Expert disputes storms' link to global warming

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COLUMBIA - As population continues to grow on the coast and people build more structures, losses from hurricanes will go up drastically but it isn't because of global warming, one of the world experts on the topic said at a University of South Carolina appearance Thursday.

Chris Landsea, science and operations director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami, said the notion that global warming is causing an increase in hurricanes gained widespread attention after the stormy seasons of 2004 and 2005.

But that perception is wrong and the statistics don't bear it out, Landsea told about 200 students and professors in the auditorium at USC's geography building.

Further study continues to show that hurricane activity occurs in cycles of 20 to 45 years, he said. Even though the seasons of 2004, when four hurricanes bashed Florida, and 2005, when Katrina devastated New Orleans and neighboring parts of the Gulf Coast, seemed shocking, they were no more intense than some storms in the early part of the 20th century and in the 1930s, Landsea said.

The 1926-1935 period was worse for hurricanes than the past 10 years and 1900-1905 was almost as bad, he said. So it is not true that there is a trend of more and stronger hurricanes.

"It's not a trend, it's a cycle: 20-45 years quiet, 20-45 years busy," Landsea said. Scientists currently have no idea what causes the time period.

What makes the recent storms seem worse is the amount of damage, and that is because of the amount of people and their structures on the coast, elements that barely existed in the early 1900s.

The 1,500 people who died in Katrina probably would have lived if they had evacuated, and that is the lesson for coastal residents, Landsea said.

"What happened in Katrina, we're worried could happen in other states," he said.

Global warming is causing hurricanes to be stronger, but it is such a small increase it is almost immeasurable, Landsea said.

The warming will make hurricanes "5 percent stronger 100 years from now," he said. "We can't measure it if it's that small."

Landsea said there are several reasons why many people, including prominent scientists, think that hurricanes are increasing and their intensity is increasing.

One of the major reasons is the poor records from earlier years, he said. People know what hit land, but there aren't always records available about storms that did not hit land. Not having those in the mix makes it appear that more are happening now, Landsea said.

Even after satellite recording began in 1965, there have been constant upgrades in the technology and scientists have found that even with the satellites they miss some storms, he said.

"An Inconvenient Truth," the book by former Vice President Al Gore, also persuaded some people that global warming is contributing to hurricane frequency and strength, Landsea said.

But facts that also refute the theory are that tropical storms are weakening and becoming less frequent in all oceans except the Atlantic, he said.

If the storms were caused by global warming, they would be getting worse everywhere, he said.

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