Alabama predictions

[AUdmd07 2]

Also, I don't understand why you are willing to bet the farm that Bama won't go 5-7 PCchamp. The way they finished last year, the question marks they have at LB and OL, and the inconsistent play of the JPW are all strikes against them.

Assuming that they lose to Clemson and win against the other three rent a wins they play OOC (thought they lost to ULM last year), Bama would need to go 4-4 in conference to assure themselves of a winning season and an improvement from last year's regular season. Let's look at their conference games.

@ Arkansas - This game is on the road in the SEC. It's not an automatic win like most Bama fans are saying. We haven't seen Bobby Petrino coach in the SEC yet (as a head coach). The Hogs might surprise us.

Toss up

@ - If Bama couldn't win last year at home against a team that hadn't found its identity, what makes you think they can win this one against a Georgia team that is loaded across the board?

Very Probable loss

v.s. - This is a bowl win team from last year that finished with more wins than Bama. They did lose an All SEC QB in Woodson, WR in Burton, TE in Tamme, and RB/KR/PR in Little, but they return a stable of running backs and a veteran offensive line. Assuming that the new starting QB gets into a rhythm, this could be a tough offensive team to stop again. Defensively, this is a unit that has improved each of the past three years statistically and could prove to be the best defense Brooks has had at UK.

Slight advantage for Bama

v.s. Ole Miss - The combination of getting a coaching upgrade in Nutt and a QB upgrade in Snead will be huge for Ole Miss. They already have talent that Orgeron recruited and now they have a coach that will be better at utilizing it. This game is truly a toss up because Bama struggled mightily against this more or less same Ole Miss team last year with poor coaching and QB play.

Toss up

@ - When you get embarassed in a rivalry game, you usually come out swinging the next year. Fulmer hasn't made a habit of losing to Bama in his career and I don't expect him to start, especially at home. There is a change at QB and also to a spread offense for UT, which I think will cause problems for the Alabama defense's front 7. Defensively I don't think you can expect a repeat of last year's embarassing showing against Bama or JPW's explosive performance against the Vols. This game is on the road and against a team that loves to beat Bama. Advantage UT.

Slight advantage UT

@ - There will be a lot of media hype for this game because of Saban, but I don't think the game will live up to the hype. LSU on the road at night with that defense and QB that will likely be settled will be good enough to beat bama. By how much, I don't know, but I can't honestly see Bama pulling this one off.

Probable loss

v.s. - I'm sure Bama is tired of losing to Croom and will probably be fired up to win a conference game again after losing two straight to UT and LSU. I am not sure State will be able to duplicate last year's performance, but I am not convinced that they won't be able to either. From what they showed me last year, they are able to match up very well with Bama, especially against Bama's passing game. It will be interesting to see if Croom can field a serviceable offense again that can complement the stiffling defense he has groomed down in Starkville. I don't see a decided advantage for Bama in what will likely be an 11:30 kickoff.

Toss up

v.s. - The Iron Bowl is rarely decided on paper, but assuming that it were, how can you say that Bama has a decided advantage over Auburn this year? Like posters before have said, it's push across the board at most positions and I think by late November Auburn will have a QB settled in and ready to hand Bama loss number 7 in a row. At best, this game is a toss up.

Toss up

By these predictions (which I feel are fairly realistic), that's 4 toss ups, a win v.s. UK, a loss v.s. UT, and two likely losses against UGA and LSU.

Best case scenario is win all 4 toss ups plus UK makes Bama 5-3 in conference, 8-4 overall.

Win three toss ups makes it 4-4, 7-5 overall.

Split the toss ups and you are 3-5, 6-6 overall.

Win one toss up and you have 2-6, 5-7 overall.

Don't win a single toss up and it's 1-7, 4-8 overall.

I think a lot of us agree that Bama won't likely win all 4 of those toss up games and also won't likely lose all 4 of them either. So somewhere in between is where they'll have a strong possibility of falling, and 5-7 isn't outside of the question.

[PChamp119 96]

It should be a fun season

Exactly! I can't Wait!

[BamaFanOnBeach 4]

As a Bama fan, I don't think 5-7 is out of the realm of possibility, but I think it is more of a worst case scenario. I definately wouldn't bet the farm against it with all the question marks Bama has. I do think Bama will be a better team this year than last, but so will most of the SEC teams on Bama's schedule.

I generally take a good look at timing of games and schedules in who may or may not win - a lot of people don't seem to do that. For example, the Auburn vs Tennessee game. All things being equal I think Auburn is the better team. However, Auburn will be coming off two physical games against MSU and LSU (both of which I think they will win) and Tennessee will be coming off a game with Florida, but they have the week before off. I don't think Florida is that physical of a team, so I don't think Tennessee will be as be as "beat up" as Auburn may be. I still think Auburn pulls this game out because they are at home, but I would probably predict Tennessee in this one if it was at Tennessee.

My personal predictions for Bama this are 3 wins against Tulane, Western Kentucky, and Arkansas State. There were a lot of factors that played into the loss to La Monroe that I don't see happening this year. I think Bama having Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Miss State at home will help Bama win the majority of these games and I think even though Arkansas is on the road, Bama will have the advantage and be the favorite vs Arkansas because of the momentum of two (easy) wins in a row and Arkansas most likely coming off a beating at Texas. I also think Bama pulls one (and maybe even a longshot two) upsets against Clemson, Georgia, Tennessee, LSU or Auburn. So I see Bama winning a realistic 7-8 games overall in the regular season - which I think will be considered a succussful year by most Bama fans.

[Mikey 16,696]

Since the original question was predictions for Alabama's season, I think 5-7 will be about right. That leaves them out of a bowl game, which will probably be a relief after successive trips to Shreveport.

That is just stupid. Not even Auburn fans that love to bash Alabama truly think they will go 5-7. Why not post a real prediction. If you really think they will go 5-7, I will bet you anything in the world - my life, money, pride, banning AUNation - anything. That is the stupiest prediction ever.

UAT will almost certainly lose to Clemson, Tennessee, LSU, Georgia and Auburn. They should split with Ol Miss, State, Arky and Kentucky, and there's your 5-7, a record much more likely than, say, 7-5.

That's my real prediction. I'll bet as you described: You put up a million dollars, I'll put up a ten-spot. Done?

[Mikey 16,696]

Hey, I totally agree with you. I don't see how any fan could do that. I believe in trying to be realistic about the other team, but I will never say the words "Auburn will beat Bama". Even these last 6 years when no one predicted us to win, I held out hope until the last play.

Wasn't it '05, when 20 of 21 state sports writers picked Brodie & Co. ?

[CircleDrill 178]

Wasn't it '05, when 20 of 21 state sports writers picked Brodie & Co. ?

Name a year other than 2007 when a majority of bammer sports media has picked us to win?

[PChamp119 96]

That's my real prediction. I'll bet as you described: You put up a million dollars, I'll put up a ten-spot. Done?

Any bet (and I'll give you 10:1 odds)

I find it funny everyone expects them to easily lose to UT when they raped them last year. LSU, I agree they will likely lose, but they played them REALLY close last year. Not saying they'll win, but not necessarily a gimme for LSU. I wouldn't be shocked if Bama pulled any game off this year, other than UGA. Clemson I'd be surprised with as well.

[BamaGrad03 0]

I wouldn't call bama/msu a toss up anymore than id call auburn/msu a toss up.

Both AU and UA were much better teams than was MSU last year. Both losses were very freaky.

[WarTiger 3,915]

I wouldn't call bama/msu a toss up anymore than id call auburn/msu a toss up.

Both AU and UA were much better teams than was MSU last year. Both losses were very freaky.

Interestingly enough the only preseason mag that I picked up this year has the uat/msu game as the only toss up on uat's schedule. It has Clemson, UGA, Tennessee, LSU, and Auburn all as losses.

In contrast it has all auburn games as WINS except 3 toss ups: LSU, West Virginia, and UGA. Nothing for Auburn is set as a certain loss.

[BamaGrad03 0]

I don't know how anyone could put UT up as a certain loss for Alabama. We only beat them by 182 points last year...without 5 of our best players.

Sure we could lose to them. But to have it anything but a toss up is a joke.

What's new this year vs last year that allows them to erase a 30 point defecit?

[WarTiger 3,915]

It could have something to do with them winning 6 of their last 7 to close out the season and winning the east in the process. It could also have a lot to do with the lack of depth alabama has on defense. Not to mention that while there may be talent at the WR position at alabama, its totally unproven at this point, thus no go to guy.

I don't really know a whole lot about tennessee or what they have returning, except that RB that is very good. Defensively I have no idea what they bring back.

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

I don't know how anyone could put UT up as a certain loss for Alabama. We only beat them by 182 points last year...without 5 of our best players.

Sure we could lose to them. But to have it anything but a toss up is a joke.

What's new this year vs last year that allows them to erase a 30 point defecit?

Another year of Saban's coaching

[BamaFanOnBeach 4]

I will be surprised if Bama can beat UT on the road this year - I think the talent level of both teams is close enough that either team could win, but after the beat down last year I can't see UT not being ready for this game.

If the best team always won, there would be no need to play the game! Upsets are what make college football so great! I can't wait for the season to start!!

[quietfan 233]

I will be surprised if Bama can beat UT on the road this year - I think the talent level of both teams is close enough that either team could win, but after the beat down last year I can't see UT not being ready for this game.

...that little subpoena incident in Birmingham two weeks ago may also give the Vols an extra motivational factor.

[AUisAll 2]

You Aub's should be ashamed of yourself for questioning the bammers. $abear is the greatest and everyone knows it. H was 6-6 last year and lost to LA MO but that is irrelevant-he is the greatest. He lost to UAB while at LSU but that irrelevant-he is the greatest. He was a miserable failure at Miami but that is irrelevant-he is the greatest. He hires Dale Carnigie or whoever it was to motivate his players because he is the greatest. And if you Aubs think you have a chance in the bake sale or the magazine subscription selling contest, you have lost your mind.

[Bama My Heart 5]

You Aub's should be ashamed of yourself for questioning the bammers. $abear is the greatest and everyone knows it. H was 6-6 last year and lost to LA MO but that is irrelevant-he is the greatest. He lost to UAB while at LSU but that irrelevant-he is the greatest. He was a miserable failure at Miami but that is irrelevant-he is the greatest. He hires Dale Carnigie or whoever it was to motivate his players because he is the greatest. And if you Aubs think you have a chance in the bake sale or the magazine subscription selling contest, you have lost your mind.

Question for you. Would it be ok to you for your team to lose to UAB but then later go on to win a national championship, or would you rather beat Florida, and they win the national championship.

[AUslug 1]

You Aub's should be ashamed of yourself for questioning the bammers. $abear is the greatest and everyone knows it. H was 6-6 last year and lost to LA MO but that is irrelevant-he is the greatest. He lost to UAB while at LSU but that irrelevant-he is the greatest. He was a miserable failure at Miami but that is irrelevant-he is the greatest. He hires Dale Carnigie or whoever it was to motivate his players because he is the greatest. And if you Aubs think you have a chance in the bake sale or the magazine subscription selling contest, you have lost your mind.

Question for you. Would it be ok to you for your team to lose to UAB but then later go on to win a national championship, or would you rather beat Florida, and they win the national championship.

No the question is what does your rambling have to do with the topic at hand?

[Bama My Heart 5]

You Aub's should be ashamed of yourself for questioning the bammers. $abear is the greatest and everyone knows it. H was 6-6 last year and lost to LA MO but that is irrelevant-he is the greatest. He lost to UAB while at LSU but that irrelevant-he is the greatest. He was a miserable failure at Miami but that is irrelevant-he is the greatest. He hires Dale Carnigie or whoever it was to motivate his players because he is the greatest. And if you Aubs think you have a chance in the bake sale or the magazine subscription selling contest, you have lost your mind.

Question for you. Would it be ok to you for your team to lose to UAB but then later go on to win a national championship, or would you rather beat Florida, and they win the national championship.

No the question is what does your rambling have to do with the topic at hand?

Just answering your irrelevant rambling about our coach, and just wondered which you had rather have, but I think that you have answered my question.

[AUslug 1]

I wasn't the one rambling, and I would rather have a MNC but since it didn't happen in 2004 no point in bellyaching about it. Since the BCS started in 1998 Auburn hasn't lost to a non-BCS conference member while Bama has lost to Hawaii, ULM, UCF, LaTech, Southern Miss, and Northern Illinois. Auburn hasn't lost to a non-BCS memeber since 1991. Weren't you saying something about Bama being relevant again to football?

[Bama My Heart 5]

I wasn't the one rambling, and I would rather have a MNC but since it didn't happen in 2004 no point in bellyaching about it. Since the BCS started in 1998 Auburn hasn't lost to a non-BCS conference member while Bama has lost to Hawaii, ULM, UCF, LaTech, Southern Miss, and Northern Illinois. Auburn hasn't lost to a non-BCS memeber since 1991. Weren't you saying something about Bama being relevant again to football?

I guess it just depends on what your idea of relevance is.

[AUslug 1]

My idea of relevance is doing something, anything which Bama hasn't done since 1999.

[AUBURNJAC 53]

BOO-YA! Ha ha ha ha!!!!!!!!! I love it when people get into pissing contests on here and someone says something like that! How can you possibly come back from that one Bama my heart?

[weagle251 1]

I guess it just depends on what your idea of relevance is.

If by "relevant" you mean they field a team, belong to a big conference, recruit players, and have the potential to make a BCS bowl game even with a loss or two, then sure Bama's relevant. So is Vandy.

If by "relevant" you mean one of the elite teams of the conference... err, no. Sportswriters keep trying to predict that Bama will come back, because they figure eventually they'll get it right. They figure that some combination of name recognition, rabid fanbase, nearly out of control boosters, and big name coaching hires is going to eventually pay off. Why shouldn't they? It's worked so well for South Carolina. They do the same thing with Notre Dame, but at least ND has made some BCS appearances while perpetuating their sham. You want to think that your team is special, and that MNC's for you are just foregone conclusions if you just wait long enough (kind of like waiting for that family swamp land to eventually appreciate, yes?). You don't seem to realize the game has passed you by while you've wallowed in your Got 12 shirts, Moore prints, and Bear memorabilia, and now you're having to play catch up. You want to say that you're still relevant and you've never left the nat'l stage, but recognize that someone has to be gone for a while before they can be considered "Back".

Okay, after that. I will say that whoever is responsible for setting up these neutral field one-shots for Bama against respectable competition is a genius, and I think it's a great move for them to try and imprint their name back on the national consciousness in a positive way. EDIT: Well, if they can actually win one, that is.

[Bama My Heart 5]

I guess it just depends on what your idea of relevance is.

If by "relevant" you mean they field a team, belong to a big conference, recruit players, and have the potential to make a BCS bowl game even with a loss or two, then sure Bama's relevant. So is Vandy.

If by "relevant" you mean one of the elite teams of the conference... err, no. Sportswriters keep trying to predict that Bama will come back, because they figure eventually they'll get it right. They figure that some combination of name recognition, rabid fanbase, nearly out of control boosters, and big name coaching hires is going to eventually pay off. Why shouldn't they? It's worked so well for South Carolina. They do the same thing with Notre Dame, but at least ND has made some BCS appearances while perpetuating their sham. You want to think that your team is special, and that MNC's for you are just foregone conclusions if you just wait long enough (kind of like waiting for that family swamp land to eventually appreciate, yes?). You don't seem to realize the game has passed you by while you've wallowed in your Got 12 shirts, Moore prints, and Bear memorabilia, and now you're having to play catch up. You want to say that you're still relevant and you've never left the nat'l stage, but recognize that someone has to be gone for a while before they can be considered "Back".

Just think about where Auburn would be today if a years ago no one would have considered them relevant.

Look at LSU, they were great, and then they went thru a period where they were not so great and now they have won 2 national championships in 5 years. I'm saying that we are relevant as long as we have fans that support our team, and want to see them on the field. We are relevant as long as magazines are even interested in our team. We proved to Tennessee last year that we were pretty relevant, consistant no, but relevant yes. No matter how many Auburn fans want to say that we are not, the rest of the country is not buying it.

[WarTiger 3,915]

I guess it just depends on what your idea of relevance is.

If by "relevant" you mean they field a team, belong to a big conference, recruit players, and have the potential to make a BCS bowl game even with a loss or two, then sure Bama's relevant. So is Vandy.

If by "relevant" you mean one of the elite teams of the conference... err, no. Sportswriters keep trying to predict that Bama will come back, because they figure eventually they'll get it right. They figure that some combination of name recognition, rabid fanbase, nearly out of control boosters, and big name coaching hires is going to eventually pay off. Why shouldn't they? It's worked so well for South Carolina. They do the same thing with Notre Dame, but at least ND has made some BCS appearances while perpetuating their sham. You want to think that your team is special, and that MNC's for you are just foregone conclusions if you just wait long enough (kind of like waiting for that family swamp land to eventually appreciate, yes?). You don't seem to realize the game has passed you by while you've wallowed in your Got 12 shirts, Moore prints, and Bear memorabilia, and now you're having to play catch up. You want to say that you're still relevant and you've never left the nat'l stage, but recognize that someone has to be gone for a while before they can be considered "Back".

Just think about where Auburn would be today if a years ago no one would have considered them relevant.

Look at LSU, they were great, and then they went thru a period where they were not so great and now they have won 2 national championships in 5 years. I'm saying that we are relevant as long as we have fans that support our team, and want to see them on the field. We are relevant as long as magazines are even interested in our team. We proved to Tennessee last year that we were pretty relevant, consistant no, but relevant yes. No matter how many Auburn fans want to say that we are not, the rest of the country is not buying it.

sorry but it takes more than one win to make you relevant. It seems the rest of the country realizes how irrelevant you are based on where you appear in all the preseason polls. I know, you will come back with how meaningless those are, but it is somewhat a testament to where your program is and what is thought of its "potential". Not very much.