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Bush Resurgence

DKW 86

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Mon Oct 18, 2004

Why The Bush Poll Resurgence?

On the heels of the first debate with John Kerry, all the momentum sustained by the Bush campaign since the Republican National Convention seemed to have fizzled like a dud firework. After weeks of double-digit poll leads, the President suddenly found himself tied, then decidedly behind, Kerry in the national polling. Although most of the "battleground states" which went Bush-"red" remained so, their leads were shrinking. John Kerry seemingly had enough momentum, and, urged on with massive assistance from the mainstream media, who've gone from mere bias to outright full-bore political campaigning (ramming "objective journalism" into the literary toilet). Mr. Bush seemed to be foundering, on the verge of losing the election.

Then, over a week ago, things startlingly began to change. At first all seemed the same - a snap Gallup Poll "declared" that Kerry won the third debate by almost the same margin as the decidedly Kerry-winning first one (56-38 percent). Though only a moron or mainstream reporter could see it differently, the last two debates were far more even in reality, than the first, which frankly was a Bush disaster. Yet, despite the constant, unrelenting media barrage of "Kerry wins debates", the polls started shifting slowly but gradually back again. By two weeks before the election, the President has gained back almost all of the losses he had, in virtually all of the major polls; furthermore some polls now show a definite if narrow Bush lead for the first time ever in the election. Clearly the President has seized the campaign momentum again.

So what happened? Why did things markedly reverse themselves when there seemed to be nothing outrightly different? Ah, well this is where those who get paid way, way too much to speculate on these political doings (I'm not one of them!) "earn" their cushy living. Nevertheless, I work for food, and so here are a few of my speculations:

Iraq overstated: Of course the war continues to be a cause for concern and attention. But not as much as it did. Although Kerry seemed to score numerous points in this one during the debates (mostly because the President appeared puzzled and clueless in his inability to articulate powerful, snap answers at his disposal), in fact the American public has put Iraq on a back burner. A recent Gallup Poll reported that only 22 percent of Americans view the war in Iraq - and all its associated issues (WMD's, links to terror, etc.) - as the "main issue in the election". With the recent counterattacks on Fallujah, Americans do appear to believe that the war is being won, despite the media clamoring of the opposite. Barring any serious disaster in Iraq for the next two weeks, this issue will remain a "back burner" one to Americans; repeated hitting on "wrong war, wrong time, blah blah blah" by Kerry is falling on an increasing number of deaf ears.

Domestic tranquility: Though Democrats usually score higher (and are even this year) on domestic/economic issues, this is an area that, simply put, Kerry has little on which to stand. The third debate illustrated how fundamentally sound the economy is, with job creation, business stimulation, and favorable interest rates the current condition. The only supposed "vulnerable" issue - domestic health care - is a cause of concern for a whopping nine percent of Americans; i.e. no one cares, or at least not enough to matter (I'm always puzzled why Democrats keep harping on this issue which traditionally has been as dead as the potential patient who would enroll in this socialist health mess, should it come to fruition). Add to the economic good news the unmistakable, inarguable fact that our homeland security, despite numerous alarmists crying "wolf", is working more than it isn't. Yes, there are border issues, concerns about "dirty bombs" and small nuclear devices, bioterror weapons, etc., but the fact is that under Tom Ridge a lot more has been shored up in our ability to keep a terror attack out of this country than has caused increased risk. In fact, most Americans have actually expected an attack by now, and the fact that it hasn't happened has been translated into credit for the President's policies. We know we're never completely safe, but Americans seem to have refocused after the debates on real results rather than Kerry's "I'll do everything for everyone" empty-promises-without-plans approach.

Sure Kerry "won", but so what?: Kerry scored with people, who seemed to separate the act of debating from the substance of debating. After the first debate, Bush clearly was in trouble, as the appearance was that Kerry was in more command of Bush's issues than the President. But this was more a lack of coherent Bush responses than of Kerry's "brilliance" (though again, the mainstream media would disagree). Once Bush got some rest(!) and came out much more coherent, focused, and quick on his feet in the latter two debates, the American public was reassured that Mr. Bush was indeed in command of the main issues. Kerry may have articulated empty rhetoric better, but Americans correctly compartmentalized his effective debate style from his actual ability to articulate anything of substance should he become president.

Persecuted President: This one makes me particularly happy, because it's directly opposite from its articulators' franitc, drooling, desperate intentions. Between idiot-pundits like Michael Moore, to the now-laughable mainstream newspapers and television channels, it's been a no holds barred assault on virtually everything George W. Bush. The instances of how Mr. Bush has been portrayed as a lying, comtemptable, evil man, as well as the actual content of reporting (slanted to leave out the "whole story" and highlight the portions potentially hurtful to the President), even organized, illegal "slam" campaigns by political and media groups, have actually been so numerous, so pointed, and so vindictive that Americans are beginning to have enough of it. Familiarity breeds contempt, but in this case the contempt is beginning to play out in the form of a sympathetic admiration for the President, who, after all, is guiding the country in the right direction while maintaining a calm nobility. It's said that true character emerges from adversity, and the President's character has emerged the past few weeks as the campaign sleaze has stepped up - and people are liking it.

"That remark": Finally, John Kerry has time and again proven himself capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, and he's done so again. Proving how out of touch he is with the sentiments of most Americans, who don't live in his priveledged world where personal insults and rude transgressions are met with yes mens' approval, Kerry went over the line in the third debate with his comments on how the Cheneys' daughter, Mary, regards her homosexuality (thank you, Mr, Kreskin Kerry). Attempting to "explain" how homosexuality is not a "choice" (by the way thanks again, "Dr." Kerry, who must have been studying genetics treatises while singlehandedly saving 35 Swiftees in 1971), he clearly went over the line by using Mary Cheney as a personal example. A weak defense that "well, the Cheneys did it first" was of course met with the rational, common sense retort that you as the parent are free to talk about your family in contexts that the non-parent isn't. Americans were offended by this lack of decorum as well as (yet again) puzzled at the logic (add to this Teresa's "unique" outlook on life and you're looking at two borderline kooks). This was a moment that the well-knitted fabric of "John Kerry, in touch humanitarian" was ripped open to expose behind it "John Kerry, rude, boorish narcissist" with little understanding of the rules of engagement that operate in most Americans' daily lives.

There are other reasons of course, and with the last two weeks to endure before the election, the big guns ("October surprises") are possibly looming. But the good news for Republicans, conservatives, and those who believe the current course is the right one is that Mr. Kerry seems to have lost any ground he gained. Could Americans actually be thinking about what they're hearing, and putting it in the proper context?

Maybe someone should take a poll to see.

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This is only a tool used by the liberal pollsters to fool the conservative voters and make us think we don't have to get out and vote. Don't be fooled!!!!! VOTE early and often, just like the demoncrats do!!!!!

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