2023 Softball vs Alabama

[Golden Eagle 370]

2 hours ago, AUBwins said:

Perfect! These are pretty close to how it should be IMO.

There are 3 groups that rank D1 softball teams on a weekly basis (which leads to a lot of confusion, IMHO)...ESPN shows their rankings on televised games.  D1 Softball which you have shown here.   The USA Today/NFCA Coaches ranking and the ESPN rankings have just come out and they BOTH have Alabama #16 and Auburn #17...is anyone surprised?  Top 16 teams get to host a regional.  Auburn needs a very strong finish to the season to jump into the top 16.  D1 Softball's latest projection of the field of 64 for the post season was published last Friday (Apr 21).  It has Alabama hosting a regional and Auburn as a second seed in the Florida State regional (again). 

[AUBwins 10,075]

29 minutes ago, Golden Eagle said:

There are 3 groups that rank D1 softball teams on a weekly basis (which leads to a lot of confusion, IMHO)...ESPN shows their rankings on televised games.  D1 Softball which you have shown here.   The USA Today/NFCA Coaches ranking and the ESPN rankings have just come out and they BOTH have Alabama #16 and Auburn #17...is anyone surprised?  Top 16 teams get to host a regional.  Auburn needs a very strong finish to the season to jump into the top 16.  D1 Softball's latest projection of the field of 64 for the post season was published last Friday (Apr 21).  It has Alabama hosting a regional and Auburn as a second seed in the Florida State regional (again). 

Not surprised. That would be a hose job.

[ArgoEagle 1,792]

7 hours ago, Golden Eagle said:

There are 3 groups that rank D1 softball teams on a weekly basis (which leads to a lot of confusion, IMHO)...ESPN shows their rankings on televised games.  D1 Softball which you have shown here.   The USA Today/NFCA Coaches ranking and the ESPN rankings have just come out and they BOTH have Alabama #16 and Auburn #17...is anyone surprised?  Top 16 teams get to host a regional.  Auburn needs a very strong finish to the season to jump into the top 16.  D1 Softball's latest projection of the field of 64 for the post season was published last Friday (Apr 21).  It has Alabama hosting a regional and Auburn as a second seed in the Florida State regional (again). 

I'm bout ready to take a freshly sharpened Tomahawk and shove it straight up that committee's bungholes that keep sending us to Tallahassee every flippin year!!!!

[OlderWhiskey 954]

Well, actually we went to Clemson last year.  I really don't see us catching FSU; they're ranked #4.  Their 2 seed should be in the high 20s, assuming it's done like basketball.  Note there are 4 SEC teams between 12 and 16, the lone exception being Baylor.  They're a little far away, given the NCAA's proclivity to minimize travel.  We might draw Arkansas, but the PTB try to avoid same conference matchups as well.  It has been done, though, and we didn't play Arkansas this year.  Clemson and Duke are two other possibilities at 6 and 9.  All this discussion based on the assumption that we don't host.  Hosting is based largely based on RPI, where we are currently #19.  

Bama is 14th in RPI.  They have wins over Duke, Texas, and FSU, all Top 10 teams.  Our failure to play a tougher schedule  is coming back to roost.  Bama also has some losses that are hurting them, such as Lehigh, Liberty, and Kennesaw State.  They have LSU at home and Ole Miss on the road left on their schedule.  Their home run and RBI leader, Ashley Prange, was injured against us.  It looked minor, but they took her out of the game.  If she can't go, their chances are diminished.

bottom line, we need to win 5 of the last 6 to have a chance to host (IMO).

[Golden Eagle 370]

17 hours ago, OlderWhiskey said:

Well, actually we went to Clemson last year.  I really don't see us catching FSU; they're ranked #4.  Their 2 seed should be in the high 20s, assuming it's done like basketball.  Note there are 4 SEC teams between 12 and 16, the lone exception being Baylor.  They're a little far away, given the NCAA's proclivity to minimize travel.  We might draw Arkansas, but the PTB try to avoid same conference matchups as well.  It has been done, though, and we didn't play Arkansas this year.  Clemson and Duke are two other possibilities at 6 and 9.  All this discussion based on the assumption that we don't host.  Hosting is based largely based on RPI, where we are currently #19.  

Bama is 14th in RPI.  They have wins over Duke, Texas, and FSU, all Top 10 teams.  Our failure to play a tougher schedule  is coming back to roost.  Bama also has some losses that are hurting them, such as Lehigh, Liberty, and Kennesaw State.  They have LSU at home and Ole Miss on the road left on their schedule.  Their home run and RBI leader, Ashley Prange, was injured against us.  It looked minor, but they took her out of the game.  If she can't go, their chances are diminished.

bottom line, we need to win 5 of the last 6 to have a chance to host (IMO).

After my previous post, I thought about RPI causing LSU and Bama to be ranked ahead of Auburn.   Legitimate point, thank you for bringing it up.  Also, didn't bother to look this up, but I think we played in a regional in Tucson before Clemson?

Here is the April 21 postseason projection by D1 Softball (which says it's based on the April 14th RPI update) if anyone is interested in having a look.  I'm guessing they update the projection every Friday at this point - if so, will be interesting to if Auburn's fate changes over the next couple of weeks.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/softball/article/2023-04-20/2023-softball-field-64-predicted-d1softball

 

[AUBwins 10,075]

3 hours ago, Golden Eagle said:

After my previous post, I thought about RPI causing LSU and Bama to be ranked ahead of Auburn.   Legitimate point, thank you for bringing it up.  Also, didn't bother to look this up, but I think we played in a regional in Tucson before Clemson?

Here is the April 21 postseason projection by D1 Softball (which says it's based on the April 14th RPI update) if anyone is interested in having a look.  I'm guessing they update the projection every Friday at this point - if so, will be interesting to if Auburn's fate changes over the next couple of weeks.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/softball/article/2023-04-20/2023-softball-field-64-predicted-d1softball

 

Texas as the 13 seed is brutal.  If we would win, we would then travel to Austin if they won. 

[OlderWhiskey 954]

We went to Tucson in 2019.  Beat Colorado State twice, but couldn't handle Arizona.