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moe

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Great link, and a good read. I agree that we should have a shot, but the question is "will we get a shot"? I hope so, but think not. But if the worst we do is the Cap One Bowl things could be worse.

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Richard Cirminiello                         

Q:  And the two at-large BCS teams deserve to be ….

A: Auburn and Ohio State with Notre Dame making the Gator Bowl committee very, very happy.  No disrespect to the Irish, who’ll surely capture one of the two bids with a win at Stanford Saturday, but am I the only person who believes Notre Dame is getting way too much credit as the highest ranked two-loss team?  The computers get dogged in many BCS discussions, but remain a vital component in the equation because they see what voters often fail to recognize.  For instance, that the Notre Dame schedule is way softer than most anyone realizes.  It’s not their fault, but it needs to be mentioned and processed that Pittsburgh, Michigan, Purdue, Tennessee and Syracuse have all missed their preseason expectations by a few fathoms.  And that loss to Michigan State, which got uglier with each passing weekend, is the most egregious of any school still in the at-large hunt.  Notre Dame is a very good football team, but there are more deserving options.

At worst, Auburn is the second best team in the SEC.  They’ve gelled since losing the opener to Georgia Tech, and Saturday’s win over Alabama was the definition of domination from a team that’s a couple of errant field goals in Baton Rouge from riding a 10-game winning streak into the postseason.  If a playoff existed, the Tigers are the kind of team that’s cresting at the ideal time and that could make a surprising run to the title game.  Ohio State has won six straight to earn a share of the Big Ten title, and its two losses were against No. 2 Texas and No. 4 Penn State by a total of 10 points.  Now that the offense is clicking, the Buckeyes are clearly one of the seven or eight best teams in the nation and just a shade more complete than Notre Dame, something they might very well get a chance to prove in Tempe on Jan. 2.

Mark Risley   

Q:  And the two at-large BCS teams deserve to be …

A:  This question is a bit difficult to answer with a handful of key games remaining. So, a few assumptions need to be made in order to provide an answer two weeks before the pairings are announced. If any single one of these assumptions is proven false, then the answer becomes entirely different…

Assumption #1 – VA Tech beats North Carolina & wins the ACC championship game

Assumption #2 – Texas wins the Big XII championship game

Assumption #3 – Southern California beats UCLA on Dec. 3

Assumption #4 – LSU beats Arkansas on Friday

The one assumption not worth making at this point is deciding which team will prevail in the SEC championship game. Seems like most of the country may have forgotten about the talent on this year’s Georgia squad, and with a healthy D.J. Shockley, the Bulldogs appear very evenly matched against LSU in the Georgia Dome. That being said…

The first at-large berth should go to Ohio State. At the moment, there may not be a team that is playing better. The headlines this past weekend talked about the fourth-quarter comeback over Michigan, but what’s forgotten is that despite two key turnovers, the Buckeyes outplayed the Wolverines for the better part of the first three quarters. Sure, the Buckeyes have two losses, but when one is to the BCS No. 2 and the other is to the BCS No. 3, it isn’t difficult to justify an at-large bid when comparing against some of the one-loss teams. In addition, the Big Ten will send six other teams to bowls, and Ohio State trashed three of those squads. Had the Bucks’ QB situation not been so unsettled at the time of the UT game, who knows what we’d be talking about right now.

If LSU beats Georgia, the second at-large berth should go to Auburn, and if Georgia beats LSU, the second at-large berth should go to LSU. … Notre Dame has looked great for most of the season, but regardless of its effort against USC, its only true quality win was against Michigan. … Oregon has only the one loss (which happens to be against the BCS No. 1 team), but lackluster second half performances and narrow wins against two of the bottom three teams in its conference raise a red flag. I’m sure the Pac-10 folks are sick and tired of being compared to the ACC/SEC, but both Auburn and LSU are more balanced than Oregon. The only way to find out for sure is a head-to-head match-up, but, subjectively, AU/LSU’s defense appears more impressive than Oregon’s offense. … When comparing Auburn to Miami (assuming Miami beats Virginia this weekend), it’s like splitting hairs. Both lost by three points on the road to a quality conference foe, and both lost at home to GA Tech. After seeing each team play several times this season, you can conclude that both of the defenses are outstanding, but Auburn appears to have a decisive edge on offense – especially in the running game. LSU obviously holds the head-to-head vs. Auburn, so if Georgia wins the SEC, LSU gets the nod over Auburn, Miami, and Oregon. After all, it would seem silly to penalize LSU for losing an extra game that Miami/Oregon didn’t have to play.

All the ramblings and disclaimers in the previous paragraph are just a waste of time, though. We’re all very aware that TV dollars & ticket revenue drive the BCS bus, which is exactly why Notre Dame will garner one of the two BCS at-large bids. Assuming, of course, that the Irish offense is clicking this Saturday in Palo Alto.

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