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Auburn vs Arky Score Prediction


augolf1716

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Okay, here it goes.

Arky wins the coin toss, defers. Kick is touchback, AU starts at 25. 1st down, dive play to CAP for 2 yards. 2nd down, JJ throws a pass, intercepted, pick 6. One minute into the game, Arky leads 0-7. Arky kicks off, touchback, AU starts at 25. 1st down, dive play to CAP for 2 yards. 2nd down, JJ throws a pass complete for 5 yards. 3rd down, jet sweep, Corey takes it to the house. Score tied 7-7. AU kicks off, returned to the 28. Gus looks at Ellis and says "I want tht ball back." Ellis says " yes sir."

Final score AU 56- Arky 7

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Auburn 62

Ark 16

It should be 66 for Auburn, but we are done in by our kicking game, missing an extra point and our only fg attempt. This board erupts with doomsayers saying we will never make it through our schedule with such a shaky kicker.

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SEC Now "Bold Predictions" sign-off today:

Matt Stinchcomb:

"Maybe it doesn't take a prayer for [Auburn] to beat Arkansas, but I think it goes down to the wire yet again vs. the Razorbacks."

"Too many distractions with some of the suspensions."

"All of that adds up to a very good opportunity for Bret Bielema (sp?) who very narrowly missed an opportunity to beat LSU last year - the only team incidentally to beat Auburn during the regular season."

Dari Nowkhah:

"I think Arkansas leads at halftime saturday and has the ball with a chance to win it late in the 4th and then I'll leave it at that."

So.

Their bold predictions involve transitive loss comparisons from last year.

I'm not moved.

I just thought I'd throw that in there - not as whining about mediots, but just as a preface to:

I worry our defense comes out slow. But the more I see of our games against good defenses last year and how we found our offensive identity and stuck with it... "damn the torpedoes" and the more I think about an off-season of perfecting our craft...

We're not going to light it up in the air this Saturday.

There will be passing, but we will remain a running team until someone demonstrates they can stop us.

Arky won't.

WE will actually control the ball. Our hurry-up is not necessarily starting the play fast, but just getting to the line fast and making them wait for the play to start.

35-14 sounds good. I'll go with 35-20 because they might squeak out some field goals vs. the bend-but-don't-break D.

But then, we covered the spread in almost every game last year, right? Ugh.

I don't know.

Someone give me a job on TV!

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Auburn 62

Ark 16

It should be 66 for Auburn, but we are done in by our kicking game, missing an extra point and our only fg attempt. This board erupts with doomsayers saying we will never make it through our schedule with such a shaky kicker.

i see that the coaches have a lot of trust in carlson's skills but dang, i sure hope they make sure his legs get enough rest
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Auburn 35

Arky 31

Hate that I think it will be this close and hope Im dead wrong, big time wrong, super wrong but I have a feeling we come out a little slow and have to struggle to win. Not reflective of the rest of the season as I think we will find our rythym as the season goes along but if its by 1 or 40 I dont care as long as we are 1-0 at the end of it.

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Auburn 62

Ark 16

It should be 66 for Auburn, but we are done in by our kicking game, missing an extra point and our only fg attempt. This board erupts with doomsayers saying we will never make it through our schedule with such a shaky kicker.

i see that the coaches have a lot of trust in carlson's skills but dang, i sure hope they make sure his legs get enough rest

See, it's starting already! :poke:

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like the Tennessee game last year, 55-23. side note , if au D can average giving up 20 or less this season we have a great shot at winning it all .

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I have to stand by my we average 10 plays a score. If we have 80 plays, then

80/10=8

5 TD

3 FG

Auburn = 44

Arkansas = 24

Think Arkansas keeps it close first half. After that for Arkansas it will be "Katie bar the door" !

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I ran a little quick analysis on these predictions.

HIGHAU 63 LOWAU 20 HIGHAK 38 LOWAK 0 HIGHDIF 55 LOWDIF 4

It looks like we're getting more confident as time goes on. A nine obs rolling average of point spreads resulted in a linear trend line with a slope of 1.61%

Point differential:

Column1 Mean 26.21556 Standard Error 0.429058 Median 26.44444 Mode 25.77778 Standard Deviation 3.033899 Sample Variance 9.20454 Kurtosis 0.005766 Skewness -0.29011 Range 13.66667 Minimum 19.55556 Maximum 33.22222 Sum 1310.778 Count 50

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Tigers 48- Hogs 24

Arkansas scores twice in 4th quarter (10pts) after Auburn dumbs down game. While fleshing out all sorts of different depth packages, against a live practice team.

Afterward.... Big Bret stops by Auburn Waffle House in hopes of finding the secret of to how beat Gus. Where he slips while trying to get numbers and logic from the men room walls. And splat, bounce, goes the head Upon rising and while lifting his gaze upward, he sees the light a decides to go HUNH. As he reads Weeman's quote from 2013, where on the under side of a toilet seat it read... if you can't beat'em join em. (Service station - Nick). Look for both to start going real quick in 2015.

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The guys at WhatIfSports have predicted Arky to win 47-27 based on thousands of models. I am curious as to what exactly those models were.

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The guys at WhatIfSports have predicted Arky to win 47-27 based on thousands of models. I am curious as to what exactly those models were.

There may have been one simulation with that score, but "the Auburn Tigers win 73.3% of the time by an average score of 26.8-17.1." FYI, they only simulate most games 101 times during the season.

Their history is not too terribly accurate, judging from a quick scan of a few games I remember. It would be interesting to see some analysis of their overall accuracy.

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They're 1-2 on last night's SEC games... but barely picked Ole Miss to win.

Other games, they were 8-1 but not sure how many of those games were supposed to be competitive.

Small sample, but... there you go.

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The guys at WhatIfSports have predicted Arky to win 47-27 based on thousands of models. I am curious as to what exactly those models were.

There may have been one simulation with that score, but "the Auburn Tigers win 73.3% of the time by an average score of 26.8-17.1." FYI, they only simulate most games 101 times during the season.

Their history is not too terribly accurate, judging from a quick scan of a few games I remember. It would be interesting to see some analysis of their overall accuracy.

I was just repeating what FOX Sports had posted on our game page. Odd they used the score I mentioned in this case.

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