Kerry Campaign Weighs Shake-Up

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CAMPAIGN JOURNAL

By ALBERT R. HUNT

Kerry Campaign Weighs Shake-Up

As Bush Gains Upper Hand in Race

August 31, 2004 2:40 p.m.

As the Bush campaign commands an exquisitely directed convention, the faltering Kerry campaign might be on the verge of a major shake-up.

Ever since the Boston convention, the Bush campaign has dominated the agenda, putting the Democratic nominee on the defensive. While polls still show a close race, everything is tilting in the GOP direction, a movement that almost surely will be enhanced by a successful New York convention.

Dispirited Democrats -- prominent senators, top fundraisers, even a few Kerry confidants -- have told the candidate, who is in Nantucket, that high-level changes are imperative. A few very well-connected Democrats report something will occur in the next few days. One person who might assume more control is Joe Lockhart, a former press secretary to Bill Clinton and a respected public-relations figure, but one who has almost no experience in the high-stakes world of presidential campaigns. Another possibility: veteran Democratic politico John Sasso, currently at the Democratic National Committee.

If there is a change -- Sen. Kerry privately is said to be "bouncing off the walls" in frustration -- it has to be imminent as the eight-week campaign is in full swing by Labor Day. "We have 48 hours," acknowledges an insider.

(Tuesday afternoon, the Kerry campaign announced some staff additions. Mr. Lockhart was named a senior adviser, and Joel Johnson, a former Clinton administration staffer, was appointed director of rapid response. But insiders say there might be more moves in the next few days.)

The Kerry campaign, like most, ultimately reflects the candidate. The cautious indecisiveness and occasional vacillations have become Kerry trademarks.

Leading Democrats describe a command structure often frozen -- or at least tempered -- by too many chefs, a too-heavy reliance on polls or focus groups and an aversion to risks. As a result, the message often is muddled and the reaction to hard-hitting attacks from Republicans often is slow and unconvincing.

This has been most pronounced on national security. The response to the supposedly independent Swift Boat Veterans attacking Sen. Kerry's war record has been particularly ineffective. With that and an onslaught of negative commercials from the Bush campaign, public attitudes about John Kerry as a commander in chief or leader in a war against terrorism have eroded in recent weeks.

By contrast, the Republican effort is proceeding almost perfectly according to plan. The John McCain and Rudy Giuliani defense of President Bush as a national-security leader -- in comparison to Sen. Kerry -- was an effective launch, and Tuesday night a mainstream domestic appeal will be offered by First Lady Laura Bush and California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Top Republican operatives have spelled out the political scenario to key supporters: Mr. Bush will come out of New York with a high single-digit lead in the polls, maintain about a five-point lead into the presidential debates, hold his own in those venues, and win a reasonably convincing re-election. Implicit in this strategy is control of the dialogue and agenda during the fall campaign, keeping Sen. Kerry on the defensive and making him as much if not more than President Bush the issue in voters' minds.

GOP delegates, many of whom were nervous a short few weeks ago, find this a very credible scenario; they have moved to the cautiously optimistic level now and seem headed higher.

This wouldn't be the first time the Massachusetts senator has shuffled his top staff. Late last fall, Mr. Kerry fired campaign manager Jim Jordan and brought in Mary Beth Cahill, chief of staff for ally Sen. Ted Kennedy, to revive his floundering campaign.

The Democrats' picture also is strikingly similar to the situation the party faced the last time it sought to unseat a President Bush. In June 1992, Bill Clinton's campaign was cratering; he was running third in the polls, behind President Bush and Independent candidate Ross Perot, the message was muddled, high-level conference calls involved dozens of campaign chiefs as there were no clear lines of authority. Hillary Clinton stepped in, tapped James Carville to be in charge of everyone, and Mr. Clinton went on to win in November.

Democrats, desperate and furious at the Kerry campaign, hope that is a model. There are, however, several differences. That was June and this is almost September. And Mr. Carville was a highly skilled, experienced political operative.

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DEMOCRATIC TAKE: Rudy Giuliani was a bigger hit than John McCain among the delegates, but the Arizona Republican may have been more effective with viewers: "Rudy is a good showman," said Florida Congressman Jim Davis, who watched the speech on cable television at home. "But he spoke too long and was a little bit too much New York." ...Earlier big Georgia-based companies, including Coca-Cola, Home Depot and Delta Air Lines -- held a bash in SoHo for Zell Miller, who will speak for George Bush in New York and is head of "Democrats for Bush." Twelve years ago he gave the keynote speech for Bill Clinton. Disgruntled Democrats have launched a Web site www.zellout.com petitioning the lawmaker to switch parties.

Write to Albert R. Hunt at al.hunt@wsj.com

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