StatTiger 3,188 Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Statistical Match ups to watch for Thursday Night… Auburn is No. 3 in generating impact plays on offense vs. K-State, ranked No. 22 defensively in the ratio of impact plays allowed. K-State is No. 35 on offense vs. Auburn, ranked No. 105 on defense. Edge to Kansas State Auburn is No. 19 offensively in yards per play on first down vs. K-State, ranked No. 48 on defense. K-State is No. 62 on offense vs. Auburn, ranked No. 96 on defense. Very slight edge to K-State Auburn’s offense is No. 1 in third-down offense vs. K-State, ranked No. 39 on defense. K-State is No. 22 on offense vs. Auburn, ranked No. 26 on defense. Edge to Auburn Auburn is No. 6 in pass-efficiency on 3rd-down offense vs. K-State ranked No. 5 in pass-efficiency defense on third-down. K-State is No. 97 in pass-efficiency offense on third-down vs. Auburn, ranked No. 2 on defense. Major Edge to Auburn Auburn is No. 5 on offense in Redzone TD Pct. vs. K-State, ranked No. 101 on defense. K-State is No. 11 on offense vs. Auburn, ranked No. 35 on defense. Major edge to Auburn Auburn is No. 69 in tackles for loss vs. K-State, ranked No. 10 in allowing TFL. K-State is 85th in tackles for loss vs. Auburn, also ranked No. 10 in allowing TFL. Slight Edge to Auburn Kansas State is No. 26 in Kick-Return Offense vs. Auburn, ranked No. 102 in KR-Defense. Auburn is No. 75 in KR-Offense vs. K-State, ranked No. 8 in KR-Defense. Edge to Kansas State Auburn is ranked No. 4 in Punt-return offense vs. K-State, ranked No. 123 in PR-Defense. K-State is No. 28 in PR-Offense vs. Auburn, ranked No. 51 in PR-defense. Edge to Auburn Auburn is No. 6 in run-offense (YPC) vs. K-State, ranked No. 27. K-State is No. 35 in run-offense (YPC) vs. Auburn, ranked No. 26 on defense. Edge to Auburn Auburn is No. 8 in yards per play on offense vs. K-State, ranked No. 33 on defense. K-State is No. 45 on offense vs. Auburn, also ranked No. 33 on defense. Edge to Auburn Auburn is No. 17 in pass-efficiency offense vs. K-State, ranked No. 58 in PE-Defense. K-State is No. 57 in PE-Offense vs. Auburn, ranked No. 54 in PE-Defense. Edge to Auburn Both teams are tied for No. 43 in turnover-margin War Eagle! (Auburn 37, Kansas State 20) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUbritt 611 Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 War Eagle! Let's hope these stats improve throughout the year. I'm surprised at our defense being ranked so low in terms of allowing impact plays, to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Threedog79 0 Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 As always, good job Stat. Have you ever done a statistical prediction, based on other statistical analysis, of who will win a game? E.g. AU has a 59% probability vs. Team X. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triangletiger 1,599 Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Interesting. Thanks for your efforts, Stat. However, we have to acknowledge that this early in the season the data sets upon which these statistics are based are still rather small. There is quite a bit of parametric uncertainty in the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarEagle84 0 Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 As always, good job Stat. Have you ever done a statistical prediction, based on other statistical analysis, of who will win a game? E.g. AU has a 59% probability vs. Team X. Don't know if this is what you want, but ESPN's FPI (Football Power Index) gives us an 87% chance of beating KSU. For comparison, FSU has a 77% chance of beating Clemson. This is the first year they've used the FPI, so I have no clue how accurate it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boisnumber1 2,820 Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Interesting. Thanks for your efforts, Stat. However, we have to acknowledge that this early in the season, the data sets upon which these statistics are based is still rather small. There is quite a bit of parametric uncertainty in the data. This. 2 games in, no common opponents...interesting numbers, but absolutely meaningless at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Auburn4life 24 Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Good info. If our kicker kicks it out of the end zone most of the game then to me the Kick-Return Edge goes to Auburn because KSt won't have much opportunity to return the ball. Also with the Punt return stat. I can see Bray doing really well and maybe evening scoring another TD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravejd 3,270 Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Yikes, I hope that yards per play ranking and kick off coverage ranking improve greatly as the year goes on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tampa Tiger 30 Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Great job Stat! This game tomorrow really is giving me cause for concern, but I'm not sure if everyone else is feeling the same..... I hope Gus has the men ready to play! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexava 6,973 Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Looks like rain again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Auburn4life 24 Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 yea 30% chance of t-storms at 6:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McLoofus 35,182 Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Great job Stat! This game tomorrow really is giving me cause for concern, but I'm not sure if everyone else is feeling the same..... I hope Gus has the men ready to play! A lot of folks are feeling a lot of concern. I like what I'm hearing from coaches and players, though. They seem to grasp that this is a massive moment in our season and that we are playing a very good team. Combine that with the experience we have at most positions- particularly the incredible experience we have on offense, which is already our bread and butter- and I don't think you have to worry about the team's focus. We have superior athletes at almost every position. Significantly superior, in many cases. We're coming off a bye and 2 relatively easy games. There's a chance we're a little rusty, and we haven't really been tested, but we're healthy and we've had time to study the opponent. I see this as mostly positive. It would take a far superior coaching effort from the other sideline for us to lose this game IMO. I fully believe that Bill Snyder is capable of out-coaching Gus Malzahn in any given game, simply because of how much more experience he has in college football. But do I think he's a vastly better game day coach than Gus? Absolutely not. Gus has shown to be not only a savant with a playbook, but also a great motivator and leader of a football program. I like our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metalsinger418 88 Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Good info. If our kicker kicks it out of the end zone most of the game then to me the Kick-Return Edge goes to Auburn because KSt won't have much opportunity to return the ball. Also with the Punt return stat. I can see Bray doing really well and maybe evening scoring another TD. They did give up a PR touchdown against Iowa State last game. I think Bray should definitely have some room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Threedog79 0 Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Thanks WarEagle84, that is what I was looking for. Although, I would love to see Stat putting some %s down like that in trying to calculate who is to win games when AU plays. Thanks again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatTiger 3,188 Posted September 17, 2014 Author Share Posted September 17, 2014 Interesting. Thanks for your efforts, Stat. However, we have to acknowledge that this early in the season, the data sets upon which these statistics are based is still rather small. There is quite a bit of parametric uncertainty in the data. This. 2 games in, no common opponents...interesting numbers, but absolutely meaningless at this point. Simply not true. Don't focus on the national rankings but the comparison between the 2 teams. Despite facing the more challenging schedule, auburn still holds a major advantage over Kstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eagle Eye 7 2,535 Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Good Job Stat. I do think we have played a much tougher 2 opponents than has K State. I also do not think they can go with us all four quarters. I do expect them to give us their best shot, but I expect it to only be a glancing blow. They should keep it interesting the first quarter and a half, then AU breaks away. Big night for O&B in the limelight. JMO. WDE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJBas 4 Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Thanks again for your efforts, Stat. I know these stats flucuate wildly this early in the season but it's still interesting. We do need to improve in almost every area if we're to have the season we're all hoping for, but if Malzahn can keep this team improving every week at the rate he did last year then he could get them there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatTiger 3,188 Posted September 18, 2014 Author Share Posted September 18, 2014 Thanks again for your efforts, Stat. I know these stats flucuate wildly this early in the season but it's still interesting. We do need to improve in almost every area if we're to have the season we're all hoping for, but if Malzahn can keep this team improving every week at the rate he did last year then he could get them there. Yep... no doubt the rankings will change as more games are played. The national rankings are meaningless unless you consider the level of competition to make the comparison between K-State and Auburn. For example.... K-State is allowing only 87-yards rushing per game but their numbers are inflated based on the level of competition. Yes, they held Iowa State to 105-yards rushing but the Cyclones are only averaging 96.3 yards per game on the ground. On the flip side, Arkansas is averaging 362-yds per game rushing and Auburn held them to 153-yards. The fact that Auburn holds the advantage in the majority of the categories I posted, speaks volumes when you consider AU has played the more challenging schedule through 2 games. With that being said, I expect K-State to play hard and I have a lot of respect for what Bill Snyder has accomplished at K-State. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.