Playoff nightmare scenario

[DAG 33,980]

30 minutes ago, RHN1975 said:

bama's one loss will have come to a top 4 team if we win this weekend and OSU would have lost to a top 4 team and one that doesn't even sniff the top 30. It would be like bama lost to us and Texas A&M. No way they get in over bama.

They won't. Bama is set to be in if OU or Wisconsin loses.

[80Tiger 899]

41 minutes ago, AU Is Gold said:

The difference is the strength of Wisconsin's opponents. I don't care what the committee has said about conference champion weight. I see no way Ohio st. gets in over Alabama.

What if Wisky loses to OSU by 1 to 3 pts in a close game? They would have one loss to a very good team. What is the difference between that and UA?  I just can't see the justification for a team that lost their last game of the season and did not make their conference championship game. You are penalizing teams for making conference championships. Just a few years ago they exexcluded someone because the conference did not have a championship game.

[AU Is Gold 410]

6 minutes ago, 80Tiger said:

What if Wisky loses to OSU by 1 to 3 pts in a close game? They would have one loss to a very good team. What is the difference between that and UA?  I just can't see the justification for a team that lost their last game of the season and did not make their conference championship game. You are penalizing teams for making conference championships. Just a few years ago they exexcluded someone because the conference did not have a championship game.

I'm just telling ya'll what will happen. Wisconsin or Oklahoma lose, Alabama is in.

[LKEEL75 2,566]

8 minutes ago, 80Tiger said:

What if Wisky loses to OSU by 1 to 3 pts in a close game? They would have one loss to a very good team. What is the difference between that and UA?  I just can't see the justification for a team that lost their last game of the season and did not make their conference championship game. You are penalizing teams for making conference championships. Just a few years ago they exexcluded someone because the conference did not have a championship game.

I think it would be poetic justice (after last year) if OSU beats Wis by 3 or so and they put Wis in and leave OSU out.

[DAG 33,980]

13 minutes ago, 80Tiger said:

What if Wisky loses to OSU by 1 to 3 pts in a close game? They would have one loss to a very good team. What is the difference between that and UA?  I just can't see the justification for a team that lost their last game of the season and did not make their conference championship game. You are penalizing teams for making conference championships. Just a few years ago they exexcluded someone because the conference did not have a championship game.

The difference is Wisconsin has the worst SOS of all.

[wareaglegirl466 1]

What is the scenario that must happen for ua NOT to sneak in? I, like most in this state, am ready for that fanbase to be knocked back down to reality! 

[Linayus 676]

Clemson loses. Wisconsin loses. Oklahoma loses.

1. Auburn
2. Alabama
3. Miami
4. TCU

8 team playoff is finalized as the Iron Bowl rematch sets the world on fire.

[DAG 33,980]

1 hour ago, 80Tiger said:

I think Bird is right. Committee has talked a lot about the weight they give conference champions. Also what is the difference of UA losing their last game of the season vs Wisconsin losing their last game of the season (if OSU wins) besides 1 week? Last week was the first round of the playoffs, this week with conference championships is the second round of the playoffs.  If you lose you are out.

Yes, they talked about it and did the complete opposite last year. They have shown that if they feel one of the conference champions isn't one of the four best teams, they won't get in. I hear people bring up tOSU SOS. Okay, they also lose to an unranked Iowa team. Badly, I might add. Are we just dismissing that because they are about to face an untested Wisconsin team, whom they have a very good chance of beating?

[lionheartkc 6,150]

6 minutes ago, wareaglegirl466 said:

What is the scenario that must happen for ua NOT to sneak in? I, like most in this state, am ready for that fanbase to be knocked back down to reality! 

Statistically, as long as Oklahoma beats TCU (again), bama is on the outside looking in. As to what the committee will do... all bets are off.

[DAG 33,980]

9 minutes ago, wareaglegirl466 said:

What is the scenario that must happen for ua NOT to sneak in? I, like most in this state, am ready for that fanbase to be knocked back down to reality! 

Everybody who is in the top four NOT in the SEC must win this weekend. Oh and I guess whoever wins the ACC as well will be in. Originally I was questioning Miami but they will be in.

[AuburnTiger4Life 2,225]

3 minutes ago, wareaglegirl466 said:

What is the scenario that must happen for ua NOT to sneak in? I, like most in this state, am ready for that fanbase to be knocked back down to reality! 

Wisky and Oklahoma winning... the easiest way is  for TCU to beat Oklahoma (I can't see happening). If osu beats Wisconsin it would be pretty close. Bama might only have one loss but their resumè isn't exactly great. Ohio state would have three top 15 wins and in my opinion that should be good enough 

[wareaglegirl466 1]

Just now, lionheartkc said:

Statistically, as long as Oklahoma beats TCU (again), bama is on the outside looking in. As to what the committee will do... all bets are off.

Thanks! Not what I would like to hear, but I pray that this year they're on the outside looking in, especially at the Tigers playing for all the marbles!

 

[lionheartkc 6,150]

4 minutes ago, DAG said:

Yes, they talked about it and did the complete opposite last year. They have shown that if they feel one of the conference champions isn't one of the four best teams, they won't get in. I hear people bring up tOSU SOS. Okay, they also lose to an unranked Iowa team. Badly, I might add. Are we just dismissing that because they are about to face an untested Wisconsin team, whom they have a very good chance of beating?

I'm with you, you have to look at the bad losses along with the good wins. 

Honestly, if I was on the committee and there is a big shake-up this weekend, I'd be asking the committee to strongly look at an undefeated UCF. Is it fair to hold them out after they ran the table (granted a weak table... but it did include 2 top 25 teams), when teams are getting in with losses to 5 and 8 loss teams? It's not like they have the option of playing a power 5 schedule, and everyone that did have the option blew it bad, at least once, except for Auburn and bama.

[looney 794]

1 hour ago, lionheartkc said:

Can you imagine the meltdown in West Alabama if two 2-loss teams gets in and their beloved bama doesn't?  

Thank you for this visual.

I will now do my best to imagine it... and there will be a smile on my face.

[DAG 33,980]

1 minute ago, lionheartkc said:

I'm with you, you have to look at the bad losses along with the good wins. 

Honestly, if I was on the committee and there is a big shake-up this weekend, I'd be asking the committee to strongly look at an undefeated UCF. Is it fair to hold them out after they ran the table (granted a weak table... but it did include 2 top 25 teams), when teams are getting in with losses to 5 and 8 loss teams? It's not like they have the option of playing a power 5 schedule, and everyone that did have the option blew it bad, at least once, except for Auburn and bama.

It's not fair, but until we expand the playoffs, those teams will never get in.  If there was a four playoff team way back when, I could see a Boise state getting in, just for the fact they would be ranked high early in the season and they played at least one high quality game. That is what it is going to take for these non-power 5 schools.

[lionheartkc 6,150]

1 minute ago, DAG said:

It's not fair, but until we expand the playoffs, those teams will never get in.  If there was a four playoff team way back when, I could see a Boise state getting in, just for the fact they would be ranked high early in the season and they played at least one high quality game. That is what it is going to take for these non-power 5 schools.

I know that's how it's going to be, but I would still ask the committee to consider it, JUST because everyone else eligible for a couple of the spots crapped the bed at least once.

[DAG 33,980]

7 minutes ago, lionheartkc said:

I know that's how it's going to be, but I would still ask the committee to consider it, JUST because everyone else eligible for a couple of the spots crapped the bed at least once.

Haha and you and I both know the committee is currently saying and will say, they have considered all avenues, including an undefeated UCF. They were asked to consider why they were ranked behind a 3 loss Miss State team last week. It will always come down to perception.

[Trublu4AU 1]

I hate to be the bearer of bad news but if either Oklahoma or Wisconsin loses, Alabama is back in the playoffs.

The winner of the ACC championship game is definitely in. They will leapfrog over Alabama(assuming Miami) if they win. Clemson is already ranked in front of Alabama so obviously if they won they are a shoein. The same is true for SECCG and Georgia if they beat us. That leaves only two spots that Alabama could slide into. They have to hope that either Oklahoma or Wisconsin loses.

I just don't see Oklahoma losing to TCU. However it is still slightly possible. Oklahoma beat TCU already 38-20 which was pretty convincing. I expect that TCU will lose again.

That really only leaves one option. Wisconsin going down to Ohio St. This in my opinion is something that could happen. The reason why is because Wisconsin has literally played no one all season long. As much flack as we gave Alabama for their terrible schedule this year, Wisconsin's is even worse. They have only played one ranked team all year and that was 3 loss Northwestern. The rest of their schedule has an overall losing record of combined opponents.

So let's look at the implications of a loss by Wisconsin. That would mean 2 loss Ohio St. would be going head to head with Alabama over that final playoff spot. Wisconsin would be out with one loss because their schedule is simply atrocious. That means that only Alabama and Ohio St. would be vying for the final spot.

 

Here's what the committee would need to consider.

Ohio St. being a conference champ with two losses vs. Alabama not being a conference champ with only one loss.

 

I think at the end of the day in that discussion Alabama would get the nod. Alabama's loss wasn't bad. Ohio St. got creamed twice. Now losing to Oklahoma like they did isn't too bad. Oklahoma is very good, but that loss to Iowa is just bad. I think they would give Alabama the nod here over Ohio St.

 

 

 

[au_bsci_04 407]

Don't know about yall, but I hope TCU upsets Oklahoma. They scare me the most of any potential playoff matchup we might face (assuming we take care of business Saturday).

[AU80cruiser 1,102]

I want Clemson, OU, and Wisky to be in the playoff. We have unfinished business against all those teams.

Clemson for the 11,12,16,17 loses

Wisky for the 14 bowl loss

OU for last year

[DAG 33,980]

14 minutes ago, au_bsci_04 said:

Don't know about yall, but I hope TCU upsets Oklahoma. They scare me the most of any potential playoff matchup we might face (assuming we take care of business Saturday).

I hope not. I would love for our boys to face them in the NC game after last year

[AuburnTiger4Life 2,225]

I see it being 

1. Clemson 2. Auburn 3. Oklahoma 4. Wisconsin or Ohio State 

[yngwie1995 2,229]

2 hours ago, Woodstock Tiger said:

Not sure about Wisconsin, but I just can't see Miami beating Clemson.  Miami got exposed by Pitt.  Their offense was just not able to move the ball against the 68th ranked Pitt defense this weekend (Pitt usually allows 400 yards /game, but MIA only garnered 230 yards of offense).  Clemson is healthy again (I believe their QB was injured earlier this year and hobbling around when they took a few on the chin earlier this year) and Clemson is a top notch defense.  Miami QB was not accurate when forced to throw.  (Clemson is the #5 ranked defense (total defense), and has plenty of studs).  I'm betting the "Clemson losing" portion of the scenario doesn't play out.     

Yeah, Clemson is legit. I don't see them losing to Miami, unless their QB gets hurt.

I also don't see Oklahoma losing to TCU. 

That leaves OSU vs Wisconsin. If OSU wins, they probably get in before bama. 

[alexava 6,973]

I am pulling for any scenario that keeps bammer out. Uga twice clempson twice is enough. Don’t need to play three top five teams 2x. But the main thing is to beat uga. Get well Kerryon! 

[lionheartkc 6,150]

3 hours ago, Woodstock Tiger said:

I just can't see Miami beating Clemson.  Miami got exposed by Pitt.  Their offense was just not able to move the ball against the 68th ranked Pitt defense this weekend (Pitt usually allows 400 yards /game, but MIA only garnered 230 yards of offense).  Clemson is healthy again (I believe their QB was injured earlier this year and hobbling around when they took a few on the chin earlier this year) and Clemson is a top notch defense.  Miami QB was not accurate when forced to throw.  (Clemson is the #5 ranked defense (total defense), and has plenty of studs).  I'm betting the "Clemson losing" portion of the scenario doesn't play out.     

I think you are judging Miami too much off of one game. Their QB averages 255 yards and more than 2 touchdowns per game and two of their top 3 running backs are averaging 6.3 an 7.6 yards per carry (the #1 back is the 6.3). In comparison, Clemson's QB averages just over 200 yards and 1 touchdown per game and their top back only averages 3.9 yards per carry. Plus you have to consider that Miami handled Syracuse soundly... Clemson lost to them.

I honestly think the Pitt game was a combination of Miami believing all of the headlines, and Mark Richt's tendency to lose one he shouldn't every year. If it ends up being a wake up call, and Richt can get them up for the big game like he used to at Georgia, I can see them giving Clemson all they can handle.  Clemson's D is top 5 or better... their O... is not what it was in year's past.