Tough road ahead for Auburn

[StatTiger 3,188]

Throughout this season, I have kept track of our yardage and points compared to what our opponents have allowed or gained during the season. For example, Mississippi State has averaged 17 pts per game while allowing 26 pts per game. We defeated MSU, 43-14 so we were +17 in scoring offense and –3 in scoring defense. In our last two conference games, we struggled despite finishing both games with convincing scoring margins. With this in mind, I broke down our SEC schedule into two seasons of 3-games each. The first three SEC games ( MSU, LSU and UT ) vs. the last three SEC games ( Ark, UK and Ole Miss ). Look at the following scoring and yardage trends.

Offensive Scoring:

First 3 SEC Games: +8 pts

Last 3 SEC Games: +11.7 pts

Our scoring margin has actually increased. In our last 3 SEC games, we are scoring 11.7 more points per game than what our opponents have allowed all season.

Rush Offense:

First 3 SEC Games: +54.3 yards

Last 3 SEC Games: +26.7 yards

Though we continue to rush for more yards than what our opponents normally allow, it has dropped by nearly 28-yards.

Pass Offense:

First 3 SEC Games: +14.3 yards

Last 3 SEC Games: +8 yards

Like the running game, our pass offense has dropped off in the last 3 SEC Games.

Total Offense:

First 3 SEC Games: +68.6 yards

Last 3 SEC Games: +34.7 yards

Overall, our total offensive production has dropped by 34-yards in our last 3 SEC games.

Scoring Defense:

First 3 SEC Games: -13.3 pts

Last 3 SEC Games: -7.7 pts

We were holding our SEC opponents to 13 pts less than what they were averaging but it has now dropped to approx. 8 pts less.

Rush Defense:

First 3 SEC Games: -66 yards

Last 3 SEC Games: -39 yards

Once again, our opponents are becoming more productive with their running game in the last 3 SEC games.

Pass Defense:

First 3 SEC Games: -9.3 yards

Last 3 SEC Games: -11.3 yards

We are actually doing better on pass defense in our last 3 games, though it’s a minimal improvement.

Total Defense:

First 3 SEC Games: -75.3 yards

Last 3 SEC Games: -50.3 yards

Like our offense, the defense has dropped off in our last 3 SEC games. As the above data reveals, Auburn has dropped in six of eight categories during the last 3 SEC Games. I see two distinct possibilities. As the season has progressed, our opponents have become more familiar with our offensive and defensive schemes. Coach Tuberville also pointed out that our team was running on fumes against Ole Miss and Auburn’s extra week to prepare for UGA will help get our legs back. Despite the decline in averages, we are still playing very well. Obviously, the quality of our remaining opponents and our drop in overall production should result in some very close ball games to close out the regular season. As for the Georgia game, based on our current scoring margins and trends, Auburn should defeat Georgia by 7.

WDE

[WarTim 3,457]

I would gladly take a 7 point win, right now, today, sign me up ! ! !

[sportwareagle 0]

I'll also take that any day!!!! Please just give me a 7 point win and I will be more than happy!!!!

[Tigerwalkin 2]

Also, you have to factor in that our second, third, and fourth string players have played a lot of the second half. Especially, during UK and ARK games.

[AU4Ever 0]

The 1-pt win against LSU ended up as a W for us and a L for them. I'd take a 1 pt win against UGA.

[War Eagle 96 10]

Also, you have to factor in that our second, third, and fourth string players have played a lot of the second half.  Especially, during UK and ARK games. 

117936[/snapback]

Good pernt.

[TrueTiger 0]

Great stats again..

Thanks..

[cadillacattack 0]

they live with the reality that each successive game provides more film to the successive opponent ....... familiarity.

I'm guessing CAB has a few more tricks remaining in the bag

[SCWarEagle 4]

Oops. Messed up.

[SCWarEagle 4]

I agree that we played some scrubs against Ark. and UK, and that''s not factored in. But I'll take the 7-point win.