scramble either late in the shot clock, or after a pass or something was deflected. That should get cleaned up as our guys get more accustomed to playing with one another. A lot to be encouraged after that game.

Apparently we did it quietly

The modern game doesn't really value that. Coaches want layups or threes. Few coaches will green light guys to shoot a lot of mid-range shots. Broome came back to expand his game outside for the draft. It is what it is. Also, I would look for more dribble drives this season with the change to the way they are calling block/charge calls giving the tie to the offensive player this season.

WIth as much as he talks about making history, I can't see him hanging it up before he gets the all time wins lead at AU. That should be this season and one more at minimu.

Some post more over here than on the football forum. Good observation about Tre. Interested to see if he can play more like he did at the end of the season last year. He was really coming on. Also, can Chad rebound is something to watch. WIth our history of small guards when we lost rebounding battles badly, it was usually due to weak rebounding from the wings. Moore is tough and will do it, but if Chad can rebound he will get more minutes.