First off: I’m a math guy. I love numbers and statistics and think they can be a valuable tool when used correctly. So I’m not one of those guys who think analytics are ruining sports.
That said, I think they don’t really work well in football. There’s just too many moving parts and momentum on both offense and defense is too much of a factor. You can use statistics as a tool to inform decisions, but ultimately there’s a lot of “feel” that has to go into play calling in my opinion.
In particular, Ole Miss’ decision to go for it on 4th down after the muffed punt was terrible. You HAVE to make Auburn pay for that mistake with points and it was a huge emotional boost to the defense to get that stop. And then going for it when down 11 made zero sense when you needed two scores anyway.
I don’t think it cost Ole Miss the game, but the last 4 minutes sure look a lot different if Auburn is only up 2 (or 5 or 8 )instead of up 11.