Is This a Solution?

[icanthearyou 4,463]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/iran-may-drain-offshore-crude-233437944.html

 

Can we afford to alienate the Saudis and the Israelis?  Can we afford not to?

 

https://www.americansecurityproject.org/defining-the-russia-iran-relationship/

[autigeremt 6,686]

Let's see....pick Iran (who is a terrorist state looking for cash and nuclear arms), Saudi Arabia (another terrorist state looking to increase cash flow and gain more power in the middle east) or Israel (who for the most part is the best US Ally outside of the UK)? 

Dealing with Iran is like dealing with Russia.....at some point that snake is going to turn around and bite you. It's in their DNA. Saudi Arabia.....like a poison dart frog. As long as you leave them alone they typically will leave you alone. However they are dangerous and can be very destructive in small doses. 

I'm all in with Israel, though they do like to spy on us from time to time. 

[Didba 5,256]

Israel is the lesser of the evils. 

[icanthearyou 4,463]

I was hoping for comments on the idea that a new agreement with the Iranians would release millions of barrels of oil into the market.

Assuming this happens, would the trade off for lower fuel prices and, easing inflation worth it?  For Europe?

Personally, I feel what we have done to the Iranian people post WWII is criminal.  Operation Ajax and supporting the Shah are about as ruthless as it gets, not to mention the double dealing during the Iran/Iraq war, the cyber attacks, assassinations.  When it comes to Iran, we have been the provocateurs.

[autigeremt 6,686]

5 minutes ago, icanthearyou said:

I was hoping for comments on the idea that a new agreement with the Iranians would release millions of barrels of oil into the market.

Assuming this happens, would the trade off for lower fuel prices and, easing inflation worth it?  For Europe?

Personally, I feel what we have done to the Iranian people post WWII is criminal.  Operation Ajax and supporting the Shah are about as ruthless as it gets, not to mention the double dealing during the Iran/Iraq war, the cyber attacks, assassinations.  When it comes to Iran, we have been the provocateurs.

True….but todays Iranians in charge wish to see us scorched into glass. Nothing has changed on that front. 

[icanthearyou 4,463]

8 minutes ago, autigeremt said:

True….but todays Iranians in charge wish to see us scorched into glass. Nothing has changed on that front. 

That is only one side of the story, the hardliners.  There are many, many people in Iran who believe their best future means a positive relationship with the U.S.

I believe their rhetoric towards us would change dramatically if we were more honest with them and,  weren't so cozy with the Saudis.  They truly hate the House of Saud. 

 

[autigeremt 6,686]

12 minutes ago, icanthearyou said:

That is only one side of the story, the hardliners.  There are many, many people in Iran who believe their best future means a positive relationship with the U.S.

I believe their rhetoric towards us would change dramatically if we were more honest with them and,  weren't so cozy with the Saudis.  They truly hate the House of Saud. 

 

Yep! That Sunni/Shia rivalry is very real. 

[icanthearyou 4,463]

1 minute ago, autigeremt said:

Yep! That Sunni/Shia rivalry is very real. 

Yep and, it goes even deeper than that. 

[autigeremt 6,686]

Just now, icanthearyou said:

Yep and, it goes even deeper than that. 

I only saw it play out while there a couple decades ago. It’s deeply rooted for sure. 

[icanthearyou 4,463]

13 minutes ago, autigeremt said:

I only saw it play out while there a couple decades ago. It’s deeply rooted for sure. 

Yes, I hope things will change sooner than later in Iran.  If the current trend continues, Iran will become everything they hate about the Saudis. 

IMHO, the real threat from Iran and to Iran itself is the Revolutionary Guard.  They have become very corrupt. 

[CoffeeTiger 5,169]

11 hours ago, icanthearyou said:

I was hoping for comments on the idea that a new agreement with the Iranians would release millions of barrels of oil into the market.

Assuming this happens, would the trade off for lower fuel prices and, easing inflation worth it?  For Europe?

Personally, I feel what we have done to the Iranian people post WWII is criminal.  Operation Ajax and supporting the Shah are about as ruthless as it gets, not to mention the double dealing during the Iran/Iraq war, the cyber attacks, assassinations.  When it comes to Iran, we have been the provocateurs.

I think it's something everyone should strongly consider. 

Not that Iran is overall 'better' than Russia in any way. Iran is even sending weapons to Russia as we speak, but the reality is that the world needs oil and Iran isn't the country that's invading it's neighbors at the moment. 

[icanthearyou 4,463]

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/iran-return-oil-markets-impact-220000953.html

 

The one point the article fails to mention is the fact that Iran has huge reserves of NG.  Could be very important to Europe.

Edited August 30, 2022 by icanthearyou

[autigeremt 6,686]

1 hour ago, icanthearyou said:

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/iran-return-oil-markets-impact-220000953.html

 

The one point the article fails to mention is the fact that Iran has huge reserves of NG.  Could be very important to Europe.

Irans close ties to Moscow give me even more reservation but I could see the Biden Administration getting behind it. 

Edited August 30, 2022 by autigeremt

[icanthearyou 4,463]

10 minutes ago, autigeremt said:

Irans close ties to Moscow give me even more reservation but I could see the Biden Administration getting behind it. 

Should we attempt to change their relationship with Putin or, push them even further towards Putin?  Does energy change the calculus? 

Is there any merit to a new nuclear agreement with Iran?

[icanthearyou 4,463]

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/saudi-arabia-output-cuts-threat-000000363.html

[autigeremt 6,686]

On 8/30/2022 at 1:59 PM, icanthearyou said:

Should we attempt to change their relationship with Putin or, push them even further towards Putin?  Does energy change the calculus? 

Is there any merit to a new nuclear agreement with Iran?

I do not believe so, unless they have a change in leadership. 

[icanthearyou 4,463]

This is a poorly written article but, it conveys the message in a general sense.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/oil-has-been-falling-opec-cuts-could-drive-them-up-again-51662017400?siteid=yhoof2

Think about what the Fed is attempting to do, curb inflation without causing recession.

Think about what the oil producers are attempting to do, create inflation without causing recession.

The point is this,,, the world's productivity is still driven by oil and NG.  We cannot keep playing this game the same way.  The Saudis are are sending us a clear message.  We seem to lack the diplomatic skill and/or, lack the economic power to respond.

[GoAU 1,600]

I definitely see the logic behind what you are saying, but as long as the hardliners have a firm grasp on power in Iran, I believe we have to keep them cut off.   If they are allowed to develop a nuclear weapon, I believe the hard liners there are absolutely crazy enough to use it - on Israel, the Saudis or both.   
 

Any attempt to deal with them for oil, NG or a nuke deal just further entrenches the hardliners.  

[icanthearyou 4,463]

5 hours ago, GoAU said:

I definitely see the logic behind what you are saying, but as long as the hardliners have a firm grasp on power in Iran, I believe we have to keep them cut off.   If they are allowed to develop a nuclear weapon, I believe the hard liners there are absolutely crazy enough to use it - on Israel, the Saudis or both.   
 

Any attempt to deal with them for oil, NG or a nuke deal just further entrenches the hardliners.  

I respect that but,,, I disagree.  The world is changing.

[autigeremt 6,686]

3 hours ago, icanthearyou said:

I respect that but,,, I disagree.  The world is changing.

They've said that one before. 

[icanthearyou 4,463]

19 minutes ago, autigeremt said:

They've said that one before. 

Okay.

I still believe the Iranians to be a more honest player than the House of Saud, particularly now that MBS is in charge.

[GoAU 1,600]

6 hours ago, icanthearyou said:

I respect that but,,, I disagree.  The world is changing.

It may be, but until the hardliners (who aren’t changing) in Iran are gone, we shouldn’t do anything that could potentially entrench or empower them.  
 

as a matter of fact, letting that regime crumble could hasten the change your speaking of.  

Edited September 3, 2022 by GoAU

[icanthearyou 4,463]

2 hours ago, GoAU said:

It may be, but until the hardliners (who aren’t changing) in Iran are gone, we shouldn’t do anything that could potentially entrench or empower them.  
 

as a matter of fact, letting that regime crumble could hasten the change your speaking of.  

Not so sure about that.  At one time, all the moderates needed was a signal of support from us.  We have failed the people of Iran over and over again.

Still, I trust the everyone outside of the Revolutionary Guard more than I trust MBS.  That includes the Ayatollah. 

[autigeremt 6,686]

7 hours ago, icanthearyou said:

Okay.

I still believe the Iranians to be a more honest player than the House of Saud, particularly now that MBS is in charge.

Not the ones in power currently! One in the same at best.