Notes on Malzahn's Auburn Offense (Merged)

[GwillMac6 20,671]

Just now, auburnphan said:

I don't think so, but there was a bunch of chatter for him last off season and he wasn't coaching so I thought I would throw this out there half as a joke!

wish it was not a joke....... him and steele have history! He would not be a kodi burns hire it would be electric fam!

[AUwent 3,748]

14 minutes ago, GwillMac6 said:

Yet again our hopes rely on a non high school qb this staff recruited but a guy trained up by one of the best qb developers in college fball recently in briles. 

You alluding to JF3? JS != JF3

I think the expectation/standard for 2016 was 8 wins. Expectation/standard for 2017 is 10 wins.

Plus, it sounds like only one player is going pro. (Well, two if you count Truitt transferring but yeah).

Generally it's a good sign in a program when a bunch of players who were draft eligible (and for whom have a certain very strong incentive--see Bubba) decide to stay. When several players who are going to be lucky to be drafted go pro early, it's a bad sign. The latter scenario was what we had last year.

We also lose only one coach this year.

Athlon's way-too-early top 25 for 2016: http://athlonsports.com/college-football/very-early-college-football-top-25-2016

Athlon's way-too-early top 25 for 2017: http://athlonsports.com/college-football/very-early-college-football-top-25-2017

Coming off a second place finish in the west with a winning overall record (YES I KNOW IT WAS DOWN) is different from coming off a last place finish in the west, winning only two games.

Look, I'm sorry to sound like an in-denial  pumper. I'm quite angry with Gus (and especially JJ) too. I'm just trying to put a bit of a damper on this party of doom and gloomers we've had over the past week.

[GwillMac6 20,671]

1 minute ago, AUwent said:

You referring to JF3? JS != JF3

I think the expectation/standard for 2016 was 8 wins.

Plus, it sounds like only one player is going pro. (Well, two if you count Truitt transferring but yeah).

Generally it's a good sign in a program when a bunch of players who were draft eligible (and for whom have a certain very strong incentive--see Bubba) decide to stay. When several players who are going to be lucky to be drafted go pro early, it's a bad sign. The latter scenario was what we had last year.

We also lose only one coach this year.

Athlon's way-too-early top 25 for 2016: http://athlonsports.com/college-football/very-early-college-football-top-25-2016

Athlon's way-too-early top 25 for 2017: http://athlonsports.com/college-football/very-early-college-football-top-25-2017

Coming off a second place finish in the west with a winning overall record (YES I KNOW IT WAS DOWN) is different from coming off a last place finish in the west, winning only two games.

Look, I'm sorry to sound like an in-denial sunshine pumper. I'm quite angry with Gus too. I'm just trying to put a bit of a damper on the constant stream of moaning around here the past two weeks.

no not jf3. referring to stidham for this year. there was never any hope from me with jf3. I have A LOT of hope with stidham. I think he will be what we all thought jeremy johnson could be.

[JMassie11 1,610]

18 minutes ago, GwillMac6 said:

Yet again our hopes rely on a non high school qb this staff recruited but a guy trained up by one of the best qb developers in college fball recently in briles. 

Would argue this happens everywhere . QBs out of HS are a coin flip. Just look at all the 4 and 5 star kids that are leaving bama this year after being beaten out by a freshman. It just happens.

[JMassie11 1,610]

5 minutes ago, GwillMac6 said:

no not jf3. referring to stidham for this year. there was never any hope from me with jf3. I have A LOT of hope with stidham. I think he will be what we all thought jeremy johnson could be.

At least we SHOULD have a serviceable back up provided the rumors regarding Whites health are just that and he comes back

[GwillMac6 20,671]

4 minutes ago, JMassie11 said:

Would argue this happens everywhere . QBs out of HS are a coin flip. Just look at all the 4 and 5 star kids that are leaving bama this year after being beaten out by a freshman. It just happens.

They left because they found their 3 or 4 year starter. No point to stay when you get beat out by a true frosh and your a senior. Barnett left because he is to talented to just be ok with being a backup. We have YET to find that. Really hoping stidham is that guy and then gatewood or woody is after that. If Stidham can be a bridge to joey football then we are looking at a good run here.

[abw0004 10,112]

We have the 11th best odds to win the National Championship in 2017 as of now.  Of course that can change.  30-1 odds according to Vegas.  Apparently some people think this offseason is different.  

[ScottsboroAuburnFan 462]

We are in much better position this off season. Depth and returning guys really good. We have 1 person that we need to replace and that is Lawson. Holland will do that imo.

[GwillMac6 20,671]

28 minutes ago, abw0004 said:

We have the 11th best odds to win the National Championship in 2017 as of now.  Of course that can change.  30-1 odds according to Vegas.  Apparently some people think this offseason is different.  

#stidham #artbrilesqb

[Win4AU 4,052]

This offseason's QB battle will be to see who is the best instead of seeing who is the lesser of the bad. 

RB is loaded

WR loaded

Defense should be about the same which is a big compliment compared to what most expected last year preseason.

#14 is a good place to start and work our way up!

PSU at 4!  I'll go ahead and pick them as flop team of the year. 

[doc4aday 1,887]

On ‎1‎/‎8‎/‎2017 at 7:26 PM, alexava said:

Qb, qb, qb,qb,qb !!!!!! Gus has had bad luck with QBs. Yes it's still his fault but if the qb/roster situation improves Gus gets it going. If he can't get improvement in that area he fails. It's that simple. 

Maybe it is QBs having bad luck with Gus!

[wildlife alumni 304]

It is fun to think of the what ifs. If JJ played like he did in that one Arkansas game for the rest of his career, what would we be saying about The O. What is Stidham is all we hope him to be?  What are we talking about next year? 

[doc4aday 1,887]

On ‎1‎/‎8‎/‎2017 at 7:29 PM, Gowebb11 said:

Two things: Gus has tread to compete in the SEC the past two,years playing musical chairs with QBs who aren't dual threat guys. Hard to excel when you recruit personnel that don't fit your system. Also, his offense in no way resembles OUs. OU is proactive: designed to attack you all over the field until you stop them. Gus is reactive: hurry to the line, see what the defense is doing, then change your approach reacting to them. I hope JS earns his confidence quickly and is allowed to attack defenses instead of react. WDE! 

I agree with your assessment. I have said in past years that Gus' offense works its best with a dual threat QB who is good enough passing the ball to keep defenses honest. I was raked over the coals about this. I was told that a pocket passer could work in Gus' offense. SW comes as close as you can get with a semi- dual threat QB that is sneaky fast when forced to run. JJ is a pocket passer and not even in the zip code of a dual threat QB. Cam & Nick were true DT QBs about as good as you can get.

JS is a very good dual threat QB, as is Woody. SW is very capable of successfully running Gus' offense. Gus needs to understand that he MUST have a DT QB and stay away from pocket passer QBs no matter how enticing a pocket passer may look to Gus. Lincoln Riley will be a HC soon and I would love to see him on our sidelines if Gus has a bad 2017 season. There is a group of young OCs that are HCs in the making sooner than later. Tom Herman is in that number that includes Lincoln Riley, Dave Aranda and others that I cannot think of currently.

 

[AU70 23]

On January 8, 2017 at 8:25 PM, corchjay said:

Balance is the name of the game.  You must pass some on first down.  And not just always the screen game.  That has been what has made us so predictable is the 80 percent run on first down.  That number needs to be around 60 percent.  That happens and you'll see an offensive explosion and I think Stat Tiger would agree with me. 

Don't know if Stat would be interested in doing this but it would be intersting to know if Gus passed more on first down when he had a QB he trusted to do that - IE Cam, Nick or the 2009 guy [ can't think of his name at the moment ]. 

Also it would be fascinating to scout our offensive formations and personel to see what our tendencies are from that formation and personel group. In other words how much information are we telegraphing [tweating in todays terms] the defense by the way we line up.

[aujeff11 6,243]

More great analysis....

http://www.oanow.com/sports/college/auburn/football/final-analysis-auburn-s-offense-with-sean-white-vs-without/article_f987eb34-d52d-11e6-8597-6bfc3bdfa495.html

 

[lionheartkc 6,150]

17 hours ago, aujeff11 said:

More great analysis....

http://www.oanow.com/sports/college/auburn/football/final-analysis-auburn-s-offense-with-sean-white-vs-without/article_f987eb34-d52d-11e6-8597-6bfc3bdfa495.html

 

Unfortunately all he threw out was the Clemson game. That means Sean's numbers were skewed by the fact that he played one full game with a bad shoulder, inhibiting his ability to throw, and another quarter and a half with a broken arm, also inhibiting his ability to throw. Both of those situations sunk his numbers dramatically due to repeated 3 and outs with nearly no yards gained. 

Also, while he made mention of this "Of the 1,275 yards and 84 points the Tigers scored with Franklin running the offense, 1,082 (86 percent) and 71 (85 percent) came in the second half of wins over Arkansas State, ULM, Arkansas and Alabama A&M, and losses to Texas A&M, Alabama and Oklahoma." he failed to take that into account in his analysis. He only had one successful drive, each, out of 7 total against Texas A&M and Vandy.  He was completely stymied by Oklahoma and Alabama.

It was a nice attempt an an analysis, however.

[aujeff11 6,243]

4 hours ago, lionheartkc said:

Unfortunately all he threw out was the Clemson game. That means Sean's numbers were skewed by the fact that he played one full game with a bad shoulder, inhibiting his ability to throw, and another quarter and a half with a broken arm, also inhibiting his ability to throw. Both of those situations sunk his numbers dramatically due to repeated 3 and outs with nearly no yards gained. 

Also, while he made mention of this "Of the 1,275 yards and 84 points the Tigers scored with Franklin running the offense, 1,082 (86 percent) and 71 (85 percent) came in the second half of wins over Arkansas State, ULM, Arkansas and Alabama A&M, and losses to Texas A&M, Alabama and Oklahoma." he failed to take that into account in his analysis. He only had one successful drive, each, out of 7 total against Texas A&M and Vandy.  He was completely stymied by Oklahoma and Alabama.

It was a nice attempt an an analysis, however.

Talking about getting defensive.  Is your name Sean White?

Vitale did enough to show that much of JF3's production came in the second half. 

[lionheartkc 6,150]

46 minutes ago, aujeff11 said:

Talking about getting defensive.  Is your name Sean White?

Not defensive at all, just a fan of accurate analysis. Unfortunately, when people post less than accurate analysis, people who either don't understand it well enough to realize it is off, or people who have an agenda it supports, run with it.... it spreads... and you have a ground swell of people who preach fallacies as gospel. 

47 minutes ago, aujeff11 said:

Vitale did enough to show that much of JF3's production came in the second half.

The fact that it came in the second half was irrelevant. The fact that it came almost entirely against our most over matched opponents should have told him that it negated his entire thesis, just like the fact that he lumped in the time that Sean was playing with an injury to his throwing arm skewed those numbers.

Reading the article, I don't think the writer had any sort of agenda, but he needs to brush up on his statistical analysis skills before running with something like that.

[Eagle-1 3,821]

21 minutes ago, lionheartkc said:

Not defensive at all, just a fan of accurate analysis. Unfortunately, when people post less than accurate analysis, people who either don't understand it well enough to realize it is off, or people who have an agenda it supports, run with it.... it spreads... and you have a ground swell of people who preach fallacies as gospel. 

The fact that it came in the second half was irrelevant. The fact that it came almost entirely against our most over matched opponents should have told him that it negated his entire thesis, just like the fact that he lumped in the time that Sean was playing with an injury to his throwing arm skewed those numbers.

Reading the article, I don't think the writer had any sort of agenda, but he needs to brush up on his statistical analysis skills before running with something like that.

Agree. This article has a lot of holes in it. You asked me yesterday to post negative stats about Gus 's passing offense. I don't have to. Stat has already put in the work, read above. I get that Sean had a good completion percentage prior to injury, but the truth is that our passing game under Malzahn has scared no one.It is no secret that the way to defend Auburn is to load 8-9 in the box, stop the run, and if you have the personnel to do it you have a very good chance to win. We will see if Stidham can save Gus next season, and I hope he can. He won't, however if Gus continues to run the ball 80% of the time into 9 man fronts

 

 

 

 

[lionheartkc 6,150]

Just now, Eagle-1 said:

Agree. This article has a lot of holes in it. You asked me yesterday to post negative stats about Gus 's passing offense. I don't have to. Stat has already put in the work, read above. I get that Sean had a good completion percentage prior to injury, but the truth is that our passing game under Malzahn has scared no one.It is no secret that the way to defend Auburn is to load 8-9 in the box, stop the run, and if you have the personnel to do it you have a very good chance to win. We will see if Stidham can save Gus next season, and I hope he can. He won't, however if Gus continues to run the ball 80% of the time into 9 man fronts

I believe I asked you to post worst since stats that negate Stat's best since stats.  

I disagree that any team could just stack 8-9 in the box and take us down when Sean was healthy.  He would have picked them apart. 

I do totally agree that we haven't had a truly scary passing game since Cam.... though Todd had a killer pump fake.  My biggest beef about our game plan is that Gus was totally happy with a plan that continually put us in 3rd and 3 or longer, because even though Sean could make the passes to get us out of it more often than not, it made us that much more predictable and setup the D to tee off on him every time.

[Eagle-1 3,821]

29 minutes ago, lionheartkc said:

I believe I asked you to post worst since stats that negate Stat's best since stats.  

I disagree that any team could just stack 8-9 in the box and take us down when Sean was healthy.  He would have picked them apart. 

I do totally agree that we haven't had a truly scary passing game since Cam.... though Todd had a killer pump fake.  My biggest beef about our game plan is that Gus was totally happy with a plan that continually put us in 3rd and 3 or longer, because even though Sean could make the passes to get us out of it more often than not, it made us that much more predictable and setup the D to tee off on him every time.

I didn't say any team, but teams that could somewhat match up physically. It is almost beyond debate that Gus 's offensive scheme has been very ineffective when we have to rely on moving the football through the air. What I am really curious to see is how he will use Stidham. If he tries to turn Stidham into Nick Marshal it will be a disaster. Stidham is a gunslinger with the ability to run. What is going to determine Gus"s future at Auburn is if he can effectively modify the offense to take advantage of Stidhams strengths. 

 

[lionheartkc 6,150]

1 minute ago, Eagle-1 said:

I didn't say any team, but teams that could somewhat match up physically. It is almost beyond debate that Gus 's offensive scheme has been very ineffective when we have to rely on moving the football through the air. What I am really curious to see is how he will use Stidham. If he tries to turn Stidham into Nick Marshal it will be a disaster. Stidham is a gunslinger with the ability to run. What is going to determine Gus"s future at Auburn is if he can effectively modify the offense to take advantage of Stidhams strengths. 

I honestly don't think you have anything to worry about, With the know commodities of Stidham/White and our stable of receivers, and no reason to waste time on a project QB, Gus has a whole off-season to get the team ready for balanced attack (with all of the effort given to Franklin, the rest of the team was likely preparing for a read-option attack this year and the passing game didn't get the attention it needed). I wouldn't expect less than mid 200s in passing for any game next year, with a move into the 300 or more for teams with weak pass defenses, and I would also expect Pettway to continue on his 100-150 yard per game pace with out other backs/QBs adding 100+ each game.

My biggest concern with Gus is that he get help figuring out how to be more creative in the red zone. Other teams make scoring from less than 20 out look easy compared to us.

[Tiger 8,823]

5 minutes ago, Eagle-1 said:

I didn't say any team, but teams that could somewhat match up physically. It is almost beyond debate that Gus 's offensive scheme has been very ineffective when we have to rely on moving the football through the air. What I am really curious to see is how he will use Stidham. If he tries to turn Stidham into Nick Marshal it will be a disaster. Stidham is a gunslinger with the ability to run. What is going to determine Gus"s future at Auburn is if he can effectively modify the offense to take advantage of Stidhams strengths. 

 

I think what Gus wanted to do with JJ would be in the realm of what CGM will want to do with Stidham...I think he will try to make our O look like the 1st half of the Louisville game to start 2015. Can't remember if we used JJ on QB powers then but I doubt JS will be asked to do much of that except maybe a short yardage situation here and there

[lionheartkc 6,150]

10 minutes ago, Tiger said:

I think what Gus wanted to do with JJ would be in the realm of what CGM will want to do with Stidham...I think he will try to make our O look like the 1st half of the Louisville game to start 2015. Can't remember if we used JJ on QB powers then but I doubt JS will be asked to do much of that except maybe a short yardage situation here and there

As far as Stidham's wheels, I'd expect to see something similar to what we did with Sean, with the hope that we might get a little Baker Mayfield action as well.

[Tiger 8,823]

4 minutes ago, lionheartkc said:

As far as Stidham's wheels, I'd expect to see something similar to what we did with Sean, with the hope that we might get a little Baker Mayfield action as well.

One thing is for sure, we are going to need JS's legs to bail us out of some predictable playcalling that is likely to occur. Here's to hoping Gus gets his mojo back though