StatTiger 3,188 Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 I have no doubt Hugh Freeze and Philip Montgomery want better QB play in 2023, but Freeze has "team" oriented goals for improvement. Yes, QB play can influence the outcome of games, but simply fielding a better team overall will impact the win percentage. Auburn was horrible against the run during 2022, and the lack of DL rotation played a major role in the decline. Run defense allowed only 3.8 yards per rush during the first half but 5.3 yards during the second half. That issue is being addressed now with the goal of rotating 8-9 DL during a game. Consider the following... Since 1960, Auburn has compiled a 221-10-0 record (.957) when they accomplish the following during a game. 1) Rush for at least 125 yards, 2) Hold the opposition to under 200 yards rushing, 3) complete at least 50 percent of their passes, and 4) Average at least 7.0 yards per attempt. Drop the standards to the following... 1) Rush for at least 100-yards, 2) complete at least 45 percent of passes, 3) Average at least 6.5 yards per pass attempt, and 4) Hold the opponent to under 200-yards rushing. Auburn is 266-23-0 (.920). Average QB play + consistent run offense, and decent run defense can easily equate to becoming bowl eligible. Are these reasonable goals for 2023? I think so. Last year the pass offense reached the goal of 45% completion pct and 6.5 yards per pass attempt during 6 of 12 games. Auburn rushed for at least 101 yards in all six games BUT, allowed over 200-yards rushing during 3 of those 6 games. So... can Freeze-Montgomery improve the pass offense to 8 games with of 45% completion Pct and 6.5 yards per attempt? I think so because it would not require major improvement to reach that goal. Can the run defense give up only 1-2 two-hundred yard games instead of four? Auburn rushed for at least 100-yards during 10 of 12 games and I believe they can duplicate it during 2023. Auburn held 8 of 12 opponents to under 200-yards rushing. Improving the run defense to 10 of 12 games is not a big ask. From 2000-2019, Auburn allowed 200-yards rushing 2.5 times per season. During the last three seasons (2000-2022), Auburn allowed the opponent to rush for over 200-yards on 4 occasions each season. Having a better run defense in 2023 can make a major impact. I don't believe it is asking too much to expect the run defense to allow over 200 yards rushing only 2 times out of 12. The trend of accomplishing all four during the same game has been 39.3 percent from 1961-2022, or an average of 4-5 times per game. The 2022 team accomplished the feat only once. It has happened only 32 percent from 2018-2022, winning 80 percent of their games when they accomplished the feat. Can they do it five times in 2023? The 2006 team did it in 8 of 12 regular season games. That was a team not overwhelmingly talented that suffered through injuries to key starters but still won 11 of 13 games. I always thought that season was Tuberville's best "coaching" season. Auburn should win all four non-conference games in 2023. Even if they just maintain their win percentage in conference play the last five years, that is three additional wins and a 7-5 regular season. A slight improvement in pass offense and a more consistent run defense could result in 4 conference wins and an 8-4 regular season finish. Again, the coaching staff is working towards a better pass offense in 2023, but they are also striving in putting a better overall product on the field during year #1. Thoughts? SEC Comparison 2018-2022: SEC average for the last five years is reaching all four goals during the same game, 45.0 pct of the time, with a win pct of .857 when doing so. Auburn is currently 11th in the SEC. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerPAC 987 Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 just to say "complete 45% of passes" is mindboggling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatTiger 3,188 Posted March 28, 2023 Author Share Posted March 28, 2023 10 minutes ago, TigerPAC said: just to say "complete 45% of passes" is mindboggling Separately, each of those 4 goals doesn’t seem difficult to obtain. The obvious key is doing all four during the same game and doing all four consistently. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUpreacherman22 3,898 Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 3 hours ago, StatTiger said: Separately, each of those 4 goals doesn’t seem difficult to obtain. The obvious key is doing all four during the same game and doing all four consistently. Right! The fact that only 3 teams in the best conference in the sport accomplished all 4 of these goals in 50% or more of their games let’s you know it’s not easy to accomplish all 4 in a game! Thanks, as always, Stat!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toddc 13,194 Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 4 hours ago, StatTiger said: I have no doubt Hugh Freeze and Philip Montgomery want better QB play in 2023, but Freeze has "team" oriented goals for improvement. Yes, QB play can influence the outcome of games, but simply fielding a better team overall will impact the win percentage. Auburn was horrible against the run during 2022, and the lack of DL rotation played a major role in the decline. Run defense allowed only 3.8 yards per rush during the first half but 5.3 yards during the second half. That issue is being addressed now with the goal of rotating 8-9 DL during a game. Consider the following... Since 1960, Auburn has compiled a 221-10-0 record (.957) when they accomplish the following during a game. 1) Rush for at least 125 yards, 2) Hold the opposition to under 200 yards rushing, 3) complete at least 50 percent of their passes, and 4) Average at least 7.0 yards per attempt. Drop the standards to the following... 1) Rush for at least 100-yards, 2) complete at least 45 percent of passes, 3) Average at least 6.5 yards per pass attempt, and 4) Hold the opponent to under 200-yards rushing. Auburn is 266-23-0 (.920). Average QB play + consistent run offense, and decent run defense can easily equate to becoming bowl eligible. Are these reasonable goals for 2023? I think so. Last year the pass offense reached the goal of 45% completion pct and 6.5 yards per pass attempt during 6 of 12 games. Auburn rushed for at least 101 yards in all six games BUT, allowed over 200-yards rushing during 3 of those 6 games. So... can Freeze-Montgomery improve the pass offense to 8 games with of 45% completion Pct and 6.5 yards per attempt? I think so because it would not require major improvement to reach that goal. Can the run defense give up only 1-2 two-hundred yard games instead of four? Auburn rushed for at least 100-yards during 10 of 12 games and I believe they can duplicate it during 2023. Auburn held 8 of 12 opponents to under 200-yards rushing. Improving the run defense to 10 of 12 games is not a big ask. From 2000-2019, Auburn allowed 200-yards rushing 2.5 times per season. During the last three seasons (2000-2022), Auburn allowed the opponent to rush for over 200-yards on 4 occasions each season. Having a better run defense in 2023 can make a major impact. I don't believe it is asking too much to expect the run defense to allow over 200 yards rushing only 2 times out of 12. The trend of accomplishing all four during the same game has been 39.3 percent from 1961-2022, or an average of 4-5 times per game. The 2022 team accomplished the feat only once. It has happened only 32 percent from 2018-2022, winning 80 percent of their games when they accomplished the feat. Can they do it five times in 2023? The 2006 team did it in 8 of 12 regular season games. That was a team not overwhelmingly talented that suffered through injuries to key starters but still won 11 of 13 games. I always thought that season was Tuberville's best "coaching" season. Auburn should win all four non-conference games in 2023. Even if they just maintain their win percentage in conference play the last five years, that is three additional wins and a 7-5 regular season. A slight improvement in pass offense and a more consistent run defense could result in 4 conference wins and an 8-4 regular season finish. Again, the coaching staff is working towards a better pass offense in 2023, but they are also striving in putting a better overall product on the field during year #1. Thoughts? SEC Comparison 2018-2022: SEC average for the last five years is reaching all four goals during the same game, 45.0 pct of the time, with a win pct of .857 when doing so. Auburn is currently 11th in the SEC. This is awesome Stat! Thanks for your hard work on these. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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