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Playoff nightmare scenario


lionheartkc

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So, say Auburn wins on Saturday... this is how the rest could play out.

This is totally not far fetched. What happens if Clemson and Wisconsin lose their conference championship games? Neither is a far fetched scenario considering that Wisconsin hasn't really been tested and Miami is probably going to be playing with a huge chip on their shoulder.

So what happens then?  Does Wisconsin still get in with the best win/loss record in the conference or does Ohio state jump in with 2 losses as the winner?  Does Miami get in? Does bama weasel their way back in? How about UCF who would then be the only undefeated team in the NCAA?

FiveThirtyEight predicts Oklahoma, Auburn, Ohio State and Miami in that scenario, but I don't know.

If you believe in FiveThiryEight, however, you better hope Oklahoma wins, because if TCU wins, no matter who else wins or loses, they predict bama getting their semi-annual back-door pass. And if Clemson and TCU win, the scenario of us having to beat both rivals twice and take 1 out of 2 from Clemson to win it all could very well happen.

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I just don't see TCU beating Oklahoma... Ohio state or Wisconsin could go either way but I lean towards Wisconsin because they have the better defense. Either way we'll be a 2 or 3 seed and I don't see Bama beating Clemson or Oklahoma 

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I thought if two teams from the same conference made it to the playoffs they had to play each other in the first round.

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I put zero faith in what FiveThirtyEight thinks or says. On 11/08/16 they gave HRC a 71.6% chance of winning the election that day. 

 

If TCU or OSU win bama gets in. If both Wisconsin and OU win they do not. I also do not care if bama gets a back door pass. Regardless of who they played the SEC West is still the strongest division in college football. Top to bottom the west would be favored head to head against any team from another conference if playing 1 versus 1, 2 versus 2, etc.

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Not sure about Wisconsin, but I just can't see Miami beating Clemson.  Miami got exposed by Pitt.  Their offense was just not able to move the ball against the 68th ranked Pitt defense this weekend (Pitt usually allows 400 yards /game, but MIA only garnered 230 yards of offense).  Clemson is healthy again (I believe their QB was injured earlier this year and hobbling around when they took a few on the chin earlier this year) and Clemson is a top notch defense.  Miami QB was not accurate when forced to throw.  (Clemson is the #5 ranked defense (total defense), and has plenty of studs).  I'm betting the "Clemson losing" portion of the scenario doesn't play out.     

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I think Bird is right. Committee has talked a lot about the weight they give conference champions. Also what is the difference of UA losing their last game of the season vs Wisconsin losing their last game of the season (if OSU wins) besides 1 week? Last week was the first round of the playoffs, this week with conference championships is the second round of the playoffs.  If you lose you are out.

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OSU would have a hard time getting in due to that shellacking they got by Iowa. That was a very bad loss.

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5 minutes ago, 80Tiger said:

I think Bird is right. Committee has talked a lot about the weight they give conference champions. Also what is the difference of UA losing their last game of the season vs Wisconsin losing their last game of the season (if OSU wins) besides 1 week? Last week was the first round of the playoffs, this week with conference championships is the second round of the playoffs.  If you lose you are out.

The difference is the strength of Wisconsin's opponents. I don't care what the committee has said about conference champion weight. I see no way Ohio st. gets in over Alabama.

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Just now, AU Is Gold said:

The difference is the strength of Wisconsin's opponents. I don't care what the committee has said about conference champion weight. I see no way Ohio st. gets in over Alabama.

Alabama's before us was 62nd...OSU will have beaten a few top 15 teams and a top 5

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17 minutes ago, bigbird said:

If OSU beats Wisconsin, I think they go before bama

Can you imagine the meltdown in West Alabama if two 2-loss teams gets in and their beloved bama doesn't?  

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1 minute ago, lionheartkc said:

Can you imagine the meltdown in West Alabama if two 2-loss teams gets in and their beloved bama doesn't?  

If it happens I’ll be sipping on a beverage while browsing the salt hitting social media. It should be glorious.

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12 minutes ago, FormerlySec38Row34 said:

OSU would have a hard time getting in due to that shellacking they got by Iowa. That was a very bad loss.

The only teams in contention that don't have a bad loss on their record (save Wisconsin who hasn't played anyone), are us and the team we just beat.

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13 minutes ago, 80Tiger said:

I think Bird is right. Committee has talked a lot about the weight they give conference champions. Also what is the difference of UA losing their last game of the season vs Wisconsin losing their last game of the season (if OSU wins) besides 1 week? Last week was the first round of the playoffs, this week with conference championships is the second round of the playoffs.  If you lose you are out.

The committee also set a presidence last year that the conference champ is not a sure in. Last year PSU's loss was a blow out. This OSU 's loss was bad. Really interested how they view this because it doesn' seem to be consistent.  

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27 minutes ago, RHN1975 said:

I put zero faith in what FiveThirtyEight thinks or says. On 11/08/16 they gave HRC a 71.6% chance of winning the election that day. 

 

If TCU or OSU win bama gets in. If both Wisconsin and OU win they do not. I also do not care if bama gets a back door pass. Regardless of who they played the SEC West is still the strongest division in college football. Top to bottom the west would be favored head to head against any team from another conference if playing 1 versus 1, 2 versus 2, etc.

To be fair, those were accurate odds for the election and likely are now. Something unlikely happened. The odds for all those teams are likely pretty accurate.

 

If I said, "the odds are 25% I can flip a coin twice and not flip 'heads,'" I would be right regardless of outcome. Odds aren't result dependent.

 

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6 minutes ago, bigbird said:

Alabama's before us was 62nd...OSU will have beaten a few top 15 teams and a top 5

bama's one loss will have come to a top 4 team if we win this weekend and OSU would have lost to a top 4 team and one that doesn't even sniff the top 30. It would be like bama lost to us and Texas A&M. No way they get in over bama.

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The Bammers truly believe they are entitled to be an annual playoff team. The air is slowly leaking out of their dynasty, but they believe it is eternal. They have forgotten about losing 6 straight Iron Bowls, or losses to LaTech, LaMonroe, UCF, and Hawaai, or hiring Mike Price. AU needs to put the pedal to the metal and accelerate Saban’s demise. I don’t want them in the playoffs, but if they go they will implode when we beat them again. WDE!

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5 minutes ago, djg0017 said:

I just really hope the seeding has us playing in New Orleans and not Pasadena, if we win on Saturday.

Either is fine with me, because the championship game is basically a home game :)

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Just now, lionheartkc said:

Either is fine with me, because the championship game is basically a home game :)

True! Pasadena is just going to be hard for students to get to especially — I’ll make the trip to Nola though

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Just now, djg0017 said:

True! Pasadena is just going to be hard for students to get to especially — I’ll make the trip to Nola though

Auburn travels better than almost any team in the country. We'll fill the stands no matter where we play.  Plus, we have a surprisingly large alumni contingent in California.

I think a lot of students would love an excuse to head out West for a few days.

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4 minutes ago, lionheartkc said:

Auburn travels better than almost any team in the country. We'll fill the stands no matter where we play.  Plus, we have a surprisingly large alumni contingent in California.

I think a lot of students would love an excuse to head out West for a few days.

I sure would because the tickets are a steal! I guess I’ll have to leave that up to the West Coasters

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