9/24/22

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Plainsman Picks: Missouri - The Auburn Plainsman

6-7 minutes

Following its first loss of the season to Penn State, Auburn football looks to right the ship this Saturday. Opening SEC play with Missouri, this afternoon game will feature homecoming festivities before the Tigers hit the true stretch of their conference games. 

Here's how our staff are picking the games: 

 

 

Callie Stanford, Sports Editor: Auburn 20-17

@Stanford1Callie 

"I'm really on the fence with this one. I think Auburn wins out of sheer will after an embarrassing Penn State loss, but likely not in a convincing way as they work on getting out the kinks. I hope no one has forgotten the debacle of the last homecoming. 

I think they squeak by to maintain a bit of pride. That's me imagining the positive outlook, so there's always the possibility of a truly terrible loss. Anders Carlson will be there to bail out the offense as they struggle, but the Tigers get it done this Saturday."

Noah Griffith, Assistant Sports Editor: Auburn 20-10

 

@NoahGG01

"I think Auburn will have every opportunity to exploit Missouri's weak run defense -- they gave up 235 yards on the ground against Kansas State. However, if Auburn continues to not be a factor in the turnover battle, it will be tough to win games. I expect Derrick Hall to have a big week and force Brady Cook to make quick reads, leading to Auburn's first takeaway of the year and a low-scoring win."

Jacob Waters, Sports Reporter: 17-16 Auburn

@JacobWaters_

"Both teams are 2-1 but neither fanbase is overjoyed right now. Auburn is fresh off a 41-12 drumming against Penn State and Missouri got pounded by Kansas State similarly, 40-12 a couple of weeks ago. Both teams have major question marks on both sides of the ball. The key here will be the turnover battle. Missouri has turned the ball over seven times this season while Auburn has forced zero turnovers. I think on the road, Missouri continues its turnover woes and Auburn makes a key stop defensively late in the game to grind out a win."

Matthew Wallace, Sports Writer: Auburn 16-10

"Both Auburn and Missouri have had one test against a Power Five team - and both failed that test miserably. If Auburn is to win, it has to limit turnovers against a Missouri defense that has forced six opponent turnovers this season. With the health of T.J. Finley uncertain, Auburn will likely go to the ground game early and often against a Missouri rush defense that faltered against Kansas State. Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter, if the offensive line is able to open running lanes, should have big games. Auburn has to improve in the red zone, but a trustworthy kicker in Anders Carlson could save the Tigers in what could be a low-scoring game."

Donavan Weaver, Sports Writer: Auburn 31-13

@DonavanWeaver21

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"After an embarrassing performance against Penn State, Auburn welcomes Mizzou for homecoming. While I don't believe there was anything positive about Auburn's performance last Saturday, I don't see them dropping a game to a poor Missouri team. I think the offensive line will improve, and Robbie Ashford will be the definitive QB1 which I believe will help his confidence and performance. Auburn will finally force a couple turnovers on the defensive side of the ball and get after Missouri's QB. I believe Missouri will keep it competitive for a half, but Auburn puts the petal to the metal in the 3rd quarter to get a dominant win."

Larry Robinson, Photo Editor: Missouri 17-13

@ReportingLarry

"Wow. Who would've thought that a matchup against the SEC East powerhouse in Missouri would decide the direction for the rest of Auburn's season? This reality is upon us. With the speculation that there may be a change in quarterback after T.J. Finley left last week's game a little banged up, this may be Missouri's best chance at an SEC West win outside of Arkansas in quite a long time. Auburn's defense gets after Brady Cook but doesn't get him to the ground enough to rattle his confidence. Whoever is in at quarterback for the home Tigers will likely continue to struggle with a lack of receiver separation and an offensive line who couldn't stop a Walmart buggy being pushed by my grandma. Missouri shocks the world and pulls off this "upset".

Daniel Schmidt, Assistant News Editor: Auburn 17-14

@dschmidttweets

"Auburn gets a conference win before facing a murderer's row of LSU, Georgia and Ole Miss. With the expected absence of T.J. Finley, I expect Auburn to utilize Robby Ashford in the read option much in the way of former great Nick Marshall. With a steady diet of Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter, Auburn will slowly constrict the clock and limit Missouri's touches on offense. 

The defense gets enough from the offense this week to win in a low-scoring affair. The Tigers avoid an embarrassing homecoming defeat that would make Bryan Harsin's already red-hot seat an all-consuming supernova."

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What can Auburn fans expect from Holden Geriner?

Taylor Jones

3 minutes

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Auburn head coach Bryan Harsin’s appearance on the weekly radio show “Tiger Talk” was… rather interesting.

News broke earlier this week that starting quarterback T.J. Finley would not play in Saturday’s game against Missouri after suffering a shoulder injury in last week’s loss to Penn State. Then, on Thursday, it was reported that third-string quarterback Zach Calzada has elected to have season-ending surgery on his non-throwing shoulder.

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Despite the breaking news, Harsin did not discuss Finley or Calzada’s status with the team but told Andy Burcham, the voice of the Auburn Tigers, that his policy regarding injuries is not to talk about them publically unless it is season-ending and that he wishes his team’s privacy was respected.

Although Harsin offered zero insight into the quarterback situation, it has been reported by Justin Hokanson of Auburn Live that Robby Ashford will get the start at quarterback and that true freshman Holden Geriner could see playing time as well.

What can Auburn fans expect to see from Geriner as he prepares to potentially see his first college action?

Geriner was the No. 18 overall quarterback for the 2022 class out of Benedictine Military Academy in Savannah, Georgia. Andrew Ivens of 247Sports says that Geriner is an intriguing quarterback prospect that has a quick release, is sound in the decision-making process and has the ability to push the ball down the field.

According to his current teammates, he is already showing potential to be a great college quarterback.

“(Geriner) can zip it,” Auburn pass rusher Marcus Harris said Monday during Auburn’s weekly media availability. “The first week he was on the scout team and he was just dotting up receivers, and he’s a pretty good quarterback. As his time goes on at Auburn, I feel he’s going to be great. He has one of the best balls I’ve seen and I think he’s going to be great.”

Geriner not only has shown potential, but he continuously works to perfect his craft.

“He carries himself like a pro already,” Harris said. “He’s staying after practice with guys and different receivers and passing the ball. Even after practice, even though he’s not playing right now, he still does those types of things.”

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Tiger Buzz: Auburn vs. Missouri TV info, key matchups and what to watch for

Published: Sep. 23, 2022, 12:05 p.m.

3-4 minutes

Head 2 Head: Auburn vs Missouri

By

Nubyjas Wilborn | nwilborn@al.com

Auburn (2-1, 0-0 SEC) vs Missouri (2-1, 0-0 SEC)

When: 11 am

Where: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn

TV: ESPN

Line: Auburn -7

This game will determine...

How Auburn bounces back from a rough 29-point loss against Penn State. Auburn head coach Bryan Harsin’s second season on the plains took a downturn with one of the worst home losses at Jordan-Hare in the last ten seasons. Auburn needs a win badly to quiet the rumors about Harsin’s job security as head coach.

Three things to watch for...

1. Who’s going to be the Auburn starting quarterback? T.J. Finley isn’t expected to play against Missouri. Finley suffered a shoulder injury in the loss against Penn State. Zach Calzada, according to reports, is having season-ending shoulder surgery. The Tigers have Robby Ashford and freshman Holden Geriner as the remaining scholarship quarterbacks on the roster. Ashford likely gets the start since he’s already seen significant action in the previous three games. Would Harsin play the true freshman? We’ll see.

2. Can Auburn turn around its turnover ratio? The Tigers had four turnovers against Penn State and have a -8 turnover ratio through three games. Auburn’s defense hasn’t created a turnover. Turnovers were a focus for defensive coordinator Jeff Schmedding during spring football and fall camp workouts. Auburn has to get better at holding onto the ball and taking it away from opponents.

3. Auburn’s run game has to get back rolling. The Tigers got off to a good start with the ground game in wins against Mercer and San Jose State. Penn State kept Tiger running backs Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter from gaining traction. Once the Nittany Lions took the lead, the Tigers abandoned the run game. Auburn is best when Bigsy and Hunter gain yards to set up the play-action pass.

Key Matchup...

Auburn’s defensive line versus Missouri’s offensive line. Auburn has four sacks through three games, which isn’t good enough. Penn State kept the Tigers from getting to quarterback Sean Clifford and created running lanes for the tailbacks. Auburn needs to get more pressure on Missouri’s quarterback if they’re going to win.

By the numbers: 0: The Tigers are 0-6 against Power 5 teams since an Oct 30, 2021 victory against Ole Miss. Auburn was 6-2 after beating the Rebels before last season’s five-game losing streak. A triumph against Missouri is necessary to get back to winning ways.

Key Injuries: Auburn QB T.J. Finley out (knee) QB Zach Calzada out (knee)

Missouri: n/a

Missouri player to watch

Receiver Luther Burden is a five-star recruit with 78 yards on 10 catches and a touchdown. Burden is an elite talent. Auburn will have to account for Burden on every defensive play.

“You try to do it all for that guy, mix it up, play man coverage, and at some point, someone has to match up on him,” Harsin said. I think that’s the one thing that’s a challenge for us.

Nubyjas Wilborn covers Auburn for Alabama Media Group.

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GAME PREVIEW: Auburn vs Missouri

JackCondon@CollegeAndMag

7-8 minutes

We may look back on today and see the actual turning point of the program. Now, this isn’t a good thing to have to endure. It’s like pulling a rotten tooth. It sucks in the moment, and for a little while afterward, but it’s necessary for the future. Auburn has already gotten rid of pieces of an athletic department that didn’t understand what’s necessary to win in our position.

SEC football is a different game, and this current marriage seemed disjointed from the get-go. Nobody was on the same page, and now we have a chance to change that. Unfortunately, the players who had nothing to do with situation have to eat the crap for a while to help get us through this change. You can feel that #vibes in this locker room are not good at the moment, and there are a couple of different routes this whole ordeal takes.

We could get smashed today, still reeling from the Penn State game, and Bryan Harsin doesn’t end up getting to go into the locker room — Herm Edwards style.

We could lose a close one, or win, and he’ll probably stick around, and we’ll have the weirdest game possible against LSU next week. Then he gets the axe in Athens after Kirby names his score.

It’s a weird feeling when you know it’s over, but the split hasn’t actually happened yet. All in all, it’s a chance to get better, you know... a 1-0 mentality type of thing.

WHEN MISSOURI HAS THE BALL: The golden Tigers are right down there at the bottom of the SEC with us in a bunch of categories, and they’re still a bit of a mystery. Two games against Louisiana Tech and Abilene Christian don’t really tell you much, and the loss against Kansas State is such a different story that it reminds me of another team. Us.

Blowing out one overmatched cupcake, struggling a bit with another, and then getting blasted by the only P5 team you play? We’re mirror images.

Brady Cook has a couple of solid weapons to deal to in Dominic Lovett and Luther Burden, while the running game has some guys that will spread the carries around pretty evenly. Cook included, you’ve also got Cody Schrader, Nathaniel Peat, and Elijah Cook (questionable for this one). Cook is pretty elusive, averaging over six yards per carry.

However, they’ve got offensive line problems just like we do. Either this turns into a shootout somehow, or we end up looking like a pair of Iowas gumming each other to death.

WHEN AUBURN HAS THE BALL: This is going to be an interesting day.

T.J. Finley — OUT.

Zach Calzada — OUT.

Robby Ashford — QB1

Holden Gerine — QB2

Finley sustained a shoulder injury late last week, and Calzada saw the writing on the wall I guess, and opted for season-ending shoulder surgery. What we’re going to see is the Wildcat offense in effect, with a little splash of a pure passing offense with Geriner. Who knows what kind of a split the quarterbacks are dealt, but I would hope that they don’t have any sort of real effect on the game.

This should be all about the tailbacks for Auburn, getting back to the basics with Tank and Jarquez. They’re two of the only guys that have really deserved it on offense, and we should ride them as much as possible. I know that we’re going to have a repeat performance from Tank in Athens in a couple weeks like he had in 2020, trying to will the offense to gain yards. We can get him in an actual rhythm today.

Personally, this is going to be an interesting day for nothing else than what they can cobble together with this QB combo. How do they respond after last week? What can we do about the turnovers? Man, I dunno. But we’re going to see something.

SERIES HISTORY: Auburn leads the all-time series 2-1, winning a pair of consecutive games after losing the first meeting in 1973. The good Tigers won the 2013 SEC Championship Game 59-42 to advance to the BCS National Championship before visiting CoMo in 2017 for another big win. This will be Missouri’s first trip to the Plains, ten years after joining the conference.

LAST MEETING: Auburn has had good success with Missouri since they joined the league in 2012. The Tigers and Tigers have met twice, but the most recent meeting came in 2017 when Auburn won the SEC West. Missouri got the business end of a healthy Kerryon Johnson (who scored 5 touchdowns in CoMo), and an efficient Jarrett Stidham, who went 13-17 for 218 yards and a 57-yard score to Nate Craig-Myers. Auburn won 51-14.

LAST WEEK: Uh, gross. Auburn lost 41-12 to Penn State. Hey, that’s show biz. Missouri meanwhile beat Abilene Christian 34-17.

TUCKER GREGG AWARD CANDIDATE: Missouri doesn’t exactly have the group of dudes with that dog in them that we’re going to be seeing later on in the conference schedule. That said, we’re probably going to be wringing our hands watching Dominic Lovett catch some passes. Everyone else has had success throwing against our secondary (save for Jaylin Simpson), and I don’t expect that anything else should change here.

RANDOM PREDICTION WITH NO BASIS IN REALITY: Robby Ashford has 2 long touchdown runs (35+ yards each) and 2 interceptions.

KEYS FOR AUBURN:

Run the ball. And don’t stop. I can’t believe that this has to be a key, but when Tank Bigsby only gets 6 carries in the first half and 9 carries total (11 touches overall), you have to go back to the basics. Jarquez Hunter was effective, but he only had 8 touches overall as well. Auburn threw the ball 38 times last week, obviously things change when you get down and you’ve got to try and pick up big yardage to get back in the game, but man. Missouri was gashed by Kansas State, particularly in the quarterback run game, and Auburn needs to have one of those classic Nick Marshall type of games where we throw it 8 times.

Figure out the turnovers. If you’re throwing the ball single-digit times today, then the chance that we throw 2 interceptions is diminished, but... I don’t know what this quarterback crew is truly capable of. Now when we’ve got Robby Ashford as the starter and Holden Geriner looking to get his first collegiate action with both T.J. Finley and Zach Calzada OUT for the game (and maybe more), we need to see a more rational plan on offense. Put the quarterbacks in safe situations, and dumb down the offense enough to let our athletes win against theirs.

If you’re there, cheer hard for the players. I can’t pretend that there won’t likely be fans today who might actually be pulling for a loss so that we can end this whole Bryan Harsin situation by church on Sunday morning. However, there are going to be special guys on the field inside Jordan-Hare for only a handful of times, and it’s unlikely Harsin makes it much longer even if he wins today. You’re going to be pulling for Derick Hall, Tank, Jarquez, Owen, Colby, Anders, and many others who have earned your support, even if the head coach hasn’t.

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Defensive keys to Auburn's SEC opener against Missouri

River Wells

3-4 minutes

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Auburn had a performance to forget on defense last weekend against Penn State, but its about to face an opponent that can get them back on track.

The Missouri Tigers aren’t exactly an offensive powerhouse, so there’s plenty of opportunity for Auburn to get back on track defensively and right its (many) wrongs. There weren’t really any positives from the team’s blowout last week, though, so there’s a lot of work to do if the team definitively wants to beat Mizzou.

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Here are four defensive keys Auburn should look to follow if it wants to get a win in Jordan-Hare on Saturday:

USA Today Network

It was Auburn’s mission last week to limit wide receiver Mitchell Tinsley, and it did that job decently — it just allowed other wide receivers to beat them far worse than Tinsley did, and that can’t happen again.

The biggest weapon Mizzou has in its receiving corps is sophomore Dominic Lovett, who is currently averaging just over 17 yards per reception and has caught two touchdowns for Missouri thus far. Auburn should look to limit him, but it also shouldn’t get distracted by him, either, lest Missouri’s other receivers have a field day like Penn State did the week prior. If the Tigers keep a steady eye on Mizzou’s other ball-catchers, they should be alright.

Andrew Dieb-USA TODAY Sports

It doesn’t matter if you’re Nathan Peterman or Patrick Mahomes — pressure is the ruin of any quarterback, and a complete lack of it is where all of them will kill a defense. Auburn’s pitiful performance from its defensive line and edge rushers is what allowed Nittany Lions quarterback Sean Clifford to complete 73 percent of his passes for 9.4 yards per attempt.

Brady Cook is another quarterback that won’t make things happen outside of his comfort zone, and so bringing the pass rush is an absolute must if Auburn wants to prevent air superiority. A pass rush like last weekend will only ensure that Cook and company will eat Auburn alive in the passing game and have the offense playing catchup.

Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

The picture you’re seeing above this paragraph is the last turnover Auburn’s defense has had. It happened when cornerback Nehemiah Pritchett picked off Houston quarterback Clayton Tune at the Birmingham Bowl.

That was 269 days ago. The Tigers are still waiting for the next one.

Auburn’s turnover ratio is currently -8, and the defense has to at least stumble into a turnover by luck at the very least to remedy that. Telling a team to just recover a fumble or pick off a pass doesn’t seem simple, but Auburn has to get the ball back on defense at some point if it wants to definitively win a football game down the line.

Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

The easiest way to force a turnover is to force Brady Cook to throw, and that should be a freebie for Auburn since Cook is also currently the team’s leading rusher.

Missouri’s run game is almost nonexistent, so the Tigers won’t have to worry about a big bad like Nicholas Singleton busting off more than 100 yards on the ground. That should make it pretty straightforward for Auburn to make Missouri beat it through the air, and if it can be aware of all of Mizzou’s weapons it’ll find success on defense.

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Missouri vs. Auburn by the numbers

Published: Sep. 24, 2022, 3:00 a.m.

5-6 minutes

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Missouri (2-1) at Auburn (2-1)

11 a.m. CDT Saturday (ESPN)

Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn

0 Teams in the nation have a greater average time of possession than Missouri this season. The Tigers’ offense has kept the football an average of 41:09 per game in 2022. Auburn has an average possession time of 28:04 per game, which ranks 102nd in the nation.

1 Previous regular-season game between Auburn and Missouri. Auburn defeated Missouri 51-14 in 2017 in the teams’ only league game in the 10 seasons that they’ve been in the SEC together. Auburn also defeated Missouri 59-42 in the SEC Championship Game for the 2013 season. In the teams’ other meeting, Missouri defeated Auburn 34-17 in the 1973 Sun Bowl. Saturday’s game will be Missouri’s first visit to Jordan-Hare Stadium.

MORE SEC FOOTBALL BY THE NUMBERS:

· TOP 10 FOR WEEK 4

· TOP 10 FROM WEEK 3

2 Points are needed by Anders Carlson to lift the Auburn kicker into seventh place on the SEC’s career list. Currently, Jeff Hall holds that spot with 371 points for Tennessee from 1995 through 1998. When Hall left the Volunteers, he held the SEC career scoring record. Carlson ranks second in scoring in Auburn history to Daniel Carlson, who holds the SEC record with 480 points for the Tigers from 2014 through 2017.

2 Victories in its past 10 regular-season games against SEC East teams for Auburn, the worst 10-game stretch in interdivision play for the Tigers. Auburn has a 46-35-1 record against SEC East opponents since the conference divided into divisions in 1992. Missouri has an 11-11 record against the SEC West after losing its past three games.

7 Consecutive victories for Auburn on Sept. 24. Since a 28-0 loss to Tennessee in Birmingham in 1966, the Tigers have beaten Tennessee three times and East Tennessee State, Western Kentucky, Florida Atlantic and LSU once apiece on Sept. 24. Auburn has a 10-3 record on the date.

7 Seasons in a row have featured a loss for Missouri in the Tigers’ first SEC road game. Missouri hasn’t won the first away game on its conference schedule since topping South Carolina 21-20 at Williams-Brice Stadium on Sept. 27, 2014. Saturday’s game is Missouri’s first SEC game of 2021.

7 Missouri players have recorded a rushing, receiving and punt-return TD in the same season, including WR Luther Burden III, who returned a punt 78 yards for a TD in the Tigers’ 34-17 victory over Abilene Christian last week.

7 Field goals of at least 50 yards have been made by Missouri K Harrison Mevis, who passed Tom Whelihan for the school record last week with a 52-yarder against Abilene Christian.

8 NCAA FBS players have at least four rushing TDs and one receiving TD this season, including Auburn RB Jarquez Hunter, who is the only SEC player on the list. Hunter is the first Auburn player in this century who has run for at least four TDs and also has caught a TD pass through the Tigers’ first three games of a season.

14 Consecutive Auburn games have featured at least 16 points for the Tigers’ opponent, the longest such streak in school history. Auburn’s 41-12 loss to Penn State last week pushed the current streak past the first 13-game streak, which was ended by a 17-14 victory over Mississippi State on Sept. 9, 2010. The current streak started after Auburn’s 62-0 victory over Alabama State in the second game of the 2021 campaign.

30 Consecutive homecoming games have been won by Auburn. The Tigers haven’t lost on homecoming since 1991, when Mississippi State spoiled things by taking a 24-17 victory. Auburn has an 83-8-4 record in the homecoming game.

66 Is Missouri’s national rank in scoring offense and Auburn’s national rank in scoring defense. Missouri has averaged scoring 32.7 points per game. Auburn has yielded an average of 24.3 points per game. Missouri’s offense also ranks 65th nationally in yards per game at 423.0 while Auburn’s defense ranks 66th nationally in yards allowed per game at 359.0.

120 Consecutive games without being shut out for Auburn, the second-longest streak in school history. Auburn’s most recent shutout loss came 49-0 to Alabama on Nov. 17, 2012. Auburn’s record scoring streak lasted 149 games, starting with a 55-16 victory over Richmond on Oct. 4, 1980, and ending with a 17-0 loss to Alabama on Nov. 26, 1992.

126 Previous games have been played against another team of Tigers by Auburn. Missouri is one of the six teams that shares Auburn’s nickname that has been played by Auburn, which has a 66-55-5 record against Clemson, LSU, Memphis, Missouri, Pacific and Sewanee.

132 Yards on seven receptions for WR Dominic Lovett in Missouri’s 34-17 victory over Abilene Christian last week. Lovett had the most receiving yards for a Missouri player in a single game over the past 38 contests.

FOR MORE OF AL.COM’S COVERAGE OF THE SEC, GO TO OUR SEC PAGE

Mark Inabinett is a sports reporter for Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter at @AMarkG1.