La. Tech Postgame Numbers & Thoughts

[StatTiger 3,188]

You know there are high expectations when your team wins by 28, yet there are numerous concerns moving forward. Four games in and Auburn is 4-0 but that was expected to be the case before the 2014 season began. Auburn now moves into the heart of their schedule and we are about to see what this team is truly made of beginning this upcoming Saturday as the Tigers play host to visiting LSU. The defense is playing well but there are question marks concerning the offense and the kicking-game.

Coach Dameyune Craig was hoping for some of the Auburn receivers to step up other than Duke Williams and Sammie Coates before the season began, so it was a pleasant surprise to see senior Quan Bray make a statement against Louisiana Tech. He basically turned in a game-changing performance in what was a close ball game until he began to make his impact felt. His performance is what you wish seniors to deliver and he delivered in a big way. He recorded 3 touchdowns on the day and all three were needed to generate the separation Auburn needed to put away the Bulldogs.

Except for the injuries and a couple of big plays, the defense delivered another solid performance. Auburn continued to be sturdy on run-defense and came up with a couple of big turnovers. These are trends this season Auburn must continue to navigate through their upcoming beast of a schedule. The offense continued to sputter in the running game but at least came up with several big-plays, something they could not deliver against Kansas State. Gus Malzahn is still searching for Auburn to be more physical at the point of attack, which will be desperately needed in the next games.

Inside the Numbers...

• After beginning the season with a 100% conversion rate on third-downs during the first quarter of the first two games, Auburn has now gone 0 for 7 during the last two games during the first quarter. This slow start offense must be addressed.
  
• During the last 2 games, Cameron-Artis Payne and Corey Grant have rushed for an average of 3.77 yards per rush on 58 combined attempts.
  
• After giving up only 2 plays of 30-yards or more during the first 3 games, Auburn's defense surrendered 3 against La. Tech.
  
• Prior to Saturday's game against La. Tech, Quan Bray had 1 career offensive play of 30-yards or more (Miss State 2013). He recorded 2 such plays on offense against Louisiana Tech.
  
• In terms of consistency, here is the percentage of offensive plays of at least 5-yards through 4 games. 50.0% against Arkansas, 52.1% against San Jose State, 31.6% against Kansas State and 51.4% against La. Tech.
  
• Last season through 4 games, Auburn's offense gained at least 5-yards on 45.0% of their offensive snaps, while allowing the opponent to gain at least 5-yards on 44.0% of their snaps. This season the Auburn offense is hitting at 46.0% and the defense is at 37.1%.
  
• Louisiana Tech is the first team to gain more yards per play during the second-half than the first-half against the 2014 Auburn defense. For the season, Auburn has allowed 5.2 yards per play during the first-half and 3.8 yards per play during the second-half.
  
• Through 4 games, 52.4% of the snaps defended by the Auburn defense has been held to 2-yards or less. Last year through 4 games, it was 46.0%.
  
• Auburn currently gains at least 5-yards on first-down, 46.9% of the time. Last season through 4 games it was 45.6%. The 2013 offense closed out the last 10 games, gaining at least 5-yards on first-down, 53.7% of the time.
  
• Auburn has 16 impact run-plays and 22 impact-pass plays through 4 games. Last season it was 13 run-lays and 17 pass-plays through the first 4 games of the season.
  
• Nick Marshall has converted 48.2 percent on third-down, throwing the football this season. Last year through 4 games it was 34.5 percent.
  
• Last season through 4 games the Auburn offense began an offensive possession on the opponent's side of the field, 5.7% of the time. This season it is up to 18.4%, which will be a major factor for success if this continues. Auburn has scored 40% of the time beginning a possession on their side of the field and 89% on the opponent's side of the field.
  
• Last season the Auburn defense finished the season ranked No. 62 in pass-efficiency defense. This season they are currently No. 24 nationally.
  
• Nick Marshall is currently 11 of 32 (34.4%) throwing beyond 10-yards of the line of scrimmage. Jeremy Johnson is 9 of 12 (75.0%).
  
• 43.0% of Cameron Artis-Payne's carries have netted at least 5-yards and 12.8% have gone for at least 10-yards. Tre Mason through 4 games hit 5-yards 46.2% of the time and 10-yards or more 13.8% of the time.
  
• Auburn run-defense has allowed 3.16 yards per rush during the first-half and 1.95 yards during the second-half.
  
• Of Auburn's 24 scoring drives this season, 20 of them have involved at least 1 impact play during the possession.
  
• This season facing 2-yards or less to convert, Auburn's offense is 19 of 23 running he football (82.6%). Last season through 4 games it was 20 of 26 (76.9%) and 82.9% for the entire season.
  
• 62.2% of Auburn's offensive snaps have been part of a scoring drive. Only 26.2% of the opponent's snaps have been part of a scoring drive. Last season through 4 games it was 49.5% on offense and 33.1% on defense.
  

Moving forward...

There is plenty of concern by Auburn fans about the offense and some of it is clearly valid. It all starts up front with the offensive line as well as perimeter blocking. Production on first down has slightly declined this season, which is the origin of the subsequent offensive woes. Last season Auburn averaged 6.7 yards per play, running the ball on first down. This season it is 5.6 yards, which is still respectable but not as dominating as 2013. The primary concern in my opinion is the lack of production during the first quarter of the last 2 games. A slow start to Gus Malzahn's offense is rarely a good sign and something the Tigers must address with LSU coming to town this Saturday.

The good news is that the defense is playing well enough to keep Auburn in every game. It's no longer that feeling of having to score at least 30 points every game to have an opportunity to win. Ellis Johnson's defensive unit has made major strides this season and are obviously way ahead of the 2013 version during the first 4 games of the season. Tackling is much better and the Tigers are forcing more turnovers. Run-defense has been solid but they still lack a consistent pass-rush without blitzing.

With that being said, the improvement on the defensive side of the football makes up for the inconsistency on the offensive side. Overall, Auburn is still a very dangerous team, capable of beating anyone on their current schedule. As fans we would be more excited about the prospects of the remainder of the season if the offense was hitting on all cylinders. Regardless of the sputtering moments on offense the past two weeks, there is still valid reasons to be excited about the unit's potential. There is still plenty of talent in a system designed to generate explosive plays.

Only time will tell if this team can live up to its potential but I expect plenty of excitement as we witness the growth of the 2014 Auburn Tigers. Is this a team of championship quality? I still believe so but the schedule will severely test this Auburn team more so than the 2013 squad. Keep the faith and watch our young men compete to be the best in the conference once again.

War Eagle!

[TexasTiger 12,835]

Good balanced analysis, as usual, Stat.

[RunInRed 16,404]

Some of your best work yet ... excellent perspective.

[SumterAubie 3,031]

In my opinion the quality of our opponent has dictated the quality of our play. Now that we are stepping up in class I expect the product on the field to do the same.

[AURex 1,994]

As always, thanks Stat for the data-based posts. Last year, Auburn's first 4 games included pass-happy Washington State, Mississippi State as well as the loss to LSU. So it is interesting to compare this year's effort to last year's during the same span of time.

That said, there are some significant differences. First of all, last year, the team was learning on the job. The defense had never played the CEJ defensive scheme, and Malzahn was still looking for playmakers and a playbook that would work for the team. This year, he returned a championship QB and a lot of experience on the offense -- players who were already familiar with the playbook and the techniques expected of them. So it is not a surprise to see some statistical areas in which this year's team is a littke better than last year's team.

The same can be said of the defense. With a lot of returning players who were already familiar with the defensive scheme of CEJ, and with game experience, we would expect the defense to be better than it was last year. Yes, the loss of Dee Ford and Nosa Eguea, then Lawson and now Whitehead, have hurt. Yet, most of the players backing them up have experience in the CEJ scheme. It's really great to see them doing well.

So the concern is why the offense has not made equally large strides. All the major players, with the exception of Duke Williams, played in the offense last year. They have game experience. Nick Marshall is no better at passing the ball than last year, but no worse, so that is not an explanation for the sputtering offense. CAP and Grant are in their familiar roles. Was the loss of Robinson, Prosch and then Kozan really so significant to explain the current situation? Or is it a mental/motivational issue?

Personally, I am not surprised at the defensive strategies that are now being used to slow Auburn down. Emphasis is on stopping the big gains that came on the edges last year. The interior defensive players of our opponents are able to deal with the Auburn offensive line, which has not yet come together. By slowing down the running game, it forces Auburn into a passing game. That's certainly not the kind of game CGM wants, becauze he is a run-first coach. It's also not what Auburn is good at.

Auburn has looked better the first 4 games this season than it did during the first 4 games last season. But Auburn lost to LSU last year, and we can expect LSU to provide a much more serious challenge this year than the teams faced so far. The positive is that the Auburn defense is better than it was last year. Still, LSU has proven that it can score lots of points in spurts, which beat Wisconsin and almost overcame the MSU lead. Has the Auburn defense improved enough to thwart an LSU rally, given the latest spate of injuries?

Other than Nick Marshall's running, the offense has been less explosive than might be expected after a year in the system and a lot more experience by the offensive players. The passing game has looked spectacular in moments, but overall it doesn't yet strike fear in the heart of opponents. I expect LSU to concentrate defensively on shutting down the Auburn running game, and to do that pretty effectively, unless NM can demonstrate convincingly early in the game that he can tear them up passing the ball.

Overall, I'm really pleased how much better the defense has played this year. Like a lot of fans, I'm concerned about the offense and am hoping that they will step up this next Saturday and play the way everyone has hoped.

[AuburnSpider 2]

The O line has got to develop a nasty streak. They play well at times but have been handled effectively on more than a few drives by this years lesser opponents. Get mean quick or I'm afraid this years team will get the ALS bucket challenge reality treatment

[McLoofus 35,182]

As always, thanks Stat for the data-based posts. Last year, Auburn's first 4 games included pass-happy Washington State, Mississippi State as well as the loss to LSU. So it is interesting to compare this year's effort to last year's during the same span of time.

That said, there are some significant differences. First of all, last year, the team was learning on the job. The defense had never played the CEJ defensive scheme, and Malzahn was still looking for playmakers and a playbook that would work for the team. This year, he returned a championship QB and a lot of experience on the offense -- players who were already familiar with the playbook and the techniques expected of them. So it is not a surprise to see some statistical areas in which this year's team is a littke better than last year's team.

The same can be said of the defense. With a lot of returning players who were already familiar with the defensive scheme of CEJ, and with game experience, we would expect the defense to be better than it was last year. Yes, the loss of Dee Ford and Nosa Eguea, then Lawson and now Whitehead, have hurt. Yet, most of the players backing them up have experience in the CEJ scheme. It's really great to see them doing well.

So the concern is why the offense has not made equally large strides. All the major players, with the exception of Duke Williams, played in the offense last year. They have game experience. Nick Marshall is no better at passing the ball than last year, but no worse, so that is not an explanation for the sputtering offense. CAP and Grant are in their familiar roles. Was the loss of Robinson, Prosch and then Kozan really so significant to explain the current situation? Or is it a mental/motivational issue?

Personally, I am not surprised at the defensive strategies that are now being used to slow Auburn down. Emphasis is on stopping the big gains that came on the edges last year. The interior defensive players of our opponents are able to deal with the Auburn offensive line, which has not yet come together. By slowing down the running game, it forces Auburn into a passing game. That's certainly not the kind of game CGM wants, becauze he is a run-first coach. It's also not what Auburn is good at.

Auburn has looked better the first 4 games this season than it did during the first 4 games last season. But Auburn lost to LSU last year, and we can expect LSU to provide a much more serious challenge this year than the teams faced so far. The positive is that the Auburn defense is better than it was last year. Still, LSU has proven that it can score lots of points in spurts, which beat Wisconsin and almost overcame the MSU lead. Has the Auburn defense improved enough to thwart an LSU rally, given the latest spate of injuries?

Other than Nick Marshall's running, the offense has been less explosive than might be expected after a year in the system and a lot more experience by the offensive players. The passing game has looked spectacular in moments, but overall it doesn't yet strike fear in the heart of opponents. I expect LSU to concentrate defensively on shutting down the Auburn running game, and to do that pretty effectively, unless NM can demonstrate convincingly early in the game that he can tear them up passing the ball.

Overall, I'm really pleased how much better the defense has played this year. Like a lot of fans, I'm concerned about the offense and am hoping that they will step up this next Saturday and play the way everyone has hoped.

All valid thoughts, but I'll offer a couple thoughts in return:

-Marshall hasn't been keeping it nearly as much on the zone read plays as he did last season. Teams have been selling out on the RB. We saw Nick keep it a little more against La Tech and, voila, some creases opened up for the RBs. That's how I interpreted it anyway; I certainly stand to be corrected by some more competent X&O folks. But I think we'll see that open up more as we get into the meat of the schedule.

-Yes, missing Kozan and Robinson really is that big of a deal IMO. One or the other probably would've been a lot more manageable. I believe I heard mention of Coleman in particular getting called out by Grimes for missed assignments, but I might be overstating things.

-We're trying out a LB at HB. That tells you how much we're missing Prosch right now.

I do wish that Nick had made more progress as a passer. Yes, he's clutch. Yes, he's a winner. Yes, the guys believe in him. Yes, there are drops. Yes, his footwork has improved. He still doesn't throw the ball much more accurately than last year, if at all. Maybe it will come.