RunInRed 16,492 Posted January 7, 2008 Share Posted January 7, 2008 We are a little over a day away, time for our soon to be famous political prediction thread. Dems: Obama - Winner (big, possibly double digits) Clinton - 2nd Edwards - 3rd Repubs: McCain - Winner Romney - 2nd Huckabee - 3rd Thompson - 4th Headlines Wednesday morning: Clinton on the ropes as Obama-mania hits full stride Clinton: I'm running a national campaign, I'm the only one with the "experience" to win, blah blah blah Romney gives Howard Dean-like rant about why his campaign is not winning McCain, the "new" conservative voice of reason McCain vs Huckabee battle takes center stage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TitanTiger 20,511 Posted January 7, 2008 Share Posted January 7, 2008 Democrats 1 - Obama by 11 2 - Hillary 3 - Edwards Clinton campaign spirals into full on freakout mode. Republicans 1 - McCain by 5 2 - Romney 3 - Huckabee (makes a little jump and gets about 15-16%) Huck and McCain become the defacto front runners but don't get nearly as nasty as Romney has been to either of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBC1124 0 Posted January 7, 2008 Share Posted January 7, 2008 DEMS 1. OBAMA 2. EDWARDS 3. CLINTON REP 1. MCcAIN 2. HUCKABEE 3. ROMNEY Right now Huckabee is the flavor that is taking the nation by storm. Even though he hasn't really campaigned there, he will get a large "BUMP" because of the win in Iowa. It is going to be a close race on the Right. The left on the other hand could be out of control pretty early, if Obama takes NH which I think he will. Just my two cents worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDM4AU 336 Posted January 7, 2008 Share Posted January 7, 2008 McCain Romney Paul Obama Clinton Edwards Edwards will be closer to Clinton than Clinton to Obama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RunInRed 16,492 Posted January 7, 2008 Author Share Posted January 7, 2008 DEMS 1. OBAMA 2. EDWARDS 3. CLINTON REP 1. MCcAIN 2. HUCKABEE 3. ROMNEY Right now Huckabee is the flavor that is taking the nation by storm. Even though he hasn't really campaigned there, he will get a large "BUMP" because of the win in Iowa. It is going to be a close race on the Right. The left on the other hand could be out of control pretty early, if Obama takes NH which I think he will. Just my two cents worth. I think Huckabee fizzles out. He definitely has not seen any kind of significant bump in the NH polls. McCain and Guiliani will ultimately be fighting for the Republican nomination. As for the Dems, I think Obama takes NH, Nevada and SC going into Super Tuesday. However, I definitely would not count Hillary out regardless what happens tomorrow night. With Florida, New York, Georgia, Illinois, California and others voting Feb 5th, this race is definitely far from over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger Al 0 Posted January 7, 2008 Share Posted January 7, 2008 Good Guys Obama Edwards Clinton Richardson Kucinich republicans McCain Romney Huckabee Thompson Paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TitanTiger 20,511 Posted January 7, 2008 Share Posted January 7, 2008 I don't think Huckabee fizzles at all. Now I do think McCain will overtake Romney and the battle will come down to him and Huck. But Huck will likely win South Carolina. He's going to be around and frankly, the more people actually hear him speak rather than what people say about him, the more they like him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RunInRed 16,492 Posted January 7, 2008 Author Share Posted January 7, 2008 I don't think Huckabee fizzles at all. Now I do think McCain will overtake Romney and the battle will come down to him and Huck. But Huck will likely win South Carolina. He's going to be around and frankly, the more people actually hear him speak rather than what people say about him, the more they like him. Huckabee's staying power long-term would surprise me but we'll see. Where do you put Guiliani in this equation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TitanTiger 20,511 Posted January 7, 2008 Share Posted January 7, 2008 I'm with Tim Russert on this. He's employing a very risky strategy by essentially putting all his eggs in the Florida basket and trying to win in the late innings. Winning NY and Cal would give him delegates, but doesn't really help him in terms of being seen as someone who can win the general election because you can forget a Republican winning either. And Florida is no guarantee for him. His lead was down to 2 points on average in Florida over Huckabee. And that data is from before Iowa. My prediction is that Romney will fade and Giuliani will stick in it to the end, but you're looking at either McCain or Huckabee for the nomination and possibly it being a McCain-Huckabee or Huckabee-McCain ticket in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RunInRed 16,492 Posted January 7, 2008 Author Share Posted January 7, 2008 Hmmm..I think Giuliani's biggest problem (besides he has no platform except a 9/11 stump speech - or as many call it "the politics of fear") is that his base is towards the center. The Republican nominee is going to have to galvanize the evangelical right if he has any chance in the general election. Still, for some reason, I think Giuliani could do well on Super Tuesday, especially along the coasts and in more moderate states. Personally I find a Huckabee ticket a loser for the Repubs. As for the Dems I don't know. What would be most interesting to me is who Obama would choose as a running mate if he was able to grab the nomination. Conventional wisdom would tell you it would have to be a white traditional man who is a hawk and expert on defense and who has lots of "experience" (aka JFK and LBJ) - possibly a Joe Biden? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TexasTiger 13,029 Posted January 8, 2008 Share Posted January 8, 2008 Dems Obama by at least 10 Clinton Edwards Richardson Repugs McCain-- "I'm back, baby!" Romney -- but maybe closer than most folks expect Huck&Rudy-- neck and neck Paul-- about 10% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
autigeremt 6,717 Posted January 9, 2008 Share Posted January 9, 2008 Looks like the big Obama win will be a close loss tonight. WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
otterinbham 0 Posted January 9, 2008 Share Posted January 9, 2008 Looks like the big Obama win will be a close loss tonight. WOW. Not over yet. Giuliani is now running fourth in Florida, according to polling. If those numbers hold, he'll be dead in the water with no hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TexasTiger 13,029 Posted January 9, 2008 Share Posted January 9, 2008 Looks like the big Obama win will be a close loss tonight. WOW. Not over yet. Giuliani is now running fourth in Florida, according to polling. If those numbers hold, he'll be dead in the water with no hope. I've heard he's stronger in the areas yet to report, but regardless of whether he squeaks one out, no major poll picked up on this trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TitanTiger 20,511 Posted January 9, 2008 Share Posted January 9, 2008 The closest I saw was Rasmussen who had his lead shrinking to 7 points the day before. But the others seemed to be 10 or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
otterinbham 0 Posted January 9, 2008 Share Posted January 9, 2008 Looks like the big Obama win will be a close loss tonight. WOW. Not over yet. Giuliani is now running fourth in Florida, according to polling. If those numbers hold, he'll be dead in the water with no hope. I've heard he's stronger in the areas yet to report, but regardless of whether he squeaks one out, no major poll picked up on this trend. Yep. But even if Hillary squeaks one out in New Hampshire, I think that's a pyrrhic victory at best for her. After all, this is a candidate who was supposed to have a grand march to her coronation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TexasTiger 13,029 Posted January 9, 2008 Share Posted January 9, 2008 Looks like the big Obama win will be a close loss tonight. WOW. Not over yet. Giuliani is now running fourth in Florida, according to polling. If those numbers hold, he'll be dead in the water with no hope. I've heard he's stronger in the areas yet to report, but regardless of whether he squeaks one out, no major poll picked up on this trend. Yep. But even if Hillary squeaks one out in New Hampshire, I think that's a pyrrhic victory at best for her. After all, this is a candidate who was supposed to have a grand march to her coronation. Maybe she'll cry in every primary state now. Seems to have worked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RunInRed 16,492 Posted January 9, 2008 Author Share Posted January 9, 2008 Very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TitanTiger 20,511 Posted January 9, 2008 Share Posted January 9, 2008 Ugh. I really don't like her. I think I (and everyone else) probably knew that already, but seeing this tonight, the feeling in the pit of my stomach just reinforces how much I don't like nor trust her. I could wake up the day after Election Day with Obama winning and at least not have a sinking feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
otterinbham 0 Posted January 9, 2008 Share Posted January 9, 2008 I'm guessing that the Obama supporters all got hammered at the celebration party, and were too hung over and forgot to vote. Ahhhh, youth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TitanTiger 20,511 Posted January 9, 2008 Share Posted January 9, 2008 Two theories that have some validity: 1. The crying thing actually endeared Hillary to women voters. She won big with that group here while losing them to Obama in Iowa. 2. Independent voters, seeing the 10-12% leads Obama had in the polls ended up voting in the GOP primary more to boost McCain over Romney since it was a much closer race in the polls. That hurt Obama as he does much better with independents than Hillary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rexbo 104 Posted January 9, 2008 Share Posted January 9, 2008 I don't know how Obama lost in NH; with the media love fest over the past week I expected him to even beat out LSU in the AP poll today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
otterinbham 0 Posted January 9, 2008 Share Posted January 9, 2008 Two theories that have some validity: 1. The crying thing actually endeared Hillary to women voters. She won big with that group here while losing them to Obama in Iowa. 2. Independent voters, seeing the 10-12% leads Obama had in the polls ended up voting in the GOP primary more to boost McCain over Romney since it was a much closer race in the polls. That hurt Obama as he does much better with independents than Hillary. Margaret Thatcher never cried. Could you imagine Margaret Thatcher crying? She has bigger testicles than your average NFL lineman. And she never cried. Now that is a woman who would mop the floor in 2008. Maybe somebody can channel her in the next election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RunInRed 16,492 Posted January 9, 2008 Author Share Posted January 9, 2008 Yes we can. Great speech. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TitanTiger 20,511 Posted January 9, 2008 Share Posted January 9, 2008 Two theories that have some validity: 1. The crying thing actually endeared Hillary to women voters. She won big with that group here while losing them to Obama in Iowa. 2. Independent voters, seeing the 10-12% leads Obama had in the polls ended up voting in the GOP primary more to boost McCain over Romney since it was a much closer race in the polls. That hurt Obama as he does much better with independents than Hillary. Margaret Thatcher never cried. Could you imagine Margaret Thatcher crying? She has bigger testicles than your average NFL lineman. And she never cried. Now that is a woman who would mop the floor in 2008. Maybe somebody can channel her in the next election. The British aren't the saps we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.